Community Projection: Matt Carpenter
Posted on January 24th, 2011 by azruavatar in community projections, Matt CarpenterSpringfield scribe Kary Booher ran a piece on Matt Carpenter last week who is the pet prospect du jour of late. I remain intrigued by Carpenter and while I’m likely shouting into the echo chamber here, I’d like to do a community projection for him.
In the comments, please leave the following statistics — in a comma delimitted format preferably — assuming Carpenter spends the full season in Memphis:
ABs,Hits,Doubles,Triples,HRs,BBs,Ks
I’ll compile any comments with these stats and come up and post the results on Friday. Anything before Thursday at 6pm will get counted.
Entries (RSS)
503,150,35,3,14,93,110
a little better pop than last year, but lower average
550, 150, 40, 2, 20, 130, 140
515, 145, 38, 4, 10, 100, 110
ABs,Hits,Doubles,Triples,HRs,BBs,Ks
475, 155, 29, 2, 13, 90, 55
This probably the projection i agree with most, although the BA is a little to high. I would expect more of a 280 BA or 146 hits out of 520 ABs. I would expect it to drop mainly because he is going from a strongly biased hitters park to a pitchers park. But the power and k/ bb numbers are right in line with what i would expect
520, 160, 25, 3, 16, 75, 100
assuming hits is all hits and not singles
ABs,Hits,Doubles,Triples,HRs,BBs,Ks
515, 173, 37, 5, 19, 107, 91
Darn JC, you really want those prospect “gurus” to rank him dont you! The only thing is is that if he put up those numbers I dont think he’d stay in Memphis all year to get that many AB’s and hits.
These numbers are very similar to what he did in 2010 mostly at Springfield. He would hit .315, have a slight increase in HR’s, have a few more doubles, have a few less K’s and a few more BB’s. Its not like I went way off the map here. Just a slight improvement in a few key categories.
That’s an OPS over 1.000! That would have been the best OPS in AAA last year by a non-1B prospect (under the age of 30).
Actually thats and OPS under 1.000. It is roughly .985 which is roughly .100 improved from 2010 which is very solid. But yes that is still a hell of an OPS and it goes to show you that you don’t have to hit a TON of HR’s to have a great OPS.
Pretty bullish…a line of .336/.450/.538!!! I just don’t see that happening at Memphis.
HMMM….I just realized I calculated wrong. I didn’t mean 173 hits but 162. I was anticipating a .315ish avg. My bad!!
500, 160, 32, 2, 18, 50, 75
500,150,35,3,12,90,85
This is at-bats, not plate appearances, right?
495, 146, 36, 3, 14, 94, 86
435,125,29,3,19,69,102
485, 146, 28, 4, 9, 77,80
491, 147, 26, 2, 14, 92, 92
555,180,45,2,11,80,87
If he is OPSing over 1.000 after 2-3 months, he won’t be staying in Memphis. Especially once frees’s ankles self destruct
Nobody said he would. The projection “assumes” a full year, and it’s easy enough to extrapolate from stats accumulated in less than a full year to equivalent stats on the same terms as the projection.
I hope you’re right, though, and I’m not sure you are. TLR’s stubbornness about playing “his guys” may leave Carpenter at Memphis even when it’s clear he’d be better than someone in St. Louis, or someone acquired by TLR-driven trade or free-agent signing. I have a horrible suspicion who that might be, but I can’t bring myself to say the B-word…
483,149,37,2,11,94,98
I don’t think we’ll see him get significant time in St. Louis unless we’re out of the race early. There’s too many other options of guys who could possibly play 3b. Also I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carpenter get off to a slow start in AAA before making the adjustment which would make a call up less likely.
I agree with Easy. Let’s say Freese goes down hurt again in 2011. It appears the first fallback option is Craig. Let’s say he struggles defensively. Even if Carpenter is ripping it up in Memphis, he is not on the 40 man roster so I think they try someone else at 3B who is, like Descalso. Only if Freese had another season ending injury thus freeing up a spot on the 40 man do I see the chance of the big club giving Carpenter a sniff. Even then I’m doubtful he gets anything more than a Sept. callup.
And that is the main point right there. People often overlook roster management. Alot would have to go on to adding sombody to the 40 man unless you have to.
Here is a more interesting quesiton. Since zack cox is already on…who will we see in St. Louis first?
Any 40-man roster that has Blake King on it does NOT have a problem with roster space. Same also with Augenstein, Kozma, Anderson. You would prefer not to outright any of those guys, but if you need to clear room for someone who’s OPSing over .900 at Memphis, you’d be crazy not to do it when the need arises. (Not that I’m saying Carpenter will have such an OPS, but if he does…)
two different scenarios with king.
For Carpenter, 6 guys already on the roster can play 3rd base (including greene).
So they just won’t put him on the roster for the heck of it. Alot would have to happen.
Add to that they have two more years before they have to put him on the 40 man roster.
They didn’t “have” to put Pujols on the 40-man in 2001, either. They did so because they figured out that he would help the team(!). Needless to say, I don’t expect Carpenter to make a Pujolsian breakthrough and help that much, but if he helps the team more than those other six guys, room can and should be found for him. (Which is not to say it will be found…)
Pujols made the team because he was a good enough athlete to play 7 positions. Not so with Carpenter. He played 5 positions before his 10th game.
But here is the thing…IF all of those guys fail, what make you assume that Carpenter helps the team?
All of those guy will be given a chance to fail before the roster change is made. They won’t give a guy to games to promote an unproven player with little or no AAA experience.
No, Pujols made the team because he made it clear in spring training that he could hit the stuffing out of the ball. Playing seven positions had nothing to do with it. He played a grand total of 2 games at positions other than third in his minor-league career. They knew, based on that minor-league career, that he was going to be good. It wasn’t until spring training 2001 that they figured out that he was going to be, well, Pujols.
I am not ASSUMING that Carpenter’s bat is good enough to help the team. It probably isn’t, at least not yet. But if it turns out that it IS good enough to help the team, based on a brilliant spring training as well as a strong (though not Pujolsian) minor-league performance, having guys in front of him in line at 3B whose bats do NOT help the team need not be an impediment to him joining the big club.
What do you mean playing 7 positions had nothing to do with it?
Yes, he showed he could hit the stuffing out of the ball. But he also showed he could play anywhere they needed him to, providing him a spot on the team. He was a thirdbaseman. Polonco was the starting third baseman. If he could only play 3rd, he probably would not have made the team.
That is the thing. You are ASSUMING its going to be good enough. Sure, assuming is fine on paper, but its much tougher to actually do that in game situations. Now he could turn out to actually be that good, but can people really tell that after a 1/2 season in AAA? Is that really enough to just assume he will be good in the majors?
This is what I don’t get when people project prospects. Why is it assumed he will be good at the major league level. The stats don’t support that line of thinking. In fact, its more accurate to assume he will fail. Optimism should not be confused with production. This is where the roster management makes it a tough decision. Do you release allen craig because you hope Carp can peform at a major league level a half season removed from AA. Do you make that hopefull decision and give up on a guy like Kozma?
Sure, if you know Carp was going to immediatly succeed, you make the move. But its more of a long shot than an assumption.
If Freese is injured, I bet Punto sees time at 3B before anyone else does
Depends on how long he is out.
492,141,21,2,7,88,110
AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SO
506, 150, 31, 4, 11, 72, 94
That comes out to .296/.384/.439 if you were wondering. I think that represents his talent well, shows he’s not an old, stagnating prospect, but isn’t world-beating and leaves some room for skepticism about his future. But moreso I think it’s what he’d actually do in Memphis.
This seems the most realistic to me as well.
AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SO
495, 152, 27, 5, 14, 81, 89