Comments on: Jaime Garcia: Before the Breakout

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 22:32:24 +0000

The consistent message from BP was partly #2 on your list, and partly another concern as #4: that between his body type and his maturity (no doubt about that), according to scouts, he “lacked projection.” They didn’t think he was going to get bigger and stronger, and indeed it is arguable whether he did so. They also thought he was already unusually good in his “approach” — setting batters up, changing speeds, using the count, etc. So he was, but there may have been some underestimation of how much he could still improve. Watching that game Sunday (such of it as I could), I was reminded of John Tudor in 1985, when it came to completely flummoxing batters by keeping them guessing (and guessing wrong). Praise for a left-handed starter doesn’t come any higher than that. Maybe half of this game really IS 90% mental…

By: Bob

Bob — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 22:07:22 +0000

Garcia pitched exclusively in AA at age 20—and was *leading* the Texas League in K’s when he was shut down with elbow tenderness.

And this after succeeding across both A-ball levels as a 19-year-old.

So: young or very young for his leagues, and extreme strikeout/extreme groundball tendencies. In other words, Garcia always profiled as an ace, if he could stay healthy.

He was unanimously underrated by the mainstreamers because (1) low draft pick, (2) merely average fastball velocity, and, to a lesser extent, (3) Cardinal.

By: easy

easy — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 19:48:48 +0000

As I remember it was correct that he was called “portly” out of high school but quickly slimmed down as a pro. There was original concern that his weight would hinder his progress.

By: Hugecardsfan

Hugecardsfan — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 14:54:22 +0000

He should stop hanging with those guys. ;o)

By: zuke354

zuke354 — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 13:50:26 +0000

Garcia is 6-2, 215. That is by no means a little frame. Glavine was 6′ 175.

By: mikey_mac

mikey_mac — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:22:19 +0000

Yeah, I think his frame only looks little when he’s hanging out in the dugout with Carp and Waino.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 00:07:22 +0000

I’ve also seen him described as, quote unquote, “portly’ in certain baseball publications and sites. I don’t see it; to me he has practically the perfect pitcher’s physique. But it certainly isn’t a “little frame” any way you cut it.

By: Buckriggs

Buckriggs — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 23:02:01 +0000

Garcia is no little guy. He’s listed at 6’2 215.

By: jjray

jjray — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 22:06:59 +0000

If Jaime is a stud through his cost controlled years, it will give the organization a big lift. We have other high upside starters bubbling up through the system but they need time to develop and acclimate to the majors. Filling that void internally (as a #2-3 starter) is huge. To a lesser extent, McClellan holding down a backend of the rotation spot gives the organization a substantial lift also. In years past, we either overpaid for a guy like Suppan or Lohse or took fliers on retreads like Mike Maroth and Kip Wells. I pray those days are over. If Jaime gives us 5-6 strong seasons, I’ll be thrilled. Any thing after that is gravy.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 21:56:45 +0000

I went back through the whole Baseball Prospectus history, spread among about four or five writers, and the message was very consistent from year to year: this is a guy with solid #3 upside. They were also clear that they viewed that as an INCREDIBLY good return on a 22nd-round draft choice — which, never to be forgotten, is exactly what Jaime was.

Interesting trivium: no player drafted 680th overall and signed from that draft, as Jaime was, has ever had a career that generated as much WAR value as Jaime’s 2010 did. (Journeyman catcher Dan Wilson’s career was “worth” more, but although he was drafted in that slot in 1987, he didn’t actually sign with a major-league team until 1990, when he was a first-round choice.) Only five players since 1990 drafted in any slot at all in the 22nd round have accumulated more value. (I won’t name names, as there’s one on the list who would make Cardinals fans sick to their stomachs.)