This is an interesting group for me. We’ve got a trio of long time prospects and two new faces from 2010. You’ll remember that we left #16 with Cody Stanley and start #15 with …
#15. Bryan Anderson
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 12, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 13
Player Comments -
Every year Anderson has to fight back the claim that he’s a bad defensive catcher. It’s probably a true assessment but it ignores his strengths and, when the Cardinals crown Matt Pagnozzi as a good defensive catcher, I don’t think he’s nearly as futile as he’s sometimes portrayed. With the potential for league average offense at a critical position and positional scarcity, he’d make a nice fit as a platoon player or backup catcher. I think he’s still got a little more upside than that but even I’m beginning to suffer from the familiarity of his name on prospect lists. – azruavatar
I still believe in Anderson to a limited extent, but I’m not sure the Cardinals still do. -Jeff Roman
#14. Nick Longmire
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 8, Jeff Roman – 19, erik – 18
Player Comments -
Longmire had a great 2010 effort at Batavia where he hit for power, average and drew walks all at impressive rates over 300 PAs. He’s got the potential to stick in centerfield defensively and I like the skillset he brings. The concern I have is whether a slightly long swing with an uppercut can be trimmed down to something quicker and able to cover all parts of the plate. - azruavatar
Longmire had only one season in the minor leagues, albeit a huge rookie season. If he continues to play this well, obviously he will vault up the rankings, but until then I will reserve judgment. – Jeff Roman
#13. Oscar Taveras
Age – 18
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 10, Jeff Roman – N/A, erik – 9
Player Comments -
Outside of Carlos Martinez (Matias), Oscar Taveras is the Latin prospect you’re most likely to hear about last year. He’s the classic toolsy player who projects well in all aspects of the game. At age 18 and with little baseball played on American soil, he’s also a huge risk. – azruavatar
Just as AZ said, Taveras is a high ceiling, low floor player and right now I believe more in the floor than the ceiling. Once again, I am taking the wait and see approach with Taveras. He was in my “just missed” list, so I’m not trying to snub him completely. For high upside players, I will need to see some certainty they will reach that upside barring significant injury. After another good season, Taveras is probably there. – Jeff Roman
#12. Daniel Descalso
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 17, Jeff Roman – 12, erik – 11
Player Comments -
Descalso is a solid prospect, but who may be coming close to running out of time. He will need another good season in Memphis to vault him up to St. Louis. His advantages are closeness to the majors and positional scarcity in St. Louis and in the system. - Jeff Roman
Descalso is another fringy player. He’s a contact hitter that doesn’t really have the kind of secondary skills — great defense, speed, plate discipline — to push him to the next level. In 500+ PAs at Memphis last year, he was slightly below average offensively. That’s not an indication of big things to come. – azruavatar
#11. Adam Reifer
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 18, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 16
Player Comments -
I love Reifer, in my eyes, he is a future high leverage reliever with high strikeout totals. – Jeff Roman
Reifer really deserves credit for improved results in 2010. He nearly halved his walk rate and cut down on the hits allowed as well. Both those rates are subject to high year to year variance in the sample sizes of a reliever but I’m inclined to give Reifer credit for the walk rate at the least. The point being is that 2010 was a high octane arm with good walk rates and good strikeout rates. I’m still a little wary of him relative to what makes a dominant reliever, but he’s the best combination of polish and potential this side of Eduardo Sanchez. – azruavatar
Entries (RSS)
I’m smoking the Reifer. We have right handed relievers stacked up and down the system. Looking for Mulligan to rebound in 2011 to trail up behind Reifer.
First off, love the lists guys. The only thing I don’t agree with is that in my head, I rank guys like O. Tavares higher because of his “ceiling”. But, to each their own right? And lastly, thank god our system is much better than last year. I’m dying to know where Matias/Martinez ends up on your list!
Another random question I’m going to throw out there is, has anyone heard anything at all lately about the plans for Cox next year? I would LOVE to see him given a shot at 2B! From what I have read/observed he could easily end up being a .280/20/90 guy…. and that would look pretty damn good at 2B. It’s not like the club values D at 2B the last couple of years anyways. No way in hell would he be any worse than Skippo at the keystone.
All indications are Zach Cox at 3B.
If Cox is slated for 3rd and Freese has full recovery (that he says he will have), where will Cox fit into the picture. Freese is very young and has put up good numbers. It seems that 2nd base is the weakest spot in the 2011 projected lineup, as noticed by nearly everyone that has written to this Future Redbirds site. Why don’t they give him a real chance to make that position for the Cardinals? Cox seems like he would have better range at second than he would have at 3rd and more time to throw the runner out at first. Does it mean that you are a good prospect for the Cardinals if you are selected to the 40 man roster? Should all the 40 man roster players make this list?
Cox projects as a better player than Freese. I think you have to view the situation as David being incumbent until Matt Carpenter or Zack Cox take the position from him. After that, you either trade someone or move someone to the bench. It’s probably a little too early to get caught up in Cox’s ultimate position.
I can see Freese in RF if another 3B prospect emerges and no one has established themselves there.
“Cox seems like he would have better range at second than he would have at 3rd and more time to throw the runner out at first.”
I don’t think I’ve ever heard any serious prospect evaluator say that about Zack Cox.
or any player
I see Anderson as a less athletic, not quite as good of catcher as Eli Marrero. Which isn’t bad considering Marrero stuck around for a while.
I have no problem with Laird being the back up, but if Molina went down with an injury I would like to see what Anderson could do for a bulk of the time.
If Eli Marrero had been left handed his value would have been higher as a catcher. That’s something about Anderson that one should not overlook. Eli could have stuck in the big league longer but didn’t want to catch anymore if memory serves.
Good point on LH.
Marrero also battled cancer durring while developing.
Please oh please let Anderson be better than Eli Marrero!!!!!! I have never seen worse clutch hitting. I mean I know that great players fail 7 out 10 times, but this guy couldn’t hit with a runner in scoring position if his life depended on it.
I’m surprised to see Jeff Roman rank Reifer so high when he was so low on a few of the players on the last list that were considered candidates to move to the bullpen in the future. I would understand this more if Hooker and Swagerty had PJ Walters type stuff but most reports have them possessing at least average fastballs with decent secondary offerings.
My guess is that he regards Reifer as real closer material, which isn’t the same as a bullpen arm. Taking an examples from earlier prospect lists, it’s like comparing Chris Perez to Jess Todd.
Yasss! Stoked to see the FRB list, I trust you guys more than most prospect mavens.
Jeff, I’d be interested to see your personal top 20. So far, it looks like it is wayyyy different from most people’s.
Man, I hope Longmire is for real. There is a real void in the system with regards to outfielders with legit power
Longmire was one of my fav picks of our 2010 draft. I see him as a RF and will have at least above avg skills across the board on D. I see him as an exciting player offensively as he can hit for HR power, gap power and just seems to have an excitement about how he approaches the game. I have him just sneaking in my personal Top 10. I just hope I am not jumping on the bandwagon too early.
In related news, RIP Austin Wilson. We hardly knew ye
Wow. The list gets more interesting. I’m pleased you think so highly of Longmire. He seems to have everything in terms of skillset if he can only continue to make good contact. I have a feeling that this year will go most of the way in determining what kind of prospect he is. If he can swing for a relatively high BA in class A the rest of his makeup will make him a top prospect.
I have Taveras and Descalso ranked a little higher which means that a sleeper, I think I know who, sneaks into your top ten.
I also think that you’re right ranking Reifer this high. I still hold out hope that he’ll be a very effective set up man in the majors.
Anderson is a sad story. I believe in emphasizing defense at catcher but he deserves more of a shot than he’s going to get with this team.
Thinking about Skip Schumaker at 2nd base is a bit like drinking at a bar full of so-so women. They more you think about Schumaker, the better Descalso looks (at the league minimum).
How So? Skip has 4 big league seasons and has a respectable top of the order career line of .291/.349, can play all 3 outfield spots and sub par second base defence.
Descalso, has never hit above .300 outside of springfield, has a minor league line of .276/.347, and can only play sub par second base defence, though probably a bit better than skip.
In fact, I think its the other way aroung. Once you see what the cards have developed the last few years at second (Descalso, Hoffpair), Skip doesn’t sound so bad. Though, i would like to see a better shortstop and Theriot move to second.
Did you see Schumaker play in 2010? Fangraphs rated him as -0.2 WAR, for which we paid him $2M. He’ll soon be on the wrong side of 30. He’s bad at 2B and getting worse, and unless he rebounds to a .750 OPS in 2011, he’s pretty much a disaster.
Schumaker had a career .757 OPS at AAA, and .754 at AA. Descalso’s comps are .741 and .917.
Yes. But apparantly you missed the 3 years prior. Are you saying that AA stats trumps major league stats? Just curous as to why you ignore skips first 3 seasons. I know this is a prospect sight but I still place value for success at the major league level.
Also a little unfair to compare AA stats. From what I read, Springfield is very much a hitters park. So can’t really compare Skip’s Tennessee stats as an equal comparison.
But as you posted, shu had a higher ops in AAA. If skip is a disster, descalso is probably a disaster as well. The upside is that skip has poven he could be an accaptable lead off guy. I risk the couple million on a proven player vs. a player who you hope will improve to that level at the major league.
I don’t see either guy being the long term answer and I don’t see enough from Descalso to just assume he will put up as good enough numbers as skip to justify saving a couple of million, especially if they can keep Descalso in memphis.
it will be interesting to see what the cards do with skip after this year. He would be an interesting arbitration situation.
FRB List so far gets the blood boiling! One thing that gets me excited every year is the hope of a new list of prospects. Recently until you hit the Top 5 it was hardly exciting for Cards Nation. This is the first year there are some exciting guys in the teens which gets me quite excited for our future and the prospect of the 2011 draft strategy going with more upside picks to build off what I consider a solid 2010 draft. I expect plenty of talent to slip in a very talented draft year and with depth in our system now I would expect more high ceiling picks.
To focus back on this list 3 of these guys gets me exciting: Longmire, Taveras and Riefer. I see a solid starting RF, a power armed closer and another exciting OF that has solid upside in those 3. With them are 2 guys that got a taste last year and both could have a chance to make solid contributions to the 2011 team. Looking forward to the rest of the list.
Further testimony as to the depth of our system can be found over at The Cardinal Nation.com where they’ve put a top forty list together. Although some choices are ultra long shots there are several guys listed in the thirties, e.g. Ottavino, Adams, Jackson, Stock etc. who I think have good shots to be major leaguers. In addition there are some young guys who I think are interesting who don’t even make that list. Johnathan Rodriguez, Roberto De La Cruz and Sam Tuivalala come to mind.
These latter guys are potentially high ceiling prospects who could vault into the top 20 pretty quickly.