Comments on: Lance Lynn’s improved fastball

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 14:02:10 +0000

His increase in velocity is significant is that it eventually helps him become a better major league pitcher.

By: dan in haiti

dan in haiti — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 19:57:14 +0000

great to hear of improved velocity. In Lynn’s case, though, isn’t it possible that an improvement in mechanics and control would be directly related, or COULD be directlly related to his conditioning? I know pitchers in the past have pitched well with less than svelt physique’s. in most cases, though, wouldn’t you think that losing weight, while maintaining strength and flexibility, would lead to better repeatability of his motion AND a possible increase in velocity? haven’t seen him personally, from what I have read he is not an athelitic specimen. just wanted others opinion on this, maybe he just got into better shape later in the year, does anyone have info on this? thanks.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 17:02:26 +0000

I believe he was up in this range his So year in college and lost velocity in his Jr year.

By: easy

easy — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 15:18:22 +0000

That answers my question which was whether the 2MPH gain was added just over his first half of 2010 or whether that’s a gain over his historic base line. If he’d just lost a couple of MPH and then regained it it wouldn’t mean much but it sounds like it’s territory he hasn’t been in before. If he maintains it he might have a higher ceiling than we thought.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 14:56:25 +0000

Lynn’s FIP may be equivalent between the first half and second half of the season but for entirely different reasons. In the first half, his command was weak and he didn’t have an effective fastball. In the second half, he got bit by the long ball. If you normalize for HR rate, his second half was better though not substantially so.

The goal of the post wasn’t to make a comprehensive argument about Lynn’s season. It was to share with you guys a report about his velocity. Read the article with the narrow focus it was intended in.

By: Kyle

Kyle — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 06:24:37 +0000

I was able to see Lynn pitch from behind home plate in his first year at springfield. His fastball then sat 88-92. I left the game thinking jeff suppan (in his prime for the cards) was a good comp. for him.

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 04:24:04 +0000

“Yes John, but velocity isn’t worth much if a player cant locate the pitch or fool anyone. From his FIP (small sample size or not) it doesn’t appear he did any better (or worse) in doing that in the second half than he did the first. ”

In all fairness to Mr. Vuch. I’m not sure he actually said that Lynn’s 2nd half was an improvement. It was Az that indirectly indicated his 2nd half was better.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 04:00:59 +0000

GREAT stuff, AZ; thanks for sharing it.

I’m not John Vuch, but here’s how I’d have answered CC’s point if I was. “Good question, but keep in mind that FIP, like all tools like it, is prone to small-sample-size effects and selection bias. Velocity on a fastball is not. You don’t need three seasons’ worth of radar-gun statistics to notice it when a guy gains 2 mph on a fastball; two or three games before the gain, and a similar number afterward, will tell you whether the gain has occurred. That, for me, says more about Lance Lynn getting on track than FIP or mid-season splits can. Thanks for calling.”

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 03:22:15 +0000

For a guy who convinced me that FIP was a good measure of a pitcher I’m surprised and disappointing you didn’t challenge Vuch on whether, based on FIP, Lynn’s second half was really an improvement (there was minimal difference by my rough calculation). Not only would it be interesting in general terms to hear his response, we might have gotten some very useful insight into the importance (or not) of FIP to the Cardinals in terms of evaluating their minor league prospects.

By: cardini99

cardini99 — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 03:22:11 +0000

Lynn’s 2nd half was nice to see after an uneven first half of the season for him. Like you, still see him as more of mid rotation starter than top of the rotation type, but with that said, mid rotation starters still hold plenty of value to any team, and its nice to have a Lynn type pitcher close to the major leagues. Its also a nice luxury to be able to have him continue to work on things in Memphis but also glad to have him as a decent fall back option should one of our 5 starters get hurt, which seems like a good probability over the course of a 162 game season and the injury history of them.