Community Projection Results: Shelby Miller
Posted on February 11th, 2011 by azruavatar in UncategorizedI actually think the results for Miller came out to be very plausible. We had someone people who thought he’d do quite well and others who thought he’d have a bit of a rockier year. I’m personally a touch average on his FIP but overall it was a relatively clustered group of FIPs. Now, Miller could also completely bomb out in a full season of Double A but if he performs to these projections, he’ll be a top-10 or top-5 prospect in baseball entering 2011.
| IP | Hits | BB | K | HR | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | K:BB | HR/9 | |
| 130 | 138 | 50 | 120 | 15 | 4.6 | 4.00 | 8.30 | 3.46 | 2.40 | 1.03 | |
| 145 | 139 | 37 | 163 | 14 | 2.86 | 2.97 | 10.1 | 2.29 | 4.40 | 0.86 | |
| 142 | 153 | 43 | 175 | 12 | 3.27 | 2.74 | 11.0 | 2.72 | 4.06 | 0.76 | |
| 148 | 133 | 42 | 159 | 12 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 9.66 | 2.55 | 3.78 | 0.72 | |
| 128 | 116 | 42 | 144 | 14 | 3.42 | 3.35 | 10.1 | 2.95 | 3.42 | 0.98 | |
| 141 | 157 | 53 | 128 | 13 | 4.4 | 3.71 | 8.17 | 3.38 | 2.41 | 0.82 | |
| 125 | 133 | 38 | 134 | 12 | 3.74 | 3.21 | 9.64 | 2.73 | 3.52 | 0.86 | |
| 120 | 132 | 65 | 144 | 11 | 3.4 | 3.61 | 10.8 | 4.87 | 2.21 | 0.82 | |
| 126 | 129 | 52 | 143 | 15 | 3.61 | 3.71 | 10.2 | 3.71 | 2.75 | 1.07 | |
| 128 | 125 | 38 | 152 | 17 | 3.81 | 3.44 | 10.6 | 2.67 | 4.00 | 1.19 | |
| 120 | 100 | 35 | 110 | 10 | 3.5 | 3.32 | 8.25 | 2.62 | 3.14 | 0.75 | |
| 145 | 120 | 51 | 145 | 14 | 3.78 | 3.51 | 9.00 | 3.16 | 2.84 | 0.86 | |
| 150 | 128 | 45 | 207 | 9 | 2.28 | 2.12 | 12.4 | 2.70 | 4.60 | 0.54 | |
| 150 | 150 | 60 | 180 | 17 | 4.25 | 3.47 | 10.8 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.02 | |
| Average | 135.5 | 132.3 | 46.5 | 150.2 | 13.2 | 3.56 | 3.27 | 9.97 | 3.08 | 3.23 | 0.87 |
| 2010 | 104.1 | 96 | 33 | 140 | 7 | 3.71 | 2.42 | 12.08 | 2.85 | 4.24 | 0.60 |
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So this is what we expect from Shelby in a full season of AA ball, but what would we consider a success? Jumping from low-A to the Texas League is no small feat, so is a FIP of 3.75 or better with good health considered successful?
I’d certainly think so, and I don’t know that I’d even set the bar for success that high. Give me a K/BB ratio of better than 3 (which, be it noted, I did not project him to have), and a K/9 rate around 9, and I don’t really care what the result is on balls in play, whether long balls or not. Remember, he’d not only be facing AA batters, but also throwing to an AA catcher … and Cardinals minor-league catchers not named Pagnozzi have game-calling shortcomings, right? Because TLR said so, in effect. He might even be right…