It’s still incredibly early to be talking about this year’s draft but I’m more interested than I’ve been in the past couple years and Keith Law recently released his top 50 list for the draft. As much as this draft is billed as having top talent, it doesn’t mesh well with the Cardinals overall needs and it looks very pitching heavy to me.
I can’t recall where I read the interview or even who it was really with but I have in my head a recent transcript of a conversation with a Rays executive. They made some comments about the need to develop up the middle talent and frontline starters via the minor league system given the difficulty and expense of acquiring those types of players in the free agency process. This struck me as incredibly poignant and something the Cardinals have had some success with (Adam Wainwright, Colby Rasmus, Yadier Molina). It’s also the first thing I went looking for in the 2011 draft.
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot to be found. I am intrigued by Law’s #8 overall, Francisco Lindor. He certainly looks like a top 15 pick right now meaning he’ll be gone prior to the Cardinals selection. Jackie Bradley Jr (#15) is someone that I’m a little hesitant about. The defensive chops are bona fide (heck of an arm) but I think his offensive potential is overstated. He’s not someone that I’d be dismayed to see the Cardinals take with their pick and I think he’s a late first round pick.
Law’s #26 overall is Levi Michael, a switch hitting shortstop out of UNC. I like him defensively and I think he’s got an excellent chance to be approach league average offense in the bigs. That’s an impressive combination for a SS and can easily make the player worth 3-4 wins. He’s someone that has a reasonable chance to be available at the Cardinals pick, could move fast and has more offensive potential than anyone else at SS in the Cardinals system right now.
If you want another Pete Kozma you can look to Phillip Evans (#40).
I’ve not looked into the pitchers much but there’s a familiar name near the top of next year’s draft class: Matt Purke. Drafted by the Rangers in 2009 out of high school, Purke was unable to reach an agreement and went on to TCU. Here’s gif of his mechanics via Adam Foster of Project Prospect. It’s grainy by it scares the crap out of me. There’s likely some team that is willing to take a chance given his results to date but I wouldn’t go nearhim with that slingy arm action.
Fill me in — are there some names you’re paying particular attention to as the June draft gets closer?
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“As much as this draft is billed as having top talent, it doesn’t mesh well with the Cardinals overall needs and it looks very pitching heavy to me.” Well, just what ARE the Cardinals’ overall needs? I claim that the answer is “everything.” The only position player on the major-league roster that one can reasonably project to be a real all-star in 2017 is Raz — and that includes Pujols, who after all will be 37 that year, and even given his superhuman qualities, has non-trivial prospects of being in his decline phase by then. Given that that is the reasonable maturation date for someone getting drafted in 2011, particularly a high-school player, I think the “overall need” is clearly to get the best guy available and not worry too much about what position he plays. Then repeat in the following couple of rounds, and fill out the farm teams in the later rounds with whatever is needed to put a team on the diamond.
This said, I would not rule out the possibility of the guy currently slotting as #8 dropping far enough to be available, depending on what high-school kids have eye-popping springs. The main thing is for the franchise to be diligent and know exactly what they’re doing. In Shelby Miller they very likely did get the best available player in 2009. Was Cox the best available player in 2010? Probably, given that Zach Lee (28th slot) was considered unlikely to sign, although the Dodgers did sign him. Walrus in 2008 … well, Aaron Hicks, Brett Lawrie, Lonnie Chisenhall, etc., were all available. Koz in 2007 … nah, don’t go there, although that was not a strong class. In general, I think the evidence suggests they’ll make a reasonable “best available player” pick, with the caveat that by the 19th slot, the very best players will not be available.
2017…really? I wouldn’t think this team would be drafting based on what the 2017 team looks like. Likely no more than 5 guys on the current team will still be there in 2017 and prob no more than a dozen are currently in the org. Who, still with the team, was in the org 7 seasons ago…AP, YM, AW, Carp, Skip, KMac and Motte…only AP and Carp were on the ML squad. Surely we look more like 3-4 years out, if drafting by need at all.
I suppose we look pretty good up the middle in CF, C, and front line pitching…need a lot of help in the MIF, though.
sorry, as much as I like Shelby and are glad we got him I think any honest broker has to say (in hindsight) that Trout was the best player available when we drafted.
I’m glad we got Miller but your right Trout was pretty amazing last year. It’s good to know that the Cardinals were seriously considering drafting him. That shows me that someone in talent evaluations is doing their job.
In hindsight, yeah, but there was no way to know that at the time. Pujols was the best player available when we drafted in the first (and second and third and …) round in 1999, obviously. There was no way to know that either. As far as I can tell from reading the commentaries of the day, Trout was considered a strong pick at #25, but Shelby was considered a better one at #19. Who knows (TINSTAAPP), it could still (TINSTAAPP) turn out (TINSTAAPP) that way, although Trout is looking awfully good, having developed in a way that exceeded expectations by quite a margin.
Going for the “best available player” doesn’t necessarily mean that the chosen player will _be_ the best one still on the board, when all is said and done. However, it’s a lot more likely to lead to that outcome, or at least to an outcome you can be happy with, than drafting for position, signability, high floor, etc.
I think there could still be some good talent available when we draft. One guy to keep an eye on is OF Josh Bell. He has a Dominic Brown type body and could be a superstar.
“If you want another Pete Kozma…”
Something tells me these words have never been uttered in sincerity in any front office.
Couple things to note here:
1) Lindor is the top SS but there is no guarantee at this point he is going in the Top 15. Many analysts I have seen have him in the high teens to low 30s range of best prospects for the 2011 draft. I personally like Lindor a lot and think he would be (from what I have seen and heard at this point) a perfect pick for the Cards in the 1st Rd.
2) Phillip Evans is a sleeper IMO. Not sleeper in the realm that no one knows about him but he could end up being the best 2B/SS in the class. I think his bat is a touch underrated.
3) NEVER draft out of positional need especially in the 1st Rd. Always go BPA. If the BPA is a RHP you take him regardless if our system needs hitters. This is a deep draft and you will find plenty of attractive hitters in the 2nd and beyond.
I really hope Hawaii 2B Kelton Wong is available in the 2nd round. I wouldn’t want him in the first but he could be a steal in the 2nd.
He would be interesting in the second but I’m still saying take BPA in the second because I’m sure there will still be a ton of players available.
Agreed Andrew, and while i would love to have an extra supplemental pick or two for this draft, its actually kind of nice that we dont have tons of them like tampa bay, and i know that sounds crazy but with such a deep draft, plenty of players should be available in the first 4 or 5 rds, and since we dont have lots of extra picks, we should be able to draft and make a good push to sign some talents that fall due to bonus demands, where as the rays will prb have to take atleast some of the guys with their early picks they know will sign for cheaper than draft slot, so this draft could work out very nicely for us as long as we go bpa of course.
I hope we employ that strategy. We had alot of opportunity to sign some first round talent guys last year but didn’t do it. Still wondering why we passed on Garin Cecchini.
It has to be $$$. Passing on him still rankles…
Well, we know something now that we didn’t know then, namely that his ACL surgery went well and his knee is as healthy as a baseball knee will get. Twenty-nine other teams didn’t spend a first, second or third-round choice on a first-round talent who might be damaged goods, either. Besides, the Cardinals were probably still smarting from the Scott Bittle fiasco, although middle infielders with bum knees aren’t as severe a question mark as pitchers needing shoulder surgery.
We would have got a comp pick so it seems drafting him if there was a chance the ACL surgery went well would have made sense. Bittle was in the 4th round so no comp pick. Which makes more sense?
The issue wasn’t whether he would sign; it was whether he could perform if he did. The jury is still out on that, although reports are that his knee is sound. Yes, drafting him and not signing him, whether because he failed a physical (which he apparently would not have) or for other reasons, would have netted a comp pick if he was drafted earlier than the fourth round. It would also have cost the team one of Cox, Jenkins, Blair, Swagerty or Tuivailala. And that would only have been if he’d gone unsigned, not if he’d been signed and unable to perform. Was it a good gamble based on information available at the time? Not clear to me, and hindsight is 20/20.
Why is Bittles a fiasco? He was hurt last year, he’s supposed to be healthy this year and in spring training, we will see if it was a good idea or bad idea soon.
You should NEVER draft for need, especially in the first round. Even if you’re team is loaded with good starting pitching prospects, and the best player on the board is a pitcher by far you take that pitcher anyways. At worst, you’ve got an excellent trading chip.
Is it still too early to start talking about specific names for 2011?
Still a little early but in the next few weeks we will start seeing a lot of names/mock drafts being thrown around. I have some of my early favorites for our 1st Rd pick. But I will hold off for a few weeks to get more assessment on the guys.
No need to hold back on them, I’ve been waiting for this discussion for awhile, we can start with organizational needs and what we think they will start going after.