Thinking Ahead to the 2011 Draft
Posted on February 1st, 2011 by azruavatar in 2011 MLB Draft, analysisI saw an interesting Keith Law tweet today:
Early view is that it’s the best since I joined the biz. RT @Studz2389: @keithlaw How deep do you consider this year’s draft?
I’m not fully versed on the 2011 class yet, that will take me a couple months yet, but I’m a little disappointed by Law’s tweet. The Cardinals will have their typical draft pick in 2011 and that’s it. They’ll have no extra draft picks from free agent players. The Rays in contrast will have a bevy of picks in the first round.
This isn’t a criticism of the Cardinals so much of a lamentation of the upcoming draft. We’ll pick 22nd overall and while it’s impossible to know who will be available then 5 months in advance, there’s more college pitchers than I’d like to see in the top ranks of the draft. The Cardinals need the opportunity to snag some additional position player talent and a single pick in the first round doesn’t really give them the latitude to take many risks.
I mentioned yesterday in passing that the Cardinals have some potentially awesome arms in the farm system now: Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins. While those names are encouraging, equally noteworthy is the laundry list of pitchers at various levels that could develop into major league pitchers yet.
| Memphis | Springfield | Palm Beach | Quad Cities | 2010 Draft |
| Lance Lynn | David Kopp | Deryk Hooker | Joe Kelly | John Gast* |
| Scott Gorgen | Scott Schneider | Daniel Bibona* | ||
| Seth Blair | ||||
| Jordan Swagerty |
To the extent that any team can make a list like this, you should be wary. That said, I think there’s reason to believe that all of these pitchers can be major league starters. Not good ones and the probabilities are still against them but that’s a solid bit of pitching depth in the system. The other noteworthy item is that only Bibona and Gast are lefties. If there’s an opportunity for the Cardinals to pick up an advanced lefty in 2011, that may be the path they take.
We often discuss prospects in terms of whether they can contribute to the major league parent club. The Cardinals will need some of these players to pan out if they want to open up the possibility of trades. Long term, it would be exciting to see the Cardinals emulate the recent trade by the Rays of moving Matt Garza for some excellent prospects. The Rays were able to do that because they have incredible pitching depth within their system.
The Cardinals will have a rather mundane draft this June 6th-8th but it’s interesting that the needs of the system have seemingly changed in the last few years. The fluidity of prospects is part of what makes this all so much fun to follow though.
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What are the actual organizational needs? We seen strong at pitching, catching, toolsy outfielders and first basement that hopefully will never start for us in the Big Leagues. Whats our biggest need at this point? I’m thinking athletic middle infielders with some potential to hit.
That’s the kind of thinking that drafted Pete Kozma in the first round. Just sayin’.
Just touched on this in the last post about 2011 Top 10 lists. Basically the stegnths of the system are Corner INF, RHP, C and raw but athletic OF’s. We are lacking in established/more advanced OFs, MI prospects and LHP. We are also missing on true star potential. With that said you don’t draft based on specific positions especially early in the draft. You take best player available IMO. But if there is a tie or close to a tie and one player is a RHP and one is a SS maybe you lean toward the SS. I will say there are some exciting SS in the 2011 draft so even though we don’t have extra picks we can snag one in the 1st few Rds if we choose and they are the best player available.
Overall the 2011 draft class is deep in talent. This means that in the first 3-4 rounds there will be extremely talented players and if we draft well with each rounds picks it could mean a world of difference to our farm. I am hoping we go with the upside over the projectable players since our system is fairly deep right now. We lack star potential prospects and we need to start feeding our system with these types of players.
I think they drafted Kozma in the first round out of need at the MLB level. Which made no sense because he was just a high schoolerat the time. Honestly though other than Porcello was anyone drafted after Kozma in the first round even decent? I do agree with other posters that we should take BPA. All other things being equal wouldnt you rather roll the dice on a toolsy SS rather than get another pitcher in our system.
They drafted out of need in the system. They had Ryan, and nothing else. Kozma was seen as a “safe” pick who was average at everything and most likely to stay at the position. He wasn’t what one called a toolsy shortstop.
As far as those drafted after Kozma, catcher J. P. Arencibia was drafted by the Blue Jays soon after. He made MLB.com’s top 50 prospects list and is penciled into Toronto’s starting day roster, either as a starter or back-up.
Well there are a number of guys that if you look 3 and a half years later that look like better pics. But obviously its much easier to look back 3.5 yrs later and say you should have done this or that based on what you know now. Its all about what you knew then. But regardless here are all the 1st Rd picks after Kozma in 2007…and I will note (with X and description)which ones are obvious choices over Kozma now IMO.
Joe Savery
Chris Withrow – X – RHP with #2 SP upside
JP Arencibia – X – C with power
Tim Alderson
Nick Schmidt
Michael Main
Aaron Poreda
Jason Simmons
Rick Porcello – X – We know all about him :)
Ben Revere – X – CF with lots of speed and very good hitter. Limited to no power.
Wendell Fairley
Andrew Brackman – X – Tall LHP with solid FB, CB and SL mix with an occasional CH. If control doesn’t come he will be a closer type…if it does a #2 SP upside.
5 out of 7.
So its hardly slam dunk.
Also, if I remember correctly, that year was supposed to be a down year.
And I still don’t think Procello is a good pick. Its never a good idea to give a high school pitcher a ML contract;.
Better to give Porcello a ML contract and take him along slow enough for him to succeed imo. I think they would have developed Porcello alot better than the Tigers did. It’s a risk and reward thing and I think it would have been worth the risk. At that time I don’t think we had a top of the line pitching prospect in our system. Porecollo would have been the Shelby Miller for us of 2007.
Except you can bring him slowly. Because of the clock, he has to be rushed. Part of the prolem witht he ML contract.
I agree but obviously rushing him didn’t help his development, had they waited another year or so he could have been more successful. I’d still rather have that upside in our system. We have some of it now but were sorely missing it in 2007. Looking back at that draft I’m wondering how highly touted Mike Stanton was. The Marlins got him at 73 I believe. At that time we really didn’t have many OF prospects other than Rasmus. We choose Kozma, Mortenson and Kopp before Stanton was taken. Watching some of his high school highlights he really had a young Albert Pujols type build.
Regarding a player I think they should have drafted last year to try to fill that toolsy void at SS. Frankie Thon. Very talented player he asked for alot of money but may eventually end up being worth it.
We have enough pitching depth in the system(especially righties), and 1B and OFers are a dime a dozen. Look at this year for example, Damon just signed for 5mil and several other playable solid OFers have been had for less. Therefore, if it were me, in the first few rounds I would flood the system with middle infielders and see who sticks. Maybe in the first round take a very high upside HS kid and then in the 2nd and 3rd take a college SS that is “projectable” and will start a little higher. Then, if they show they can’t stick at MI but are hitting decent, give them a shot in the OF. No one ever(besides skip) moves from the OF to the IF, but the list goes on and on about IF to OF. Anyone strongly agree or disagree with this philosophy?
2ndly, Is anyone else sick of hearing about Kozma…… the dude needs to shit or get off the pot!!!
Well….. that “laundry list” of secondary pitching prospects has a lot of possibilities but does little to make me secure that we have enough pitching. I see Lance Lynn and a bunch of guys who’ve done virtually nothing to establish themselves as professional pitchers. First base prospects will not seem like a dime a dozen if Albert leaves and we do not have any sure fire outfield prospects. So what I’m saying is that, particularly in a draft full of good prospects, it would be a shame to pass on a truly good pitcher, outfielder or whatever to reach for a gaggle of middle infielders in hopes that some of them stick. Let’s get the best ball players we can and trade one for a shortstop.
Also, I, like you, am tired of hearing about Kozma but more because first round draft choices who don’t make it truly are a dime a dozen and we should just get over this one if he doesn’t. I’m also not totally sure that he’s toast but this year should be telling.
How many franchise actually do have a huge depth of pitches in the minors that have fully established themselves as professional pitchers? The Minors is about developing question marks. At least now at this point it seems we have a depth of big time talent, what we do with it and who develops can’t be known by anyone.
Kozma is only now age appropriate for the league he is in. They pushed him too fast without allowing him to have much success at any level. This year for sure will be a make or break year for him. He has shown good range and some pop in the bat. I do think that Ryan Jackson is a better prospect at this point as he is finally starting to get it and hit decently, while being a better SS than Kozma.
It actually seems that very few people drafted at SS actually stick there. I stay take BPA but no need taking a outfielder in that position unless he’s overwhelmingly better than everyone else available at the time.
Ironically, if we’re thinking the unthinkable, by far the best prospect the Cardinals left on the table to pursue Koz — as did many other teams, to the point that the guy fell into the second round — was Mike Stanton … a first baseman.
Even if this is a far better draft than in the last few years, the fact of the matter is still that the Cardinals don’t draft until near the end of the round. It is very unlikely that there’s going to be a can’t-miss talent still on the board at that point; even in an exceptional year, ten or twelve budding stars is about all one can hope for. It would take contract shenanigans as with Shelby, Cox, etc., for one of them to drop to the 22nd slot. That could happen, and the Cardinals are well enough run, from a business perspective, to be able to pounce on an opportunity if another one presents itself. Just don’t count on it.
I forgot about Stanton, he would look real good in RF right now.
MyMLBDraft currently has us mocked to take Francisco Lindor at 22. From the scouting reports I’ve found, I’ve gotten mixed reviews on him.
Baseball Beginnings’s John Klima seems has a future utility guy with soft hands and little power.
5ToolTalk is higher on him citing his gap power, very good defense and arm, and good speed.
A comment from Dave Perkin at BA compared Lindor to Jose Reyes.
Baseball Rumor Mill calls him an excellent all-around player.
Personally, I’m hoping the Cardinals can pick up him or Christian Lopes in the first round.
Lindor at this point is the best SS on most peoples boards. But its early and the next few months will be crucial. Lindor has power for his size and plays a slick SS. IMO he definitely stays at SS long term. Here are some of the other intriguing SS that will most likely go off the board in the first few rounds:
Christian Lopes (as you mentioned) – HS
Tyler Goeddel – HS
Jake Hager – HS
Phillip Evans – HS – I am a HUGE fan!
Tyler Greene – HS
Johnny Eierman – HS
Julius Gaines – HS
Austin Slater – HS
Levi Michael – College
Brad Miller – College
Joe Panik – College
Nick Ahmed – College
BA Vollmuth – College
Derek Dennis – College
There are other guys that will rise in the next few months and some of these guys will fall. To me Lindor, Evans and Lopes are the 3 that I like more than others.
After looking through the Top 50 prospects, I think someone alot better than Lindor or Lopes will fall to the Cardinals at 23. We may be a ble to get a pretty good SS prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round. Archie Bradley or Bubba Starling may fall based on the strength of there committment to college. Both we could pay there bonus over 5 years because they both want to play 2 sports in college.
I’m with you. Lindor is the only one at this point that would be a solid pick at #22 overall pick (1st Rd). That obviously could change over the next couple months. But I like our strategy over the past few years of taking the guy that has dropped in the 1st Rd (Wallace, Miller and Cox). Once we are within a month of the draft it will be a more relavant conversation to start putting names with draft positions. But the point is there are definitely some very attractive SS options in the 1st few rounds. Once again I am very high on Evans and I would be thrilled if he was available in the 2nd Rd but I think his value will only rise.
At this point in the 2 mocks I’ve seen it has us taking Fransisco Lindor in one and Derek Fisher in the other.
Way to far in the future for me to start guessing on players. A first round pick with alot of power would be nice.
Researching more into Stanton he really reminds me of Pujols when he came out of Juco. Not many people knew about him but those that did knew he was going to be something special. Both were man among boys physically with very strong work ethics and no questions of make up. Stanton was a 3 sports star so he didn’t go to many of the baseball showcases. He was recruited to go to USC and play football so its possible he fell to 73 because no one thought he would sign. Either way he is someone that should have been our radars. You can rarely go wrong with a big strong smart kid who works hard and cares about being the best. Mike Stanton of 07 seemed like the Austin Wilson of this draft other than the fact that Wilson was probably more known.