Matt Carpenter Belongs in Memphis
Posted on March 22nd, 2011 by azruavatar in David Freese, Matt CarpenterI think Matt Carpenter is a great prospect. Personally, I think he’s poised to take the starting 3B job from David Freese either during 2011 or by 2012. That said, I think he belongs in Memphis to start 2011.
| Springfield OPS | Memphis OPS | |
| Daniel Descalso | .917 | .741 |
| Joe Mather | .935 | .802 |
| Shane Robinson | .891 | .639 |
It’s complete cherry picking and very anecdotal. That said, we’ve seen several players in recent years who have completely aberrant performances in Springfield relative to their prior performance and their skillset. There was never a good reason to think that Shane Robinson was a true talent .891 OPS player even in Springfield. Jarrett Hoffpauir saw a similar one season spike at Springfield only to see Memphis numbers collapse.
There’s a great number of issues at play here (increased competition, sample size, injuries, etc) and my contention is not that Matt Carpenter will see decreased production in 2011. Rather, it’s prudent for the organization to try Carpenter out at a Memphis where the costs of failure or struggles are reduced.
The other component to this is that David Freese needs to prove he can withstand playing for 140-ish games in a season. While he’s been on the field, he’s been productive (.343 wOBA) but he hasn’t been on the field much. The Cardinals are assuming some degree of risk by beginning the season with him at third but it is mitigated by the presence of Matt Carpenter who is merely a Memphis-St. Louis bus ride away. Regardless of whether Freese secures the St. Louis 3B spot long term or not, a healthy season will establish whatever trade value he may have. Currently, much of his trade value is in potential rather than actual production.
If both Freese and Carpenter have healthy, productive years then the 2012 conversation becomes both more difficult and more interesting. For 2011, however, there seems little reason to indulge in the hypotheticals of what Matt Carpenter could do in St. Louis when the risks and need for a productive Freese are so readily apparent.
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I agree with your conclusion, but for different reasons. Given that Carpenter is considered a prospect with starting potential, as opposed to a utility guy (like Descalso), it makes sense to give him plenty of opportunities to play down in Memphis rather than every 3rd day or less. Further, since Carpenter is not on the 40 man, it makes sense, to the team, to have Descalso be the fill-in at 3rd while we wait to see what happens with Punto and with Freese. Either way, I am excited about Carpenter and think that he is a future 3b for the Cards, just not yet.
I think Descalso is just as much of a prospect as Carpenter. He may not hit as much but a 2B isn’t expected to. Descalso was the (Topps) AA all-star 2B in 2009 and the AAA 2B all-star in 2010. Sure, Carpenter had a great Spring but so did Descalso. Descalso also OPS’d 1.222 last Spring and Donovan Solano OPS’d 1.099. For a larger sample size, Stavinoha OPS’d over .820 Yes, Carpenter looked good this Spring but let’s not anoint him an all-star yet nor should we overlook Descalso’s 2 solid years.
Descalso is not just as much of a prospect. Carpenter is much better.
I disagree. Descalso is better defensively. His minor league stats suggest he is as good as of hitter and a much better hitter relative to the position he plays. What Carpenter has going for him is great plate discipline which may help him as he goes forward. People are getting way to excited over one month of Spring training. Time will tell.
I’m more excited about what the FO and big league staff is saying about him more than his Spring Training stats. Solano had just as good a spring last year but didn’t have the raving from the Big League staff that Carpenter has.
Agreed. He’d be better served getting regular playing time in Memphis. And as azru noted, the key here is “depth,” or, having someone in Memphis to call on when all else fails.
Maybe Springfield’s hitting coach should have been promoted with the players. I realize there is a new one. Too lazy to find the old ones.
I heard Lunhow on KMOX describing the differences in hitting environments. Springfield is very hitter friendly and Memphis is pitcher friendly.
Some 2008 numbers:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/
The stats presented here dont really support Luhnow’s contention. HR’s are way up in Springfield but as far as overall runs Springfield is only slightly above league average and Memphis is close to league average. Given that the PCL runs per game is more than 10% greater than the Texas league, on a run basis, Memphis is probably more liberal than Springfield.
I’m sure the M Carpenterites have already seen this but I’ll post anyway.
http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/03/22/11/Young-Carp-takes-it-in-stride/landing_stlcardinals.html?blockID=445971&feedID=8270
MCarp has a 25 man roster spot etched with name on it for 2011. He’s already one of Tony’s guys but has only 396 ABs above A ball so it’s kinda hard to anoint him as the future at 3B … at least in my mind. Agree that if Freese hits the DL in 2011, the organization will move MCarp onto the 40 man roster and promote him to fill the void while Freese is down. A betting man would have to say the odds of that going down this season are better than 50/50. We’ll have alot more info on MCarp after this season. I hope he shows my lack of bandwagon jumping to have been an overabundance of caution.
I misspoke above … “MCarp has a 25 man roster spot etched with name on it for 2011.” Should be 2012. I lost a year while napping.
Maybe, Maybe not.
With Freese and zack cox, I see Carpenter as a tradeable commodity more than a future with the cardinals.
What if Carpenter ends up better than both? At this point all 3 seem to be slighly above league average 3b.
Actually, because Cox has a major-league contract already, HE is the one who, from the organization’s point of view, is the tradeable commodity (or will be once he has a year under his belt and can be traded) — or more accurately, the commodity whom it is most in the organization’s interest to trade (again, at the end of that year). Unfortunately, for exactly that same reason, he’s also the one who’s least appetizing as trade bait, assuming equal performance, to would-be trade partners. Of the three, Carpenter would be the most likely to fetch something in a trade that’s worth having; the combination of good health plus not having started the option countdown would see to that.
Thing is, though: what does the team need more than it needs a productive third baseman?
More than a productive 3B? I’d go with a shortstop who could be a 3-4 win guy–not sure Kozma or Ryan Jackson will have the bat necessary.
The best SS prospect in the system right now might be Sam Tuivailala, who’s an interesting longshot, but not much more right now.
I disagree.
Cox is only 22. Carpenter is 25.
Carpenter may actually be ready now. Cox is still a few years away.
There is a shortage of middle infielders.
Tuivailala hit about .150 in GCL last year and he’s already outgrown SS. The kid is pretty big I stood next to him a few days ago. Jackson has really started to hit well and he already has MLB defense.
I know I called Sam Tui a “longshot”, and I meant it. But. But he did lead all the GCL in walks at 17 years old, which is a terrific marker for hitting success.
Also, though he’s a tall guy, so were/are guys like Ripken, Jeter, Tulo, Concepcion, Marty Marion, and Brendan Ryan, all 6’2” to 6’4″ (Tui is listed at 6’3″). Now, maybe Sam is gonna put on a LOT of weight, but maybe he’ll *basically* stay the same gangly guy he is, with 10-15 lbs. of added muscle over the next 4 or 5 years.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, here is his month-to-month progress from 2010 (micro-sample caveats apply, of course):
June .396 OPS
July .529 OPS
Aug .714 OPS
Moreover, Sam’s BB/K in August was a stellar 15/16. Far too many whiffs, yes, but outstanding patience for a veryyoung hitter. Lastly, how ’bout the fact that half his August hits went for extra bases?!
Tuivailala may never advance beyond AA…but there are some very positive signs so far—once we factor in his age.
I’m saying he already has…..he’s a big boy and has already seemed to fill out. I stood next to him multiple times last week. He’s already put on weight and I wouldn’t call him gangly or projectionable anymore.
Fair enough, Andrew. Thanks for the response.
Can any of Carpenter/Cox/Freese play second base? My guess would be that Freese cannot and I believe Cox has played 2nd at Arkansas…
Carp’s pro experience is all at 1B and 3B, as is Freese’s. Carp did not play any middle infield in college. He’d be a long shot at 2B.
Cox, by contrast, played not only 2B but shortstop in college. (Don’t get your hopes up…)
The Carpenter/Freese debate may come down to what happens with Pujols. If Pujols re-signs there will be less need for another power bat (Freese) and the OBP of Carpenter may fit our needs more. If Pujols doesn’t re-sign, We may need the power from Freese’s bat in our line-up.
BTW is should be noted that Matt Carpenter played SS yesterday or today vs. Springfield.
Any reads on how that went? That he strapped on a glove and stood in the appropriate part of the diamond does not imply that he’s a shortstop. How many fielding chances did he get? How did they go?
It wouldn’t be the worst thing to tee him up as a utility infielder in the Descalso/you-know-who mold, until it is clear whether his bat plays in the majors. If it does, he can always revert to being a third baseman.
5 of 6 on fielding chances. Link