A solid night down on the farm including more powerful hits by Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal‘s return and John Gast‘s best pro start of his young career.
- Adron Chambers was 1-for-3 with a pair of walks. Chambers is playing quite poorly after vaulting on to numerous Cardinal prospect lists. He sports a sub-.700 OPS after 122 ABs.
- Andrew Brown was 1-for-4 with a walk.
- Mark Hamilton walked twice in his 4 PAs.
- Bryan Anderson went yard.
- Brandon Dickson was touched up for 4 runs in 6.2 IP. He allowed 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 3.
- Jess Todd struggled to finish out the 7th allowing 2 hits (1 HR) and walking 1. He recorded just the final out of the 7th.
Springfield 8, Tulsa 6 (12 innings)
- Jose Garcia went 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles.
- Ryan Jackson was 0-for-5.
- Matt Adams had a big day going 3-for-6 with a pair of HRs.
- Alex Castellanos, Eric Duncan, Audry Perez and Charlie Cutler all went 2-for-5. The last three each recorded a double.
- Scott Schneider went 6 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 6 and record 8 of 10 outs on balls in play via groundballs.
- Springfield scored the go ahead run in the top of the 10th but Nick Greenwood allowed Tulsa to tie up the game in the bottom of the inning.
- Sam Freeman picked up the save with a 1 hit, 1 strikeout 12th.
Palm Beach 5, Brevard County 1
- Zach Cox went 2-for-3 with a double and a walk.
- Edgar Lara went 2-for-4 with a walk.
- Palm Beach recorded 6 walks.
- John Gast tossed an impressive complete game allowing just 6 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 4. Most impressive was the 14-5 groundout to flyout ratio. This was the first complete game in Palm Beach since a Scott Schneider outing late last year.
- Michael Swinson was 2-for-3 with a pair of walks.
- Chris Edmondson was 2-for-3 with a double and a walk.
- Ronnie Gil went 3-for-4.
- Trevor Rosenthal pitched 5 innings of 1-hit baseball. He struck out 7 and recorded 6 groundouts.
- Angel de Jesus pitched two scoreless frames striking out 1.
Entries (RSS)
Have to figure that Matt Adams will begin to garner some national recognition if he keeps hitting like this despite any questions about his body, defense, and plate discipline. The guy has some monster power.
Also good to see Cox with another solid game. I think he is starting to adjust to the Major league game.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Cox is adjusting to the minor league game, we’ll only know about the major league game at some time in the future.
True I actually meant pro ball rather than major league. There is still a big jump from college to the minors.
To get much National recognition I think he’ll have to hit 40+ or league the minors in HR’s. The prospect Guru’s will discount anything less due to park/league factors.
I think league concerns are valid, but look at these numbers .338/.406/.571 in 520 abs. These are the numbers that Eric Hosmer, who is widely considered a top 5 or 10 prospect in the minors, put up last year split between the Carolina and Texas leagues. In the Texas league he put up .313/.365/.615 with 13 homers in 195 ab’s. Compare that to Adams .307/.352/.633 in 166 ab’s. The numbers are comparable. Not to mention the fact that his numbers are fairly consistent with what he has done the last couple of years.
This said I am not so deluded to think that he is the same caliber of prospect as Hosmer. He is not as athletic and may not project quite as well to the majors. But given his numbers I don’t see why he could not be thrown in with the top 50 or at least top 100 players in the minors. That is assuming he keeps going at a pace close to what he is at now. Though obviously I doubt he will hit the 40 homer mark that his numbers project to.
Adams has put up a 136 wRC+ (runs created per PA as a percentage of league average production, where 100 is average). Hosmer put up a 166 in his stint. Therefore the difference between Hosmer and Adams is approximately the difference between Adams and an average Texas League hitter.
Also, Hosmer was 20 and Adams is 22.
In that context, the numbers aren’t comparable at all. And as we all know, prospect evaluation is all about context.
Agreed, I’m not saying they are the same caliber of prospect. Just that the numbers they put in the league are SOMEWHAT comparable. WHich makes me wonder why a hitter like Adams who has hit well in his last two seasons as well as this one can’t break into anybody’s top 100 prospect list. Outside of this obvious bad body argument anyway.
Also even at 22 Adams is still relatively young for the league.
The bad body is a concern, obviously, but there are two things that keep cropping up:
1. His defense is highly questionable. He was both a catcher and first baseman at Slippery Rock, but he’s been focused on 1B since turning pro. As it stands right now, he’s a work in progress and no where near major league level. First base is usually a position you hide power hitters with holes in their defensive game (i.e., Allen Craig saw a lot of time there in Memphis in 2009 and 2010 because of his weak arm); if Adams is struggling there, in my mind, there’s a question that he may not be capable of handling the position in the majors.
2. Some have mentioned some holes to his approach at the plate. He has a great swing and a ton of power, but his plate discipline indicates some vulnerabilities that could be exploited and sap his effectiveness at higher levels.
The thing to remember about Adams is that because he was a college player, albeit a Division II player, he was more polished at than many of the players at the Single A level, including pitchers. Thus, many of his weaknesses were masked. Just like Matt Carpenter, he really wasn’t going to be tested until he reached Springfield, so many prospect evaluators probably took that into account. For instance, Scout.com had Adams ranked at No. 33 in the system going into this year, and for the most part, they’re big fans of the guy.
I agree with cariocacardinal Adams needs a blowaway number of HR on the year to get truly talked about there since its a big hitters league. He would have got more pub by hitting tons of HR in the FSL rather than the Texas league.
I see his year in the mold of a Kila Ka’aihue he rolled over AA and some into AAA in 08 for a line of .314/.456/.628/1.085 with 37 homers and got a taste of the show posting a .804 OPS In 21 at bats. That year he had 104 walks to just 67 strike outs with all the pop and all it got him was a token #9 sport in Baseball Americas Royals list the 12th best prospect in the small eight team Texas league.
I just looked Ka’aihue’s numbers and yes he had a great year in ’08 but the two years before that were decent at best. .248/.359/.435 in ’07 and in ’06 he put up .199/.303/.300. I think the comparison of the perception of them before getting to the minors is more similar as Ka’aihue was a fifteenth round pick, but their production prior to the big season are far separated. In ’09 Adams put up .355/.400/.547 and in ’10 he put up .310/.355/.541.
Maybe you are right. It could very well be that he needs a monster year to get attention since he is pretty much unknown. But he at least should be in my opinion in the top 50 or 100 IF he continues.
Adams didn’t get any love for his big years because scouts are down on his body, its still the same now so these HR aren’t going to make him look any more slim. Ka’aihue had one of the best years a player could have in minors and took tons of walks and didn’t K then had a nice cup of coffee and also wasn’t classified as a bad body player and it got him only mild recognition
Fair enough. I still disagree with them. A bad body at first is not as big a deal.
Don’t know how it compares – Kila couldn’t make it in the majors because he can’t consistently hit a curve. I’m convinced in the minors he let curves go and sat fast ball. That’s why he had so many walks. In the majors, those curves are coming in for strikes.
By skipping to AA, he has become one of the younger players in the league. He is 7th in OPS but only one of the guys above him is within a year of his age. He leads the league in HR’s and tied with rbi’s. Yeah, I’d say he is on the verge of making a splash if he can keep this up.
Adams still only has a 136 wRC+. That’s basically what Jon Jay and Yadier Molina have done this year in the majors, in terms of hitting value in their respective leagues.
When you adjust for the hitter-friendly park and league, his numbers really aren’t that other-worldly (Tommy Pham has hit nearly as well as a centrefielder, .381 wOBA to Adams’ .391 wOBA, and Alex Castellanos has a .429 wOBA to lead the Springfield Cardinals).
Ronny Gil 5-7 on the weekend.
As I mentioned in another thread, Hamilton now has 15 BB and just 7 K’s at AAA this year.
I really hope Gil can emerge as a legitimate prospect. It would be nice to have a good shortstop prospect in the system. Not to mention he already has 2 sb’s so he must have at least decent wheels.
Supposedly, he’s supposed to be an excellent defensive shortstop. If the offense is there, too…yeah, it would be a nice and much-needed surprise.
I think Ronny Gil has more hits this weekend than the other Quad Cities Shortstops have had all season, or it just seems that way.
Actually Greg Garcia has hit decently and he has played a lot of SS. Garcia is still just 21. He may have a chance to play at higher levels.
Yeah, i was thinking of the palm beach shortstops
I’ve seen Garcia once and seemed like everything he hit he hit extremely hard. He lined out a couple of times (if memory serves me correctly) but he seemed to hit the ball on the screws every time.
Sucks to see Ryan Jackson with another bad day at the dish to fall down to just .260 during his 19 for 107 .178 slump after the torrid start.
Looks like Dickson runs out of gas right late check this out his last 4 7th innings of work in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Today
Tacoma Bottom of the 7th
Matt Tuiasosopo strikes out swinging, catcher Bryan Anderson to first baseman Mark Hamilton.
Jose Yepez grounds out, shortstop Donovan Solano to first baseman Mark Hamilton.
Sean Kazmar singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daryl Jones.
With Dustin Ackley batting, wild pitch by Brandon Dickson, Sean Kazmar to 2nd.
Dustin Ackley homers (7) on a line drive to right field. Sean Kazmar scores.
Pitcher Change: Jess Todd replaces Brandon Dickson.
May 16, 2011
Fresno Top of the 7th
Tyler Graham grounds out, first baseman Nick Stavinoha to pitcher Brandon Dickson.
Chris Stewart singles on a ground ball to pitcher Brandon Dickson.
Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter Brad Eldred replaces Doug Mathis.
Brad Eldred homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Chris Stewart scores.
Emmanuel Burriss grounds out, second baseman Ramon Vazquez to first baseman Nick Stavinoha.
Edgar Gonzalez flies out to right fielder James Rapoport.
May 06, 2011
Albuquerque Bottom of the 7th
Trent Oeltjen lines out to shortstop Pete Kozma.
Corey Smith doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder James Rapoport.
Jamie Hoffmann homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Corey Smith scores.
Pitcher Change: Cory Rauschenberger replaces Brandon Dickson, batting 7th.
April 30, 2011
Round Rock Top of the 7th
Endy Chavez walks.
Brian Barden grounds into double play, shortstop Pete Kozma to second baseman Freddie Bynum to first baseman Nick Stavinoha. Endy Chavez out at 2nd.
Chad Tracy doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Aaron Luna.
Brad Nelson homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Chad Tracy scores.
Pitcher Change: Blake King replaces Brandon Dickson.
In the one start in there he didn’t go 7 he would have gave up a RBI double in his last inning of work in the 6th had it not been for a CS.
Does anybody else hope we can land Dillon Howard in the draft he kind of sounds like Shelby Miller part 2 with a slider instead of a curve?
Need to draft a position player 1st round. Specifically, we could do with a middle infield prospect. Our pitching at almost every level has a high caliber pitching prospect. You can never have enough good pitching but the position prospect depth of this organization is severely lacking.
Got a few OF prospects: Taveras and Brown (maybe Castellanos and Pham). A few 1B prospects: Hamilton and Adams. 3B prospects in M Carp and Cox. …that’s about it. Might be one or two guys I am missing but the depth is weak and there really is no bona fide middle infield prospect in this organization. Jackson is the closest thing and his bat hasn’t shown enough yet.
Good teams simply don’t draft for need. The MLB Draft is alot riskier than the NFL or NBA draft. The only smart thing the Cards can do is draft the best player available no matter who it is.
Drafting for need got us Pete Kozma.
I dont think any Cardinal official has ever said Kozma was drafted based on need. You are making an assumption and I believe that assumption is based mostly on the fact that Kozma has been pretty much a bust.
I wasn’t on board with the Kozma pick but I have no reason to believe it was anything other than what they thought was the best player available.
Everything I’ve read says that Kozma was projected as a 2nd or 3rd round talent and everyone on the draft show was pretty much shocked when it happened. It is actually online and you can watch that draft. If I remember correctly also our system was pretty barren at the time and Eckstein had just left I think. I could be wrong though.
Read the below post. There were projections of him all over the place from mid first round to late second.
Plus if we were drafting for need with a barren system of SS’s we would have drafted a college guy.
Agreed. Who drafts a high school player for “need”? This isn’t the NFL. The whole rationale of drafting Kozma for need doesn’t even make sense. If he’d been successful he would have been the “best player available.”
About the only thing one could say about that draft is that the Cards (and a slew of other teams) didn’t want to pay Porcello’s asking price. Which was an expected outcome and a quite reasonable decision.
As I recall Kozma was projected to go no later than the supplemental 1st round. I also believe that it has been widely mentioned that a team behind the Cardinals WAS going to take Kozma and they would have missed out on him.
The whole Porcello thing has been told. The Cardinals were clearly hesitant to give a HS pitcher a big bonus AND a major league contract. That seems reasonable to me, and I can’t really blame them.
I also recall that the Cardinals really wanted Kevin Ahrens, but the Blue Jays took him just ahead of the Cardinals. Ahrens would not have been considered a reach at that point. Ahrens is currently posting a .746 OPS……in the Florida State League.
Baseball America had Kozma projected at 15 to the Reds the day of the draft so its not like they pulled the name out of nowhere.
Actually, Kozma was the best player available. He was a riskier pick because he was a HS kid. Are advocates on this board really pushing for more proven college players?
The problem wasn’t kozma, it was just a down year overall. Kozma was actually pretty highly touted and not a reach.
People are upset because the cards passed on Porecello, just like the rest of MLB. Why did the pass, buecause its never a good idea to put an 18 YO pitcher on your mlb roster.
Please do not try to sell the idea that he was the best player available with Porcello on the board. That is a total farce.
Lots of teams passed on Porcello because of $$$ it had very little to do with his talent.
Yep fortunately I think we learned from that with Cox and Miller as examples.
Big, big difference.
Miller isn’t on the 40 man.
Cox is an established college player who was 21 and played in the SEC.
I was just making a point that we haven’t been shying away from big signing bonuses. Not about the players themselves.
They did before either. JD DRew, Rick Ankiel.
I really beleive scouting/evaluating was the bigger problem, not the willingness to spend.
I think the cards brass is much more confortable now being persuaded to spend the money because its a better process. Judging by the players drafted at the end of Jocketty’s era, i wouldn’t have been convinced either by the people running the show.
Same with Andrew Brackman, he had had an elbow issue going into the month before the draft be he was clearly better than Kozma also.
Clearly better….Not sure how you can justify that comment.
You say clearly better, yet 10 other teams after the cards passed on him as well.
Brackman was someone who wanted a huge contract and a major league deal. He was a Top 5 talent. People fall because of bonus demands thats what happened with Porcello and Brackman but EVERYONE thought they were both better than Kozma and they were.
Its like people can’t look at this objectively.
His value dropped because his first action as a profession was to have TJ surgery.
So now we are arguing paying multi-million dollar deal to immediatly go under the knife as a solid pick at #18?
Again, why is that a good idea.
Its not. They’re just playing arm chair GMs. Im sure if I could tell the future I would make good draft choices every time, but in real life it all comes down to a choice. Regardless whether or not you believe Porcello was a huge huge risk, it is naive to deny that the cards went through this decision without a thought process. Putting a kid on your 40 man and paying him tons of money can be disastrous, especially a pitcher, and history as proven so with HS arms. We would be singing a very different tune if Kozma turned out to be decent or Porcello flamed out. I agree with management’s decision.
The thing is, Alex (for some reason I am unable to reply directly to you), there were very good reasons at the time of the draft to believe that Koz was significantly more likely to flame out than that P-guy, or at least, not to have the skills necessary for a productive pro career. That isn’t results mongering; it’s remembering the way things were.
As regards Brackman, everyone knew he was a high-risk, high-reward guy. I recall very little grousing that the team didn’t take him. For that matter there was also no complaining that I recall about not taking Stanton, who was still available (and wasn’t taken by several following teams either). It just wasn’t a very good pool — but the best guy in that pool was not taken.
A sufficient observation on that draft is that given several opportunities to burn high draft choices since 2007 on Koz-like high-floor, low-ceiling guys, the team has declined to do so. Vuch, Luhnow and Mo learn from their mistakes — one of the most admirable of all human traits, but it doesn’t mean a mistake wasn’t made.
Kozma probably was. Remember you really can’t use hind sight as an example.
Please don’t tell me that putting 18 year old pitchers on the 40 man is a good idea. That is a total farce. So why are you pretending its a non factor. I never understood why people always leave that fact out when discussing Porcello.
Do you really beleive money was the only issue holding people back?
Lots of teams passed, alot of it because of the money, most because of the roster demand. Baseball has witness to many young guys flame out to consider it a good risk. The Reds signed chapman to a $30 million dollar deal.
With that said, The best moved might have been to draft him, and take a hard stance on the major league roster and get another pick the next year, but was that rule in place then?
Kozma was the shocker of the first round not just for Cardinal fans but with everyone. That draft is on the internet to watch for free, Kozma was thought of as a 2nd round guy and then he was picked in the first it shocked alot of people nationally.
He went 18th. So it should not have been a total suprise to see him go in the bottom half of the first round.
That was also the last draft with Jocketty as GM. Who knows how they were picking that year.
I’ll 100% agree that an 18 year old on the 40 man is a risky proposition, which only further proves you wrong. That is not a talent issue that’s a contract issue and a money issue. Rick Porcello was a better prospect than Pete Kozma at the time of the draft. Plain and simple.
And I pretty much agree with that, so how does it prove me wrong? Never said that Kozma was a better prospect, so no point in making a straw man argument.
Kozma was a lesser prospect in a weak draft. In most years he probaly isn’t worth an 18 selection, but this wasn’t most years. Porcello aside, people are trying to play off that this draft was rich in talent, which it wasn’t. You had Porcello and a few guys at the top and that is about it.
Rick porcello’s contract is different becasue it is a gurenteed ML contract so it does inflates the price. I do think he was worth top money because he was that special, but not at the cost of the roster spot and the cash. I would have been fine with the bonus ($3.5-which was the higest ever), but not the entitlement of the roster.
You said :”Actually, Kozma was the best player available.”
I said:”Rick Porcello was a better prospect than Pete Kozma at the time of the draft.”
In between there you countered with the idea that Porcello’s contract demands (40man roster) and money frightened teams off. Neither of those things speak to who was the best player available. The concept of best player available specifically ignores everything besides baseball talent.
So I stand by my argument that you were wrong and that Kozma was not the best player available.
When I said best player available, I meant “Realisticly” the best player available, i.e. outside of Porecllo. Under no circumstances should an 18 YO be on a 40 man roster, so that made porcello an unrealistic pick.
So yes, Porcello was vastly more talented than Kozma. I wasn’t trying to imply that he wasn’t. So the cards could have drafted him and ended up with nobody in the first round that year.
“When I said best player available, I meant “Realisticly” the best player available, i.e. outside of Porecllo. ”
Perhaps then the fault lies in your lack of clarity, and not in other people’s lack of comprehension.
Edit: I asked before, but hadn’t got an anser yet? Was this before they implemented the rule you got a same slot pick the following year if you couldn’t sign? If that rule was in place, the the cards should have picked him – no excuses what so ever. At worst, you pick in the same spot in a deeper draft.
dunno – how many times have teams actually dug their heels in? I can only think of one or two.
but the new rule allows for the freedom to do just that. It gives the drafting teams more barganing power.
What happens to a players value if they don’t get signed 2 years in a row?
It is worth noting, however, that the pick is worth a lot less in year 2. Because you HAVE to sign the player you pick in the second year (after letting your pick walk in the first year), it gives the player a lot more bargaining power and means you can’t really afford to pick a risky sign.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=1&year_ID=2007&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
agree with the “down year.” not any big misses in there……
Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting. Tons of misses above him as well.
You are correct. You NEVER draft for need in the MLB draft.
Way too many variables. The MLB draft is nothing like football or baseball.
The resemblance to the Kozma situation is too strong for my liking. Yes, this is reputed to be a “good” draft class overall. However, it is not considered good in middle-infield talent, quite the contrary. To go for a middle-infield prospect will entail an overdraft any way you cut it, unless you know of a big-time shortstop prospect that nobody else knows about. (It does happen.) That’s what needs to be avoided: failing to tap into the strength of a draft when other teams are doing so.
I think great high school pitching is gonna fall to us in this draft. I really hope Henry Owens does. The more I hear and see of him, the more I am impressed. At the same time, I think his name might go early.
I like Robert Stephenson, but there are so many great high school arms this year, I’d be fine with any number of them.
Yup would love Dillon Howard this year.
Rosenthal!!!! Be still my beating heart
Yeah, the Rosentrain is back. His back is still sore, but he is managing it better now. My spies have told me he has discovered a curve ball. Ruh-roh……
Colin Walsh made his 2011 debut Sunday, going 1-3 with a BB and 2 RBI.
With all the problems with middle infielders up and down the system, it’s surprising that Gil and Walsh weren’t be on full-season rosters until now. Was it because of injuries?
Walsh played 28 games at QC last summer, after a month in Batavia. Going into this season, I thought he might be playing at Palm Beach by now.
Walsh had an interesting season last year – more walks than strike outs. If he can keep that up, you are right, he will be in Palm Beach soon
anyone heard anything about Sam Tuivalaillailaaialla? :) too lazy to look up how to spell it correctly. is he still playing or have they shifted him to pitch? he apparently had about a 90 mph fastball in HS. also he was 17 when he graduated so he has lot’s of projection.
I’m sure he’ll start at short-season ball being that he’s so young.
Not a big deal…but before yesterday Juan Nicasio had pitched 50 innings for Tulsa, with a fantastic 60-to-10 strikeout/walk ratio, and just ONE home run.
Matt Adams took him deep. Twice.
To be fair him and all the arms in the game the wind was blowing out 22 mph and 8 of the 11 pitchers used gave up runs and 43% of the hits went as extra base hits.
I think Adams is definitely among the top 10 Cards prospects. Not sure if he cracks top 5, but I think that is a testament to how far the system has improved over the last 1-2 years.
I say zero shot he’s top 10 in the organization since you have Miller, Cox, Martinez, Jenkins, Swagerty, Taveras as front runners along with Kelly and Blair who have name value the question mark on how they view Lynn and then a bunch of young wildcards and guys who scouts like better than Adams like Cleto, Carpenter, Pham, Rosenthal and Jackson along with our new 2011 draft kids and that’s no counting any breakouts like with better all round projection or at more premium positions like maybe a Ronny Gil.
I agree I doubt he is but thats too bad cause he could win the Organizational Triple Crown this year or at least 2 of the 3.
I doubt you have actually heard straight from a scout’s mouth that they like Cleto, M Carp, Pham, and Jackson better than Adams. Rather, it seems likely you are making an extrapolation based on WRITER’S hype, which is in part their interpretations of what scout’s think from conversations and reports.
Jenkins hasn’t even pitched more than 3 IP in the minors. Being drafted high does not make you a great prospect. Pete Kozma a good example. Adams is leading…LEADING the Texas League in homers and RBIs and has the 6th highest BA among those with 140+ ABs.
Name value means little to me. Kelly is a decent prospect but hasn’t done anything to wow in the minors. Blair certainly hasn’t proven anything. Taveras has looked good but Adams is two levels higher and leading his league in RBIs. Not sure what more you want.
Jackson is batting .259…so don’t know why you would put him ahead of Adams. Pham has hit very well but Adams has even much better.
With the possible exceptions of Cox and M Carp, I see Adams as definitely our best position prospect. I personally would rank Adams higher than Cox because Adams is putting up the stats you hope for from a top position prospect and he’s doing it in AA. M Carp is a nice player and I like him, but Adams is flashing more power than M Carp ever did in AA and looks to completely overshadow M Carp in other areas.
I see Adams in AAA by mid-July. Other than a higher OBP, I’m not sure what more you could want from Adams. I’ll say it again, he’s leading his league in homers and RBIs. If you’re expecting more, then your standards for breaking into being a top prospect is ridiculous.
“Taveras has looked good but Adams is two levels higher and leading his league in RBIs. Not sure what more you want.”
If you really think a defensively bad 22-year old 1B with a 145 wRC+ in AA is a better prospect than an 18-year old OF with a 254 wRC+ in single-A, and cite RBIs as one of the reasons for that, there really isn’t any sensible way to answer that I’m afraid…
“M Carp is a nice player and I like him, but Adams is flashing more power than M Carp ever did in AA and looks to completely overshadow M Carp in other areas.”
Which areas? Other than hitting the ball hard, Carpenter is streets ahead of Adams in all other respects.
“Pham has hit very well but Adams has even much better.”
Adams is a bad defensive 1B, and Pham is a good defensive CF. They’re also similar ages (Pham’s a couple of years older, and it’s true he’s in his second go-around AA). Pham’s career hitting in AA is better than Adams (.381 wOBA this year and .427 last year, Adams has a .405 wOBA this year). Pham’s been lucky on balls in play, but Adams has more question marks over his K/BB ratio which is important at the higher levels and MLB. Overall, I think it’s very hard to make a cogent argument for Adams as a better prospect than Pham, given the massive defensive deficit Adams has to overcome with his (not even necessarily superior) bat.
Defense does not get you to the majors as a 1B, your bat does. Being a good defensive 1B helps you but what gets you to the majors as a 1B is your bat, not your glove.
We’ve already gone over BB rates on this website so I’m not going to rehash it. Adams has expanded his strike zone so he can hit. It’s proven to be a very successful strategy. Taking walks for the sake of taking walks is foolish.
Adams is not a strikeout machine. Far from it actually. He has a high batting average (.316) and he only has 34 Ks to his 171 ABs (19.8%). At this rate over 500 ABs, Adams would have less than 100 Ks. Not bad for a slugger.
As for Taveras, he only has 58 ABs in anything above rookie ball. It’s awesome he’s started out so hot and he is certainly someone to keep an eye on but I don’t see how he has enough ABs to qualify for prospect ranking yet. I count A ball and higher. Lots of guys excel in the rookie league and then are nothing. If you choose to put stock in rookie ball numbers, that’s certainly your choice. I do not though. His rookie ball numbers btw aren’t that impressive anyways.
I guess you haven’t looked at M Carp’s stats last year at AA compared to Adams. Over 472 ABs, M Carp batted .316, .900 OPs, with 12 homers and 53 RBIs. Over 171 ABs, Adams has the same batting average, a .990 OPS, 13 homers and 41 RBIs. So M Carp last year can’t be “streets ahead” if Adams has the same BA, already more homers in less than 2/5ths of the ABs, and will obliterate his RBI totals. Yes, RBI totals matter…because they show to a point how you are batting with RISP and how clutch you are. Adams is batting .373 with RISP. That’s not slugging, that’s just a really good contact ratio with RISP.
The ONLY category that Pham is higher in is OBP and that’s by a mere .013 percentage points. Lower BA (.283), lower SLG% (.513 compared to Adams .632), lower doubles (Adams 11 Pham 9), lower triples (Adams 2 Pham 1), OPS (Adams .990 Pham .884), RBIs (Adams 41 Pham 11), and homers (Adams 13 Pham 5).
It needs to be acknowledged that Adams has 171 ABs and Pham only has 113 ABs. If Pham had 58 more ABs, the doubles and triples could be different. Other stats as well could be. But Adams has actually DONE what you want from a 1B with the bat. How you discount that is mind-boggling. If you were crafting the kind of numbers you want from a 1B slugger at AA, you would want what Adams is putting up, with the possible exception of walks.
But if walks is your only argument against ranking Adams among the top position prospects then that is ridiculous. No other player in recent years has put up the stat line of Adams through 171 ABs at AA. He is proving he is a run producer. Pham could arguably be ahead of Adams but I like to base my position ranks mostly on the hard, recent numbers.
And those are showing that Adams has as good a chance as anyone at AA that he can make an impact in the majors.
Hahahahahahaha….kozma as the best Player available…bwahahahaha