Quad Cities provides the system’s only win tonight courtesy of Carlos Martinez and Kevin Siegrist.
Hitting:
- Nick Stavinoha went 2-for-4 w/ 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, and 2 R
- Tony Cruz also went 2-for-4 but with just 1 HR, 2 RBI, and 1 R
- Adron Chambers and Pete Kozma both went 0-for-3 w/ 1 BB, Kozma scored
Pitching:
- Raul Valdes got the start and his line was 5.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, and 5 K
- Blake King followed him and gave up 2 ER w/o recording an out
- Chuckie Fick pitched 2.0 scoreless innings that included 1 BB and 2 K
Hitting:
- Ryan Jackson got his mojo back and went 3-f0r-4 w/ 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 2 R
- Matt Adams hit another HR while going 2-for-4, he also contributed with 2 RBI
- Eric Duncan was 2-for-3 w/ 1 2B
- Nick Derba hit a solo shot for his lone hit in 4 AB
- Mike Trout, the #1 prospect in baseball according to some, went 0-for-4 w/ 1 R and 1 RBI for the Travelers
Pitching:
- Kevin Thomas got the start and went 6.0 innings giving up 2 H, 1 ER, and 5 BB while striking out 3
- Nick Greenwood pitched a scoreless 1.1 innings and only gave up 1 H, he also recorded 1 K
- Matt Frevert tried to come in and close it out but got blowed up to the tune of 3 ER in 0.2 IP
Hitting:
- D’Marcus Ingram recorded 4 of Palm Beach’s seven hits by going 4-for-4 w/ 1 2B and 1 SB
- Edgar Lara went 2-for-4 w/ 1 2B
Pitching:
- Justin Smith pitched a very solid game with a line of 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, and 6 K
- Chris Corrigan pitched a scoreless inning that included 1 H and 1 K
Hitting:
- The Quad Cities eked out 8 hits tonight, only 1 went for extra bases
- Greg Garcia and Oscar Taveras both had 1 H in their 4 PA, Taveras knocked in 1 RBI
- Nick Longmire is showing signs of life lately, he went 3-for-4 w/ the only 2B
- Juan Castillo went 2-for-4
Pitching:
- Though the hitting was dissapointing, the pitching was exactly what you would hope for
- Making his long anticipated regular season debut, I give you (drum roll please) CARLOS MARTINEZ! He went 4.0 scoreless/hitless innings while recording 6 K, he also had 1 BB
- Kevin Siegrist did not want to be overshadowed so he relieved Carlos and pitched 5.0 scoreless innings of his own that included 2 H, 2 BB, and 2 K
Entries (RSS)
OMG we have so much potentially major league quality pitching in our system! This has got to be the most frontline pitching this organization has ever had at one time.
Oscar Taveras also threw out the tying run at home. What’s next for him? Rescuing people from fires and getting cats out of trees? I wish I was able to see him play.
Caught him play on Friday night…he really looks the part of a major league corner outfielder. He is the best hitting prospect I have seen come through Quad Cities.
Posted this before, but Matt Adams has 6 homers in his last 9 games. That is ridiculous. ‘Nuff said :)
Also as a sidenote Adams almost has the Cards Triple Crown. He is leading in HR and RBI and second in avg. He could turn into a legit prospect with another good season especially since he is doing it in the upper minors. If we sign Pujols in the offseason he could be a legit trade chip.
I think he is a legitimate prospect. And I don’t care if some folks don’t like his body very much.
Agreed – But 1B prospects have to continuously hit the cover off the ball since their D value and flexibility are usually limited. So if he keeps hitting for avg and power against good competition (AA and AAA) then he will be viewed as a legit prospect outside of just the Cards mind.
If he had 65 speed and played a corner outfield spot like right field than you could excuse the fact that he doesn’t walk.
But since he happens to be a big bodied, lumbering type first baseman, the free swinging is quite inexcusable.
Is he free swinging though because he’s hitting the ball really hard which is obvious from his numbers. I agree if he’s not getting a good pitch to hit then he should take a walk, but if hes getting a good hitters pitch there is no reason he shouldn’t be swinging. Have you listened to any of this games or watched him either? Are his AB’s 2 pitch at bats or does he work the count find his pitch and hit it?
Adams is actually 1st in average. Batting .321, which is .010 higher than Jackson. So he has the Cards triple crown.
Adams compared to the rest of the Texas League: #6 in BA, tied for #2 in homers, #4 in RBIs, and #8 in OPS.
Nice to have a position prospect like that. Keep it up Adams!
Ahmady is hitting .337 between PB and SPR so he is behind him.
Ahmady at Springfield has 4 ABs and a .250 batting average. So not only does he have a lower batting average at Springfield, but he doesn’t even have close to enough requisite ABs to be compared.
“between”
I’m pretty sure he was referring to the triple crown for the minor league system. That would include all players accross all levels.
Ah, ok. That would explain the confusion then. When he said “Cards”, I figured he meant Springfield Cardinals.
Yes…I was referring to the Triple Crown for all levels of the system combined…which makes it even more impressive.
I was just wondering when there were going to be some posts about the 2011. I know I’m not the only one who thinks of draft day as a 2nd christmas.
2011 draft that is
I will be doing some writeups fairly soon over at Redbird Dugout. It just starting to get close enough to the draft to start throwing some names around. Keep in mind many draft heads consider this one of the most talented and deepest drafts in the past decade at least. This would have been a great year to have a Supp pick or 2!
My excitement over the pitching running around this organization is uncontainable… Still, wish that there was more hitting.
I was at the Memphis game and posted a long summary in the 5/6 DFR, since this one wasn’t up yet when I went to bed and I was pretty sure I’d forget most of the action by morning — maybe “hoped” is more like it because it was an ugly game for both sides. Short version: Carpenter plays baseball well and with enthusiasm; Valdes and King can’t pitch (12 pitches, 10 balls, 2 BB and a HBP), Kozma can’t hit (although he had a nice DP turn), Brown can’t play defense (almost splattered Chambers on a routine fly), too many pitches got away from Cruz although he otherwise looked OK, and the game had the weirdest ending I’ve ever seen. More in the other thread.
Did you get any insight or impressions of Brown’s bat? I know he’s hit an RBI six of the last seven games so he is starting to heat up a bit.
OK without being special.
Part of that diffidence is that it was a weird night for pitchers. Neither starter (Raul Valdes for Memphis, quad-A guy John Ely for Albuquerque) ever got above 88 on the stadium radar gun (we’d honestly started to think it was reading low until Marte got out there), and both were offering mainly junk rather than overpowering stuff. It seemed to work against the AAA hitters, of whom there were many on both sides including Brown, but got some pitches smoked by guys who have seen what major-league breaking stuff looks like. I don’t remember Brown being among the Redbirds who were smoking Ely’s 87-mph fastball or 80-mph off-speed stuff. He wasn’t completely embarrassed, either. So how’s that for a lukewarm endorsement? ;-)
One other thing: the one Redbird who looked significantly better than I expected him to was Chuckie Fick. I’d thought of him as dubious organizational filler, but he inherited the bases-loaded, no-outs mess generated by King (who just looked awful), attacked with good poise and stuff, and had a real chance to get out of it but for what was doubtfully called a wild pitch — looked like it caromed off Cruz’s shin guard and bounced a long way, but a ball that hits the shin guard on the fly should be caught, or at least gloved and corraled. Ironically, that was Cruz’s sole significant defensive lapse, IIRC.
137 594 502 81 157 22 2 27 112 2 1 71 80 .313 .409 .526 .935
121 510 464 71 144 41 0 22 88 5 1 33 78 .310 .355 .541 .896
Look at those 2 lines….both in the Midwest League in the same type of parks. The only difference is the top took more walks and had a higher OBP.
The guy on top is Prince Fielder the guy on bottom is Matt Adams. BTW Fielder had already had 30 games in the MidWest League the year before where he only hit .242 with 3 homeruns at 11 RBIs. So Kdizzle and Richard are you saying that the 36 walks more in a season made Fielder that much more of a better prospect than Adams? Fielder was the number 10 prospect in baseball after this season in 03.
That’s not really a fair comparison Andrew, considering that Matt Adams was 22 when he put up that line, while Prince Fielder was only 19.
Fielder was a 1st round pick who probably played against elite competition and travelling baseball while Adams was older but played JC baseball. I don’t think that its a given that Adams was a more advanced player just because of age.
Andrew, you are smarter than that! You are going to compare a kid who was 18 when the season opened to a kid who was 21 when the season opened? The hardest thing for young hitters to develop is plate discipline yet Fielder showed this at an age much younger than Adams. He also showed more HR power despite being much younger. This is just a stupid comparison!
Let me show you another Midwest league player line (he was 2 years older than Adams at the time – though the same amount of professional experience – so I guess that’s fair game in your book).
.341 67 261 39 89 19 2 14 52 154 17 42 2 1 .384 .590 .974
This guy was a Cardinal first base prospect. He flamed out 2 year later in Springfield. Adams hasn’t flamed out yet (nor do I expect him to) but just using a stat line to compare players is silly. It is one indicator. But you also have to look at a player’s tools (bat speed being one for hitters) you also have to look at peripherals such as walk rates, LD rates, etc. would you say that pitcher peripherals such as BB rates, K rates, ground ball rates, HR rates are of little importance? If not, why wouldn’t they be important for a hitter. And of course age and league is also a huge factor.
It wasn’t the 36 walks that made Fielder a better prospect. It was his age, tools, and his peripherals all put together (though in his case age had a lot to do with it).
the line above belonged to a 23 y.o Brandon Buckman.
I’m not saying they are the same prospect I’m asking people on this site who writes off Adams already based on the body how thats justified when someone who had a worse body was rated the 10th best prospect in baseball after his MWL season. It should be noted that Fielder had more minor league games under his belt when he hit MWL than Adams did. Fielder was no doubt more pedigreed and probably played better competition in high school travelling baseball than Adams did in JC. Trust me I don’t think Adams will be as good as Fielder i just posted this to see if they could continue to justify them dismissing Adams completely.
I agree with cario…using an elite prospect despite his bad body to pump up Adams’ potential is not a valid exercise. Fielder was a top 15 Baseball America prospect for 3 seasons (10, 15, and 11) before making the jump to the majors at the end of 2005. Adams has some good potential, but he’s no where near the same level of prospect, and his bad body is much more of a concern than Fielder (or Wallace), who’s bad body simply limited the position they could play.
No-one’s writing off Adams based on his body. But it DOES mean that he needs to be an elite hitter to be an impact major leaguer, and most of us don’t think that’s very likely given that he’s not shown a great deal of plate discipline so far in his career, and has put up his (admittedly impressive) numbers in a very good hitting environment.
I dunno if anyone’s writing off Adams completely, but I imagine most here would agree that his upside is probably a league-average MLB 1st baseman. Considering you can pick up guys like Russell Branyan every year for a couple of million, that’s probably not a massively exciting prospect. I’m sure everyone will eat plenty of crow if he turns into the next Fielder or Howard but the odds on that are pretty tiny.
Again I’m not saying he’s the same level of prospect just trying to find out why one was a Top 20 guy and the other is an unknown? Does Adams have less physical power than Fielder? Probably isn’t a 390 foot homerun count the same as a 460 foot home run? Why is Adams body more of a concern than Fielder?
A 460 ft. homerun doesn’t count any more than a 390 ft. homerun, but it may mean that one player’s 370 ft. homerun would be another’s 320 ft. long out.
Bottom line question since there’re strong opinions floating around here: All things considered, do you expect Matt Adams to be at least an average Major League first baseman?
Me yes I believe he will be an above average 1b.
I would bet big $ on even money that he will not be an average starting ML first baseman (let’s say avg is .870 OPS and avg defense.) The odds are way against him (and in my favor). that doesn’t mean I think he cant be or doesn’t have the potential.
Alot of his has to do with getting a chance. Hamilton would be a pretty good 1b if he was in another franchise. If Pujols leaves I believe Adams will be the 2013 opening day starter for the Cardinals. I hope that doesn’t happen though. I hope he raises his value, we resign Pujols and then trade Adams to the AL.
“Hamilton would be a pretty good 1b if he was in another franchise.”
Gah! Andrew, no. Mark Hamilton is a tepid bench bat to say nothing of being an everyday first baseman. You are way underestimating the amount of offense required from a firstbaseman.
So the fact he’s been Memphis’s best hitter the last 2 years means nothing?
You realize that there have not been that many good hitters in Memphis the last few years don’t ya? Craig and Jay in ’09 and ’10…but no one else jumps out at me that was solid offensive talent from ’09 to present in Memphis. And Craig has dominated the minors from a hitting perspective and he was never a top prospect nor has he turned into a solid everyday MLB player at this point. Hamilton would not be a good prospect in any system (except the Brewers currently!!!). He is nothing more than a potential power bat off the bench in the Bigs…and even that is questionable.
Tell me how Craig could turn into a solid everyday player? He was platooned last year and is on the bench this year.
My point is that you are saying because Hamilton was one of the best Memphis hitters over the last 2 years should mean something. I am showing that Craig was the same thing (and probably better) and he is a platoon/bench player. So saying since he was one of the best hitters at Memphis the last few years as your reasoning is totally irrelevant.
Allen Craig and Mark Hamilton would be everyday players if they played for clubs like Pittsburg or Washington. Just depends on the franchise or who their daddy is.
Chris Duncan was not an everyday player yet TL ran him out there every day because of who his daddy was.
Everything is debatable….
Once again stats don’t matter its all about talent an projectable upside, those line were similar but yet Prince was the top prospect in the Midwest League and Adams was non rated in Top 20.
You mentioned in the other thread that you had talked to scouts about Adams and they talked about why they don’t like him? Please share this with us. Wondering if they don’t like his bat speed or what about his game don’t think like?
All dislike his body and none think his approach will carry over to the next level. The 3 I have been lucky enough to talk to at length all say roughly the same thing that he can get away with swinging big and getting his hits off pitchers who make tons of mistakes but when the mistakes are gone and the parks are bigger its going to kill his offense since he doesn’t walk a lot and his OBP will take a big hit with the lower BA and the the power bat isn’t going to as effective,
This doesn’t make sense to me really. I get the bad body. How often have these scouts seen him? Does he just “swing big” or does he have legit power? He doesn’t seem to be Mark Reynolds type who either hits a HR or K’s. Adams seems to have alot of singles and doubles also. I would like to know if the scouts have seen his approach or if they are jsut going based on what he’s heard. It seems like the scouts reasoned through this arguement rather than actually saw him. How do they know he gets his hits off hitters who make a ton of mistakes?
I’d say the jury is out on his legit power. He didn’t show great HR power last year. He is showing more this year but look where he is playing. Not saying he doesn’t have it or isn’t developing it but its not a slam dunk yet.
22 homeruns is pretty impressive though I think at least.
So you must really have been impressed by the fact that Fielder hit 30% more while nearly 3 years younger!
Do you not realise that Mark Reynolds had a .300+ BA across high-A and AA? He was the type who hit plenty of singles & doubles off crappy A+ and AA pitchers as well, and completely lost that ability as he’s faced better competition.
Luckily, Reynolds’ power was legit, he maintained a decent walkrate (his major league BB% is higher than anything Adams has ever done in the low-to-mid minors), and was (at least for a while) considered a competent 3B and/or an average defensive 1B. Adams has some pop, but the walkrate isn’t there yet (and I’d personally bet that it won’t appear at all), and there are major defensive question marks.
I should also point out that Reynolds has only been a league-average player so far in his career, and has the sort of skillset that probably means he’ll be out of the game in his early-30s. Adams has got a long way to go to turn into that sort of player, and I’d think that’s really more or less his upside at this point.
have you ever watched Adams play? Why does he not strike out like Reynolds? He surely has a better average than him.
“Why does he not strike out like Reynolds?”
To at least some extent, because Reynolds plays in MLB and Adams plays in AA.
Just because Adams (like Reynolds) is able to maintain a high BA in the low-and-mid minors does NOT mean he’ll be able to do it against major-league pitchers with major-league breaking balls. That’s the point I’m making.
And yes, Reynolds had a higher K-rate in AA than Adams, but he also had a much better walk-rate (for reference, Adams has a 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio this year, Reynolds, at the same level, had a 2-to-1 ratio), AND, as I said, hit for a .300+ average at the same level.
Just because Adams can swing at everything in AA and maintain a high batting average, doesn’t mean he’s going to be able to hit a major-league breaking ball for squat. That’s the point, I think, that everyone’s trying to make.
In answer to your other question – no, I have not seen Matt Adams play. I haven’t watched any Springfield games yet this year but I’ll probably catch one or two when they’re on MiLBTV.
They’re scouts so yes they seen him play and the one’s I talked to don’t’ think he has major power, they say he has some pop but its not going to make up for what will happen with his BA and in turn his OBP dipping once he faces more elite pitching who don’t make so many mistakes.
I appreciate that the scouts have a way better idea than we do about most prospects but I sometimes think that the “bad body” tag can be overstated. When a player is labeled as having that I’d like to know what that means in terms of limitations in their performance. Kent Hrbek certainly started with a “better” body than Adams at the same age but it got progressively “worse” over the years without decreasing either his offensive or defensive abilities. John Kruk was a decent major league first baseman with a pretty “bad body”. If Adams really is a bad defender because of his mobility that is one thing but it is another if he is just projected to be a weak defender because of his body type. As for offense I don’t think we have another prospect who has thrived in four different age appropriate leagues so I won’t give up on Adams until he fails somewhere.
Those guys had far better bodies at same age and both walked the around the same amount of times as they SO in majors and more than they SO in minors.
Your overstating this walks thing, Give Adams another year in the minors and see his walks then if its something that they start to focus on. The guy was THE only bat in Quad Cities and took it upon himself to carry the team. That meant extending his zone or hitting the first good hitters pitch he saw. OBP is important but do you really want your number 3 guy drawing walks when the team has a bunch of weak hittesr around him. That was Adams situation last year.
You mean the scouts are overstating the walks? But personally I went my guys to walk and not chase out of the zone even if the rest of the order was filled with bad hitting pitchers because the minors aren’t about winning games its about devolving skills.
He hit .310 last year and is hitting about .325 this year. He was the main run producer on that team. Just because a guy can take a walk doesnt mean he should especially when he has no one around him. I want my guys to have high OBP for sure but I also want someone who can hit the ball and drive in runs. I followed QC last yaer and the offense was really weak most of the year. I saw Adams play quite a few times, hes nto a free swinger.
If its a ball he should walk, he isn’t going to be hitting that high in the majors so he needs to polish is eye now or he will not last long when he sees better pitching. Its not about winning down there so I don’t care how bad the others are in QC because he isn’t going to be asked to be the man if he makes to St Louis.
I don’t think eyes need polished honestly. He’s not a free swinger, he doesn’t K much just doesn’t walk much either. He takes good AB’s and hits good hitters pitchs. I do believe he will increase his walkrate though.
That’s your feeling and that fine but with his offensive numbers and low walks something is off. With him being the only threat he should have more walks by default just from teams pitching around him.
Don’t know but we will see I guess in the future.
“Just because a guy can take a walk doesnt mean he should especially when he has no one around him.”
That’s a ridiculous statement, sorry. In almost every situation in which a hitter will ever come up to bat, a walk is more valuable than his “average” outcome. There’s virtually no situation in baseball when a walk can be considered a bad result for the hitting team and a good result for the fielding team.
A hitter who walked in every single at-bat would be by far the most valuable player in the history of baseball.
Wonder if you have ever played baseball on a bad team where your expected to do the brunt of the run production?
And the reason in JC where there were other hitters was…….? The reason in Springfield were there are other hitters is ……..?
But I definitely agree with the above comments. A walk is almost always better and if he is the only hitter how come he is not getting pitched around. emotional attachment still seems to be trumping logical consistency in this discussion.
Ok sounds good, not buying that he isn’t also a good hitter also. He hit 500 in college. He hit .355 in rookie ball over 2 levels nad hit .310 at Quad Cities. They may be right he just swings for the fence and right now he just happens to get lucky with alot more bad pitchers than others in the league, but i doubt it.
You don’t have to buy it, but when 3 guys getting paid to be a scout all have roughly the same story about him I’m going to side with what they say. Numbers don’t mean a whole lot in the minors tons of guys get it done down there and only a few ever make it. Ifs fun to get excited about all our guys but out all the names we love only a few if we’re lucky will live up to what we expect of them and rest will never even make it into a prominent role if they make it at all.
I agree not everyone will make it. Scouts can be wrong too especially if they have preconcieved notions and if they have the story already scripted in there heads before seeing someone.
But the scouts, the numbers (considering his age, defensive value, and projected capabilities at a higher level given his poor BB%), and more or less everyone here seem to be in agreement on this one; that Adams is kinda an OK prospect but nothing special, and a very low % chance of ever being more than a fringey major league player.
Prince Fielder is definitely the wrong comparison. If you want a bad-body guy who’s more age-appropriate there are a ton of better options. An optimistic one is Ryan Howard, who was mediocre in A ball at that age. Another is Calvin Pickering, who was briefly a Ken Phelps All-Star with the Royals; at 22 he hit .308/.434/.566 in AA. Jack Cust, who was a bad-body prospect at the time, hit .267/.415/.525 in AAA at 22. Travis Hafner hit .282/.387/.546 in the Sally League, but the next year hit .346/.447/.580 in the FSL.
Guys who can hit will always have a place in the minors, and they’ll always be a few injuries away from having Jack Cust’s career, but I think the offensive replacement level is just too high at first base for a guy with such a low walk rate to stick. The average 1B line in the NL last year was something like .270/.350/.460.
All we know at this point is his history of taking walks not his ability to. He was THE guy last year and his manager said he perhaps too it upon himself too much. Why work the walk when your the only threat in the lineup? The fact that he consistently makes hard contact shows me he has a pretty good idea what to do at the plate.
I was curious about hte comp between him and Fielder so I looked it up. I noticed they had similar stats at class A, both skipped high A and both played a full 66-70 games in rookie ball. In fact Fielder had 30 games of low A where he didn’t do well. Adams didnt have that chance to adjust to the new level. So that comp is pretty good in my opinion. I’m also not convinced he can’t take a walk. Its also interesting that of Fielders walks that year 16 were intentional.
If you can’t contemplate the concept of age relative to level, than its pretty much a useless enterprise to attempt a remedy this ridiculous notion that Matt Adams has the same major league ceiling as Prince Fielder.
Educate yourself on the methods and zeitgeist used to prospect major league talent, please. And then come back and explain to us why your idea is so absurd.
See your completely missing what I’m saying. I never once said that Adams had the ceilling of Fielder. My entire point is how can someone so easily dimiss a player when a very similar player in terms of body type and production is a Top prospect. Age makes a difference yes you would have to imagine the players Fielder faced in the HS showcases were probably more talented than Adams faced in his small school. We have people completely discounting Adams as being a free swinger without watching him take 1 at bat.
He didn’t miss what you were saying he merely modified it to make your comments less appealing. No you didn’t suggest they had the same ceiling…but if you had, that would make you look sillier. Wouldn’t it?
I find the “scouts” commentary disingenuous. There are scouts and there are scouts. Scouts are responsible for Pujols being selected in the 13th round. Scouts develop opinions that sometimes pan out and often look stupid in retrospect. Prospects are rated by scouts but only confirmed by their play at the next level. That will be the case for Matt Adams too.
Matt Adams failure to walk is a concern. But his K rate doesn’t appear to be sending out any alarms. Until it does, this problem may be moot. Perhaps he can indeed take a walk but hasn’t been forced to do so yet. He makes solid contact as a general rule and hits the ball damned hard. That’s still what we’re looking for.
Yes Fielder was pretty young when those numbers were generated. But Fielder was the son of a major league ballplayer who was hitting balls out of Detroit stadium at the age of 12. Just sayin’ it’s hard to tell when Fielder’s ceiling was actually reached. Don’t care.
Matt Adams has yet to find a league that he can’t hit in. That includes AA after jumping from low A. I’m betting that he will hit in Memphis as well.
Until he is required to take pitches, I see no reason for him to do so. Clearly, that is at issue.
I have continued to hear the notion of bad body… Does the guy need to strip down to his tighty whities like they do at the NFL combine and have everybody take his measurements and body fat count. Fact is the guy has hit at every level. The other fact is he only struck out last year 78 times last year in 468 AB’s (that’s 1 out of every 6 AB’s). The other fact is that he has now jumped high A ball and is batting .325 avg 9 hr 27rbi and has only struck out 20 times in 115 ab’s (that’s a ration of 1 so per 5.75 AB’s).
Can anyone tell me of any recent cards hitting prospects that have made the jump from low A ball to AA and didn’t stink the place up? This hasn’t happened since Brett Wallace came thru.
Adams
April .311 avg
May .360 avg
Lets wait and see if he hits this well at AAA. Well see what happens.
The other issue at hand is every day players at the ML level. Allen Craig and Mark Hamilton could be everyday players for both the Pirates and Nationals and a few other clubs.
I couldn’t have said it better
“Can anyone tell me of any recent cards hitting prospects that have made the jump from low A ball to AA and didn’t stink the place up?”
That’s kind of a disingenuous question, because I’m struggling to name more than 2 or 3 prospects AT ALL who skipped high-A in recent years. I’d say our organisation is generally fairly conservative when it comes to promotion of minor leaguers.
Actually, I don’t think it is a disingenuous question. It isn’t done very often because it’s very hard to do successfully. Adams however, does appear to have pulled it off.
Speaking of Comparisons you may want to look at the numbers on the link below;
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=477165
2008
QC 32 so in 153 abs .327 avg age 21
SPR 7 so in 49 abs .367 avg age 22
2009
SPR 34 so in 128 abs .281 avg age 22
MEM 42 so in 222 abs .293 avg age 22
SAC 40 so in 182 abs .302 avg age 23
2010
LAS 83 so in 385 abs .301 avg age 23 & 24
2011
ml 23 so in 109 abs .339 avg age 24
Stats don’t matter one bit and I’m not sure why people try to compare guys who had a name in the prospect world with guys who don’t. Adams had all those stats leading up to this year and didn’t even make his leagues Top 20 last season. Mark Hamilton isn’t starting for any MLB club for sure if he could they would have trade him and get something of value for him. He’s about to be 27 and if Pujols gets hurt Berkman is moving to 1B for Craig and Jay.
Actually both of them are about the same size. One more prpotional than the other. That is Wallace being more thick in the legs.
As far as Hamilton… they won’t trade him becasue they will not be signing AP. Don’t be too surprised if AP and Chris Carpenter are traded by the trade dealine this year.
First I doubt AP would be willing to waive his 10-5 and tarnish his legacy with a brief 3rd team stop, 2nd the deadline is only around 75 games away and it would take a ton of losses for them the throw in the towel since they’re in first now and lastly if both CC and AP are gone they sure as heck aren’t going to give 1st to an unproven 27 and a half year old Hamilton with the amount of fan unrest they would be facing.
Here’s a link to an Article that talks about Adams
http://www.news-leader.com/article/20110407/SPORTS02/104070369/Cardinals-ex-citing-factors
Because he is unlike other hulking sluggers who tend to swing for the fences, the Cardinals are optimistic that Adams — a 6-foot-3, 230-pounder who bats left-handed — can survive in the Texas League.
He does not have a swing full of holes, the Cardinals say, which helps Adams hit for both power and average. His stats of 2010 is evidence: .310 average, 22 home runs, 41 doubles and 78 strikeouts in 464 at-bats.
“Right now, he looks fantastic. You don’t see him chasing (pitches) too much,” Pham said. “Seeing him go out and try to be the best is only going to make me want to bring the best out in myself.”
Adams’ patience in not swinging for the fences was developed years ago, he explained.
The JV field back at Philipsburg-Osceola (Pa.) Senior High School did not have an outfield fence, so Adams trained himself during his freshman season to become a gap-to-gap, line-drive hitter instead of a one-dimensional slugger.
That 230 listed always makes me smile. They say his measurements are the exact same as Pujols or the same as Yadi at 4 inch taller or 10 points lighter than Nick Stavinoha with being an inch taller.
I agree that he is more like 250 or 260. I would like to see the guy at Memphis so I can get a look at him on MilbTV and see how his swing and play is.
FWIW I think Adams is probably a top-20 prospect now for us, arguably even top-15 or so. I’m just not convinced of this idea that he’s anything other than a VERY marginal chance at being an average or better major leaguer.
If we have 10 prospects ahead of Matt Adams, we have a very good system. He seems to be Brett Wallace 2.0, but with a position…it’s a shame that said position is not a great need for the big league club.
We’ll see whether there is a great need for it, next year. There’s still a problem matching up supply and demand. It would be nice to have a backup plan.
Brett Wallace had a position. From what I’ve heard, Adams is no better than Wallace at 1B and has not even been considered as a possible 3B (as Wallace was until it was clear he wasn’t going to make it there).
Just off the top of my head: Miller, Martinez, Cox, Jenkins, Taveras, Carpenter, Lynn, Swagerty, Kelly, Hooker, Pham, and maybe Rosenthal, Jackson, Stanley, Blair. Probably some others I’ve forgotten as well. I wouldn’t swap any of those guys for Adams (with the possible exception of Blair). That puts him around the 15/16 mark in my book, not including Salas and Sanchez who both currently count as “prospects” with only a dozwen or so MLB IP, and there’s probably some other guys I’ve forgotten.
Wallace didn’t have a position because he had Pujols ahead of him. It wouldn’t have been fair to him if he had STILL been in our minor league system. Wasn’t he to Springfield or even Memphis already bu 2009. It would have been criminal to just keep in there waiting for the day Pujols might leave.
But, that’s just your opinion. I think that Matt Adams is more important to our system than many of the players you’ve listed…particularly if Albert is not signed. Our farm system is hitter bereft.
Unless Cox begins to improve his slugging percentage, I’m not sure why it’s a given that he’s higher on our prospect list than Adams. The age differential isn’t great and Adams is doing much better at a higher level.
Pham? How is that a given?
Blair? Why?
Hooker? He wasn’t in our top 15 by most accounts and he’s struggled this year.
Salas and, probably, Sanchez will be off the list by the end of the year.
I can remember when the Penguin was tagged with a bad body until they found out that his fat content was 9%. He was a heckuva 3rd baseman.
Cox has more talent and upside, he can have a terrible year this year and will be rated higher than Adams,
Not sure I see the extra talent and upside in Cox. But your right Cox can hit .270 with all singles and will still be rated higher.
Maybe. But he’s a bad bodied 3rd baseman who doesn’t project anywhere else with a .629 OPS and 4 walks this year. I don’t think a continuation of this performance keeps him in the elite category. That he might still be rated higher in the system tells me more about the scouts than it does Cox’s abilities.
I agree, just seeing how Richard responds to this after the big argument about Adams. What’s worse a bad bodied 1b that has power but doesn’t walk or a bad bodied 3b who has no power and doesn’t produce enough runs for his position?
I too question Cox’s power but If Adams was in the FSL and Cox in TL the XBH story would be different since their home parks are the best and worst offensive parks in their leagues which are already in hitters and pitchers leagues.
Cox’s body isn’t the best in he world but its far better than Adams, and I think he will be able to make the move to 2nd where his power will be plenty good enough. As for 2011 stats you also have to factor in Cox is jumping up to High A after 15 pro AB’s while Adams jumped High A with almost 700 more AB’s.
Its about talent and upside that’s why Cox was 62nd in Baseball America’s Top 100 after 15 st bats and Adams wasn’t even ranked in his leagues Top 20 after leading the league in production.
The list has more to do with pedigree than hitting talent IMO. Cox’s should have alot of doubles with the large parks in the FSl. I’m ok without the homeruns but the fact that he hasn’t hit a gap or hit a ground ball that rolled to the wall.
Fact his High A is supposed to be a conservative move for Cox, there were people via’ing for him to go straight to Springfield out of college. Adams jumped high A which is very impresive.
Essentially Cox has no excuse to not be hitting alot of doubles. I forgive his lack of HR pop but any good hitter should have alot of doubles in the FSL.
You don’t get a pedigree without talent. He should have more doubles buts its only 100 Cox isn’t going to be that low all year and Adams isn’t going to be hitting HR at this rate all year eitherr.
“The list has more to do with pedigree than hitting talent IMO.”
OK then, why don’t we compare the BA top 10 hitters from each of the last 10 years to the top 10 hitters in terms of production from each of the high-A leagues in the country, and see which list produced the most productive major league players.
I can’t believe I’m arguing in favour of Zack Cox, who I’m really not sold on, but suggesting Cox has a worse MLB projection than Matt f’ing Adams is ridiculous.
You guys seem to have absolutely no clue about sample sizes. Cox has had barely 100 professional plate appearances and already “doesn’t produce enough runs for his position”.
I suspect if this argument is dragged down to your level, you’ll beat us with experience…
“Unless Cox begins to improve his slugging percentage, I’m not sure why it’s a given that he’s higher on our prospect list than Adams.”
Cox has had like 120-odd professional PAs, and was rated by many among the top 10-15 prospects in last year’s draft. I’m not a big Cox fan, and I don’t think he has a great ceiling, but it’s a bit early to start pushing him down the ranks based on his first month of pro baseball. Let’s see how he’s hit come the end of the year. To say that 120-odd PAs suddenly push Cox below a bad-bodied 1B who can’t take a walk and was drafted in the 20s is a crazy abuse of sample sizes.
“Pham? How is that a given?”
Because Pham has similar AA hitting numbers to Adams (.400+ wOBA), with a higher BABIP but also a higher (and presumably more sustainable in AAA and MLB) walkrate, and he’s only 5 months older. He’s also a centerfielder. You do realise that the positional adjustment from 1B to CF is like 12 runs? Adams has to project as a MUCH better hitter than Pham to be as valuable, and so far the jury’s out on which of the two is going to hit better in the show. Advantage Pham.
“Blair? Why?”
FWIW I didn’t like the Blair draft much, and I *possibly* have him below Adams in my list. But the guy was drafted in the first round (albeit as a supp pick) and was ranked by most in the top 50-60 names in last year’s draft. I can’t believe he’s become a terrible pitcher overnight, although the complete loss of control so far is concerning.
“Hooker? He wasn’t in our top 15 by most accounts and he’s struggled this year.”
I think most everyone had him at the tail end of their top 10s last year but nvm. Anyhow, he’s a year younger than Adams, and he was dominant (with good peripherals) at an age-appropriate level last year. Again, you’re writing him off after 5 starts when he’s seemingly got a bit unlucky with HR (does anyone believe that a guy with 50%+ GB rate in single-A is suddenly a true-talent 1.4HR/9 guy in AA?). I like the look of him, and I think his stuff profiles as a possible major league starter (whereas the jury’s maybe out on that regard on guys like Kelly and Swagerty). I guess Hooker, like Blair, could be argued on either side of Adams but I’d wager that most prospect-watchers and scouts will have those two ahead of Adams (like I said, I could actually have Blair below him on my list, as he looks like a middle-reliever to me).
I also forgot Maikel Cleto from my list.
Also we will have a 1st round draft pick in there too (hopefully). Hooker? really?
I really like Hooker, and I think quite a few others do as well. He’s no sure thing but I think he’s got a bit more upside than some of our other middling pitching prospects.