Jason Motte: Three Years of the Same Critique
Posted on April 18th, 2011 by azruavatar in Jason MotteI wrote about Jason Motte at VEB on Sunday. I knew that there’s a history of me scouting him and watching him so I spent some time digging up old posts about Jason Motte when he was still in the minors. I wrote a lot about him in 2008 and it turns out, some things never change.
Let’s work backwards in time beginning with yesterday 04/17/11:
It’s a common refrain: he’s working on a second pitch. Sometimes that’s a slider, sometimes a cutter . . . heck, he may be working on a gyroball for all I know. And probably for all he knows too.
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Motte’s fastball is, well, fast regularly clocking in at 95+mph. It doesn’t have a lot of movement on it and tends to be straight. What has made it effective in the past is the superb command he had of the pitch.
We’ll jump back now to just before he was graduating from the minors in 08/21/08:
Need a fastball in the high 90s? Motte’s your man. Need a breaking ball with sharp bite? Go look somewhere else. The slider is still sloppy with slow break. [...] I don’t think it’s getting any better and he’s probably ready to contribute at the major league level even with a below average slider. There’s not much left to find out in the minors — his fastball was sitting 97-98 mph. I don’t think he’ll ever be a closer but he can have a nice run as a setup guy out of the pen given the velocity.
A little before that on 07/21/08:
I will say that I wasn’t picking up on the [slider] as much before hand, which is an improvement. I’m just not sure it’s really a viable breaking pitch in the majors. It still looks well below average to me.
Motte’s fastball is blazing fast but relatively straight. When he locates it down in the zone, it’s a plus-plus pitch. He has enough pure velocity to blow it by most minor leaguers but that will be harder to do at the next level. When he does miss it’s typically shoulder high and gets fouled out of play. He may have left 2-3 of the 30 above fastballs over the plate.
The more I see Motte, the more I think he really needs to develop some kind of secondary pitch. His fastball doesn’t feature a lot of movement although he can locate it relatively well.
Three years ago, I was bemoaning the lack of a secondary pitch. Motte’s command with the fastball improved at the higher levels of the minors to the point that he was more effective than I would have predicted with just one pitch. The idea that Jason Motte is going to develop a second effective pitch should be laid to rest though. The complaints about him from 2008 still apply almost word for word in 2011.
Jason Motte is a good reliever and he was a good relief prospect. He’s just not a reliever with more than one average or better pitch.
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Great looking back on these things….
AZ, what’s your take on Sanchez, think he’ll live up to the hype and be a dominant closer eventually? I love what I’ve seen so far
I think so yes but relievers are fickle. I certainly think he’s a capable setup man.
I would disagree as I think he has the mentality and stuff to be a solid if not dominant closer. He continues to get the job done and never seems to be overwhelmed at any level. I have been touting Sanchez our closer of the future for a year and a half now. He hasn’t done anything in the past year and a half to make me believe otherwise.
Speaking of pitching prospects, very interesting report on Rosenthal at BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2011/2611600.html
They say he’s not at the level of Miller or Martinez yet, but he is climbing the ranks quickly, and has the ceiling of a #2 starter.
Wow, that’s quite a turnaround for a guy that didn’t make BA’s top 30 list. Clearly was overlooked by everyone other than the #hpgf
Callis explains that Rosenthal has seen some additional life on his fastball this year, even touching 97, while living 93-95. Sounded like that is why he was somewhat overlooked. Also, I like that he notes great control and polish.
That’s exactly why Motte can’t be used as a closer. He’s fine as a guy coming in to face a couple RHB vulnerable against high heat, but Motte becomes a liability when exposed. He has a high FB% and remains very vulnerable to the HR, especially when he doesn’t have the command or velocity on his fastball.
Sanchez has great stuff but still remains vulnerable to lefties. He has the best chance out of any of the current RHP prospects to take over the closer role eventually.
I think you guys are selling Motte a little short. I can’t speak to his velocity this year versus others but I will speak about results. Since mid June of last year Motte’s ERA over about 44 ininngs is less than 1.50. He hasn’t given up a HR since July 7th of last year. He started poorly in 2009 (but only recovered slightly). He started poorly in 2010 and then was pretty darn good the rest of the way. He started poorly in 2011 and seems to have righted the ship.
The bid thing that people seem to be missing with Motte is that he is lights out against RH hitters but below average against LH hitters (gives up more hits and more walks). He also is better when used with more frequency. That may not make for a good closer but depending on the team and the lineup it might make sense a lot of times if we end up with closer by committee.
I would challenge Pierce to back up his statements with facts. Motte doesn’t give up an inordinate amount of HR’s. What do you mean by exposed? I can find no evidence that he does worse facing multiple batters than just 1-2. Do you have that info?
Jason Motte has given up 15 home runs in 108 innings between 2009-2010. 10 of those HR’s came in 2009 with a FB% of 45%. He had a slightly higher FB% in 2010 (47%) and cut his FB/HR ratio between those 2 years from 13.7% to 7.9%. That 42% dropoff was mainly associated with luck, since he actually increased his FB% from the year before. He also did that pitching ~50% of his games in a very pitcher-friendly park the past couple years. A pitcher like Motte with zero sink on his fastball and practically no secondary offerings is going to be prone to the HR, like he was in 2009.
I’ll have to come back and address the comment I made about him becoming exposed to hitters (I have to leave this computer), but his issues against LHB come to play in closing out the 9th, as well.
I guess it depends on whether you think 2009 was the norm or 2010 was the norm. I’m more likely to go with 2010 and write off 2009 as a rookie year learning experience. I think that the fact that after the beginning of 2010 he got even better would support that. But I could be wrong.
I have always thought that a splitter would make Motte a stud. I am certainly no pitching guru or expert, but I would intuitively think that a splitter would be easier to develop for a guy lot Motte than a slider. Of course, this is probably untrue given the reality that more guys are throwing sliders than splitters.
Not sure if Motte’s fingers lend themselves to a splitter. I always thought that the fingers needed to be a bit oversized to command a good splitter. I freely admit I could be wrong about that.
One thing somewhat lost in the closer debate is AW’s injury. Had he been healthy this year, I think Tony makes the move to McClellan much quicker. He trusts him and he gets LHs out too.