There’s been a lot of discussion in the comments lately about what Matt Adams ceiling is or what a first baseman in the majors looks like. I thought I’d provide a spectrum of outcomes for the major league level to show what kind of offense and defense is required to be an average (2 WAR) player.
So the below table is based on a full season defensive performance (150 defensive games) and offensive performance (700 PAs).
(.325 wOBA LgAvg)
|2010 Player Equivalent||Rough
So the question becomes whether Matt Adams can replicate something around a .300/.345/.480 offensive slash line as he’s almost certainly a -5 defender at first. Put another way, Adams needs to be approximately 20% better than the average offensive line to be a 2 WAR player.
2 WAR is a rather ordinary player as well. That would have made them the 9th best player on the Cardinals in 2010 — not exactly a standout contributor. I’ll have more comments on Adams (and other Springfield players) in my game notes on Friday but I hope this helps clarify the expectations for being an average player at 1B.