As far as Hamilton… they won’t trade him becasue they will not be signing AP. Don’t be too surprised if AP and Chris Carpenter are traded by the trade dealine this year.

OK then, why don’t we compare the BA top 10 hitters from each of the last 10 years to the top 10 hitters in terms of production from each of the high-A leagues in the country, and see which list produced the most productive major league players.

I can’t believe I’m arguing in favour of Zack Cox, who I’m really not sold on, but suggesting Cox has a worse MLB projection than Matt f’ing Adams is ridiculous.

I suspect if this argument is dragged down to your level, you’ll beat us with experience…

Cox has had like 120-odd professional PAs, and was rated by many among the top 10-15 prospects in last year’s draft. I’m not a big Cox fan, and I don’t think he has a great ceiling, but it’s a bit early to start pushing him down the ranks based on his first month of pro baseball. Let’s see how he’s hit come the end of the year. To say that 120-odd PAs suddenly push Cox below a bad-bodied 1B who can’t take a walk and was drafted in the 20s is a crazy abuse of sample sizes.

“Pham? How is that a given?”

Because Pham has similar AA hitting numbers to Adams (.400+ wOBA), with a higher BABIP but also a higher (and presumably more sustainable in AAA and MLB) walkrate, and he’s only 5 months older. He’s also a centerfielder. You do realise that the positional adjustment from 1B to CF is like 12 runs? Adams has to project as a MUCH better hitter than Pham to be as valuable, and so far the jury’s out on which of the two is going to hit better in the show. Advantage Pham.

“Blair? Why?”

FWIW I didn’t like the Blair draft much, and I *possibly* have him below Adams in my list. But the guy was drafted in the first round (albeit as a supp pick) and was ranked by most in the top 50-60 names in last year’s draft. I can’t believe he’s become a terrible pitcher overnight, although the complete loss of control so far is concerning.

“Hooker? He wasn’t in our top 15 by most accounts and he’s struggled this year.”

I think most everyone had him at the tail end of their top 10s last year but nvm. Anyhow, he’s a year younger than Adams, and he was dominant (with good peripherals) at an age-appropriate level last year. Again, you’re writing him off after 5 starts when he’s seemingly got a bit unlucky with HR (does anyone believe that a guy with 50%+ GB rate in single-A is suddenly a true-talent 1.4HR/9 guy in AA?). I like the look of him, and I think his stuff profiles as a possible major league starter (whereas the jury’s maybe out on that regard on guys like Kelly and Swagerty). I guess Hooker, like Blair, could be argued on either side of Adams but I’d wager that most prospect-watchers and scouts will have those two ahead of Adams (like I said, I could actually have Blair below him on my list, as he looks like a middle-reliever to me).

I also forgot Maikel Cleto from my list.

Fact his High A is supposed to be a conservative move for Cox, there were people via’ing for him to go straight to Springfield out of college. Adams jumped high A which is very impresive.

Essentially Cox has no excuse to not be hitting alot of doubles. I forgive his lack of HR pop but any good hitter should have alot of doubles in the FSL.

Cox’s body isn’t the best in he world but its far better than Adams, and I think he will be able to make the move to 2nd where his power will be plenty good enough. As for 2011 stats you also have to factor in Cox is jumping up to High A after 15 pro AB’s while Adams jumped High A with almost 700 more AB’s.

Its about talent and upside that’s why Cox was 62nd in Baseball America’s Top 100 after 15 st bats and Adams wasn’t even ranked in his leagues Top 20 after leading the league in production.