The Cardinals made their first round of Spring Training cuts on Sunday sending highly touted minor leaugers Shelby Miller and Zach Cox to minor league camp along with 7 of their comrades.
There’s nothing particularly surprising here but if you’re looking for a topic of conversation, which I am, it’s the optioning of Zach Cox. With the brittle ankles of David Freese, the third base spot is as open as ever and the Cardinals have elected to keep that competition among Freese, Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig.
This somewhat illustrates the perils of major league contracts to draftees. The Cardinals have now used their first option year (they’ll get three total) on Cox to send him back to the minors. It’s still not a bad contract — Cox should move quickly — but it does come with a slightly higher risk and forces that developmental time line.
For the time being the Cardinals seem to have Matt Carpenter ahead of Cox on the depth chart. While that doesn’t make him the better long term prospect, it does lend credence to the idea that he’s more polished and prepared for the majors at this point.
Entries (RSS)
This is interesting, from the Post…
“On Sunday, the minor-league staff invited Pujols over to speak with first baseman Matt Adams, a slugging prospect. Pujols was supposed to talk for 10 minutes. According to a coach, Pujols spent 30 minutes working with Adams on his footwork around first base and other elements of fielding at the position.”
Yes, I heard this as well. Great training for Adams, one that he will apply and hopefully make himself better defensively.
It would be pretty shocking to me for any newly-signed prospect (short of Stephen Strasberg) to be considered more ready for MLB than a player who has completed a year at AA and excelled there.
Perhaps here is where the effect of the slotting system really shows up. If Cox had played half a year of MiLB, perhaps in AA at 2B, instead of one week in a lower league, it might be a contest. But, the commissioner’s office does not approve over-slot contracts until the signing deadline. Cox did have the chance at the AFL, but I don’t think there is enough consistency or exposure there to overcome the full season in AA of Carpenter.
Cox signed after his sophomore year. It is likely that whatever his talent level, he has a lot to learn.
Interesting info on Pujols and Adams, I thought Adams was going to get work in in the OF this year. Mo mentioned on Sunday that Matt Carpenter has pretty much had a perfect Spring Training and has opened alot of eyes offensively AND defensively.
I am glad you pointed out the major league contract.
I agree it can handcuff a team a bit. However, i am fine with college positional players. But what a team should never do is a High school pitcher. Yet, everybody forgets that that is what was demanded (and received) by Porcello.
Who is still playing with the Big Club and how are they doing? How many more guys will be sent back to the minors and usually when does that happen? I assume that the cardinals have to reduce down to 25 players before the season starts….is that right?
Among the minor league position players, Matt Carpenter is continuing to get abundant playing time, and Mozeliak is saying all manner of good things about him. This may be something to watch. Daniel Descalso, Mark Hamilton and Adron Chambers are also playing quite a bit. So, less comprehensibly, is Peter Kozma. Still quite a bit of action by various minor-league pitchers, mainly the usual suspects. The last cuts down to the 25-man roster presumably won’t be made until right before the season starts. Indications are that Carpenter may be making these unexpectedly interesting.
I think Matt is the real deal. Good field and good stick. Watched him in AA.
Matt Carpenter will stop even the temptation of the Cards from rushing Cox if Freese goes down again. The system has more depth than the general fandome (which includes Strauss) realize. Everyone was pulling their hair out last season over our situation @ 3B but now we have M. Carpenter in AAA and Cox at AA. I like Matt Carpenter as a prospect.
I agree.
The problem with the cards system right now is that they don’t have help in the positions they need (middle infield, RH CF). So there is perception of having no depth. But in catcher, 3rd base, and Releif pitching, they are just fine.
You can go to mlb gametracker for game results.
They won’t send everyone back until the guys who will make up the 25 man roster are really ready to roll. If you remember, I posted once that spring training is about letting the young hungry guys work it out while the others ease in and since Carp is taking his time, Waino out, pitchers are needed.
Some Cardinals are not getting any younger, evidence is, pujols and holiday are done after 3-4 innings.
Cox, IMO, didn’t come ready to play big league, he’s young, he needs a full season and then some until they would even consider that he can play in STL. They won’t even think about it until he has done AAA. That’s just the way in is in the Cardinal’s system.
As I stated once before, spring training becomes an opportunity for those that have been around for awhile, they play while the definite ML guys take their time, it’s a long season for them and most don’t have to and won’t over extend themselves.
There is no reason to keep guys like Miller or Cox in ML camp when there is no way they will get to STL. They need to protect theses investments and they don’t need to prove anything yet to anyone.
Cox would not have signed to any team without a ML contract (he would have returned for another year), could be why he did fall into our hands.
I have been watching some of these guys for a while and Matt Carpenter is the one to beat right now, but they will not do anything until he plays day to say in AAA.
FWIW, for most, they already know where they are headed after spring training, no really big surprises.
Just think, this time next year, we could be wondering if miller is going to get a spot in the rotation. If the cardinals don’t exercise carp and/or waino’s options, there will be openings. Probably not likely, but still exciting to ponder.
Not exciting to ponder the faster we bring up Miller the more likely it is that he gets hurt or busts out. I would rather us have Waino and Carp next year with Miller coming along in 2013
Is that your opinion? Or do you have fact to back that claim up? Has it been proven that the younger a pitcher is when he comes up the more likeley he gets injured? Because I bet you can’t find one
The Cardinals are going to take it slow with Miller, I think we all remember Rick Ankiel. Next year Miller, will only be 20 I believe, Over at Cards Talk someone posted some information on what happens when pitches start there career at this age. I’ll try to find out. Not sure what the rush is on Miller. IMO the longer we can wait on him that means that the better the team will be, the more developed Miller will be and the better overall career he will have. Sure it’s exciting but what’s the rush?
He will actually be 21 and a half this time next year, still no time to rush him, let him do High A and AA this year, start next year at AAA and maybe have him up for a late call up in October of 2012.
Not a proponent of rushing, and not saying we should. But if he proves over the next year he is ready, and proves himself to be one of the top 5 starting pitchers in the organization, he should be in the rotation. Holding him back because he
Is 20 instead of 21 is pointless. I don’t think it will happen, but it IS exciting to ponder
I believe that next year we will still have all 5 starters under contract, I think Miller gets his shot after next year when Lohse comes off the books.
I agree. I think Miller and Lynn will both get their shots to move into the rotation this year after Lohse and Carp leave (I think we pick up Carp’s option after this year).
With pitchers and their high attrition rate, I do believe you should bring pitchers up as soon as they’re ready and get value from them. I think you take it slower with positional players and maximize their value by getting as much of their peak years at low dollars as possible.
That said, I think Miller will go to AA this year, AAA next year, and maybe debut at the end of next season.
That should read “the year after” not “this year after.”
I think that’s ideal. But if the cards fall out if the race this year early, they’d be crazy notto at least shop carpenter. Waino should at least have his options picked up, but its not a sure thing like it once was. Plus, it’s unlikely Adam will be ready for the start of next season
I agree but you can’t bring up Miller to start the year and then send him down when Waino is available. That’s just not good etiquette when your talking about the organizations top arm. In the best scenerio you allow him to have success at each level and build on it. If itlooks like Waino will be back mid season next year rather than Spring training theres no way we can trade Carp because we need an Ace next year. Pretty much the only situation I see Miller realistically challenging for a spot next year is a worst case scenerio where we stink it up this year, trade Carp, lose Pujols to FA and Waino’s recovery is delayed. I definately don’t want to see that happen.
If carp is gone, and miller has proven is one of our 5 best, dont send him down when waino comes back. Send McClellan back to bullpen. I’m not saying miller is a starter for the cards next year. I’m just saying that it is not outside the realm of possibility that he could be considered next for a spot next season, and that is exciting
You may be right but I do think it’s out side of the realm of possibility for this team as I don’t think they are even considering it no matter what.
I might be wrong on the person, but didn’t Verducci do some research on jumps in innings between seasons. I’m estimating here, but I think it found that Ps with a greater than 30% jump in innings between seasons were more likely to need elbow/shoulder surgery in their career. Obviously many Ps get injured and need surgery so some secondary research would probably be needed. If our Community Projection of roughly 130 IPs is correct, we would not expect more than 165ish IPs in 2012 to avoid injury (based on his research). I’m not saying I agree or anything, but you asked if any research had been done.
I also might be completely butchering my summary of this but I’m doing it from my faded memory with no time to research tonight.
didn’t take long because I was semi-right … Named for Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, this is a negative forward indicator for pitcher workload. Verducci, who called this the ‘Year After Effect,’ found that pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the “Rule of 30″ tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this ‘rule’ the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=495
Right. Verducci actually homed in originally on a 50-inning, not 30-inning, increase:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/02/16/verducci.effect/index.html
The conclusion that 30 innings represented a worrisome increase came later. The idea that a pitcher younger than age 25 is at elevated risk of arm damage is now out there in several forms. Will Carroll called it the “injury nexus” and documented all kinds of young pitchers who had arm trouble. Even the baseball old-timers seem to take that one pretty seriously now.
To first order, this risk is independent of whether one is pitching in the minors or majors. However, it’s far easier to manage a pitcher’s work load down on the farm than it is for a major-league team that’s in a pennant race. If the Cardinals want to feature Shelby in their long-term plans, as they surely should, throwing him into a major-league work load at age 20 isn’t the way to do it.
Obviously the verducci rule is legit, being agreed with by so many independent “studies”. However, Andrew’s blanket statement that young pitchers who start their MLB careers early are more likely to bust or get injured is not what the verducci rule is saying. You can be in a ML rotation and have your innings limited. Garcia only threw ~165 thus past season. If Shelby throws 134 this year (which is a jump Of 30),
he’d be ok for 164 next year. Where it gets hairy is if the cards were to make the playoffs and miller was at his innings limit but also good enough to be in the playoff rotation. Do you risk him, or pitch a lesser pitcher? Obviously this is all very hypothetical and has a very small chance if happening. But my original point was that this is all exciting to ponder, and that remains true
I suspect cox is a good enough prospect that the most likely way the cards run into trouble with options is a season-ending injury, like hensley and his TJ surgery. if cox is healthy in ’11, ’12, and ’13, he’ll be ready for the majors in 2014.
I think the ideal situation is that if he’s healthy in 2012, he’ll be in the big leagues. presuming progression and development, of course. i honestly think a 2014 debut would be really disappointing for cox. unless of course you mean Miller?
What that is hoping for is that Cox starts the year in AA and excels. Essentially, what Carpenter did last year. Then, come to ST with half a chance to light the place on fire and shoe-horn his way onto the team.
Except for really exceptional talents, though, this organization has had a hard time letting new prospects push established players out of the way. Unless Cox is playing 2B (and I have no idea why the club would not at least try that), he would need to push both Freese and Carpenter off of 3B. It seems a poor choice to bring up a 1st rounder like Cox as a utility player.
OK, so Freese just might spontaneously combust and Carpenter is not a sure thing. But, for a 2012 arrival date, it seems like either 1) Both of those two fail; 2) Craig’s bat does not somehow force the team to find a slot for him at 3B; 3) Cox shows the kind of excellence even TLR can’t miss; 4) Cox is playing 2B; or 5) There is a trade. All that assuming TLR’s veteran itch will not need to be scratched at 3B.
The same scenario, come to think of it, could play out in 2013 and 2014. I won’t lie–my preference would be option #4. Uggla is a 4 WAR 2B. We could do with some of that.