There’s been a lot of discussion in the comments lately about what Matt Adams ceiling is or what a first baseman in the majors looks like. I thought I’d provide a spectrum of outcomes for the major league level to show what kind of offense and defense is required to be an average (2 WAR) player.
So the below table is based on a full season defensive performance (150 defensive games) and offensive performance (700 PAs).
| Defense (Runs) |
Replacement (Runs) |
Position Adjustment (Runs |
Offense (.325 wOBA LgAvg) |
2010 Player Equivalent | Rough OBP/SLG Equivalent |
| -10 | 20 | -12.5 | 0.361 | Ryan Howard | .350/.500 |
| -5 | 20 | -12.5 | 0.353 | N/A | .345/.480 |
| 0 | 20 | -12.5 | 0.345 | Gaby Sanchez | .340/.460 |
| 5 | 20 | -12.5 | 0.337 | Adam LaRoche | .335/.440 |
| 10 | 20 | -12.5 | 0.329 | N/A | .330/.420 |
So the question becomes whether Matt Adams can replicate something around a .300/.345/.480 offensive slash line as he’s almost certainly a -5 defender at first. Put another way, Adams needs to be approximately 20% better than the average offensive line to be a 2 WAR player.
2 WAR is a rather ordinary player as well. That would have made them the 9th best player on the Cardinals in 2010 — not exactly a standout contributor. I’ll have more comments on Adams (and other Springfield players) in my game notes on Friday but I hope this helps clarify the expectations for being an average player at 1B.
Entries (RSS)
Thanks, azru.
Right now, it sure looks like Adams will have a lot more pop than a .180 Isolated Slugging going forward. His power has increased at every minor league stop, and he currently has an ISO of .300+ against both southpaws and normal people, and an ISO of .300+ both home and road.
So…if M.A. can put up an MLB line of, say, .300/.345/.530, well that’s more like a 3.5 WAR player.
Something about this straw man strikes me as odd, and notable for its connection to some other observations about Adams in other threads.
On looking at the first basemen who actually were 2-WAR players or better in 2010, a striking observation is that not one of them had an OBP as little as 45 points above their batting average. The closest was Paul Konerko (.312/.393/.584) with most being significantly more walk-oriented than that. In fact, not a single regular first baseman that I could find had a difference between OBP and BA as low as what’s being postulated for Adams here.
I realize that these numbers are to some extent pulled out of the air. However, one of two situations seems to exist. Either he’ll get better at drawing walks once he reaches the Show, or he won’t. If he does, the rest of his game looks more than adequate to provide above-average production at 1B. If he doesn’t … well, he doesn’t make it, if the evidence of last year’s 1Bmen means anything.
Wow, Ryan Howard is barely an average first baseman these days. amazing how little $25 million buys.
Another example of why the Cardinals need to be really careful with Pujols.
To some extent, although howard’s had far bigger red flags in terms of his future performance than Pujols. He’s a lower-contact guy (lower BA, more Ks), he’s always had a bad platoon split (which doesn’t bode well for him being more than a platoon piece in future), he’s always been a mediocre-to-poor defender, he arrived in the show at a later age and has a much shorter period of having been a good hitter (as well as less consistent performance), and he’s in pretty poor physical shape, i.e. he’s fat (like Matt Adams, in fact).
All that said, I think that contract kinda kills our chances with Pujols a little – if it’s used as a benchmark for a slugging first-baseman by Lozano, I don’t think we can afford Albert. I wouldn’t go beyond 8 yrs/200m personally, and even that is arguably a stretch.
“Where have you gone Harmon Killebrew? A nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you. Woo woo woo…..”
The Cards are literally 95% not going to sign AP for 25 or 30M because he is showing a glimpse of what will happen when he gets a long contract. The Cards are not the Yankees and can not afford to pay players 25M that are hitting .250. So get used to Mark Hamilton and Matt Adams after the all-star braek
Why wouldn’t albert be here after the ASB? No way we trade him if we’re still in contention. He’d probably bring back a high-end prospect, but he’ll be a type-A anyhow and I find it hard to believe they won’t want to be somewhere in the conversation with him at the end of the season, in case his market isn’t as strong as he thinks it is.
That would be the behavior of a franchise committing suicide.
So I find it hard to find it a realistic outcome.
This wouldn’t be the first time the Cardinals lost a first baseman..
Adams seems like he has some pretty legit contact and power skills, but needs to draw some walks if he’s ever going to be an above-average 1B. Seems like a guy that could do .280/.315/.470 or so in the majors. So, strictly in terms of offensive production, Hunter Pence on the high end and Jose Guillen on the low end.
I mean seven walks so far? Really? Hell, even Kozma has eight.
See, I don’t see this being a problem right now. Why should Adams take pitches when he’s on the hot streak he is on to start the season?
By expanding his zone, he is hitting everything in sight. It’s not like he’s just slugging without making good contact. His average is at .317 after tonight, good for top 10 in all of the Texas League.
He’ll need to take pitches when he starts facing better competition. But right now, I don’t see how taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches is important. He’s helped his team a lot more with his approach right now.
It’s not so much that he should take pitches, it’s that he’s in AA and, as yet, hasn’t shown an ability to do so in his minor league career (and thus, we can presume, hasn’t really practiced the skill much). It is a NECESSITY if he’s ever going to amount to anything in the major leagues, and AAA seems a little bit late to be learning that skill, to me.
It’s like a pitcher in AA who only throws a fastball – doesn’t matter how good the fastball is, if he wants to be a major league starter, he needs to learn a breaking pitch or two, and he’s getting a bit late in his career to do it.
This is a completely different situation. If Adams started pitches, that won’t make him a better player. What is the point of plate discipline? It is because it gets you a higher chance of getting on base or at the very least, putting yourself in the position more to get a good swing or a walk.
But Adams is actually making good contact a third of the time. He’s seeing the ball unbelievably well from what the stat sheet shows. When the guy has a .999 OPS and is making contact like Adams is, you don’t tell him to start taking pitches when he is having the kind of success he is having.
If Adams became more selective, there is no evidence to show that he would be hitting better or that would make him a better pitcher. If you put Adams at A ball right now, he could take a ton of pitches but he wouldn’t really learn anything and you would rob him of his success rate and the offense of a great bat.
Same here with AA. He’s seeing the ball well and his swing apparently is in a groove. When he is not swinging the bat well, then he needs to be more selective. Taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches doesn’t improve anything.
But taking walks is a far more sustainable way to maintain a performance. When the BIP luck evens out (and he’s not a fast guy, so it won’t stay this high forever) then he’s gonna need those walks.
BIP luck? I don’t have any evidence of that. It’s not like he’s hitting .400+ or anything. His BA is very good but it’s nothing absurd. .317 is quite sustainable.
If his bat starts to slip, then at that point, he’ll need to be more selective with his pitches. At this point, he’s on a tear and there’s no reason he needs to take pitches that he is putting a good swing on.
While I’m not convinced his BABIP is going to fall (it was .322 last year, and is .315 this year with marks of .391 and .387 for A ball clubs in 2009), his ISO is sure to drop some. His ISO rate is currently .336 (far above his previous performances). That would rank 2nd all-time as a career MLB ISO; just behind Babe Ruth at .348 and ahead of Big Mac at .325. In short: it’s not sustainable. Maybe Adams can keep hitting .317, but he won’t keep slugging .650.
His line could come down to .315/.345/.550 or so. That’s a prospect, sure, but it’s not an overwhelming talent. He could provide much more value with a line of .300/.370/.525. To do that, he either has to start drawing walks, or start getting hit by pitches. Optimistically, maybe he’ll start getting walks as pitchers start to pitch around him, but we haven’t seen that yet.
The low walk rate, this season and in his career, is concerning, and definitely limits his ceiling as a prospect.
Here’s a link every one should check out. Looks like we have 9 starting 1st basemen in the ML’s slugging under .400, 10 with an OPS under .800, and 9 batting under .250 avg yet they are all starters. I’m sure a number of teams would be glad to have Mark Hamilton and Matt Adams as their 1st baseman.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/1b/sort/OPS/order/true
Yes because Albert’s .780 OPS to start 2011 definitely means we’d rather have Hamilton and Adams as our firstbaseman. That’s an awfully questionable standard you’re applying. Besides the fact that 1) you’ve very little to no evidence that Adams would beat any of your thresholds and 2) you completely ignore the fact that 100PAs into the season isn’t at all indicative of these player’s true talent level.
I think the point is that I could take Mark Hamilton and play him every day and get these kind of numbers. A .200 to .230 avg from an everyday first baseman… I’m pretty sure Mark could put that up…
Yea, but over the course of a FULL SEASON, there are few (if any) everyday first basemen that bat .200 to .230, so whether or not Adams or Hamilton can do that is completely moot. A batting average of .200 to .230 is not the threshold for being a serviceable major league first baseman — it’s not a threshold for anything, because batting average is a poor measure of a player’s offensive value.
The main point that I looking at here is that Mark Hamilton will get no change to adjust to the major leagues sitting on the bench. He’s still on 26 years old and could play another 10 years if developed. If you look at the Braves Freddie Freeman for instance. Tony Larussa would have him sitting on the bench so much that he wouldn’t be able to make adjustments at the big league level. I’m also not saying that Mark Hamilton should be the everyday first baseman on the Cardinals because we are not the Nationals or Pirates. I am merely saying that Mark Hamilton would be recieving more playing time and could adjust to being an everyday player on lesser ML teams.
Freddie Freeman
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman
Justin Smoak
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/30175/justin-smoak
Here is yet another example of what I am talking about. Justin Smoak hit .218 last year but still got in 348 ab’s. Yet now he is an everyday player this year.
My main point is that I don’t like what Tony Larussa does to younger players. He stagnates any possibly development they could have and causes the team to have to play money ball with a few highly paid veterans. Developing younger players allows you have spread salary where you really need it. Like signing a closer when you need to. Or being able to sign a starting pitching. Lastly, I would much rather be signing a 25 year old player to a long term deal that a 32 year old AP. I don;t believe in paying 32 year old players for what they did 2 years ago. I believe in paying the for what I can expect for the next 5 years. And that is declining performance unless they are on roids.
When you are a Top 20 prospect in Baseball teams are going to play you for a good period of time no matter how bad you do. Why do people here always want to put top prospects in the game in the same league as our guys who aren’t even getting in their leagues Top 20 and are fighting to just be in our organizations top 20.
This is a ridiculous pair of comparisons. Freeman and Smoak are high-end prospects. Hamilton is AAAA filler.
Maybe Hamilton could be some sort of 2nd division starter if he was platooned to protect him against lefties, but I’m not sure how that helps the Cardinals. It’s not like we need a new first baseman at the moment. Maybe if Pujols doesn’t re-sign, Hamilton could be platooned with Craig at first, but it’s not a situation I’d be overly excited about.
Those 10 first basemen with an OPS under .800 are almost universally basically replacement-level or worse this year. Is that really the standard we want to aspire to?
Sure, Hamilton could be “an everyday first baseman” by this criteria, but he’d also be (by a distance) the worst player on a contending team.
I’m not really sure what point you’re making here.
I’m not saying that he would be the first baseman for a contending team. He would however be capable of playing on lesser teams with lower payroll.
I would bet all the money I could ever make that none of them would, all those guys hit in the minors too,
Baseball America 100 peak Ranking for those 9 under ,400
5 Carlos Pena
14 Justin Morneau
15 Derrek Lee
17 Freddie Freeman
28 Daric Barton
34 James Loney
43 Aubrey Huff
65 Lyle Overbay
73 Adam LaRoche
Can anybody point to an example of a player with a horrendous walk rate in the minors who improves his walk rate substantially in the majors over his minor league career?
I suspect guys with 3 percent walk rates in the minors rarely if ever become even 8 percent walkers in the majors.
I suspect that if the guy is smashing the ball there is no need to work the walk w hen your hitting good hitters pitches early in counts.
False.
Matt Adams is walking at a 5.5% clip in AA this year.
I had a look at all the hitters in MLB last season (2010) at players who had an identical, or lower, walkrate in the majors. Of those players, only 9 of them were league-average or better. Of those 9 players, NONE were first basemen.
5 of them were either shortstops or centrefielders (arguably the two hardest non-catcher fielding positions in the game). 2 of them were third-basemen with exceptional fielding numbers (Polanco and Kouzmanoff). The remaining two players were Delmon Young, a corner outfielder who was barely average and who has sucked every other year of his career, and Vlad Guerrero, who is perhaps the greatest bad-ball hitter of all time.
So if Adams isn’t going to start walking, is going to be a mediocre-fielding 1B, and wants to be a league-average player, he has to aspire to be, basically, as good a free-swinging hitter as late career Vlad Guerrero. I’m not putting a lot of money on that outcome, personally.
Additionally, I wanted to see how many of the guys who walk as infrequently as Adams (18.5%; I’d have liked to compare swinging strike rates, as well, but unfortunately I couldn’t find any swing data on AA players). The result? Only 4 players. Three of them are good-fielding shortstops or centre-fielders (Adam Jones, Alexi Gonzalez, Ian Desmond), and one of them is Jose Guillen, who has been one of the worst full-time players in baseball since 2006 and who now appears to pretty much be out of the game.
Bear in mind also we’re comparing the results of a fat first baseman in AA with actual major league players.
Finally, I wanted to find a competent hitter (league average or thereabouts) who doesn’t walk much and who put up similar BB% rates to Adams in the minor leagues. I thought I’d find one, but I literally couldn’t do it – in a few cases who I suspected might be good comps, it was impossible to obtain records going back far enough, admittedly, but I literally couldn’t find a single comparable hitter in the major leagues, who is about an average player, who plays to the easy end of the defensive spectrum, and who had a 5-6% BB rate in the low minors. I’m happy to be corrected on this one, though.
So – what Adams is doing is pretty cool, but unless he learns to take a few pitches he’s not only not an average major leaguer, but basically doesn’t compare to anyone in the majors at all.
Wow, FR totally ate half of the 6th paragraph there. What read:
“Additionally, I wanted to see how many of the guys who walk as infrequently as Adams (18.5%; I’d have liked to compare swinging strike rates, as well, but unfortunately I couldn’t find any swing data on AA players). The result? Only 4 players. Three of them are good-fielding shortstops or centre-fielders (Adam Jones, Alexi Gonzalez, Ian Desmond), and one of them is Jose Guillen, who has been one of the worst full-time players in baseball since 2006 and who now appears to pretty much be out of the game.”
Should have read:
“Additionally, I wanted to see how many of the guys who walk as infrequently as Adams (18.5%; I’d have liked to compare swinging strike rates, as well, but unfortunately I couldn’t find any swing data on AA players). The result? Only 4 players. Three of them are good-fielding shortstops or centre-fielders (Adam Jones, Alexi Gonzalez, Ian Desmond), and one of them is Jose Guillen, who has been one of the worst full-time players in baseball since 2006 and who now appears to pretty much be out of the game.
Jesus. Hashtags problem I think. It should read:
Additionally, I wanted to see how many of the guys who walk as infrequently as Adams (less than 5.5%) strike out as often as he does (more than 18.5%; I’d have liked to compare swinging strike rates, as well, but unfortunately I couldn’t find any swing data on AA players). The result? Only 4 players. Three of them are good-fielding shortstops or centre-fielders (Adam Jones, Alexi Gonzalez, Ian Desmond), and one of them is Jose Guillen, who has been one of the worst full-time players in baseball since 2006 and who now appears to pretty much be out of the game
I used the “>” and “<" characters, which apparently cause anything inside them to be removed from the post. Which is, y'know, helpful.
1) Adam’s K:BB ratio has gotten progressively worse each year.
2) Maybe he was really born in the Dominican :)
3) 5 errors for a 1B is a lot at this point in the year.
4) Adams is really raking right now. If he continues on this pace for another month, he’ll have a near 1.100 OPS.
I like number 2
I think a lot of the arguments here are hooey. Some acknowledge that many first basemen, including Albert, are going to improve their OPS…beyond 100 AB’s but that Adams is going to continue to walk at a 5.5% rate. What kind of thinking is that?
Adams is new to the league and he bounced up from low A. His body makes him suspect so pitchers are trying him out to see what gets by him. As it turns out, not that much.
Adams isn’t walking because he’s being challenged. He’s drilling the ball out of the park at a rather alarming rate which suggests that pitchers will start pitching a little more carefully. As they do, I figure Adams will walk more. This stuff isn’t rocket science and Adams isn’t living in his own little world.
I think it’s downright ridiculous to be critiquing a guy for not walking when he’s pressing 1.000 OPS, with a .317 BA and has hit 20 extra base hits in 123 at bats…and only 24 K’s.
So should we have the same attitude with Ottavino and his ridiculously high walk rate because his ERA is near 2.00?
Really? What does Ottavino have to do with Adams?
“I think it’s downright ridiculous to be critiquing a guy for not walking when he’s pressing 1.000 OPS, with a .317 BA and has hit 20 extra base hits in 123 at bats…and only 24 K’s.”
Does the same logic apply with Ottavino?
I find your comment illogical as they do not apply. Ottavino and Matt Adams have so little in common. So again I say, what does Ottavino have to do with Adams?
IF you dont get that forgiving a hitters walk rate because his BA is high is not equivalent to forgiving a pitchers high BB rate because his ERA is low then I cant explain it to you. Sorry.
No you can’t explain it to me because the two are unrelated. Ottavino’s high walk rate is too far a stretch to Adams’ hitting issues.
Adams has been a productive hitter. He has 30 rbi’s and has scored 24 runs in 123 at bats. No problem. Could he walk more? Yeah. But, his contact rate is clearly astronomical and thus far pitchers have refused to walk him. If he were K’ing at a 30% rate then we might have a problem. He isn’t. He’s one of the most productive hitters in the league.
Period.
You dont understand the relationship.
Exclamation point!
No, because there is no relationship.
Double exclamation point!!
Last year in the minors Ottavino walked 12 batters in 47 innings.. He hurt his shoulder and now seems to have lost his mechanics.
And that has to what with my point?
Agreed. Adams is in the top 10 in every offensive category but people want to nitpick his walk rate. Unbelievable.
Can we exaggerate a little bit more? Not in the top 10 in OBP, Triples, runs, SB and of course BB.
I’m referring to Top 10 in the top 4 offensive categories that matter for a slugger. Look at BA, OPS, homers, and RBIs. BA and OPS matter for what you are doing at the plate. Homers show your power. RBIs show your run-producing and clutch ability.
Runs do not count because well one we are talking about a minor league team and two it is contingent of your offense. Of course he is not going to lead the league in triples or stolen bases. Triples is a freak stat. Stolen bases are never going to happen for a big slugger.
BB and OBP go hand in hand. As already covered, Adams has expanded his zone. He may be able to improve his OBP but it could very well cause a sacrifice in his SLG % and run producing ability. No one likes that trade off. His OBP is a respectable .348. Not great, but he is getting on base plenty for his team.
RBI, really? OBP is the top measure for a batter’s value; period. Gah, there are so many flaws in this line of thinking, it’s almost not worth discussing.
First, OBP is most important because it measures how often you get on base. Point of batting is to score runs, and you can’t do that without getting on-base; thus, on-base percentage is most important. It includes important batting average, so counting batting average AND on-base percentage is a touch redundant. You should look at both, but between the two OBP is more important.
RBIs show how often you hit the ball, and how often the teammates preceding you in the batting order get on-base. It doesn’t show clutch ability, because clutch ability is not a real repeatable skill. Others can make the anti-clutch argument better than I can or cite references, but there’s a ton of evidence on its non-existence.
And how could you say runs don’t count, but that RBIs do? Are the RBIs not for a minor league team as well? Are they not ALSO contingent on the offense?
Finally, boosting OBP does not sacrifice run producing ability. OBP basically IS run producing ability. I would totally take a 1:1 trade off between OBP and SLG. Again, the SLG is generally not sustainable. I’m not saying Adams isn’t a good prospect, but to succeed in the majors (especially at first base) you need to draw the walk too, and he isn’t. He would be an outstanding prospect if he could build up his OBP, instead of a merely interesting one.
In that last paragraph, I’m referencing my post here (http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/05/10/average-first-baseman/comment-page-1/#comment-37157) regarding the SLG non-sustainability.
And sorry if I come off a bit insulting or dismissive in the first couple lines. The BA-OBP-RBI-clutch arguments are in the past, at least in my mind.
Albert will likely get better because he was better in the past. Matt Adams has never had a walk rate over 7% in the minors and it’s only going down.
Being critical of one aspect of a player’s game doesn’t de-value the aspects he’s good at.
Precisely my point. Still, I get the feeling that Adams is indeed being devalued by feint praise. I would bet a serious amount of money that if he continues to make the solid contact that he’s made thus far, his walk rate will indeed rise. Pitchers at this level aren’t that stupid. 23 K’s vs 20 extra base hits isn’t a good trade off.
Faint praise, not feint praise.
Feint praise would be starting a complimentary statement, then pulling it back and coming in with an insult.
And the argument that his walk rate will rise if he continues to hit the ball hard just doesn’t follow. A bunch of people here seem to want to think that Matt Adams isn’t walking because pitchers are just grooving it down the middle to him. That’s ridiculous. Matt Adams isn’t walking because that’s just the kind of hitter he is. If he ever manages to improve his walk rate (which I am highly doubtful of), it will be because he changed his approach, not because pitchers miraculously discovered one day he can hit fastballs down the middle.
Or he’s not walking because he’s crushing the ball right now, and because last year he was THE only bat in Quad Cities worth anything and in college because he hit over 500 and was head and shoulders better than anyone else.
Not walking because he’s hitting is not a good reason when you’re talking about percentages, because the extremely low percentage of walks he takes in his career lowers the value of his power and batting average. If he’s making outs more than other prospects and his defense doesn’t improve, it doesn’t matter how much power he has. He’s not going to go far.
Personally I rather have someone who gets on base a little less if they are driving in a larger amount of runs.
If I’d wanted to say faint praise that’s what I would have said. The compliments are indeed being pulled back and replaced with insults…re: “bad body”, and “refusing to walk”.
It’s rather obvious that the pitchers are either grooving the ball or Adams is a helluva bad ball hitter because he has 20 extra base hits.
Thanks for your absolute certainty on this issue. I’ll remember that the next time I waffle on something on this forum.
I’m not gonna argue with an eggspert (sic*) about what the kid can or cannot do about his approach. I will say that I don’t believe you are as smart as you think you are.
*….for your benefit.
He’s double digit in HR’s, hitting above .300 and has a ton of RBI’s, and you guys are worried about his walk rate??? Are you serious??? If someone else in that lineup could hit maybe he would walk more!
This is with out a doubt the worst conversation I’ve heard on here, give the guy a break….. would you rather have a guy with 10 HR’s or a guy with 25 walks????????
I’ll take 10 HR’s….
How about we talk about how great Carlos Martinez was the other night instead of this crap?
Yes, we are worried about his walk rate.
The problem, simply put, is that if a guy adamantly refuses to take a walk, it won’t take major-league pitchers long to figure out that they can completely de-fang him as a power hitter by simply throwing pitches out of the strike zone. It has happened to bigger power prospects than Adams. Their stories tend not to end well.
“If someone else in that lineup could hit maybe he would walk more!” This doesn’t make sense. To the extent that the concept of “protection” is valid at all (and there are real doubts as to whether it’s valid at all, except in very unusual situations), the whole point is that protection DECREASES walks, since opposing pitchers don’t want there to be anyone on base when they pitch to the player for whom protection functions. In fact, though, “protection” really doesn’t work most of the time. The ability to draw a walk when the pitcher won’t throw you strikes is a valuable skill, and players either have it or they don’t. If somebody like Adams doesn’t have it, he durn well better develop it, to be considered in the same breath as all those average-or-better major-league first basemen who do have it.
This makes no sense to me. What about his contact rate, BA, OPS, even K rate etc says he refuses to walk? Nothing. That’s just a tag you guys have attempted to put on him.
If his walk rate fails to go up and his BA plummets or his K rate soars, then we have a problem. We don’t have one now. It isn’t about refusing to walk. It’s about taking what the pitcher gives you.
“What about his contact rate, BA, OPS, even K rate etc says he refuses to walk?”
Nothing. However, his WALK RATE suggests he refuses to walk. 5% in the Texas League is abysmal.
Daniel Descalso, Tommy Pham, Allen Craig, Daryl Jones and a bunch of other somewhat marginal guys have put up similarly valuable hitting lines to Adams in Springfield over the last couple of years. All with better walkrates. None of those guys (with the possible exception of Craig) profiles as an above-average MLB hitter. Adams isn’t just going to have to be “above average”, he’s going to have to be “really good” to be a league average player as an obese first baseman.
You guys underestimate how easy it is to put up big numbers playing in Springfield, how unrepresentative of someone’s ability 100-odd PAs is, and (despite Azru’s excellent post attempting to point this out) how good a defensively-moderate 1B has to be in the majors to excel.
Then why in the hell has he produced 54 runs?
Because he’s the best prospect ever, apparently.
I guess that will have to do until you have a better explanation.
In one of the better hitters leagues in the minors while playing in the leagues best hitters park. Every player we have there sees a jump in power numbers but that isn’t going to be there in Saint Louis facing better pitching in bigger yards.
Watch him games at opposing fields. How about this for 1 week listen to every Springfield Cardinals game on the radio focus on his AB’s and not how deep he works the count, if he seems to be swinging and missing alot or if he takes a few strikes and then hits one on 2-2 and 3-2. That way you will have an informed decision.
…and yet, Chris Duncan went from .827 OPS in Memphis to a .952 OPS in his first year in St Louis. So how do you say that with any degree of certainty?
First of all Duncan took walks and second it was a fluke occurrence hitting 22 HR in 280 AB. Also La Russa did a good job of keeping him away from LHP as much as possible something he wasn’t getting to do in Memphis.
Right. He took 10 BB in 168 AB in Potomac in his 3rd year as a professional. So, isn’t it nice that Tony won’t have to platoon Matt Adams who seems to be able to hit 1.000 OPS hitting against LH and RH pitchers.
Maybe Chris’ 22 HR’s were a fluke and maybe they weren’t. He had a similar start to 2007 before he was injured. That’s a red herring anyway. The point is you can’t predict how much the major league stadium is going to inhibit Adams power swing.
Duncan also hit .179 in that stop and was 20 yeas old also hitting LHP in the minors is nothing like doing it against the best of the best.
Which once again proves nothing except that you can’t predict how much the major league stadium is going to inhibit Adams power swing.
But we do know much the Texas League boosts offense and with his normal HR per AB rate along with his BA taking a hit at the next level and the fact he doesn’t walk will kill his chances. There was a reason he went late and wasn’t rated in his leagues Top 20 last year even with him being the best offensive player.
There was a reason that Albert wasn’t chosen until the 13th round too. Something about a bad body…. Proves nothing.
They still have to perform when the music starts.
Then one year in Albert was Baseball America’s 42nd best Prospect. Adams has had big years his first 2 seasons and they didn’t even see him fit to be in the MWL Top 20 prospects even though he was 5th in a average, 1st in slugging, 3rd in OPS, 1st in RBI, 2nd in total bases, 3rd in doubles and 2nd in HR. Clearly something is wrong with his game to the scouts or he wouldn’t be left out.
42d best prospect huh? Well by the end of that year they must have been embarrassed as hell when he was the rookie of the year and #4 MVP.
They just don’t get it right at times Rich.
But how many 13th-round picks in the history of baseball (since the draft) have ever been as good as Albert Pujols? Zero.
How many guys with Adams’ skillset (see my detailed posts above) were successful at his position in the majors last year? Zero.
You don’t seem to realise that, just because something’s happened once (a guy like Albert, a complete free-swinger producing as much offense as Vlad Guerrero did) doesn’t make it especially much more likely. Adams’ chances are long.
What’s not to realize about Albert’s uniqueness? Sure he’s special and nobody should be compared.
By the same token, every player has unique qualities and cannot really be categorized or devalued because of the experiences of another.
Matt Adams surprised everyone at each level. SS, Quad Cities and now AA. So, when are you guys gonna get it right? Instead of diminishing his accomplishments by finding the parts that don’t conform to “perfection”….bad body, won’t walk…etc, I prefer to focus on what it is about Adams that is unique enough to make him work when others don’t.
So, maybe he flames out…and, I suppose, you win. Or maybe, you don’t have a clue and I win…because Matt Adams wins. In the mean time, I think you and every one else trying to write him off are full of it.
“By the same token, every player has unique qualities and cannot really be categorized or devalued because of the experiences of another.”
So there’s no point comparing baseball players, like, ever???
There probably is no point in comparing baseball players. It’s a tendency for fans with too much time on their hands, which likely leads them down rabbit trails far more often than to productive analysis.
Here Here CFiChitown. This is absolutely rediculous. It amazes me how people can be so critical of others that they don’t know anything about, especially Felonious_Monk that clearly doesn’t understand the definition of Morbidly Obese as he used in an earlier post. My guess is that any one of these so called critics in this post would love to be in Adams’ shoes at the moment and having a great minor league year.
“It amazes me how people can be so critical of others that they don’t know anything about, especially Felonious_Monk that clearly doesn’t understand the definition of Morbidly Obese ”
That was a joke, but it is actually quite likely that Adams is CLINICALLY OBESE. Obesity is defined as having a BMI of 30 or more. Taking Adams’ listed height and weight (6’3″, 230lbs) gives a BMI of 29. I’m not convinced he’s still 230lbs, to be honest. If he’s 240 (which someone estimated from a photo the other day), he is ACTUALLY obese.
Well then, nobody should tell Prince about BMI because he thinks he’s about to sign a helluva FA contract.
So, we’re comparing Adams to Prince Fielder again? Really?
with BMI… Yes.
????????????????????
It’s not “crap” to discuss why some people think certain prospects may or may not be sucessful major leaguers. Including for defensively-limited first baseman with limited on-base skills. I believe I’ve seen you make arguments for why you don’t like Zack Cox, because, in your opinion, he hasn’t hit with enough power in his limited minor league career. Are your comments “crap” — should I think your comments are “without a doubt the worst conversation I’ve heard on here”?
Good for Matt Adams for hitting some home runs this year. I hope he continues raking and improves his OBP skills. Doesn’t mean we can’t discuss red flags in his prospect profile.
Of course we can discuss it. I couldn’t agree more. But, disagreement should acknowledge that both sides of the argument have some merit.
Matt Adams has done nothing but produce in his 2 plus years as a professional. Taking the BB’s rate without context to his peripherals is bad analysis IMO.
We all know that at the next two levels, something is gonna have to give. Rather than suggest that the guy “refuses to walk” let’s acknowledge that this is a potential area of concern that will be interesting to follow as the pitching becomes more skillful.
Yep, everyone is concerned about his walk rate, and while you may think it’s a really stupid conversation to have, if more people had actually bothered to have this conversation about Delmon Young five years ago he would have been seen as the future mediocrity he is, rather than the best prospect in baseball and the right field version of Albert Pujols.
Oddly enough, Young (see my post above about MLB comps) is a pretty good comp for Adams, albeit from the other side.
Wondering who has more red flags at this point? Adams or Cox? Adams and his lack of walks or Cox and his lack of extra base pop.
Cox has as many extra base hits as Domnit Bolivar and Luis Mateo do.
Adams has a lower walkrate (as far as I can tell) than ANYONE other than a couple of valuable fielding players and Vlad Guerrero who had MLB success last year.
I notice that no-one has attempted to address that point at all.
I’m wondering if Zach Cox low walk rate is a red flag at this point? He has less walks on the year than Yunier Castillo.
Potentially, and to answer your above question, Cox.
Adams has had low walk rates for over a full season now, and Cox has only played for a month plus. That said, walk and strikeout rates stabilize quickly, and it doesn’t look great for Cox. The lack of pop in Cox’s bat looks bad too, but ISO numbers take more PAs to balance iirc. PB is tough to hit in too, especially power-wise. Cox’s big advantage as a prospect though is that he isn’t limited to first base defensively.
If we’re comparing the two, Cox is probably still the better prospect. However, that could change by year’s end, at this rate.
5-10
1 F-CS-F-SS K
2 B-B-F-CS-SS K
3 CS-B-B 2B
4 F-B-SS F-L
5-9
1 F SF
2 B-SS F-9
3 B HR
4 CS-SS-B-B-F-SS K
5 B-CS-F-SS K
5-8
1 F-B P-5
2 SS-B-B-SS-B-B BB
3 CS-F-F-B-F-F-F 2B
4 IBB IBB
5 B-F-B-B 4-3
5-7
1 B-SS HR
2 B-B-SS-F-F-F-B IB
3 B-CS 4-3
4 CS F-9
5-6
1 B 4-3
2 F HR
3 B-B-B-CS F-7
4 B HR
5-5
1 CS-CS 2B
2 B-F SF
3 P-6
4 SS-SS-B-F-B-F-B-F-B BB
5-4
1 CS-CS 4-3
2 B-B-SS-F-F-TF K
3 CS-B-F-SS K
4 F-B-SS-CS K
5-3
1 B 2B
2 B-CS-B 4-3
3 HR
4 CS-SS-SS K
5 SS G-4 GIDP DROPPED BY SS
5-1
1 CS-B 3U
2 SS-B-SS-F-CS K
3 CS-B 2B
4-30
1 B-B-SS 3U
2 CS-B 4-1
3 B-B L-7
4 B-CS-B-F-B-SS K
Thanks, I’m looking through this and I’m not seeing alot of first pitch swinging, I’m also seeing alot of taken Balls. It just seems that after a few balls he sees a pitch he wants to hit and hits it.
Yeah that’s really useful data. Would be cool if someone had the time to put it into a table or something to make it easier to read.
Likewise – not seeing as many swinging strikes as anticipated.
Time will tell on Adams, I guess!
Sorry for the way that looks, I had it spaced so it would look good but this system sucked it all back together making it harder to read.
Let me put things in perspective for you guys. Mark Hamiliton is not the answer at first. You fail to take defense into account he is a well below average 1st basemen. Matt Adams is in his 1st 100 ab’s of AA! BB’s come with maturity and familiarity! The season has just basically started. Also, you are talking about Major League hitters who are supposed to be accomplished and polished hitters. Adams is in his 1st 100 ab’s of AA! Made the jump from QC. Huge jump. You guys need to understand process and progress. Throw out your bb/k ratios and WAR. Save that for the Big leaguers. The kids are still learning and developing. Relax and enjoy the game!
“B’s come with maturity and familiarity!” Well, a nice saying, but saying it doesn’t make it so. To take a couple of guys with some similarities to Adams (and we should be so lucky as to have him work out so well), Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder both had BB/PA rates in the minors that were essentially identical to what they’ve had in the majors, somewhere around 9% and 10-11% respectively. Fielder had 47 walks in 317 plate appearances in 2002. He was all of 18 years old at the time.
About 18 of Fielders walks that year were intentional.
Well Grunt, plate discipline is a learned behavior, a skill. It comes from playing, seeing and understanding what you can hit and what you can’t hit. Most players get better the more they play and the more mature they get. They aren’t all finished products in AA. You see improvements in skills as players get closer to their prime years. The difference in AA and A ball, low A ball is quality of stuff (types pitches). Double AA the quality of stuff is a whole lot better than low A ball. The more you see better quality of stuff, the more familiar you become with it. Maturity and familiarity. Tell me again why this isn’t a true statement? Because of 2 players? Who have also become better hitters with age.
Okay, so here are some more: Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, James Loney, Derrek Lee, Nick Johnson. Every last one had walk rates in the minors that were (1) broadly consistent with their major-league careers and (2) not greatly different at different minor-league levels. Heck, even notorious hacker Vlad Guerrero didn’t walk less in the minors than in the Show.
Turn this around. Show me even ONE current major-league first baseman whose walk rate increased significantly on reaching the major leagues, compared to what they exhibited over the duration of their minor-league careers — or even what they did in the low minors when they were just getting started. You’re the one making the claim; you provide evidence that it’s true. I’ll be sincerely interested to see what you come up with.
Your assumption that a players tendencies are set in stone in incorrect I believe. The guy has never had to and probably never been asked to take a walk in his entire career. I will be concerned if he’s asked to do that and he doesn’t adjust to it. The fact he’s hit so well his whole life shows me he has a good eye and hits hitters pitches. The duration of an MLB career? Adams played 70 games in SS, a full year in Low A and is only 120 ab’s into his second full year, who is to say his tendencies won’t change if he’s asked.
All we’re asking is for comparable players to Adams who’ve been successful. You guys on the other side of the argument haven’t come up with any credible ones.
The recent past just doesn’t seem to augur well for big-bodied 1B slugger types who don’t/can’t/didn’t walk in their minor league or major league careers. I.e. none of them have made it to the show as useful players.
Adams is 23 in a couple of months. It’s getting late for him to learn to walk. I’m not saying it’s impossible, just that it’s UNLIKELY.
Look. If you want to “believe” that Osama bin Laden was hiding in Hillary Clinton’s basement until his not-so-unfortunate demise, you can “believe” that too; there is no way to stop you. The evidence suggests otherwise.
The evidence also suggests that breakouts on walk rate, particularly among slugging first basemen, are very much the exception. I’m still waiting to hear about one of those exceptions among current major-league first basemen. None of this is to say that Adams cannot or will not be such an exception; it also doesn’t say he won’t be a better major leaguer than Stavinoha (I “believe” he will). But the evidence, going beyond mere “belief,” sure screams to me that there is a concern with his low walk rate. I’m sure that the concern is understood by coaches and instructors in the Cardinals’ farm system, and I hope they are successful in addressing it.
So you totally discount the idea that because he was THE man everywhere he’s played in has decided he rather drive in a run than walk and have the next guy ground into a double play? Not everyone is a stat head who looks at the percentages. When I played baseball I was never a great hitter and I was fast so I took walks. But if I was someone like Adams and was hitting .500 in college i would have a hard time not swinging at a 2-0 fastball when the guy batting behind me was only hitting .300. If you look at what Richard posted Adams obviuosly takes balls there were alot of them in that breakdown of his, what it showed me is the guy worked a count to his favor and then got a good pitch to hit. This is the minors you usually don’t pitch around someone.
And you’re totally discounting the facts that (a) Adams is hitting in a hitter’s league in a hitter’s park; (b) better pitchers with more control and velocity in higher levels will be able to exploit someone unwilling to take even a decent amount of walks; and (c) this is still the early part of the season, which is far too early to make a judgment about whether Adams has enough offense to overcome his limitations if he doesn’t improve on them. As a former player, you of all people should know how smart pitchers can exploit free-swingers by making them chase pitches, and a low single-digit walk rate indicates somebody who does not typically work a count.
As Adams is moving from level to level, it’s good to see him keep up his strengths. But starting with the jump to Double A, each progressive jump is much harder to make, and that’s when you see a lot of prospects begin to drop off…or grow. Adams has done well at Springfield so far, but he hasn’t even played a full season yet. Others’ mentions of other Cardinals prospects whose stat lines were similar to Adams at Springfield should be a red flag that you can’t complete trust the power or average that Adams is showing right now.
As a prospect, he has legit issues (defense, abysmal walk rate, physical limitations) that lower his long-term value and limits his upside as a major league player. Ignoring those issues because “he’d rather drive in a run than walk” is not objective player development evaluation.
Adams already made the toughest jump which was him jumping over High A. Alot of players flame out going from high A to AA. Adams jumped from low A to AA. Everyone seems to be discounting that. A player that hits as well as he does doesn’t have a bad eye. I read an intreview with him a few years ago about how his time as a catcher really helped him with hand-eye coordination and the difference between a good hitters pitch and pitchers pitch.
Also you can’t have a objective evaluation if you hve never see a player play in person. Low walk rates could have to do with a player that swings at crap pitches. It also could be that the guy finds a good hitters pitch and swings at it. It could be that he knows hes a liabilty on the basepaths. To be fair neither of us actually knows how good Adams is as we don’t know what type of pitches hes hitting and if he’s being asked to take more pitches or not.
In a word: yes.
All of those high-BB, highly valuable guys I mentioned earlier were also “THE man” for their minor-league teams; that’s how they got to the Show. Part of the tool kit they used to become “THE man,” and then major-league stars, is the kind of plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone that contributes to drawing walks. If they don’t have that, the track record on becoming “THE man” and keeping that description into the majors isn’t very good. That isn’t statistics; it’s history. (BTW, no cellar-dwelling stathead here; I too used to play.)
Only one of the top 30 career slugging-average guys in MLB today had a minor-league career where their OBA exceeded their BA by less than 50 points: Alfonso Soriano, .332 to .285. This despite the likelihood, near certainty, that many of those guys were “THE man” on their minor-league teams. If Alfonso Soriano is your exemplar for growing into the ability to be a useful slugger in the majors while not walking in the minors, I think this argument is pretty well settled.
I don’t think you realize how bad the offense was at Quad Cities last year, and the effect of playing at a small school and having the talent to hit .500 I would tend to agree wtih you if he had huge strikeout totals but he doesn’t. He’s hitting the ball and hitting it hard. No wait lets take a walk so cleanup man Edgar Lara or Ryde Rodriquez can try to drive him in.
Tell us Andrew, how bad was it? Worse than 2011? Not even close. Worse than 2009? Not even close! or 2008 or 2007 or 2006? No! Worst in the league? not even close. One of the best in the league – yes! 2nd in runs scored, 3rd in OPS, 4th in slugging.
Look at the runs scored during the first half of the year. It really picked up after the All Star break but Quad Cities were winning 1-0 games righ tand left at the beggining of the year. They had a very strong pitching staff and no one but Adams during the first half of the year.
This bad…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=6632bf72
More runs in the 2nd half? Does the link you provided show that? Even so, what does it mean? Actually, since Adams was much stronger the second half than the first I highly doubt your claim. It seems like you are just throwing crap out there without any proof and hoping no one challenges it.
What does the link show? Do a little comparative analysis to support your claim (like I did to refute it).
Bad for a good team, if I remember correctly those other years that you mentioned other than this years team weren’t very good at all.
What does that have to do with the issue of whether QC had a terrible offense last year or not? What does it have to do with whether Adams had to carry the team (so he couldn’t take walks)?
Saying Adams is only swinging at good pitches is not something I can dispute or prove as true but this crap about him carrying the offense is bunk. There may not have been no one other guy but they were scoring plenty of runs regardless of him.
Also – has he been “carrying the offense” at every other stop in the minors?
He’s not just had a low BB rate in QC, you know.
Article on Adams……
http://www.news-leader.com/article/20110512/SPORTS02/105120361/Cardinals-slugger-Adams-case-baseball-brains-brawn?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports
This HOF hitter’s 3rd year of hitting as a professional:
1916 BOS 67 games… 136 AB…. 18 runs… 37 hits…. 57 TB… 5 DB… 3 T… 3 HR… 15 rbi… 10 BB – 23 K’s…0 SB – .272 .322 .419 .741
In his first 4 years as a professional he never walked more than 12 times. There might be something to plate discipline being a learned behavior.
Anyway, Prince Fielder is a bad example. As I’ve said before, he was hitting baseballs out of Detroit stadium when he was 12. He took batting practice against major league pitchers. He was probably a little ahead of Matt Adams development wise….
Did you really just compare Matt Adams to Babe Ruth? A converted pitcher from the Dead Ball Era? Do you honestly think that comparison means absolutely anything? The greatest player ever, in the middle of converting to a full-time hitter, compared to a marginal minor league slugger? Oh, and not to mention the player being drudged up played 90 years ago, in a completely different era.
That may literally be the most asinine thing I’ve ever read.
I think one thing that is getting missed in this debate is that walk rate is not just important for the purpose of getting lots of walks. It’s important as a sign of a good eye, which is associated with major league success. If you’re a thoughtful hitter who picks the right pitch, you’re more likely to succed in the majors. If you’re just a free-swinger with a lot of upper-body strength, you’ll get carved up by ML pitching.
Adams reminds me more than anything of nick stavinoha. Nick could not take a walk as a minor leaguer, and put up the 5, 6,7 percent walk rates we’ve gotten from adams. Stavinoha could slug the ball in AA and AAA. But he could not translate that success in the big leagues. There are lots of stavinoha’s out there. Adams, for all that he slugs, does not have the skillset of a major leaguer.
And, yes, players who don’t walk generally do not learn a good eye in the high minors. Lots more guys show up with good eyes and high walk rates but low power, who then learn to slug as they build muscle and improve their form. But few if any start out as sluggers and learn to have a good eye.
Agreed.
Although not sure Stav is a much better comp than some of the Adams’ supporters’ ones – he doesn’t have near the power of Adams and he started his career later & hasn’t progressed through the low and mid-minors as easily.
Despite being an Adams naysayer, I still think he’s a better prospect than Stav ever was.
This, however, is an excellent point:
“And, yes, players who don’t walk generally do not learn a good eye in the high minors. Lots more guys show up with good eyes and high walk rates but low power, who then learn to slug as they build muscle and improve their form. But few if any start out as sluggers and learn to have a good eye.”
I’ve asked the other guys a couple of times to come up with some comparable players to Adams who learnt to take a walk this late in their development, or some guys who’ve had major league success with a similar skillset. Nada, so far.
It’s a bit dated, but I gave you one who had to learn on the fly in the majors.
Yeah, one of the greatest baseball players of all time who, by the way, was a coverted pitcher who learned how to hit in the majors. Yeah, that’s really typical.
It’s also more than “a bit dated.” Come up with somebody who at least has been in your lifetime.
Why is that a criteria? He was a very good example of someone who played 4 years in the majors before he learned to take a walk…but he did learn.
well, for one, it antedated the farm team system by about 30 years, so ruth didn’t have three or four years in the minors to develop. for another, when one’s focus is on pitching, one’s hitting falls by the wayside. rick ankiel – as bad a hitter as he is – is probably a better hitter than he was when he was pitching. it’s just a question of what you devote 75% of your training time to.
And Ruth had a .741 OPS in that season you cited (and was still walking at a higher rate than Adams). How much was he pitched around after he became a prolific HR hitter and how much of it was that he developed an eye and patience? I dont know as intentional bases on balls didnt even exist as a stat at that time. But as long as Adams turns out like Ruth it’s Ok. :)
Nice obfuscation. The year before his OPS was .952 and the year after it was .857. His walk rate was statistically in the ballpark those four years. And not statistically aberrant to Adams.
It is a joke to make excuses that it was before the minor league system…a red herring argument… He learned how to take BB in the majors. It was done. It can be done. It is done.
Ruth’s BB rates were over 50% higher than Adams is this year. That is not “statistically aberrant.” ???? And of course we could talk sample size for Ruth (<60 PA each of those years.) And there is fact he was 2 levels higher at a younger age. Yes, Ruth improved his walk rate. He was still better than Adams in his early and worst years.
For the record, I've never said that Adams can't improve his walk rate. Just that it is something I think he needs to do, something that keeps him from being the top prospect that Andrew dreams he is, and something I'd hope he would work on in the minors.
Pardon me but our numbers don’t match up. In 1916 Ruth had 136 AB’s. 10 BB’s vs 8 BB’s in 126 at bats for Adams is not a 50% higher rate… In fact IT IS NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
…and you’re right. Stavinoha is not a good example. I don’t see any parallel.
and babe ruth was?
I never asked if Adams could pitch….
The problem is, most of the good comps for Adams are guys who suck royally in the majors or flamed out in the high minors. The best I’ve heard so far, hitting-line-wise (despite being a RHH, I believe) is Delmon Young.
Additionally, if you really need it explained to you why Babe Ruth’s 1916 season is a ridiculous comp for any discussion involving Matt Adams, I’m not sure the conversation is worth having.
Every comp conversation is ridiculous. Every ballplayer has different background, different work ethic, different approach to the game and different abilities to adapt. Every player experiences differing health issues and has a differing physical make up.
Comp is fodder for discussion with no probative value.
Here are all the Adams AB hopefully a bit easier to read
5-10
1 F-CS-F-SSCS—K
2 B-B-F-CS-SSCS—K
3 CS-B-BCS—2B
4 F-B-SSCS—FL
5-9
1 FCS—SF
2 B-SSCS—F9
3 B—HR
4 CS-SS-B-B-F-SS—K
5 B-CS-F-SS—K
5-8
1 F-B—P5
2 SS-B-B-SS-B-B—BB
3 CS-F-F-B-F-F-F—2B
4 IBB—IBB
5 B-F-B-B—43
5-7
1 B-SS—HR
2 B-B-SS-F-F-F-B—1B
3 B-CS—43
4 CS—F9
5-6
1 B—43
2 F—HR
3 B-B-B-CS—F7
4 B—HR
5-5
1 CS-CS—2B
2 B-F—SF
3 P6
4 SS-SS-B-F-B-F-B-F-B—BB
5-4
1 CS-CS—43
2 B-B-SS-F-F-FT—K
3 CS-B-F-SS—K
4 F-B-SS-CS—K
5-3
1 B—2B
2 B-CS-B—43
3 HR
4 CS-SS-SS—K
5 SS—FC 43 GIDP DROPPED BY SS
5-1
1 CS-B—3U
2 SS-B-SS-F-CS—K
3 CS-B—2B
4-30
1 B-B-SS—3U
2 CS-B—41
3 B-B—L7
4 B-CS-B-F-B-SS—K
4-29
1 F-F—3U
2 B-B-B—HR
3 CS-SS-F-B—3B
4 B—43
4-28
1 B—53
2 F-F-B-B—1B
3 HR
4 B-F-B-F-F—1B
4-27
1 F—L8
2 B-F-B-B-SS—E3
3 SS-CS-B-B-B-B—BB
4 B-B—63 DP
4-26 #2
1 CS—2B
2 E6
3 F-B-F-B-F-B-F—53
4-26 #1
1 31
2 B-B-B-CS-B—BB
3 F7
4-23
1 F-F-B-F-CS—K
2 CS-B-F-B-F-SS—K
3 B-SS—1B
4 CS-SS-F-B—43
4-22
1 CS-B—2B
2 CS-B-F-F—43
3 HR
4 SS—63
5 F-B—463 DP
6 P6
4-21
1 F-B-F-F-SS—K
2 SS—L6
3 B—1B
4 F-CS-F-F-F-B-F—L4
5 3U
4-20
1 CS-B-SS-B-B—3U
2 B-F-CS-F—63
3 HR
4 SS-F—-1B
4-19
1 3U
2 B—F8
3 1B
4 SS-CS-B—1B
5 F-CS—1B
4-18
1 F9
2 SS-B-SS-B-B-F—F9
3 43
4 CS-CS-F-SS—K
4-17
1 1B
2 F-B—1B
3 B-B-F-CS—1B
4 B-SS-F-F-B-F-F-F-B—FL
4-16 #2
1 B—HR
2 F-CS-SS—K
3 B-B-SS-SS-F-B-B—BB
4-16 #1
1 F-B—1B
2 1B
3 CS-SS-CS—K
4 F-B-F-F-F-F-F-B-B—F8
4-14
1 SS-B-F-SS—K
2 B—43
3 B—1B
4 B-B-F-SS—2B
5 F—F8
4-12
1 CS-B-SS-CS—K
2 1B
3 B-B-B-CS-F-SS—K
4 CS—43
5 B-CS-SS—43
6 CS-SS-F-F-SS—K
4-11
1 B-CS—43
2 F-B-B—63
3 B-CS-N—463 DP
4 CS—1B
5 1B
4-10
1 B-CS-SS-SS—K
2 B—F8
3 43
4 CS-F-B—2B
4-9
1 B-CS-B—1B
2 SS-SS-F-SS—K
3 B-B-B-B—-BB
4 F-SS—43
4-8
1 B-F—63
2 P6
3 B—43
4 B-B-CS-B—F7
5 B-SS-F-SS—K
4-7
1 43
2 B—3U
3 F-B-B-CS-F-B-CS—K
4 F–43
I hate not having an edit button, the 5-10 4th AB should read F-B-SS—F7. After doing this all the numbers blind in to me so there may be more mistakes so if you see them let me know and I will post correct line.
Well Grunt, I wonder if Derrek Lee got any better from A ball to when he when he won the N.L. batting title. You are so caught up in these numbers the you can’t enjoy the game. Seen guys like you who couldn’t play but kept a hell of a score card! Couldn’t hit but could tell everyone else how to. Couldn’t run but would yell when a runner gets throw out. Bottom line is you are a disGruntled guy who couldn’t.
That was out of line and your apology is now required.
I agree, as much as I disagree with some people here personal insults aren’t welcome.
David Ortiz
David Ortiz what? He’s always walked at a good clip. Career rate 13%, his first two full seasons in Minnesota he walked at 12%. His last year in AAA he walked at over 14% in what was (I believe) a pitchers’ league. Admittedly, in 97 he walked a touch below 8%, but this was whilst jumping up three levels in the minor league system to AAA as a 20-21-year-old.
There are many players who improve BB rate not just 1b basemen. It is having a better understanding of strike zone. But it can be hard for someone that doesn’t have a fundemental understanding of process and development.
Ok that was below the belt. I apologize. However, you just made my case. Ortiz was less patient when he made the jump to a higher level. Look at his Midwest League numbers in ’96 at 20, then when he made the jump to High A, AA and AAA in 97. He was 21. Matt Adams is 22. Who by the way had similiar numbers in the same league at 21. But according to you that doesn’t matter because hitters don’t improve their plate discipline the older they get or the more they see it. Matt Adams is in his 1st 30 some odd games and you’re already putting him down and making jugdement based on stats of other players. You fail to factor in the biggest element of all in the game of baseball. Do you know what that is Grunt?
Beer.
Apology accepted, but as far as I am concerned, this conversation is closed. The facts are out there. They are supported by history, statistics, observation, all three.
No. The human element.
My goodness, the guy who refuses to walk just did 3 times tonight. His walk average is now probably above career norm. Horrors.
He is getting pitched around big time right now he has 2 IBB this week.