Subtitle: Kozmanaut Fails to Leave Lower Atmosphere
In 2007, Pete Kozma was selected by the Cardinals as their first overall pick. There was much wailing and gnashing of the teeth (including here) due to Rick Porcello, who was widely regarded as the best high school arm, still being available. Even though Pete Kozma was no Rick Porcello, I doubt anyone predicted or hoped his time in the minors would be so thoroughly mediocre.
Kozma generally received good reviews at the time of the draft. He was considered a late first round pick or sandwich pick at the worst. The lack of middle infielders in the draft led some to believe that teams could reach a little. Baseball America said the following in 2007:
Kozma has no true standout tool, but he also has no glaring weakness. He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop. His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field. He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup. Coming into the spring, some scouts questioned whether he’d be a long-term shortstop, but he has no doubters now. A Wichita State recruit, Kozma draws raves for his consistency and energy as well.
Drafted out of high school, Kozma started in Johnson City and Batavia in 2007. He was aggressively promoted through the system reaching Palm Beach in 2008 and Springfield in 2009 despite only having modest success at the plate.
| Age | Level | PAs | BB | SO | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2007 | 19 | Rk/A- | 163 | 15 | 30 | 2 | .233 | .313 | .342 |
| 2008 | 20 | A/A+ | 528 | 55 | 96 | 5 | .258 | .340 | .361 |
| 2009 | 21 | A+/AA | 543 | 50 | 104 | 6 | .231 | .302 | .323 |
| 2010 | 22 | AA | 570 | 56 | 111 | 13 | .243 | .318 | .384 |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA | 152 | 10 | 31 | 0 | .217 | .278 | .275 |
With OPS that just squeaked over .700 in both 2008 & 20010, Kozma’s offense has been consistently tepid throughout the minors. Power was never his calling card but the inability to make consistent contact or draw a higher number of walks has left him with little to offer at the plate.
Billed as a true shortstop, Kozma has the physical abilities to field the position. Mentally, he’s been inconsistent and, at times, mistake prone. Questions of whether his struggles at the plate were spilling into the field are plausible if impossible to substantiate.
At 23, Kozma isn’t quite a lost cause. He’s still age appropriate for his level and perhaps even a touch young. Matt Carpenter who has enjoyed a good deal of praise and success at AAA is 25. It’s hard to argue, however, that his professional career hasn’t been a disappointment thus far. With Ryan Jackson performing well at Springfield, Kozma may face increased pressure in the near term to live up to his draft day potential. Time is no longer on his side and the Cardinals have a viable competitor rising through the ranks.
Entries (RSS)
If you could only keep only one of Kozma or T. Greene in 2012, which would it be? That might be a question the Cardinals ask themselves at the end of the 2011 season. There is still a lot of ball to be played yet so it is hard to answer that question just yet. You would think Kozma’s age weighs in his favor but one can never tell how the Cards view these issues.
Kozma would be my choice, Greene wasn’t that good at at Pete’s age either and he’s already in Triple-A.
Greene, he has alot more tools that Kozma and eventually succeeds at every level after an adjustment period.
One thing to factor in is Greene will be 28 in mid August and only has a .639 OPS in the majors and that’s slightly inflated with his 6 IBB from hitting 7/8th depending on where Tony has the pitcher while Kozma turned only 23 just 5 weeks ago.
Greene has demonstrated when given regular at bats at every level and time to adjust he will deliver offensively. He has very good range but throws get off the mark at times and lets the ball play him too much. I say move Kozma to 2nd or trade him to clear room, keep Greene and give him 500 ab’s.
Will be interesting to see what they do if Kozma continues cold and Jackson continues hot right below him. Could Kozma move to 2B to keep him in Memphis in 2012? Or do they swap? Interesting to note that Jackson just turned 23 as well.
His offense has been “tepid” through the minors? I’d say just plain “bad.” (Or “cold,” if you want to keep the thermal similes alive.)
I do not remember these “good reviews at the time of the draft,” either. There was more of a persistent “Well…” opinion — “Well, if they don’t want to pay grossly over-slot bucks to [insert the P-word here], I suppose…” or “Well, they’re not likely to do better with the alternatives” or “Well, maybe he’ll surprise us.” Pretty well all of the pundits that I remember — Goldstein, Sickels, etc., — seemed to be scratching their heads over the pick. If there were “good reviews,” I’d be interested to know where they were. Got references?
This said, that was a very weak — shallow — draft class for position players, at any position other than first base. Only 19 of 64 first rounders have made it to the show so far, and only Stanton and Heyward show real promise. It is entirely plausible that Koz WAS the best middle infield prospect left on the board by the time the Cardinals were on the clock. I mean, it’s not like Darwin Barney and Andrew Romine and Lance Zawadzki have exactly set the league on fire.
June 5th, 2007. Goldstein ranks Kozma #37.
Quote:”Pros: Line-drive bat with excellent feel for contact; plus-plus defender with smooth shortstop actions and a strong, accurate arm.Cons: On the smallish side, and not the kind of body that will fill out much; an average runner.”
The distinction I’d make is not that people didn’t think Kozma was an overdraft, they did, but rather that he was still well regarded as a prospect. He was always considered a top 50 player but he’s not played like that in the minors.
A search of KG’s other 2007 articles suggests that he wasn’t quite so polite about Koz. The word “overdraft” was used quite frequently, and I find that somewhat difficult to reconcile with “good reviews.” Nor does being the #37 guy in a weak draft class make him a “top 50 player.” For that year, maybe, but given the amount of time a typical prospect spends in the minors, that wouldn’t make him an overall top-50 prospect; it might not make him a top-200 prospect. It also doesn’t hold much promise of success. In a typical year, the 37th choice overall (who may not be the 37th best prospect of the year, but close enough) has only about a 40% chance of making it to the Show.
KG also stressed the overall weakness of the middle-infield class that year, and in addition, pointed out that there hadn’t been a single MLB starting shortstop drafted as a first-rounder out of high school since some guy named Rodriguez. Lessons for the future …
Looking at that table, it’s surprising the Cards moved him so aggressively. It’s pretty obvious in hindsight that he hadn’t “figured out” the level he was playing in; the promotions look misguided at best, foolish at worst.
The organization’s tendency to promote aggressively is well known, but I wonder why they continued to promote Kozmaniac when he showed no signs of making gains offensively. Positional scarcity, sure, but don’t you want your first round pick to get some development in before shipping him up the ladder?
Just bad karma for him. He came along as a disappointment and, in some cases, was quietly resented because lots of folks seemed to want someone else at that point in time in 2007. As a result, the organization seemed to show a level of near urgency to validate him, to justify him. We’ve waited for several seasons now for him to pull the sword out of the stone, so we could have our new prince. Truth is, his potential, all along, has always probably been more that of a “sturdy yeoman” than a “prince”. I just hope he makes it somehow, if only in a bench role.
I’ve always liked Kozma, probably cause so many others don’t. His defensive stats in the minors compare favorably to Brendan Ryan’s minors defensive stats. I think he’s got the defensive chops to play SS/2B in the majors, probably as a utility guy. I expect him to get another 500PAs in Memphis next year and then perhaps make the big club the next year (2013) if has eked his OPS back to .700 next year.
I will add to this that when he’s focused, he “looks” good on defense. Movements are smooth (I saw him start a double play in ABQ that was poetry in motion) and he gets to things. Unfortunately, he doesn’t always look good, and I wonder about focus. Wonder if a sports psychologist would help him?
Of course, there’s still this little problem that he can’t hit.
By no means am I supporting the original draft choice, although I seem to recall that some were commending the Cards for picking him immediately before the Blue Jays, who were rumored to be set to pick him.
The only point to think about is that if he can play in the majors at $414000 versus say Theriot at $3.3 million, Shu at $2.7 million or even Punto at $750000 he has some value even if he is the second utility IF, provided he can be a good fielder and hit like a utility IF, e.g. Punto.
The 2007 draft was an odd one for the Cards. I don’t know if this is correct, but when I read post-draft interviews w. Luhnow and others, I got the impression that the Cards didn’t necessarily draft the guys they had at the top of their boards. Instead, they got guys they wanted to draft later but were afraid others would grab before they got the chance.
My working hypothesis is that the Cards were so happy w. the 2005 and 2006 drafts that they were overconfident going into ’07.
I think everyone would like to see a do-over of the ’07 draft. Porcello aside, by the time they drafted Kopp in the 2nd round, Mike Stanton and Freddie Freeman were still on the board.
It’s crazy to think that a guy like Descalso — a nice player and potential MLB-average 2nd baseman — is the best player to come out of a draft in which you have the 18th overall pick and 4 picks in the top 100.
I love Dirty Dan but if he is the best out of your 2007 draft….FAIL!!!
To be fair, though, most of the guys who were considered likely first rounders in the midst of the Kozma-range of that draft have been busts too. With the exception of Stanton and Freeman, the majority of “alternative” picks to Porcello and Kozma wouldn’t have provided us with any value. It was a pretty exceptionally mediocre draft class.
Great point. When I looked at the list before I posted, I was struck by how many names I hadn’t seen since draft day.
Fox Sports Midwest just tweeted that Kozma has been called up and Punto put on the DL. Guess we’ll see what the Cards have got there. Never thought I would say this, but thankfully Schumaker is only a few rehab games away…or so they say.
Kozma has been called up? Wow..