Process of elimination probably tells who you is here but, still, these should be the most important prospects in the system. We’ll have more ranking discussions next week as Baseball America releases their rankings tomorrow. I also intend to do a live chat on Monday around 1pm to answer any questions you may have about the 2011 list and Cardinal prospects in general.
#5. Allen Craig
Age – 26
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 9, Jeff Roman – 5, erik – 3
Player Comments -
Craig is a significant power prospect who is close enough to the majors to make an impact soon. His upside isn’t huge, but if he continues to have versatility in the corners of the IF and OF, the Cardinals should find a way to keep his bat in the lineup and keep his development headed in a positive direction. – Jeff Roman
My opinion of Craig is a little bit down from previous years. I still like the bat but I don’t think the organization’s handling of him has done him any developmental favors. Craig is a high probability to stick in the majors as a t least a bench player. He’s probably the most “sure thing” on the prospect list. Depending on whether you value upside or likelihood will make a huge difference in how you rank Craig. I tried to strike a realistic (for me) position by ranking him 9th in recognition of his proximity to the majors. Craig’s been generally well reviewed by projection systems for 2011 and it will be his opportunity to cement his position with the big club. – azrauvatar
#4. Eduardo Sanchez
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 5, Jeff Roman – 4, erik – 7
Player Comments -
Sanchez is a back of the bullpen prospect who had proved himself at every level. His size is the only thing that keeps all prospect watchers from giving him the “future closer” title. I think he can get there and soon. - Jeff Roman
Among relief prospects, Sanchez has combined the raw power arm with tangible results on a yearly basis. He hasn’t had a FIP over 3.50 since 2007 and his average is somewhere around 3.40. He’ll sit mid-90s and touch as high as 97mph. He compliments that with a hard slider that’s not always sharp but is a plus pitch when he has control of it. He should be with the big league club for portions of 2011, all of 2012 and in a high leverage role by 2013. – azruavatar
#3. Carlos Martinez (Matias)
Age – 19
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 4, Jeff Roman – 3, erik – 4
Player Comments -
Martinez is a high-upside pitching prospect out of the Dominican unlike any we have ever seen in the Cardinals system as of late. He’s got this #3 spot before he even pitches one inning in America. He’s a great prospect based on his Dominican numbers and scouting reports alone. Can’t wait to see what happens when he gets into the American minor leagues. – Jeff Roman
Martinez is hard to avoid the hype on. He’s very much a high-risk, high-reward prospect. Scouts have praised his fastball both for velocity and movement and his feel for pitching is considered to be advanced for his age. The potential for Martinez is second only to Shelby Miller and that gap is not as wide as you might expect. His stateside innings will be well attended by scouts and fans alike next year. – azruavatar
#2. Zack Cox
Age – 22
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 2, Jeff Roman – 2, erik – 2
Player Comments -
Cox was a bit of a coup for the Cardinals in the draft as he fell to the Cardinals and they were able to sign him. He can play both 2B and 3B, but he’s not a perfect prospect. Just like a lot of the Cardinals unproven minor leaguers, he will have to put up numbers to make believers out of the non-believers. However, based on his bat, we can comfortably rank him this high. – Jeff Roman
There’s an element of Brett Wallace in the Zack Cox pick for me. A good college hitter with some questions about his power projection, questionable third base defense and yet is still considered a top prospect. I think a little too much is made of Cox’s college statistics — where he adjusted his swing to trade some power for contact in his sophomore year — and to little emphasis on his very good performance in the Cape Cod League. I think he’ll spend longer in the minors than some people think — I don’t see him in St. Louis prior to Sept. this year — and I don’t project him as a big HR hitter. Instead he’ll offer a high batting average with good plate coverage and a complete set of secondary skills that are average or better (with the exception of speed). – azruavatar
#1. Shelby Miller
Age – 20
Stats
Individual Rankings - azruavatar – 1, Jeff Roman – 1, erik – 1
Player Comments -
Shelby Miller still has a #1 starter upside and that value is impossible to replace. He’s done nothing in his first full season to have that tag removed. He’s the #1 prospect for the foreseeable future. – Jeff Roman
Miller did everything that was asked of him in 2010. The team gave him some time away from live baseball mid-season to refine some mechanics and protect his arm but when he was on the mound, he was electric. Miller’s fastball was too much for low-A hitters as he struck out 140 in 104.1 innings. He produced groundballs around an average rate and showed surprisingly good control walking just 30 batters. In 2011, Miller will look to improve on his secondary pitches and may be challenged at the AA level in the latter half of the season. – azruavatar
Entries (RSS)
I know comps are pretty useless, but they’re fun anyway. Who’s a good comp for Zack Cox (besides Wallace)…Bill Mueller?
mueller is probably a better comp for matt carpenter.
My personal comp is a Ryan Zimmerman with less HR pop.
Interesting idea: If Cox sticks at 2B and Craig sticks in RF, assuming both reach their potential, how’s this for your future lineup?
CF Rasmus (.370 OBP, 30 HR)
RF Craig (.370 OBP, 25 HR)
1B Pujols
LF Holliday
2B Cox (.385 OBP, 20 HR)
3B Freese (.360 OBP, 20 HR)
C Molina
SS Theriot/Greene/Kozma/etc.
Just suppose — not saying it will happen, but suppose it does — that Matt Carpenter maintains his high OBP at the expense of power, and can play 3B with a .380 OBP but only 10 HR. Would you rather have him there or Freese?
Holy optimism, Batman!
For reals
If you’re including defense in that comp, I think you’re dreaming.
I was thinking more along the lines of Frank Catalanotto. But have only seen him TV when he was still at Ark.
Given professional experience and production could Cox progression look something similar to Mike Moustakas?
I don’t think so. Moustakas should have more power and Cox should have more plate discipline than Moustakas has shown to date.
I know it is quite popular within the prospect following fanbase to hope Cox sticks at or even plays at second base, but how likely is that? Do we think the organization is really considering playing him at second? I don’t think I’ve heard anyone actually within the organization say that Cox will be tried out at second. Have I missed a quote from Lunhow or someone else?
I am baffled by anyone suggesting Cox can play 2nd adequately. There is nothing I have seen (and I saw him in games and tryout videos) that suggests he can play 2nd. He is a 3B/1B/DH type and his best projection is as a 3B. There were vague curiousity from some if he can play 2B…I would like to here someone explain why they think he could.
>>There were vague curiousity from some if he can play 2B…I would like to here someone explain why they think he could.<<
When Skip Shoemaker is your starting 2B, the concept of what passes for acceptable defense at 2B is rather expansive. It's not so much a question of finding the best position for Mr. Cox but the best position for the organization. He's already on the 40 man roster so the team needs to look at roster construction vis a vis Mr. Cox now rather than later.
I understand what your saying but there is no way Cox is going to be successful at 2B. I disagreed that Skip should be playing 2B last year and was PRAYING we replaced him for 2011…though it appears we won’t. He has least has some range and a strong arm but is brutal at the position. So that should be a hint that putting someone that I think has the potential to be worse than Skip is a horrible idea. Cox will play 3B and it will just be a matter of time if he succeeds in the minors that Freese will be pushed out by Cox at 3B. Carpenter is another 3B candidate but Cox has higher upside IMO. So I see Carpenter and Freese, if he is playing well enough to have trade value, to both be trade bait at some point when Cox is ready.
Ken Oberkfell broke in at 2B then moved to 3B after two or three seasons. Cox kinda reminds me of Oberkfell. Same height, both bat left. When Oberkfell played 3B, his body was chunky. The organization has a greater need at 2B than 3B near term. Is there a harm to playing Cox at 2B for a season in the minors to see what he looks like there? Is that harmful to his progression? I think not. The experiment can be aborted if he fails miserably from the inception. 3B is basically a position where the player reacts to the ball off the bat. It’s all about the first step. 2B is much more difficult in that there is more ground to cover and the need to work the pivot. Obviously, the throw is different. I don’t think it harms Cox to spend time at 2B in the minors and even if all working at 2B does is qualify him to be an emergency 2B, that’s not a bad thing. If Cox could demonstrate a sufficient competency at 2B to constitute an upgrade over Skip, then we could turn 2B over to him until 3B becomes available (ala Oberkfell). Freese has more power potential than Cox. If Freese shows himself medically unable to play in 2011, then I agree that this Cox at 2B talk is academic. Cox probably pushes Carpenter aside but Freese holds the potential to be a 25 HR / 100 rbi guy (if he could ever stay healthy, which is a big question-mark right now). The problem with Cox is that he is on the 40 man roster. We need to find a place for him to play on the big club in the very near future. 2011 is an option year for him. I think he needs to be on the MLB roster in 2012 and, wouldn’t you know, Skip’s contract ends after the 2011 season.
i dont think they used an option on him in 2010. that should leave three left. first one gets used in 2011. second one gets used in 2012. third one gets used in 2013. by 2014 he has to be up for good.
i don’t think there is a huge harm in having him try 2b, but i dont see the point in either. i dont think he can stick there. being better than skip defensively isnt saying much. moving skip to 2b was about needing a cheap infielder because the cards were paying adam kennedy to go away and thinking skip could fill a need as a leadoff hitter. therefore, they forced the situation. there will be different needs in 2012 in beyond. no need to force him to 2b. i think he’s better off focusing on adding some power to his swing and improving 3b defense than trying to learn a new position.
No, option not used on Cox in 2010 but you can’t wait until his last option year (2013) to bring him up to the MLB. He needs to get a nice chunk of MLB playing time in 2012 so that if he struggles he can be sent down to the minors where he can right he ship. You do a prospect a great disservice if he is brought to the majors on his last option year to sink or swim before he is ready for the pressure.
You have a very optimistic view on Freese IMO. I see more doubles and less HR’s assuming he can stay healthy. 100 RBI’s is only if he hits in a position in the lineup that would allow for that to happen. I get what your saying…he’s on the 40 man and we need to find a spot for him…but progress him at his best position and let him mature as a hitter. If he is blocked all over the place then trade him or the guy blocking him. If we think Holliday can move to RF and he can play some LF then maybe we try that. But keep him at 3B and let his hitting do the talking in his first full year. Worry about a position change down the road if you feel he can do it. And the discussions around he is better than Skip is crazy. Even if that is true he would need to be QUITE a bit better for it to even make sense. Skip’s D killed us in a number of games in 2010 and we all are just praying he improves in 2011. I don’t want to go through that again at such an important position (anything up the middle) again. And abe froman is correct…we didn’t waste an option on him last year so he has to be on the roster in 2014.
I just know that sentance originally read:
“…finding the best position for Cox….”
and then you added the “Mr.” just to avoid someone as juvenile as me making a comment, right?
/8th grade humor
Despite the fact that I’ll turn 50 in 2011, I dislike calling young players kids. They are professional athletes. I think I typed kid then perhaps overcorrected with the formal “Mr. Cox”. Then again, when I was in grade school, the teaches called 12 year olds “Mr. ___________”.
Fair enough, I can buy into that. I’d like for him to ft in at 2b but it sounds like he’d have a lot of work to do. Could he really be that far behind schumaker defensively though?
Skip’s defense last year should be a cautionary tale for those who think that 2b is a position that can be taken up and mastered late in life. It’d be great if Cox could hit for power as a second baseman but the switch, at the very least, would delay his route to the majors. Unless he has a better skillset for the position than Skip he will not be a good fielder when he does come up and his hitting might suffer from the concentration on defense.
Having said that I think there’s a chance that Skip will play considerably better there this year. He won’t be really good, though, and it will have taken three years to get to wherever he is.
Why is Daniel Bibona not on any of the prospect lists? His debut season was as good as John Gast’s and at a higher level. Nobody talks about him. Should be at Palm Beach to start the season.
I was wondering this too. An interesting trivium about Bibona: St. Louis drafted him not once but twice, in the 16th round in 2009 (he didn’t sign, obviously) and in the 8th round this year. Somebody in the organization obviously likes him.
I think you are looking at a pair of average prospects with Bibona and Gast.
Bibona will dominate the lower minors and probably the high minors too because of his pitchability but his 86-88 MPH fastball will hold him back IMO. I think you are looking at a JP Howell type if we get lucky.
I saw Gast pitch for Florida State this year and he really wasn’t all that special. His fastball was around 88-92 and he had a nice curveball that he backdoored well to righties. But I didn’t see much of a changeup and his command in the zone wasn’t too good. I think he too can probably do alright in the lower minors but I’m not sure about him succeeding in the upper minors and beyond.
Gast did have TJ surgery in college so maybe as he gets more innings under his belt the command problems will get ironed out and he can reach his potential which I think is higher than Bibona’s.
I’d be shocked to see Bibona start the season at Palm Beach. He’ll repeat at QC.
To elaborate on Bibona. He is a polished pitcher for the level of competition he was facing. His stuff is nothing to get excited about. He will most likely struggle in the upper minors and could never see the bigs. But you never know. I still would be hard pressed to think any legit prospect list would put him in the Top 20.
From some accounts Gast has some real talent and has performed much better in our system than he did at FSU this year.
Gast never seemed to get back in the groove at FSU after he had TJ his Sr year of HS. But for some reason his FB bounced back once he his our system and his control was much better than at FSU. Quite interesting actually
I saw Gast pitch in the CWS against TCU. In a game Matt Purke dominated, Gast had the highest radar gun reading.
Purke’s obviously way better, because it’s not just a radar gun contest, but him hitting 94 on a gun that nobody else got above 92 on was impressive.
Are you sure? I seem to remember Purke hitting 95 with the fastball but he was throwing alot of sliders. Gast was throwing harder than he had all season but im not sure he was throwing harder than Purke.
The game I was at, I never saw Purke’s fastball above 91-92, and the other game I saw in Omaha, Blair never got above 90 on the stadium gun against Clemson. I don’t know whether the TV gun was the same as the stadium one. I don’t doubt that Purke was really throwing 95, it just didn’t register as such on the stadium gun.
I will certainly concede that the stadium gun isn’t everything
Okay, now I’m going to ask about Martinez.
Where is he most likely to play this year? Is he ready to step up to QC? I figure he’ll be held until ss starts.