Heath Bell was the topic du jour during the Cardinals, seemingly endless, string of blown saves and reliever meltdowns. With pitchers Matt Adams and Luke Gregorson still in the Padres pen, Bell would seem ripe for a trade given his impending free agency at the end of the year.
As far as relievers go, Heath Bell has been a top echelon closer for two years now. He’s posted strikeout rates over 10 K/9 and 11 K/9 in 2009 & 2010 respectively. His walk rates show decent control hovering in the mid 3s BB/9. He’s ranked in the top 10 for reliever FIP for two years running. Bell isn’t an extreme flyball pitcher either. Despite playing in one of the friendliest parks for pitchers, Bell has maintained average ground ball rates.
So while Bell has favorable conditions to pitch in, there should be no doubt that he’s an elite relief pitcher right now. So I scanned MLBTR’s site for trades involving relievers of a similar pedigree. The results were a bit scarce but Frank Francisco and Matt Capps seem like reasonable approximations for Bell’s value to me.
Francisco was the Rangers’ closer posting very similar numbers to Bell before being pushed out of the role by top prospect Neftali Perez. Francisco was traded to the Blue Jays for Mike Napoli this past January. Napoli, who spent most of his career with the Angels, was an above average catcher with established major league credentials. When swapping major league players, this was a pretty clear exchange of value. While it’s hard to argue that the Jays came out ahead, they looked like they were swapping a ~1 WAR reliever for a ~2 WAR closer.
Matt Capps was traded to the Twins in July of 2010 after Joe Nathan was forced into Tommy John surgery. Capps didn’t have the strikeout rates of Bell or Francisco but, as the Pirates and Nationals closer, he had demonstrated better command. The Twins sent a pair of prospects to the Nats: a junkballing lefty that was too old for his level and highly touted catching prospect Wilson Ramos. That trade was pretty widely derided for moving such an advanced and valuable prospect. Nonetheless, the Twins were willing to do it to secure the back end of their pen.
Now the Cardinals have been fortunate that the emergence of Fernando Salas (who has been excellent if a bit lucky) and Eduardo Sanchez have solidified the back end of the pen. Salas has been able to utilize his three pitch arsenal (FB, SL, CH) and above average command to retire batters while Sanchez has relied on two plus pitches (FB, SL) to blow hitters away. They’re different kinds of pitchers but combined with Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs, they’ve formed a very effective core from the right side of the pen. Ultimately, the Cardinals may not feel like they need a Heath Bell type veteran closer but the allure is always there for teams especially with managers who prefer their relievers in established roles.
So if we use Franciso and Capps as our example we can either move a league average-ish major league player (Allen Craig) or a pair of prospects. The first prospect that was sent over was not really a high profile move. It could be any pitching prospect with a modicum of success thus far: Nick Additon, Eric Fornataro, etc. The question is what the equivalent of Wilson Ramos would look like within the Cardinals system. That is a more difficult comparison to make since the Cardinals really don’t have an equivalent player.
Kevin Goldstein had Ramos as the Twins #4 prospect entering 2010. Quoting:
Ramos offers above-average skills both at the plate and behind it. He has consistently shown the ability to hit for average with an outstanding contact rate, and there’s raw power in his hitting mechanics as well. He’s agile defensively with a plus arm, and he works well with a pitching stuff.
Ramos projected as an above average catcher who can hit, field and work with the pitching staff. The Cardinals simply don’t have that player but if I’m looking for the nearest analogous value, I’d probably go with Tommy Pham. A toolsy player who still has some projection. That said, Pham is a lesser product than Ramos. The Cardinals would probably need to offer a decent arm to go with him. A prospect package for Heath Bell might look something like Lance Lynn/Jordan Swagerty and Tommy Pham.
Personally, I don’t think the Cardinals need Heath Bell. I don’t think that Heath Bell is really worth that kind of a prospect package. I also have a suspicion that some team will wildly overpay for Bell much like the Twins did for Matt Capps. So, do you trade for Heath Bell and what’s your Cardinal prospect offer?
Entries (RSS)
I’d take the Swagerty and Pham package. I think Lynn is important to us right now because of our lack of depth.
Do you think they would shoot down a package of M. Hamilton, B. Anderson and Swagerty?
I don’t think Hamilton/Anderson are the equivalent of Pham, as neither projects as an average player, imo. Swaggerty is not eligible to be traded until one year after signing, which will not occur until after the trade deadline. It is nice that the org. does not have to pull the trigger right now and can wait two months to see what develops. I’m sure TLR would love an established closer over Salas and Sanchez even though the value that Bell would provide (compared to his replacements Salas and Sanchez) would not outweigh what would be given up…plus Bell’s $10 million pro rated price tag.
swagerty and other recent draft picks can be traded as a ptbnl.
I believe that Bell will be a type A as well right? So even if we give up decent prospects for him, we can get an extra first rounder and a sup. pick correct?
Yes, but that means he’ll cost a whole lot more.
The Padres can get a high-end prospect for him from somewhere, so I doubt they do the deal for the likes of Swagerty, Lynn or Pham.
I also don’t think we need him. I was keener on a Bell trade last year, when he was cheaper and we’d have at least had another year of control plus a chance to tie him up long-term (also, the back end of our pen was poor last year, and is much better this year. The need isn’t very large.).
They have no need for Hamilton at all since they got Anthony Rizzo from Boston in the Gonzalez deal and he is their #2 prospect and in AAA he has a 1.145 OPS with 50 RBI already with a 08/08/1989 birth date compared to Hamilton’s 07/29/1984.
Actually, I do think the Cardinals have somebody who projects something like Ramos, but he’s rather low in the system: Cody Stanley. He could be sort of a Ramos Lite, not likely to hit as well (and, of course, not being ready yet) but similarly equipped with a relatively complete catcher’s toolkit. It would take some Additon-ish throw-in to get the Padres to bite, probably.
Thing is, though: I think the Cardinals would be badly mistaken to make this trade. ANY depletion of the farm system is too much to pay for a rental, considering that there are already right-handed arms a-plenty in the pen. Most teams would kill to have the “problem” of deciding which one of Boggs, Sanchez or Salas would be the main closer. No deal to remedy this “problem” should be made unless what’s given up is of essentially zero value. (Donovan Solano plus Blake King plus Chuckie Fick?…)
I never like the idea of trading for premium relievers. Hindsight is 20/20, so you’d reconsider something at the beginning of the season looking back and seeing that a premium closer would have saved the Cardinals around 4 or 5 wins. However, I highly doubt that giving up what it will take to obtain a guy like Bell is going to be worth the potential future WAR and cost-controlled years that a pitcher like Lynn could bring for the difference in wins that Bell will be worth over Salas for the rest of the season. It’d be a different story if we were looking at Franklin or bust in that role.
Even if he were eligible to be traded — he’s not — I’d rather be stuck in a room with nothing but an iPod full of Creed than trade Swagerty for a part-time closer.
I honestly wouldn’t trade any my top prospects for a closer. If they want a package like Pham, an arm, and one more average prospect I’d probably do it, but I wouldn’t give up a whole lot right now.
From a different perspective…. Assuming Swaggerty and Pham were traded (Swaggerty as a ptbnl) for Bell, Bell should be a type A free agent. In this way, the Cardinals could recoup some value from the trade, assuming Bell would then leave in free agency. Obviously, this brings in a number of variables such as who would want a 34 year old closer and give up a 1st rounder to get him. Assuming Bell would be signed, the deal doesn’t seem so bad. Swaggerty and Pham for 3 months of Bell plus early draft picks.
Pretty much would be trading the future for immediate help and prospective help even further in the future.
This shows the value of Bell being a Type A. Why would the Pads not make sure they get at least the value of the draft compensation for Bell?
This means we would be looking at guys like Lynn (sandwich choice) and Zack Cox (1st rounder). Granted, Lynn has elevated value since he is so close to the bigs.
I don’t think the Pads would or should take any offer that does not include a top 5 organizational prospect. This would be Miller, Martinez, Taverez, Cox, and maybe Lynn.
On top of that, they would get one or two filler types (Anderson, King, Pham)
From the Pads’ point of view, that makes sense. It also explains nicely why we would be nuts to make that trade.
+1
Agreed. Look at the Matt Capps trade from last year, it cost the Twins their second best prospect. And I’m not sure anyone here would argue that Capps is better than Heath Bell. The Padres are going to want quite a bit of value for Bell, and it’d probably take either Martinez or Taveras to get them to consider IMO.
Why because Bell currently takes up 25 percent of there yearly salarycap. Do you want to hold onto him for the year if a team is willing to give ok talent and take that money off the books for this year?
Because when you’re trading an established veteran for prospects (the majority of whom will not make it to the majors), it is in the trading team’s best interest to boost the return prospect value as much as they can, especially when you’re a cash-strapped team like the Padres who must learn to live off of prospects. Because of Bell’s Type A status, that’s something else of value that they would be trading to the Cardinals. If the Padres simply dump Bell without getting a top 5 prospect back, despite how much Bell makes this year, they’ll be hurting themselves in the long run.
Okay prospect talent have very little to no value when you’re discussing a trade for a veteran, because at least that veteran has proven he can play in the majors. Most okay talent don’t come close. That level of prospect are usually thrown in as part of a package, but you still need a top prospect guy (Perez, Wallace) to be the linchpin of that package.
But what if Bell were to take the arbitration offer that the Cardinals could offer? And then he could angle for a longterm deal from it. Considering he’s one of the best closers in baseball the last couple of years, that could mean he could get as much 10 million if not more. That’s a LOT of dough to give to a closer. If the Cardinals were confident that he’d remain a Type A free agent and decline arbitration, I might be a bit more inclined to make a move, but I still wouldn’t give up a whole lot. Pham, Deryk Hooker, and Blake King is about as much as I would give up for him.
if bell accepted the cards would probably trade him, much like atlanta did when rafael soriano accepted.
but that is a low leverage position from which to trade
we’re more likely to benefit from a low level prospect for an effective loogy if trev continues to malfunction
i’m a see it to believe it with tallet at this point
The Cardinals would probably recoup AS much if not more value than who they traded as they would get 2 picks and half a year of Bell. That said it just depends on who they ask for. I like Pham and Swagerty and now that Salas has solidified the closer role im not as likely to jump on a Bell trade.
Not much worse than getting a bad rental from DeRosa (no fault of anyone…just happened) and watch one of your prospects close for Cleveland. Almost as bad to trade for a bad year from Greene and watch one of your guys be a lights out setup for San Diego.
I wouldn’t be throwing Swagerty’s name into any mix. Patience may net us Salas doing a bang up job as closer by the end of the year….if not the middle.
I could not agree more!! No need to panic. Give the kid’s a chance. We’re doing O.K. for now. We’re going to like all the arm’s we have on the farm one of these day’s.
i agree too
but trading perez was just a bad idea
even if dero had not gotten hurt
the financial exchange was bad, especially when you consider that dero was essentially a utility guy with some pop and limited defensive skills
They chose to trade Perez over Motte. Its done now
Honestly, given how Perez is struggling, I’m not sure if that was a bad choice.
Perez has been deeply mediocre for Cleveland (and lucky this year). Just because he’s closing doesn’t mean he has any great value, at least so far. His peripherals have been awful in MLB; I’m not sure he’d be better than the 5th best pitcher in our pen.
We traded Perez & Todd for 3 months of DeRosa (who got unluckily injured) and, as it turned out, Tyrell Jenkins (the comp pick for DeRo). Personally, I’m not sure I’d trade Jenkins for Perez right now.
I’m not saying I would trade for Bell (personally I don’t think we need a closer) but he has way, way more value right now and going forward (as a possible type A) than the likes of Swagerty, Lynn and Pham, which I’m not sure people on a very prospect-centric site always appreciate.
If you were to make a trade you would want to clear a 40 man roster spot or 25 man spot, so I will start with Franklin for a little salary relief and clear the spot. Then Castellanos, Hooker, or a Blair as PTBNL. Can sweeten it from this point if needed but wouldn’t do much more than that. I would like to keep Swagerty and Lynn around. Miller only moves for a stud full time player.
Miller does not get moved for anybody! The reason you take a kid like that is to develop him and have him anchor your rotation. To move him would set the farm system back even further and the big league club back as well.
Rather than saying “offer to trade Franklin and Castellanos for Bell”, why not just say “I would not trade for Bell”? It’s quicker.
I’m fine with moving Lynn if he’s liked by San Diego since he’s blocked in the rotation here even if they drop Carp and it seems like Dave Duncan likes the sinker of Brandon Dickson more if an alternate was needed. Every day Lynn spends here in Memphis is one more day Shelby Miller gets closer to passing him on the depth charts and one more day older he gets himself.
To me its the best time to strike while his value is still there. Lynn fell from B- to C+: in Sickels ratings and if he labors through another year in Memphis his value could take another hit. He’s seen a major drop in HR allowed even with more fly balls this year saving his ERA but he’s allowing far more guys on base with hits.
A few problems with this:
1. If they drop Carp, they’ll have two holes in the rotation the beginning of next year; Wainwright probably won’t be ready until at least mid-season. Garcia is controlled, while Lohse and Westbrook are signed through next year.
2. Dickson is struggling so far this year. His HR rate per 9 innings has ballooned from .58 to 1.38, his strikeouts have decreased, and his FIP has gone from 3.53 to 4.55 (stats from Fangraphs). Granted, it’s early, but given what kind of pitcher he is, it bears watching. I also don’t believe Duncan sees him as a starter. More like another Hawksworth.
3. Outside of Lynn, there’s no starter in the system who’s close to the majors for the next couple of seasons. Miller and Martinez are great talents, but they’re still at the Single A level, and they’re not going to be rushed. The pitching at Springfield has a lot of interesting prospects, but they’re either struggling to make the adjustment there (Hooker, Schneider) or they’re injured (Grogen, McGregor). About the only guy I see who could arrive in Memphis sooner rather than later is Cleto, and he just got to Springfield.
1: If they do drop Carp they will only have one hole until Adam is back and if they did that they aren’t going to attempt to get by with a rookie #5. They will likely sign a veteran swing man because it would be risky to go with Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook, McClellan and Lynn.
2: Dickson got his numbers thrown off by a bad day at Albuquerque when the wind was blowing out around 20 MPH in an already crazy hitters park when he allowed 4 HR. I’m also 99% sure Duncan has said publicly he likes Dickson’s sinker as a potential future SP and he isn’t one to throw out false hype.
3: Miller is ready for the Springfield move any time as he’s blowing away these FSL hitters and is one of the minor league leaders in strike outs with a low BA against, and you always have the Cleto mystery if he can keep it together as a SP.
With limited openings for Lynn and only moderate success in Memphis so far his trade value could take a major hit and we could be setting up for another Bryan Anderson situation I feel its far better to move Lance now since he has a small window of breaking in and getting help now and using those compensation picks to restock the system will younger unblocked players with more potential upside.
Why would it be risky to go with 4 proven major league pitchers and 1 rookie?
Only Jake is fully proven Garcia is very good but he’s not this good, Lohse isn’t going to be able to keep his 2011 up and McClellan is still unknown to what he will be as a starter over a full year but is off to a good enough start wins wise he will get too much money to even go back to the pen in arbitration on this club. Garcia could easily fall into the 3′s and the other 3 without much effort could all have 4 ERA’s and Lynn isn’t getting guys out in Memphis to expect anything more than high 4′s right now.
If Garcia isn’t fully proven then nobody is. Garcia is not only acknowledged to have the best stuff on the team but he’s annihilating the sophomore jinx theory. Jaime is solid and has #1 written all over him.
Jake is stabilizing and will give us what we signed him for…. Lohse is what we thought he would be when we signed him and before he was hurt. If McClellan stays on course, no injuries or serious effects from the extra innings, then sure you can go with the best rookie we have to offer until Waino re-surfaces. If he runs out of gas early in the 2d half or is injured, then I would agree we need a veteran replacement for him.
My guess is that Waino will be pitching by mid to late June. Sticking one of our rookies in as a band aid gives him a great audition for future roles, whether with us or as trade bait.
It makes little sense to throw money at a 2 month veteran solution who then becomes a roster issue. It’s time to find out which one of the Memphis rotation is ready to help the team…and can be kept on as long relief/spot starter or optioned back to Memphis when/if we no longer require his services.
Garcia is very good but not this good, the real question is where he will settle in at. I don’t see how anyone can expect this from him because if he keeps this up he will go down as the greatest pitcher in modern MLB history, he has a 2.63 ERA even with his bad rookie BP time that ERA would be 61st all time just behind Cy Young.
Nobody in the world not even the GM though this was Lohse because it isn’t Loshe. He has a .202 BAA this year and he’s only been under .260 once and that was 2002. He’s never had less hits than IP and he’s already -18. His only sub 4 ERA year it was .272 its fun to watch but its unrealistic to think he can keep it up all year and into next year since he has a 2.17 ERA now but a 4.67 career ERA before he got hurt with us.
They would have two…unless they go out and sign or trade somebody, their rotation’s proven starters would be Garcia, Lohse, and Westbrook. McClellan is another Looper; counting on him next year would be a huge mistake, in my opinion. I’d like to see Lynn get a chance next year, but my point is more about depth in the system, since we’re talking about the possibility of trading Lynn. Trade Lynn, you’ve got nobody else who would be ready for a couple of seasons.
Duncan’s comments about Dickson came when the Cardinals were auditioning fifth starters, and he also said this: “I haven’t seen him pitch, [so] I’ll see if this is true or not when I see him pitch, but he seems to have control of his emotions.” The comments came before he really had a chance to evaluate him, and while he called Dickson’s first start in spring training “impressive,” Dickson was out of the competition fairly quickly. I also see Dickson as an extreme dark horse as a major league starting prospect (kinda like Walters) who has a better chance of being a relief pitcher.
Again…Miller won’t be rushed. He was pitching just as well last season in Quad Cities, and he spent the entire season there. I agree, Miller probably will be moved to Springfield this season, but I seriously doubt that it’ll happen soon.
And mysteries don’t make for good depth. :-) Cleto hasn’t had good success until this season. I’d rather not he be the only real starter candidate the Cardinals have in Memphis next season.
Finally, in all honesty, Lynn doesn’t have a lot a trade value to begin with because his ceiling is seen as a No. 3 starter, which are a dime a dozen in the majors and in prospect systems. Even at his best, I don’t see him as the starting point for any trade discussion for somebody like Bell. He’s one of those guys to add to the package to make it work. Moving him because we believe his trade value would be hit if he doesn’t get the opportunity next year would be a serious loss of investment in a player, because the Cardinals would have simply dumped a decent prospect and hurt their pitching depth for the next season or two. Also, given injury histories, Wainwright coming off more than a year of not pitching, and the questions surrounding the long-term dependability of the healthy starters, I really don’t see how Lynn’s opportunities would be limited.
McClellan’s arbitration should force him to stick in the rotation, and I personally think they are going to be a bit more aggressive with Miller than what you’re going. Also if you don’t think he has any trade value why is he a better option than McClellan?
As of right now Miller seems to be hesistant to work on his secondary stuff. He’s striking out a ton but the organization says a move to Class AA is in order when a pitcher is confident throwing a changeup on a 3-2 count. Also read an article where the organization feels that he needs to improve his command.
Facing more advanced hitters will force him to improve on his other stuff, facing guys who you are clearly better than isn’t going to get you better.
Because I see McClellan having a short shelf-life as a workable starter like Looper. It has nothing to do with his contract situation; it has everything to do whether he can be counted on to continue doing what he’s doing. He’s hasn’t been a full-time starter since before his TJ surgery, and he’s only been a major league starter for a a couple of months. That’s not proven, and that’s not something I would count on for next year, especially when we don’t know how or when Wainwright will come back or whether Carpenter will be back, either physically or in performance.
Again, this is about depth, and the Cardinals, right now with Carpenter and a performing McClellan, are thin in rotation depth. Making that thinner with the questions surrounding the current starters for next year doesn’t seem sensible to me.
McClellan’s contract will force him to stay as a starter with the Cards or be gone so it will everything to do with it. They are going to make some type of move to improve and I would much rather part with a blocked player who the PC may not like as much as another player rather than giving up on more projectable players.
You’re missing my point. McClellan’s contract has nothing to do with whether the Cardinals *should* count on him for next year. It has everything to do with whether McClellan can be counted on *performance-wise* for next season, and my point is that you can’t count on McClellan as a “proven starter” when he’s spent his entire career post-TJ surgery as a reliever and has been a starter for a grand total of 8 starts. Thus, as I have said, if the Cardinals let Carpenter go, they’ll have three proven starters (third-year pitcher Garcia, plus veterans Lohse and Westbrook) going into next season while waiting for Wainwright to return from surgery. That’s no where near depth, especially if you’re talking about trading Lynn. That’s the kind of “depth” the Cardinals had in 2007. Lynn is not blocked, especially you if let Carpenter go. If Lynn pulls a Garcia in next year’s spring training, you honestly believe that LaRussa and Duncan won’t move McClellan back to the bullpen to make room?
It’s not a money issue. It’s a performance issue. I know that McClellan is controlled, like Garcia. Give me some credit.
I don’t think Carp goes anywhere, I think they restructure his contract and he gets 2 years 20 million. McClellan I think if he has a good year you can reasonably expect that he has a good year next year. TLR will be safe with him like they were with Garcia last year. Lynn better start performing at Memphis before we start worrying about him pitching in STL.
Why would you do that? Carp hasn’t pitched like a $10 million dollar pitcher this year and he probably is going down hill from here.
They can’t 100% sure count on him that’s why I said they will add a veteran swing man rather than go with a rookie if the dump Carp for protection if Wainwright has a set back. Kyle McClellan would be getting a nice bump from his 2011 1.3M regardless if in the pen but if he pitches average the rest of the way with this offense he should get around 14+ wins with 6 already as a starter, he will be pricing himself out from the Cards affording to using him as a 7th or 8th inning guy.
They will need more than a veteran swingman next season if they drop Carp. They’ll need a legit, solid mid-rotation starter. Garcia is pitching great right now, but he’s not an ace (he’s a legit No. 2 guy filling in). Lohse and Westbrook are historically mid-rotation starters who have been erratic the past few seasons, partially due to injuries. There’s a chance Carpenter has begun a fast regression. We don’t know how effective Wainwright will be. A swingman–who typically is somebody isn’t effective enough to be a shutdown reliever or an everyday starter– isn’t going to fill the Cardinals needs as well as a starting prospect who is close to the majors and who still has options.
Also, given the amount of players the Cardinals will have to resign next season, I seriously doubt that adding to the rotation from outside the organization is high on their priority list, with or without Pujols.
LaRussa and Duncan will play McClellan where they feel he is most effective, regardless of his contract. Remember, Duncan was also considering McClellan as a future closer candidate as recently as Spring Training before Wainwright went down.
No one was in the competition for very long. After the second start it was pretty much named for McClellan. The biggest issue TLR and Ducnan had with Kmac getting the role was because of the hit the bullpen would take. Duncan said that Dickson had a real major league arm and a great sinker. That might have been an jab/point of contrast with Walters. Don’t see why you shouldn’t count on McClellan. They will control his innings this year like they did with Garcia last year but thats expected. Lynn hasn’t even done well this year. Ottavino has performed better than Lynn to this point and is a better prospect in my opinion. If Lynn can get it back in track this year he may have some trade value. I don’t see him cracking the rotation next year unless there are 2 injuries. Or if Kmac is back in the bullpen and they don’t want to stretch him out in the middle of the year if there is an injury at that point.
>>>”Don’t see why you shouldn’t count on McClellan.”
See Looper. Garcia isn’t a good comparable, because he’s been a starter his entire career. McClellan hasn’t had a starter’s workload since 2004, when he was 20 (he’s now 27) and pitching in Single A. There is absolutely no guarantee that he’ll physically hold up, which is what happened to Looper. McClellan also has had a grand total of 8 starts; we do not know if he can continue his current success, or if he’ll begin to struggle as the season progresses, which is also what happened to Looper in 2007 and 2008 for the Cardinals, which were his two good seasons as a starter before blowing up in 2009 and now is out of baseball two years later. McClellan hasn’t even reached 70 innings yet this season as a starter (75 innings has been his typical workload as a reliever).
If there are two injuries next season, the Cardinals will need a heck of a lot more than Lynn to fill the gap.
I wouldn’t say Kopp is ready now, but if he stays healthy he could be by the end of the year.
To be totally honest Dickson doesn’t have major league stuff, is 27 year old and may never be any more than a AAA guy.
The Padres would expect either Cox or Shelby Miller as one of the package in exchange for Bell. They were able to get
Boston’s top two prospects for Gonzales. They regard Bell as the top reliever and would auction him to obtain a similar
high value prospect. They would not regard Lynn or Swagarty or Sslas as sufficient compensation for Bell. They will get a high
value package from some club; I hope it is not the Cardinals.
While I agree that the Padres are going to demand a LOT for Heath Bell, there is no comparison between Bell and Gonzo. Gonzo was clearly the second best first baseman in baseball outside of PETCO Park (just check out his away splits and project them in a neutral park as a home park). The Padres HAD to get a great deal for him.
Adrian Gonzalez and Bell are in a totally different league. They will never get a Miller/Cox for him. Not from us at least.
The idea of trading Cox really does not bother me that much given he only plays 3B, is an average defender, and does not project to hit for power. How much of an upgrade will he be over M. Carp? Not sure right now. Freese can’t stay healthy so the concern of Cox having to displace Freese is waining. But a rental of Bell is not the sort of deal I think the Cards should move Cox for. With Wainwright done for the season, are we really in the market for that one last piece? How much of an upgrade is Bell over Salas? I guess Salas will let us know over the next several months. The Cards have a number of mid level movable parts but you can’t get Bell with those chips. Let’s not panic and make another DeRosa deal.
In the Derosa deal, we essentially traded Chris Perez for Tyrell Jenkins. Even considering DeRosa gave the Cards nothing (because of injury), it’s not a particularly good example of giving up too much for too little.
Disagree. 1) We have no idea what Tyrell Jenkins will turn into. He’s just a bundle of potential at this point. The chances of Jenkins becoming a major league player of equal value to Perez are not good at this point. Could happen but not good odds. 2) Exchanging a productive, cost controlled player off of your major league roster for a future draft pick, even if the two players turn out to have equivalent careers, involves a time value loss if Jenkins’ production lags Perez’s by five years. The principle is the same as the time value of money principal. It is also why in NFL trades involving future draft picks the value assigned to a draft depreciated when it is for a later (i.e., we are making a trade just before the 2011 trade dead line and I off pics for the 2012 draft). Current Indians closer Chris Perez for a future draft pick that turned into 18 year old Tyrell Jenkins the following year was poor trade if that is the argument.
Let me put it another way. If we still had Chris Perez nobody would be talking about trying to trade for Bell because we would have an established closer. Tyrell Jenkins would never in a million years return you Health Bell, nor Chris Perez for that matter. It’s not even a debatable issue. Since going to CLE, Chris Perez has 35 saves and an ERA+ of 148. I’ll be a happy man if Tyrell Jenkins turns his potential into a productive MLB career but he has a very long road to get travel.
I think that Jenkins could very easily get Perez or Bell but at thi spoint he can’t even be traded nor he shouldnt. We got a shot at the 2009 WS with DeRosa he was just hurt in a freak accident. People don’t seem to remember how bad we were at 3b that year. Who did we ahve? Brian Barden and Joe Thurston that year.
Jenkins alone doesn’t get you close to getting either of those guys. Bell is probably worth 2 first round picks at a minimum (due to being a FA and probably getting offered arbitration) and Perez is probably worth as much or more as a cost controlled above average closer. Jenkins hasn’t even shown he is worth a supplemental pick yet , let alone his 1st round bonus money.
Why is everyone perpetuating this myth that Chris Perez is good? He is not.
He has a K:BB ratio of 1 this year. That’s APPALLING. He’s been pretty mediocre so far and, with neutral HR/FB luck, he’s been about a replacement-level relief pitcher in his career so far. His ERA and saves this year are a mirage and if he keeps pitching like he has done he’ll come crashing down.
No way would you trade Jenkins for Perez. No way in the world.
Bell will likely net you 2 picks both higher than where Jenkins was taken so his asking price is more and the Tribe isn’t going to part with Perez for a very raw project.
Perez developed well but he hadn’t shown much at the big league level with us. It was a trade that had to happen at the time.
I understand the deal and I’m fine with it since unfortunately DeRosa got hurt when if he stayed healthy he would likely been a Type A FA and we could have had another pick along with the one who became Seth Blair. My post was about Perez value is now at its peak with him being solid at a reasonable price and it would take a nice package to get him out of Cleveland even if they weren’t rolling.
That makes sense……I do have to add that many people thought Jenkins would be a steal at 50, he was projected to be going to the Yankees at the end of the first round.
He should be a good prospect for sure just not one you deal cheap effective closers for straight up when you’re a first place club. Jenkins could easily be a but and also easily flame out being that raw.
I don’t think trading for a closer,is what this team needs at all.With augenstein and Ottavino getting closer to healthy,and the sucess of Salas and Sanchez early on, I would only move prospects for a middle infielder. Arizona can use help everywhere, and Drew would look awfully nice in Cardinal red.
They aren’t trading Stephen Drew for anything short of Shelby Miller, I can assure you of that. You don’t trade good, young shorstops who isn’t a liability defensively.
Its totally possible that AZ would take Nick Stavinoha, Dickson, and Brian Anderson in a trade.
For who?
That’s probably true,but I still say if you’re going to throw prospects around, you should at least try to address the most pressing needs of your ballclub. Arizona hasn’t drafted or signed well now for two years and it’s really starting to show,putting together a package of need positions for them really shouldn’t be difficult.
Outside of Tyler Skaggs and Jarrod Parker, their farm is rather underwhelming. The first J.J. Hardy trade (to Minnesota) was the closest recent comparison I could come up with and he netted Carlos Gomez, who was at one point the Mets third best prospect in 2007. So minimum, there going to want a package that starts with one of Miller, Martinez, or Cox to get them to even consider.
Too bad we don’t have anybody like Luke Gregerson…
My feeling is that the major league clubs main weakness is going to be depth. We’ve already raided the Memphis club for RHRP and infield backups. Any injury to the rotation would require the services of either Lynn, Ottavino or Walters. I say we ride this current bullpen and see how Salas, Boggs and Sanchez do.
Amen! Shelby struck out 10 tonight and Mattinez 9 last night. Just hang in there.