The farm goes 2-2 as Ryan Jackson continues his hot hitting.
- Mark Hamilton went 2-2 w/ 1 2B and 2 BB
- Matt Carpenter went 1-3 w/ a double, RBI, and BB
- Ramon Vazquez and Adron Chambers both went 2-4. Chambers threw out a guy at 2nd base
- P.J. Walters continues to struggle as he fell to 0-3 on the season. His line was 6.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 BB, and 6 K. His window at contributing with the Cardinals is rapidly closing with Lynn taking over his spot on the depth chart and others rising in the system.
- 30-year old Victor Marte pitched 1 shutout inning in the 8th. The back end of the bullpen in Memphis will look vastly different with Salas & Sanchez in STL and Reifer injured.
- Ryan Jackson hit 2 doubles on the way to a 3-4 night with 2 RBI’s and 1 SB. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he won’t be breaking several records by finishing with a .447 average at the end of the year, but he’s off to a phenomenal start with 7 extra base hits (all doubles) in 47 at-bats. It’s hard not to feel optimistic about the significant gains he’s made offensively over the past year with his plus-rated defense. When Springfield is in Tulsa later this week, I hope to take in a few of his at-bats and see how he looks at the plate.
- Tommy Pham and Niko Vasquez both went 1-4 with a double
- Jose Garcia and Alex Castellanos both went 2-4. Castellanos added a double, RBI, and SB
- Chris Swauger hit a 2-run HR on the way to a 2-3 night
- Scott Schneider’s line was 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K. His groundout : flyout ratio was 10:2
- Casey Mulligan pitched a perfect ninth and struck out 1. It was his 4th save of the year. Outside of a killer Thriller imitation (youtube), Mulligan can do more. The catcher-turned-reliever continues to display a solid K% and good control as he rises through the system.
- Shane Peterson, former Cardinal, hit 0-4 for Midland
- Zack Cox went 0-4. He’s off to a reasonably good start this season (.283/.340/.304), but he’s displaying an obvious lack of power with only 1 extra base hit in 46 AB’s. It’s far too early to be concerned, but it’s interesting to note.
- Audry Perez hit 2-3 w/ 1 double. He’s one of a few catchers in the system off to a hot start this season.
- Rainel Rosario hit 2-4 in the cleanup spot with 2 stolen bases and 1 RBI
- Xavier Scruggs and Edgar Lara combined to go 0-8 with 5 K’s
- Justin Smith pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs (1 earned), 2 H, 3 BB, and 4 K. Smith had given up 1 H through 5, but was burned by an error from Ronald Ramirez that led to 2 runs in the 6th.
- Shelby Miller takes the mound for Palm Beach tomorrow night
- Michael Swinson and Frederick Parejo both went 2-4
- Cody Stanley hit 1-2 w/ a 2B, RBI, and BB
- Nick Longmire went 1-4 with a stolen base and 2 K’s. He’s 2-29 with 9 K’s in his last 8 games
- Kevin Siegrist pitched 5 shutout innings w/ 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K, and 2 wild pitches
- Keith Butler picked up his first save by pitching 1 shutout inning w/ 1 H and 1 K
Entries (RSS)
I for one am concerned with Cox. His placement in Palm Beach was supposed to be conservative. He came from a Top program in college and played against top level competition. All he has shown so far is that he can hit singles. He’s being outplayed by Rosario who is only 18 days younger then him and hasn’t played against nearly the same competition other than Rosario’s strong month in QC last year.
PB is a tough park to hit for power in though. Still, it’s far too early. It hasn’t even been 1 month yet.
I’m just judging him with the best most advanced hitter in the draft tag on him where he’s supposed to be almost MLB ready with the bat already.
Having seen Cox play alot in college I can tell you that he often starts slow. But he is a smart hitter and is very good at adjusting to the situation. He will improve. Though I am still not sure he will ever have more than fifteen or so homeruns in a season.
i think this is more a caution on the rhetoric people should use to describe prospects than an indictment of cox. it’s not fair to tag anybody as ML-ready. there are some absolute superstars (strasburg?) who might merit it, but usually that tag just means “can start in high minors”).
Even with it being a tough power park, you would still hope that a few balls would find a gap and go to the wall
that’s the thing. while it may keep hrs down, it’s still going to yield doubles. he’s only hit 1 so far. that’s not due to the parks he’s playing in.
Jackson keeps hitting. Small sample size, but he has been impressive so far this year. If he turns out to be a high average shortstop with plus defense, he could be extremely valuable.
Jim Callis over at Baseball America answered a question about Trevor Rosenthal in this weeks mailbag. Check it out at the following link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2611600.html
How long before Jackson and Kozma get swapped?
Jackson’s LD rate
2009 16%
2010 21% (QC)
2010 27% (PB)
2011 34%
The other big difference has been power.
ISO SLG%
2009 .035
2010 .076 (QC)
2010 .102 (PB)
2011 .126
(All numbers before last night’s game).
Cario-Where do you think Jackson ends up on the Cardinal prospect list if he continues his improvement and has a better year in Springfield than he did in Palm Beach? Does he move into top 5 or 10 territory?
Most probably top 10. If he is mid .700 OPS. He’d have to be mid .800′s to be top 5 and even that would depend on how some other people do. Another thing with any Springfield player is you will have to look how he hits on the road as well as at home.
You are going to have Miller and Martinez. Cox could be there if he shows some power. Rosenthal and Taveras have shown the potential to be considered. We don’t know if Sanchez will stay in STL when Augenstein and Tallet come off the DL. Swagerty is pitching well. Lynn could come on strong like he did the second half of last year. Gast hasn’t done anything but pitch well since he came into the system. Adams is heating up. What if a top player falls to us in the draft like the last 2 years due to financial concerns? Lot’s of variables and it is early.
Of course there are many Cardinal prospect lists. I’m only talking for my personal list.
Because I’m hammered and bored, here is mine
1)Shelby
2)Carlos Martinez
3)Oscar Taveras
4)Matt Adams
5)Rosenthal
Cox sucks, if they don’t move him to 2B, he’ll be worthless, I’d take DF or MC any day over a 275 hitter with 6HR
oh, and if he keeps it up, I’d throw Jackson around 8-10 range
He won’t be that type of hitter. I would say he will more likely a .290+ with 10+ homeruns type of player.
I should also say that I think this estimate is probably on the conservative side.
There is no way Jackson can keep this up, but, the way he’s been going, he’d be our #1 prospect. What a phenomenal start. The guy is a top notch fielder anyway and to hit .440 with a 1.000 OPS… Just wow.
Looks like we finally have a SS we can look forward to starting in St Louis. How long has it been?
It’s time for Kozma to step aside. I’m sorry because I had hoped Kozma would show up. But Jackson really does look like the real deal.
If he’s a .300 hitting, slick fielding, ..780-.820 SS at AA, he’s gotta be top ten prospect. Not only do these not grow on trees, but we’ve completely forgotten what they look like.
Kozma is being groomed as a utility guy. Look at his usage. They’re having Vazquez play SS and Kozma play 2B on occasion. I would be surprised if you see Kozma play a few games in the OF eventually as well.
Let Jackson stay in Springfield until mid-summer at least and continue having success.
Minor-league assignments aren’t about “having success,” they’re about learning how to play baseball at an increasingly advanced level. SSS warning, home-field effects and all, but it doesn’t look like Jackson has much more to learn at AA. Since (unlike Koz) he’s pretty well fully-fledged as a defensive player, such development as needs to occur is at the plate, versus better pitchers. Not clear that he can do that in Springfield.
Way to premature to move him up this soon IMO. When he first came to Quad Cities he wasn’t a good hitter at all, he improved and had a solid second half of last year including the jump to Palm Beach where he continued his improvement. I figured he’s be a goo dhitter with his excellent hand eye coordination and his body control, I didnt think he would be hitting as well as he has. With Theriot most likely the starting SS next year I think they let Jackson have a full year in Springfield or a late season call up to Memphis so he’s ready to start in 2013.
Grunt-the Cardinals actually do seem to be really concerned with prospects having success at a level before moving up. Its a way of proven they have learned all they can from that level. Only in certain cases where players havent lived up to expectations for multiple years in a level will they be released or moved up in a make or break year, like Daryl Jones was this year.
Yes, “usually” they do want prospects to succeed at a level before moving. However, exceptions exist. Remember that low-A-level third baseman in 2000? They didn’t waste time trying to see whether he would “succeed” at AA or AAA …
Don’t worry, I’m not trying to claim Jackson is blossoming into the next Pujols. He isn’t. I do think, though, that he is somebody worth putting under a very careful scouting microscope to see whether what’s there justifies an aggressive move. The numbers don’t tell the whole story there. They just identify him as someone worth examining unusually carefully.
Another point. Back when they thought Pujols would be a third baseman (as he might still be if he hadn’t screwed up his elbow), they had such a gaping hole at the position that they were seriously considering filling it with the moldering remains of Bobby Bonilla. This is not unlike the hole that exists at shortstop on the big team right now. TLR can say all the nice things he wants to about Theriot, but there’s a reason why they only signed him to a one-year deal.
Completely agree with you but as long as TLR is managing and Theriot and Punto are on the team Jackson won’t be playing. I do see him goinging to Memphis at the half or 3/4 point of the season and then being Memphis’s starting SS next year with Kozma at 2b.
BTW I think Theriot was a 2 year deal. Schu is the one that only has one year left.
Theriot is a one year deal. He’s still under contract control next year but it would be arbitration and only if the Cards offer that to him.
And Punto is a FA at the end of the year.
Luna on his way to Memphis according to the News-Leader.
Remember what Colby did in Palm Beach? I refuse to get concerned about anyone’s power production in that league and especially in that park. Especially when the season is just two weeks old.
A bit harsh on Cox not even two full weeks into the ML season. Guy’s don’t get major league contracts out of college for sucking, he’ll be fine it just may be at 2B long term. Plus, I’ve heard him interviewed a couple times and he sounds like a great kid, not going to be shop lifting at a Macy’s anytime soon.
Jackson is STREAKIN! Will he finally give us a legit SS prospect in our system? Time will tell but he is definitely showing a lot of people wrong that thought he had no chance of hitting at this level.
As far as Cox is concerned…yes he was the most advanced hitter in the draft class and yes he has shown a lack of power. But come on people…its a few weeks into the season. At least wait for mid-May to have a strong opinion one way or the other. Some of you people expect results all the time and don’t give a guy the chance to get his feet wet. All it takes is minimal patience!
BTW – Has anyone heard an update on Riefer? How long he will be out?
Big problem with Cox is there are several people I respect who simply didn’t love him in the draft, and were floored we gave him a ML deal. At this point, I’m not overyl concerned about him, but he isn’t doing much to quelch the belief that he isn’t what he was touted as.
PS- Cox is not a 2B’man.
I understand what your saying but scouts/respected analysts have been wrong plenty of times. So all I am saying is give the man a chance to get his feet wet before throwing him to the wolves! Is a month and a half too much to ask?
As to Riefer, I saw on the Cards Scout.com site that he was scheduled for an MRI on Monday, but there has not been an update since then. Hope he is OK, at least hopefully nothing serious.
latest update via Strauss is probable major reconstructive knee surgery.
Wow…Not too familiar with history but how hard is it for a pitcher to come back from this sort of thing? Was it his landing leg or his balance leg?
Yovani Gallardo recently came back from a torn ACL in April to pitch in the 08 stretch run for the Brewers. He’ll be back next year. Horrible break, but he’s not a running back.
If Cox can become a 280-12-75 2B, I think that would be fantastic (at the ML level). Even those numbers at 3B would be acceptable if we are getting plus production out of 1B, LF, and CF, which I believe will be the case for the foreseeable future.
Never understood the worry over Zack Cox and his power. Their is a misconception that you need power to be a good 3rd baseman. Sure its nice, but not necessary. Polonco has had a nice career.
Lets say PJ is correct and he becomes a 280/12/75 guy. That is still pretty good. Better than average.
Defense matters. It’s only above average if he’s plus at the position.
Also, you don’t give a guy $2.5 million and a major league deal to have a ceiling of .280/12/75 at a premium offensive position like 3B.
I’m not passing a judgment on the kid at all, or placing a ceiling of that on him. i’m merely commenting on the post.
I don’t think .280/12/75 was proffered as a ceiling. I believe it was suggested as acceptable. Yeah, we might have overpaid for the signing, but if he becomes an everyday infielder, then how bad can it be?
@ Vision
I have yet to see that he is bad at the position. The only reason i have read suggesting the move is 1) not enough power and 2) blocked by Freese and Carp.
IF he can’t field 3rd, then yes a move is needed.
And if those are indeed his numbers, that is also his floor.
And again, even if he makes it and puts up those numbers, its a success. The signing bonus is less about ability and more to the fact that he was a draft eligable sophmore. The younger you are, the more expensive it is to sign you.
Let’s quit wishcatsing Cox as a second basemen. It’s a highly unlikely scenario, from all reports I’ve seen. Here’s part of a scouting report from Keith Law, “His lower half isn’t ideal for third base and he’s a below-average runner; his feet work fine and he has a plus arm, so it’s a question of his ultimate range. I get the scouts’ criticisms, but those who have history with the kid from his time at Arkansas and in the Cape Cod League can vouch for the potential that wasn’t always evident in Arizona.” If he doesn’t have the lower body and range for 3B, how in the heck do we expect him to play 2b?
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&page=LawTop100Prospects51-75&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dlaw_keith%26page%3dLawTop100Prospects51-75
Come on… I’ve been saying the same thing about Uggla for years. Cox may not have the best body for a 2d baseman, but, if we can make Skippy a 2d baseman, we can darned sure make Cox one.
Jeff Kent played 2nd base for many years. Mike Piazza played Catcher for many years.
If the offense is there, we will take a little less on the defensive side.
I think PJ’s opportunity is past. However, he left last night’s game up 2-1 with bases loaded and 1 out. He didn’t get much help from the pen. (Not that our pen isn’t a bit disrupted given the promotions.) Just sayin’.
There will be a bit of a wait and he just got hurt, but Taveras is the position player that has me excited. He is so young and performing well advanced for his age. The kid just drips future superstar.
I also think Taveras has the tools to be excited about. But I am not going to tout him as a future superstar either. I think an above avg OF with multiple ways to hurt you is the way I would describe him. That leads me to believe he will at least be above avg if he pans out and has the potential to be even better. But not sure I am calling him a superstar like a Pujols, Tulo, Longoria, etc. But between him and Audry Perez in the lower minors we have 2 very legit exciting players IMO. There are plenty of others but those are the 2 I think have the best chance to shine as they move up the ranks.
I don’t think I am ready to call him an impending superstar, but he has had an exciting start.
Off topic, but Stanford’s Austin Wilson is only batting .290 2 15 in 27 games with .717 OPS. Leads the team with a whopping 33 Ks in 100 ABs.
Yeah…I think the K’s should not surprise anyone as that was a known fact around draft time. He was not fully polished as a HS draftee but he has projections that get you excited. I see him continuing to improve at Stanford and being a legit 1st Rdr in 2 years. His power potential is quite impressive.
Still, freshman starter for a top ranked team is pretty good.
KLaw made several comments that very few draft-worth high school players go to Stanford and wind up raising their draft stock. Most come out worse for wear.
Lets hope they he develops well and proves that he made a good decision not signing…….maybe he may be in our organization in a few years.
I agree with that, but that is true for any sport. If you are considered first round talent, there is only 1 direction to go.
Yes, but Stanford is famous for the “Stanford Swing” that is (I assume) thrust upon all the players there. It’s a swing focused on maximizing contact, often at the cost of sacrificing power. It is not well received by major league teams.
It will be his choice if he wants to modify his swing or not. Hope he doesn’t.
Me too he will only get better, I checked up on him about a week ago and noticed the same thing. Still wish he was in our system probably in EST right now.
Cox has had 46 at bats so far this season in a pitcher’s park/league. Matt Carpenter is barely above the Mendoza line after 36 at bats. Through 67 at bats Albert Pujols is OPSing .721.
I know it is difficult to be patient, but that is the course here. Sometimes hitters struggle, that is a fact of baseball. If Cox is a singles hitter by the time that the all star break rolls around, then I think we should be concerned. However, until then I think it is prudent to reserve judgement.
yeah and if I remeber correctly Cox started out poorly in the AFL last year and ended up playing pretty well. Everyone needs to relax.
carpenter is still walking at a 15% rate, and has a babip of about .240. it’s not time to panic.
But that BABIP is consistent with his 11% LD rate. I’m not panicking but he is not hitting the ball hard and having bad luck. HE just isn’t hitting it very well (but still not K’ing much which gives me hope).
I’m personally not judging I just think he was overhyped last year around draft time and he is what his is, a workman’s like hitter with a good ability to go the other way and little to no power. Seeing him during hte CWS may have clouded my judgement as he was playing with a bad back at the time. He didn’t stay out when i watched him in Spring Training though either.
I think this is a fair assessment, but having seen him often at Arkansas I think the power will be there. He is not going to be a five homerun kind of guy. He should be more like ten to fifteen homerun kind of guy with a high average. I think he could be a Mark Grace type of hitter.
I love when individuals make guaranteed conclusions about players career potential based on the first two weeks of the season. How about we try to determine how good Jackson or Cox is after they play the whole season, or hell even half the season.
If Cox goes on a Berkman like tear in the next week, then everyone will be singing a different tune. No need to determine that Cox is a .290, 12 HR at best in the MLB after two full weeks of pro ball. Settle down.
#OVERREACTION
I don’t see very many comments overreacting on Ryan Jackson. Almost all I see have some sort of qualifier with the statement.
Also, Mark Hamilton was just called up to the Cardinals to replace Allen Craig.
Whoa, what happened to Craig?? Can Hamilton play the OF at all?
Groining pull……..Hamilton did in college and the organization has wanted him to work out in OF again but his seasons have been ended or shortened iwth injuries.
Nobody said that 290/12 is his ceiling. However, that would be a decent line for a ML 2B.
and 3b.
I think most projections are based on things other than the first two weeks. Like his profile as a college player, what he did in college his swing, those type of things. Thats what my projection is based on not how he’s done in the first two weeks. I would be very impressed if he had 2 or 3 homeruns at this time especially in Palm Beach. This issue isn’t that he’s not hitting because he actually is the issue is that he’s not hitting extra basehits.
If you were basing projections on college profile and stats, then no one would be this high on Jackson and his hitting ability. If you were basing projections on Cox’s college career then how could you say that he isnt going to be a good hitter. He hit .412 as a sophmore in the SEC. I will say that his swing and his college numbers dont scream power hitter with 30 plus HRs a year, thats a logical determination. But to determine that he is going to be mediocre MLB hitter bc he hasn’t produced more than 1 XBH in his first two weeks of pro ball is a little extreme.
If Cox was batting .315 with 3 2Bs and a HR lets say, I guarantee people arent saying the same thing.
And dont get me wrong with Jackson. I am very impressed with his hot start and his improvement at the plate. However, lets see him do it over the whole season. Even DJ Tools can get hot for a two week stretch…. ok maybe not.
It isn’t just what Jackson has done in his first 50 at bats this year… Last year he hit in both QC and PMB to the tune of 278 .359 .362 .721 in 450 at bats. Which included a slow start in QC and a .291 BA in PMB.
The guy has shown he can hit in 3 leagues now and with each promotion he hits better. If he’d been a bust last year it would be harder to be excited about his numbers in Springfield. Just sayin’.
My projection of Cox is based on his swing and college career. Two dramatically differen’t swings, low average high power v high average low power inside out swing. I’m not ripping the guy I think he could be an everyday second baseman and thats important I just think he was overhyped.
Jackson on the other hand I think people think this Jackson is closer to what he is than his slow start to his career as a hitter. He has improved as he moved up the system including reports of him changing his approach at the place with alot of extra movement to just being still iwth his body. To me whats most impressive about Jackson is his continued improvement. People thought he would hit like this in college but he didnt. He didn’t do well when he first started in the organization but has steadily gotten better as he has climbed from Quad Cities through Palm beach to Springfield now. They could have very easily kept him in Palm beach to start the year and had Kozma back at Springfield. They decided to challenge both and Jackson has responded very well.
Not saying Jackson will be a better hitter I’m saying Jackson is a SS that will stay at the position that could be average to good as a hitter. He was also only a 5th round pick and didn’t cost the Cardinals an arm and a leg.
Cox may be a better hitter overall but also plays worse defensively and his power numbers may project lower than the average 3b. He also cost 2 million and recieved a MLB contract.
This can all obviously change quickly.
With Freese and Carp ahead of him….. wouldn’t mind it if we need something around the trade deadline to dangle Cox as trade bait. Hopefully he starts hitting so his value stays high. We could probably get something pretty decent for him I would assume.
Will Cox be trade eligible by the trade deadline? I know he signed last minute.
I wondered about this, because they have to be in the organization for a year but if they get a MLB deal and are on the 40 man roster does that negate the year long rule?
No this does not negate the 1 year rule. Since the trade deadline is July 31st and Cox signed Aug 16th last year he will not be eligible to trade at the deadline.
I think teams often get around that one year rule by making a player such as Cox a “player to be named later” and then put him in the trade after the one year period has expired.
FYI – Looks like Hamilton is coming up and Punto is coming off DL to fill Skip and Craig going on DL.
wait, chambers isn’t going to move up? i anticipated either a chambers-hamilton or chambers-punto move.
Looks like they are opting for the power bat off the bench and reactiving our original utility man in Punto.
FYI – I am hearing Reifer blew out his knee and will require surgery. I don’t have anymore details but it sure sounds like his season is either over or significantly delayed.
It sounds like his career is more in doubt right now than his season.
Not sure I would go that far at this point. The details are still very limited. I would still say his season is the concern at this point and depending on the extent of the injury and how surgery goes we can then talk about how his extended outlook report is looking.