The top of the Cardinals prospect lists will all be pitching heavy this year and ours is no exception. There’s some new faces following the jump and two of my particularly favorite prospects.
#10. Seth Blair
Age – 22
Stats (N/A)
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 19, Jeff Roman – 9, erik – 6
Player Comments -
Blair gets a little bit of the benefit of the doubt based on his 2010 draft position. That easily earned good will won’t last long. He will have to prove it going forward. - Jeff Roman
I actually had Swagerty 7 positions higher than Blair on my list. Blair’s fastball isn’t as impressive and his secondary stuff is more of a work in progress than I’d like for someone who has as many college starts as he does. Without a real dominant pitch much less a dominant second pitch, he looks like a back end starter. I’ll be following him closely in 2011 to see if it looks more like his 2008/2009 college seasons or the improved 2010 campaign. I get a bit nervous about pitchers who are highly rated because they have an assortment of pitches rather than a plus pitch. - azruavatar
#9. Joe Kelly
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 6, Jeff Roman – 15, erik – 12
Player Comments -
Kelly pitched well in Quad Cities this year and should continue to move through the Cardinals system. His high-effort delivery indicates a potential future move to the bullpen and a high-risk of a future injury. However, he continues to show the arsenal and high 90s fastball to make it work. He will climb the rankings if he can continue to start and continue to stay healthy. - Jeff Roman
I’m a big fan of Kelly. His fastball is electric when you see it in person. While his strikeout rates have been a bit tepid considering the level (low A ball) and his fastball, he doesn’t receive nearly the credit he should for being in the top 5 in groundballs in the Midwest League. Fun fact: In 130 professional innings, Kelly has allowed 3 HRs. The questions about whether he can stick as a starter are legitimate but, if he can, he’s behind only Carlos Martinez and Shelby Miller in terms of upside. – azruavatar
#8. Tyrell Jenkins
Age – 18
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 7, Jeff Roman – 10, erik – 10
Player Comments -
Jenkins is an athletic starter from the 2010 draft, who’s upside is as high as any Cardinal short of Miller, but has a lot of work to do to turn his project-ability and athleticism into a pitcher. He was a two-sport player in high school and will benefit with focusing solely on baseball. – Jeff Roman
Something of an unknown, Jenkins is as raw a pitchers as the Cardinals have drafted in my memory. He’s athletic and his fastball already resides in the low-90s. If you think the Cardinals have moved Miller slowly, wait until we watch Jenkins progression. This is also the type of player that can follow the Daryl Jones prospect list trajectory. He may stick around as a top prospect despite not showing much projection until it either all comes together or everyone finally gives up. – azruavatar
#7. Lance Lynn
Age – 24
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 11, Jeff Roman – 8, erik – 5
Player Comments -
Lynn continues to hang around, but with a less than stellar 2010, we have to wonder how long is prospect status will hang around as well. - Jeff Roman
Supporters of Lynn will point to his second half in Memphis last year as a sign of a resurgence and getting accustomed to the level of competition. The truth is that 2010 was his worst season yet by a pretty healthy margin. The increased HR rate isn’t a good thing to see and it’s accompanied by a decrease in groundballs. Lynn is only as effective as his command lacking the pure stuff to make up for missed location. The upside is something like Jeff Suppan and the floor is a pitcher who can’t stick in the majors. – azruavatar
#6. Matt Carpenter
Age – 25
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 3, Jeff Roman – 7, erik – 8
Player Comments -
Matt Carpenter had a break out 2010 and shows no indication of slowing down coming into 2011. If David Freese can’t man the Cardinals 3B long term, Carpenter will have the chance to make the spot his own. – Jeff Roman
I’ll come back to the same mantra with Matt Carpenter: he has the best plate discipline of anyone I’ve seen in the farm system since Luhnow started drafting. Carpenter doesn’t just draw walks but isn’t afraid to take pitches and wait for something that he can hit. The OBP isn’t predicated on HBP like Aaron Luna and it isn’t a function of his power, which is just average. Matt Carpenter’s ability to walk is a self contained one that should hold up as he advances to Memphis. He’ll stick at third though his defense is nothing special and he’ll hit for enough power to more than justify himself as an everyday player. I’m a huge believer in Carpenter both as a high floor player and someone who can be a solid regular on a MLB team. – azruavatar
Entries (RSS)
I keep seeing the term athletic applied to Jenkins and I guess I’m trying to figure out if that makes him a better pitching prospect? It may make him a better fielder eventually or baserunner, maybe it will translate into him being a good hitting pitcher eventually but is there some way it makes him actually throw the ball better? I assume that because he is young and raw and has some size that there is some hope that improved strength and mechanics might give him a couple more miles on his fastball, but does being an athlete really translate into being a better pitcher? Any examples out there?
Love the list. Thanks for your hard work guys!
I believe athleticism plays a big part in a raw player’s development due to increased agility and body control. Agility makes it easier to repeat and learn sound mechanics, and repetition leads to better control. Even though a lot of pitchers could throw harder if they had a longer pitching motion, they compact it for better control. Greater athleticism often leads to the ability to consistently repeat a longer motion, and therefore have enough control to justify the increased velocity.
Agree with you both on all of these comments, and thanks for the hard work.
Regarding Blair, I look at him as more of a Lance Lynn or PJ Walters type that could possibly fill in someday, but isn’t really anything to be excited about.
When Freezy pops ankels melt again this year, I’d love to see Carpenter come up and I think he would be a great fit in the 2 hole (assuming TLR doesn’t wise up and put Berkman there) in the order in front of 4 guys that could drive him in. Freezy pop might be best suited for that role too if TLR decides not to put Berkman there, which I think he should.
If we’re going to do the “pitcher hits 8th” thing again, putting at Berkman at 2 makes all the sense in the world, with our “two leadoff hitters” then 4 solid RBI guys to drive them in. Any recent news about what the thoughts are on this? You guys on board with my thinking?
What about Blair’s pitching reminds you of PJ Walters? Blair can throw mid-nineties heat and was a supplemental 1st rounder. Scoutniks like John Sickels rate him a future No. 3 starter (Sickels, fwiw, has him as the No. 5 prospect for the Cards). It’s true that Blair and Walters are both white and right-handed but the similarities seem to run out after that.
What makes you think Carpenter will hit for enough power to become a regular? Didn’t show power in 2009 and only hit 12 HRs this year in the Texas League which is a notoriously hitter happy league.
He’ll hit for enough power combined with his OBP. He had a .172 ISO which isn’t great but it’s servicable. I don’t think he hits more than 15HRs in the bigs and is more like a 10HR guy.
Agree with AZ, and Freezy pop won’t hit much more than 15 either. I basically see them as being the same player. Carp 2.0′s real value is in his OBP and patience at the plate.
Which makes me wonder why the organization doesn’t at least try Cox @ 2B initially. We have a fallback option in place for Freese in the high minors in Carpenter. 2B is still a black hole, zombieland where the baseball gods allow only Aaron Miles and Skip Shoemaker to tread. Knocking Carpenter’s power @ 3B vis a vis Cox doesn’t make a lot of sense. Is Cox going to be a guy who hits appreciably more than 15 HRs in the majors? I like Daniel Descalso but see him more as a utility IF in the MLB. I’ll take him at 2B over Skip but would prefer a bat more like that which Cox profiles to be at 2B.
second base is easier to fill than 3rd. Heck, the cards put an OF there and won a division title. No need for a rush move on cox who still has some time. Freeze could flop and carp could stall out. You never know.
I also think fans tend to look down on prospects who are not projected to be all-stars. No Carp is not a world beater, but having the potential to be a consistant bat at that base does have value. If he ends up as a Polonco 3rd baseman, that is still great.
Good stuff so far guys. The system certainly does seem to be regaining strength.
I don’t really understand two things on Jeff’s list:
1) Leaving Hooker off his top 20 citing his likely projection as a reliever then putting Seth Blair at 9. Blair is far from a sure thing as a starter as his command and offspeed pitches waver from start to start. Not too mention Hooker has made it to High A as a starter with nothing but success(though a good amount of it in the piggy back system).
2) Leaving Oscar Tavares off his top 20 citing him as a risky player then putting Tyrell Jenkins at 10. I agree that Tavares is risky but at this point Jenkins has a good fastball and athleticism but everything else needs a lot of work. At least Tavares has a great year in the Appy League on his resume and was called the best player in the league by one of the managers.
Always fun to read a Cardinal top 20 prospect list. Nice work!
I tend to agree with both of those placements of Jeff’s, but maybe for different reasons:
1. Hooker is a low-level starter whose future as in that role is murky at best. He’s been mostly a platoon pitcher in his pro career, and his 8 starts in Palm Beach (in which he averaged only 5 innings) is too small a sample size to make any definite judgments. Between Quad Cities and Palm Beach last season, he averaged only 4.2 innings per appearance. Such pitchers usually do not make top 20 lists, because they tend to have a high attrition rate when they get to the higher levels; Hooker did because of his breakout year (I’m a fan of Scott Schneider, but I’m not deluding myself that he belongs anywhere near the top 20 at this point, and Hooker had a far better experience in Palm Beach than he did). Meanwhile, Seth Blair has been drafted as a starter and most scouting reports do project him as a starter because of his three pitches and a possiblity of a fourth. Blair doesn’t rock anybody’s socks off, but there’s more of a foundation for him as a mid-rotation starter than Hooker. Plus, keep in mind that when considering new draftees in rankings, you have to weigh in how the player was ranked in the draft, and the fact is that Baseball America had Blair ranked 34th overall, which is something you can’t ignore.
2. Tyrell Jenkins was ranked by Keith Law at 23rd and by Baseball America at 43rd for last year’s draft, and has shown a ton of talent despite being very raw (that, and a 95-mph fastball). He’s risky because he is raw and has never concentrated on baseball, but he has a huge upside that is ace potential…the same kind of potentional that carried high school draftee Shelby Miller to the top of the Cardinals’ prospect lists last year. Jenkins, however, only reaches the back end of the top 10 because his rawness counterbalances his ceiling, which is why erik ranked Jenkins the same place as Jeff and azru ranked him three spots higher. On the other hand, Tavares is an Latin American prospect who had a good first season at the short-season Rookie league level. He’s risky because he’s young and we’re basing our rankings on a great 211 ABs at the lowest level of professional ball. We don’t know exactly what his projection, because he was a “found” player in Latin America with no real scouting reports following him, and what we do know falls under that dreaded small-sample qualification.
1) Blair’s lack of consistency when it comes to command and offspeed stuff mixed with his small frame have quite a few not completely sold on him as a starter. Keith Law mentioned that teams would likely view him as a reliever and put him at 62nd in his draft rankings.
At this point I don’t think he is more likely than Hooker to remain in the rotation. That is my main point. I see both as starters right now but I don’t see either as a guarantee to remain in the rotation.
BTW, in games that Hooker worked at least 5 innings(12 games) he was:
8-1, 1.27 ERA, 71.1 INN, 43 H, 10 ER, 15 BB, 72 K
In games that Hooker worked at least 6 innings(4 games) he was:
2-1, 0.69 ERA, 26.2 INN, 14 H, 7 BB, 27 K
Not huge samples but Hooker never really got knocked around late in games. His worst outing of the season came in his 2nd start in Palm Beach in which he gave up 6 ER in the 1st inning. He gave up the bulk of his runs this year in the early innings.
2) Tavares was an unknown but not so much anymore. The reviews and scouting reports have come out and they are as positive as Jenkins’. However, Tavares is the one with the pro level production while Jenkins has almost none. I just don’t see enough to seperate them 10+ spots. Just my opinion, though. I don’t mind putting Jenkins ahead of Tavares, though, because I realize some will think Jenkins has the better potential. That could easily turn out to be true. I just don’t see that much of a gap because of risk. Both are pretty risky prospects.
Good discussion.
1. I’m incredibly suspicious of small sample sizes, so stats in 4 games for Hooker means absolutely nothing to me. You cannot judge anything about a player’s future potential in 4 scant games. That was my point–he’s had only 8 games at the A+ level, and in those eight starts, he averaged only a bit more than 5 innings. About the only good thing you can take away from that is that there’s an indication of an upward trend of being able to do more, but it’s not an indication in itself that he’s true starter material, especially when he currently has only 2 pitches and has barely pitched starters innings.
Seth Blair is 6-2, 190 pounds. Hooker is 6-4, 185 pounds. They’re roughly the same size, so if Blair has a “small frame,” then Hooker does as well.
On Blair’s command problems–Indications are that his command issues improved last season as he worked on his delivery, which is why he finished with 109 SO and 29 BB in 106.1 innings. To be blunt, I consider his high pitch counts to be a concern, but one that has been overblown by Law, who also says in his scouting blurb that Blair has “the repertoire to start and should get that opportunity first.”
2. Again, small sample size. Any scouting report on Tavares is based on his 53 games in the Appy League. His pro production put an unknown on the map, but it doesn’t put him in the top 20 list for me yet because we really won’t see what his true potential is until after he puts in more time. Jenkins has had scouts following him for longer to judge his ability and stuff, which has been rated as potential ace material with power–and while people are excited by Tavares’ tools and potential, there’s a major element of the unknown in his evaluation. My point is that Tavares’ risk comes from the fact that most scouting reports are based on a small sample size and short-term production, while Jenkins’ risk comes from the fact he’s very raw and needs a long developmental time. I like what Tavares has to offer, but I won’t agree that it’s for real until he’s given time to develop (much like how a few people wouldn’t get excited about Matt Carpenter until he proved things at the proper level), and thus he’s back in the mix of highly interesting prospects for me. Jenkins has the raw ability to be an ace, but that rawness also adds an element of uncertainty of whether he can refine it. That’s why he lands in the midddle of the ranking–the talent definitely is there, it’s more of a matter if the player can develop it. With Tavares, I’m still waiting for confirmation on the potential MLB-level talent, like I am for Longmire.
Next year’s going to be fun (I hope) watching those two progress.
I see no difference in the scouting of Jenkins and Taveras. The rankings of both seem to be based on there physical skills and makeup and not numbers. Both to project to have a major league bodys. While Jenkins was dominating high schools, Taveras was dominating short season players. I ranked Taveras so high on the word of Luhnow who said he had the most upside of any player in our system.
1) 12 starts isn’t that small of a sample size. But anyways, those are the numbers we have to go by and they certainly don’t scream future reliever. Not when he is giving up a lot of runs early on in his starts rather than later.
As for Hooker’s repertoire, Azruvatar gave a very nice summary of it back in June after seeing him pitch. He noted a low to mid 90s fastball that maintained velocity for 5 innings, a sharp slider in the mid 80s, a functional changeup and a cut fastball. He’s more than just 2 pitches. He’s got about the same repertoire as Blair.
As for their size:
Here’s a pic of Deryk Hooker: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2705/4519324095_becacf16ba.jpg
Here’s a pic of Seth Blair: http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/263/204/SethBlair_display_image.jpg?1276867014
That 185 for Hooker is likely from 4 years ago when he was drafted. I’d be surprised if he hasn’t gained a pound since then. He looks like a big kid now. You aren’t going to convince me that they are roughly the same size. You could convince me that Blair’s size isn’t a hindrance to him starting, though(I probably believe that anyway haha).
But remember that I’m wondering why Hooker is more of a future reliever than Blair. So far nothing points to that.
Moving on to Blair’s command, I think you are confusing control for command. Command is the ability to hit spots and not leave pitches in the middle of the zone. 112 hits allowed in 106 innings at ASU last year isn’t a great indication that his command is good enough right now but it also doesn’t tell the whole story so I’ll leave it to the reports that say his command is still inconsistent.
2) 229 ABs really isn’t that small of a sample at all. I certainly say it’s a better sample to draw conclusions from than Jenkins’. The kid was playing against high schoolers, most of which will not play college baseball let alone sniff the minor leagues.
I’m sure Jenkins played in a few summer tournaments but you have to remember he also played football in high school and committed to Baylor to also play football so he likely didn’t dedicate himself to the tournaments as much as a baseball only guy.
You’ve got two great prospects with outstanding tools. One showed them off in professional baseball leading to positive reviews and the other showed them off in high school leading to positive reviews. I just don’t see there being a huge gap because of risk.
Tavares (even though a small sample size) at least has a sample size. Jenkins basically has nothing to go off of other than him facing HS hitters. I would never put Jenkins ahead of Tavares (not to say I’m not excited to follow Jenkins next year), but everyone has their different ideas for rankings.
Agree. I put Jenkins at the top of my second ten because his athleticism and upside are exciting. But even his scouting reports emphasize those factors rather than baseball specific abilities so I just can’t put him in the top ten. Same for Blair. Even his upside seems to be limited to a Lance Lynn type pitcher but without the professional track record. I also have a hard time predicting that Joe Kelly’s positives will trump whatever issues he has that have so far logged such uninspiring results. A guy like Taveras does have age, some notoriety from other sources such as BA and at least a short season track record on his side.
Anyway I think we do have a host of interesting prospects with varying positives and negatives and our lists will differ based on what criteria we emphasize.
I agree that Jenkins will move pretty slowly. But, now that it’s been written, I’m starting to wonder who slowly?
Can we expect him to be with Quad Cities this year or do you think they’ll start him in extended spring training and then move him up to ssA in July? (or June, whenever ss and rookie ball starts up)
I don’t think he sees QC this year.
I’d take that wager! :)
May not be a good day to wager with azru…he will probably be losing one on Friday over at VEB, so he may want to lay low for a bit
What’s the wager? (No money; nothing inappropriate.)
By elimination, I assume the top five will be Miller, Cox, Matias/Martinez, Sanchez and Craig, probably in that order. It’s interesting, however, that I had to sit down with a spreadsheet and actually work out who they’ll be, and I’m still not sure I got it right. For starters, where’s Tony Cruz, whose stock shot way up with his AFL performance? Or is he going to occupy one of the 1-5 slots, with Craig considered no longer a rookie/prospect? I thought Craig spent too much time on the major-league roster to qualify, yet I’ve seen him on most Cardinals prospects lists (spreadsheet at BP).
Aren’t you forgetting about Niko Vasquez?!
Uh, no.
We don’t and never have tried to track service time. Other sites claim to but I’ve even seen Craig ranked on those lists and I’m pretty sure that he has eclipsed the service time bit. For us it’s 130PA or 30 innings.
Craig had 124 plate appearances in 2010, in case anyone is following this. Which brings me back to my original point: where’s Cruz? That guy had serious helium this year.
I too am thinking Blair is going to end up in the bull pen. I do not think he will be on anyone’s top ten list next year.
Funny how Tavaras doesn’t have enough scout history while almost no one would leave Martinez off their list and he has much less.
Tavaras was voted 4th best propsect in the Appy league (Stanley was 14th). One manager said he thought he was #1.
A lot of varying opinions on Tavaras but I can’t see how he is not top 20.
Good point
Strongly agree. Nobody who’s only played short season ball is a lock for stardom but there appears to be some agreement on his tools, his age is right and he’s actually done something in professional baseball. I like Martinez and Jenkins too but they have way more to prove.
So the top 5 is 1. Miller, 2. Cox, 3. Martias, 4. Sanchez, 5. Tavares? Seems like this is at least an average minor league system.
Taveras wound up in the 11-15 group
hmm… then #5 must be… Tommy Pham?? I know a 26-year-old can’t be our fifth best prospect.
you’re in for a rude surprise tomorrow then :)
Another thing to remember about Tavaras is that he was not 18 y.o by baseball standards. The cutoff is generally considered the players age on 1 July. By that standard. Tavaras was 17 this year and next year will be his 18 y.o. season.
Taveras also played a season in the DSL in 2009 at 17 (season started when he was still 16). His line was .257/.338/.392, which isn’t great. But it’s still a season of pro baseball.
The Cards thought enough of him to skip the Gulf Coast League and send him to the Appy for his intro to pro ball in the U.S. Once there, he put up numbers that look a lot like Colby’s the year he was drafted: .296/.362/.514 for Ras in 2006, .322/.362/.526 for OT in 2010.
And he was almost a year younger when he put up those comparable numbers.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see OT near the top of this list a year from now.