Archive for March, 2011

Rules to live by:

1. Spring Training stats have limited predictive value due to competition level and game theory changes
2. Spring Training stats always suffer from the small sample size criticism.

Interesting Prospect Spring Training Stats:

• Blake King has pitched 4 innings walking 1 and striking out 3.
• Brandon Dickson has been tagged for 7 runs (5 earned) in 6 innings.
• Francisco Samuel is tied for 3rd in strikeouts but 23rd in innings pitched.
• Fernando Salas is first in appearances and has only allowed 1 baserunner in 4 innings.
• Matt Carpenter has a 1.266 OPS and 0 strikeouts in 26 PAs.
• Mark Hamilton is the only player with 2 homeruns on the Cardinals.
• Adron Chambers is the only player with 2 stolen bases on the Cardinals.

Stats as of 3/10/11

There was recently some discussion on twitter about the use of the #hpgf tag (I believe cariocacardinal was involved – you are like my muse this month!), also known as Hyperventilating Prospect Geek Fraternity.  That phrase was coined by St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss as a way to rip on us prospect watchers and our habits to over-valuate (in his opinion) the young players that are in the Cardinals system.

I was not aware that it still had a negative connotation attached to it, I had thought that we had co-opted the use of it here in a positive way.  What do you think?  Is it still used as a negative attack in places outside of Future Redbirds?  Or is it positive?

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold is doing great work for all of us “at home” types and getting video of the Cardinal prospects in the “B” games.  Today, he was able to catch video of Maikel Cleto versus Tommy Pham, Ryan Jackson, Zack Cox, Alex Castellanos and Oscar Taveras.  Check out his full article at the P-D about Cleto as well.  These looks at the never talked about “B” games are great to get an extended look at the feature pitcher, but also to see these 5 hitters as well.  After the jump, I have embedded the videos.

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Wanted to pass along this interesting article from Keith law on some scouting slang.  Some I like (fringy) some not so much (extra guy) but the part on command versus control is well written as I’ve been asked to differentiate between the two frequently.

Scouting Glossary, Pt. 1 by Keith Law

The Cardinals made their first round of Spring Training cuts on Sunday sending highly touted minor leaugers Shelby Miller and Zach Cox to minor league camp along with 7 of their comrades.

There’s nothing particularly surprising here but if you’re looking for a topic of conversation, which I am, it’s the optioning of Zach Cox. With the brittle ankles of David Freese, the third base spot is as open as ever and the Cardinals have elected to keep that competition among Freese, Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig.

This somewhat illustrates the perils of major league contracts to draftees. The Cardinals have now used their first option year (they’ll get three total) on Cox to send him back to the minors.  It’s still not a bad contract — Cox should move quickly — but it does come with a slightly higher risk and forces that developmental time line.

For the time being the Cardinals seem to have Matt Carpenter ahead of Cox on the depth chart. While that doesn’t make him the better long term prospect, it does lend credence to the idea that he’s more polished and prepared for the majors at this point.

Mysterui sent me an interesting baseball question the other day about a fundamental change to the game and what it would mean.  It made me start thinking about changes in the way the minor league system and draft works.

The question I’ll pose doesn’t have a right or wrong answer and it isn’t something that would necessarily be for the “good of the game”. It’s just a question and I’m curious what you think.

If the commissioner’s office were to dissolve the slotting system for the draft tomorrow, what effect would that have on major league salaries?

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch catches up with red-hot prospect Adron Chambers.  Chambers is so red hot that even a professional curmudgeon like Joe Strauss is on board the Adron train.  Goold covered Adron’s history and many other topics in the Q&A, including how he got discovered:

Back in 2007, Chambers paid $100 to buy a bus ticket from his home in Pensacola, Fla., to a tryout he heard about in Memphis with the Cardinals. He got the call 24 hours before he arrived — after a 23-hour bus trip that snaked its way north from the panhandle through Louisiana and Mississippi and into Memphis. When the Greyhound pulled up near the ballpark, Chamber said he barely had enough time to throw on some cleats before the workout started.

(Hit the link for the whole Q&A…)

So, Chambers got the word about the Cardinals tryout in Memphis and within an hour he was on a 23-hour bus trip.  The time between when he heard about the tryout before getting on the bus and getting off the bus and the tryout in Memphis was only 1 hour.  That is absolutely remarkable.

We looked in depth at Adron’s career here earlier this winter with video evidence of Chambers in the cage.  Chambers is a player that I have been high on for a while and his performance has only improved as has his standing as he has impressed the Cardinals brass and everyone around the game.

I can’t help but pass along this picture from reader Jim who had the good fortune to visit Spring Training.

What would get this collection of players  huddled around a single field with such intent.  Turns out it was Shelby Miller throwing BP.

That’s pretty cool.  You can also make out a contingent of minor leaguers on the right: Kevin Thomas, Scott McGregor & Lance Lynn.

Some more photos after the jump.

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