St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Stock Market
Posted on February 24th, 2011 by Jeff in Prospect rankingsThis comment by Cariocacardinal got me thinking about a prospect stock market for Cardinals prospects. I’ll revisit this throughout the year, but who do you think has their stock up to start the season? Shelby Miller (code: SHEL) and Tyrell Jenkins (code:TYRE) look to have their stock way up. Whose stock is down? Daryl Jones (code: DJON) is plummeting. Is it a good time to buy DJON stock or are we talking about a continued free fall? Pete Kozma (code: KOZM) stock has been in a slow decline since draft day.
Who would you buy low? Who would you sell high? Whose stock would you short? (betting on a decrease in stock value) I’ll hold you to your answers in the comments!
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I’ll let the momentum traders set the market on TYRE.
My guess is that Blair is underrated at this point — expectations seem to have fallen for no reason (unless people suspect he’s nursing an injury, and that’s why he’s kept such a low profile since draft day).
Lynn was a buy the minute word got out about Wainwright’s injury. Might be overpriced now, unless you’re convinced he’ll start and finish the season in the rotation and put up a positive WAR.
As a penny stock, I like Curt Smith. I haven’t seen his name mentioned anywhere this offseason. His 2010 was rough (.312 OBP at Springfield), but in 2009 he hit well in AA after posting decent numbers at Palm Beach. (Decent for his first full pro season in a brutal league for hitters.) And in 2008 he terrorized the Appy League.
As a pure prospect, it’s hard to buy into a first baseman/DH with limited on-base skills. But at these prices, I like the potential payoff.
I’ll buy on Swagerty (Code: SWAG), and am interested to see what he could do given the chance to start, and I love his code. I’ll also buy on Shelby (Code: SHEL) because while his stock is extremely high, I see him as a guy that will be a legitimate star.
I’ll sell on Joe Kelly (Code: JOKE), as the results have been mixed, and the scouting report on his fastball being flat as a pancake does not encourage optimism. I’ll also sell on Matias (Code: CARL), just because no one has really seen him yet. My hope are high, but too much volatility in an 18 yr. old that has no experience over here.
And I’ll short on Zack Cox (Code: COX), because I see him struggling before he figures it out. I think his stock will unreasonably go down when/if he struggles a bit, but he will be a great buy candidate when that happens.
These are all picks as a gambling man, not as a fan. I hope the best for every one of these kids.
I’m buying a ton of shares in TROS (trevor rosenthal)…over at VEB i am riding shotgun to sickel on the Trevor rosenthal bandwagon…i can’t explain it, but i have a feeling he is going to be our own personal roy oswalt
Short term trading or buy and hold? :)
I like to bet on long shots so I’ll take the under the radar stocks of Rosario, John Rodriguez, Juan Castillo, and Rosenthal. I’d also put some money down on the Penny stocks of Starling Rodriguez and Gil. If it is a long term bet and not a short term investment I might invest in Kopp.
I’d have sold Kelly short a few months ago but have had a change of heart on him.
I’d probably short Jenkins. There is a chance he could hit it big but I dont think his bust probability is factored in enough. We are allowed to use stop loss orders though right? :)
Buy:
Matt Adams-Top prospect to take Albert’s place if he leaves. Currently unloved.
Tommy Pham- I know I’m more impressed by last year’s improvement than most people but I think he has Hall of Pham upside and can be had cheap.
Adam Ottavino- Have a feeling he’ll make it as a reliever.
Pete Kozma- Can’t buy much lower. Still think he has a shot.
Dan Descalso- I just think he’s going to have a genuine average career for some team so I think most folks underrate him.
Lots of penny stocks including CC’s guys and Sam Freeman, Audry Perez, Sam Tuivalalla, Ryan Jackson and a host of other candidates. For a half penny I’ll buy Mike Blazek.
Sell:
Jenkins, Blair and Swaggerty- I’m actually glad to have them and anxious to see what they do but, for crying out loud, they’ve pitched two professional innings between them and they’re on everybody’s top fifteen lists. Jenkns is as high as # two on some pundits’ lists and his scouting report reads as much like an Olympic decathlon prospect as a baseball player. Like I said, I’m interested in these guys but I think I can sell high and feel good about it.
Joe Kelly- To me he’s a somewhat interesting guy that you throw in somewhere in the high teens or low twenties on your list on a hunch. Lots of people have him in the top ten so I’ll sell and let them take the chance.
Adron Chambers- Got nothing against him but just think some folks are willing to buy him for higher than I would.
Fun topic Jeff!
Duncan had some good things to day about Kelly already this spring. I saw him start abotu 3 games last year, he’s got good stuff but seemed to tire towards the end of the year. Doesn’t have a real K pitch but the good sinker keeps the ball in the park. Would like for him to start missing a few more bats.
I’m out the market completely; I lost the house and kids when I invested all of our savings in on CLAMB
Sorry about the kids but who’s CLAMB?
Chris Lambert.
Oh geez. I’d jump out a window.
I’ll invest a fair amount in HOOK. Not exactly a blue chip stock, but undervalued with enough upside and limited risk for me to safely throw a few dollars towards.
Is there a hedge fund based on owning TLR? Because as his stock goes up, when the Waino-less Cardinals manage not to collapse and he’s once again anointed a genius, I bet the stock on almost all the others will mysteriously go down…
Couple of guys I am buying that aren’t household names in our system: TRERO (Rosenthal), JOKE (Kelly), REIF and HOOK (Reifer and Hooker – They definitely can go hand-in-hand!), JOGA (Gast), RYLO (Longmire – MY BOY!!), VIHI and REWILL (Virgil Hill and Reggie Williams Jr – 2 very athletic OF that I think have greater potential than many give them credit for), MAAD (Adams), COSTAN (Stanley)
Guys I am selling: ROSTO (Stock), JOSWAG (Swagerty – too much hype and don’t see as a starter or closer), PEKOZ (Kozma – Not sure I even see him as an everyday big leaguer at this point)
Guys I am buying low: DJTOOLS (You know – I still see a potential valuable player), BRAND (Anderson – I still see a left handed hitting productive C that will do just enough on D), NIKVAZ (Vasquez – He is my breakout candidate for the year)
Buy:
Tommy Pham(tools galore)
Pete Kozma(seemingly will get endless opportunities to prove himself)
Deryk Hooker(success everywhere he pitches, good K rate)
Mike Blazek(great year for QC, not talked about)
Daryl Jones(healthy?)
David Kopp(can you tell I’m a fan of the ’07 draft?)
Mark Hamilton(I believe Pujols will resign, but before that, if Hamilton hits well his stock will go way up)
Buy Matt Adams, best hitting prospect in our system.
Agreed here. I mentioned Curt Smith, but I think with all the signs pointing toward an Albert-less future, Adams automatically becomes a much more interesting prospect.
If they bump him up to Springfield to start the season, it creates kind of a logjam at 1st base/DH/left field between Adams, Smith, and Scruggs. But I’m sure Adams’ PAs will take priority, given the potential crater in the middle of the organization if Albert leaves.
I’d be shocked if they started Adams at Springfield though I can see him getting an early bump if he does well in PB. Even starting at SPFLD it seems unlikely he would be ready to take over next year no matter what the case.
I didn’t mean next year. They have Craig and possibly Berkman for another year, depending on how this one goes. I was thinking 2013 at the earliest.
If we lose Albert and don’t resign Carp (If we fall out of contention this year I personally am all for trading him) how about this for a 2014 lineup/rotation……
1) Jose Reyes – SS (Spend the Albert and Carp money to get him)
2) Zach Cox – 2B (I sure hope we give him a real shot there)
3) Holliday – LF
4) Matthew Adams – 1B (fresh off a 2nd place finish in ROY to Shelby)
5) Colby Rasmus – CF (just got a long term extension)
6) Matt Carpenter – 3B
7)D Descalso – 2B (or some of the Carp/Pujols savings for a FA)
8)B Anderson – C (TLR is gone and we give him a shot and Molina’s knees break down)
CI backup – Freese
4th OF – DJTOOLS
Backup C – Cruz??
Rotation
1) Waino (fully recovered from TJ surgery and better than ever)
1A) Shelby Miller (Fresh off a 2013 Rookie of the Year award)
3) J. Garcia
4) Carlos Matias
5) T. Jenkins (2014 Rookie of Year contenter)
Backup/Long reliver – Lance Lynn
Closer
E. Sanchez
How great would it be for all of these guys to work out……. Any thoughts on this??
It might be better if we had a RF and not two 2B… Besides that, I would love to see everyone work out. While it’s not going to happen, I look forward to watching some of these guys.
That it’s kind of sad that our system wouldn’t have produced a better 2b or C that many years into the future and that it may not be good to invest our franchise money into an often injured SS who is probably slowing down by this point.
Oh and that Colby runs for the highest dollar amount when he hits FA and it won’t be us.
Whoops, I typed that up in a hurry, replace Descalso with Craig for RF or sign a big name FA….
Regarding Rasmus, with the lineup that I posted above, we’d have more than enough money to sign him long term with all of those cheap options.
Side note, it’s really confusing as to why Matthew Adams is not higher up on any prospect lists that I’ve seen, the guy had an amazing line in A ball this year and did well last year also. It’s not as if he was to old for the leauge that he was in.
One possible reason is that Adams has not shown much plate discipline. A guy who only draws 33 walks in over 500 plate appearances may have some free-swinging tendencies that more advanced pitchers can exploit. Also, while he wasn’t “old” for the league, he wasn’t “young” for it either, the way, say, Mike Trout (who hit rings around him before being promoted) was. That said, I too will be interested to see how he progresses this year.
Adams manager in QC addressed the lack of walks issue in an interview last year. Adams was pretty much THE only offensive force for QC during the first half of the year. He carried the team. The manager likened him to Big Mac in 98 where he was virtually the only bat in the lineup. Because of this Adams frequently went out of the zone in order to try to drive the ball rather than take a walk.
Right, I think I remember seeing that interview. Taken at face value, it at least partially addresses the concern. On the other hand, Big Mac had 162 walks in 1998 … Do we have any idea yet what the A+ and AA rosters are going to look like? Will he have any “protection” on either?
Not sure I’m assuming that he’s going to get a shot at AA on the chance that Pujols leaves after this year and Adams will get a chance to replace him in a few years. I’m assuming that Cruz, Kozma, Cox, and Pham.
If Adams starts in Palm Beach, no I doubt he gets any protection again. The starting Palm Beach team will essentially be the same team as QC in the first half of last year.
He’s not higher probably because he came from Div 2 baseball and wason’t a high round pick. That and he’s obviously blocked if we resign Pujols. I believe he will start making more of a name for himself this year as he dominates Springfield.
I don’t think the Cardinals will win a bidding war on Rasmus and I’m not convinced he’s had such a good experience here so far.
Those investing in TROS are smart. I think you will see a big up arrow after this season. This will be the last time you will be able to buy on the cheap.
SHEL stock got a big boost this morning when the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 list came out, and he was at slot #15. The bad news: he was the only Cardinals farm hand on that 101-name list.
Looks like CHAM stock made a huge jump today.
Mathew Leach has twitted that he is investing heavily in TGREE as he expects his stock to make a big jump this year (I assume that he is seeing/hearing insider information on the ground in Jupiter).
I agree on both.