Since someone people believe that Matt Adams is in the same robot doghouse as Chuckie Fick, here’s some fun comparisons with Adams’ power output this year.
Matt Adams currently has a .652 slugging percentage, which is the highest in the Texas League. When he makes contact, it is solid contact.
Matt Adams’ slugging percentage is only 25 points lower than Ryan Jackson’s current OPS.
Matt Adams is overshadowing teammate Alex Castellanos who has a similar, if not exaggerated, no walk profile but a .635 SLG. Adams and Castellanos rank 4th and 5th in the Texas League OPS.
Palm Beach has had 20 players take an at bat for them in 2011. Matt Adams’ SLG is higher than 12 of their seasonal OPS marks.
Add 50 points to Matt Adams slugging percentage and you get the highest OPS Pete Kozma has ever posted in the minors during a year.
Matt Adams’ power has been roughly as valuable in Springfield as Matt Carpenter’s walk rate.
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Like I said, I’ve talked to several people over here who love the guy. Keith Law also answered a question in one of his latest chats where he really likes him, as well.
over here? Please expand. I recall someone on here a while back who’d spoken to a couple of scouts who weren’t very high on him. Who’ve you spoken to?
Adams is a beast. Hitting better in AA than he did at Palm Beach and he totally skipped Quad Cities.
Hamilton is swinging very well in Memphis but he did not look all that impressive for his few ABs in the majors from what I saw. Could we possibly see the Cards release Stavinoha and then put Hamilton in the OF? I know Brown and Hamilton in the OF would be terrible and frustrating for the Cardinals’ AAA pitchers but calling up Adams to AAA by mid-July would really be in the best interests of the system.
I think it would be in the best interests of the Cardinals to put themselves in a position to see Adams as a September call up if Adams continues to produce. Hamilton’s got the AAA stats you like in a 1B prospect (with the exceptions of homers this year) but he hasn’t impressed in the majors. Adams should be given a shot so the Cards know what they have going into the offseason. Just my opinion anyways.
Adams skipped palm beach and played in quad cities
Ha, sorry, got distracted during the post so I put them backwards. Yes, he played in Quad Cities last year and skipped Palm Beach. Thanks for the correction.
FWIW, and I know I’ve been one of the Adams downers here, he really should be promoted pretty soon. Hamilton is old and seems a pretty fungible commodity. Whilst Holliday and Punto are out, I’d actually be tempted to just carry Hamilton as a bench bat (and possible emergency LF/1B) on the 25-man, and then if/when he needs to be demoted, do what you said and stick him in the OF most days (or perhaps in a platoon with Brown. Ideally, I’d like to see Luna retain most of his PT as I think he’s a more intriguing prospect than Brown).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adams get promoted to AAA after 250 ab’s at AA. The move would be made possible by moving Hamilton to LF. I have already mentioned this before but leaving him at AA after 250 ab’s would be absurd.
If they did that I think it’d be a sign the Cardinals are discouraged about signing Albert and need Adams as a 1b option as soon as next year. Otherwise I think his trade value will be more if he continues to put up huge stats in Springfield.
Adams has much more value to the club as 1B insurance for Pujols than as short-term trade bait.
If Pujols resigns, yes, that takes away some of Adams trade value. And with the injuries to this club, an offensive infielder would help. BUT if Pujols does not resign, then the team needs a backup plan.
There’ll be political pressure by the fans to get a big bat to replace Pujols if that happens. Berkman and Fielder are the only decent 1Bs out there. Berkman has been great but the season is not over. Fielder is going to cost a crud load of money. Probably somewhere around Texieria money, which might be where Pujols lands if he keeps struggling.
Given those are the only real “great 1Bs” on the FA market, the team would be wise to keep a big hitting 1B prospect in the farm as insurance. I personally would rather see the Cards use any money that would have been spent on Pujols on other pieces of the roster like a real SS, bench support, and on the bullpen. The fans may not like it for a possible lack of “star power” but what keeps the fans around is winning, not just Pujols.
I totally agree… I was looking at STL’s attendance this year and it is down 8%. So you know what that means. They will be cutting salary next year which inclines me to believe AP is gone. Lets remember baseball is not like the NBA and is a team sport. It takes more than 1 guy to make a team a winning team and if that one guy wants to put his large contract demands ahead of what is best for the team to remain a winner and field the best overall team possible then you have to let the player go some where else.
The fans come to see the club win. Not to see AP. When the product becomes stale some times a change is what is best and in AP’s case that may be what is best for the club and fans.
I wonder why attendance is down? Have prices gone up? Seems to me this is the most interesting team we’ve had in years.
Also, is that a month-for-month comparison? IIRC attendance is usually lower in the early months and picks up as the season goes on.
FWIW I’m happy to let Pujols go but my guy at 1B would be Berkman. I think he’s still a 3-4WAR 1B so spending 12m or so on a 1-year deal or something like 2/20 would be fine.
Also, whilst Adams slugging has been really impressive, I still think people are CONSISTENTLY disregarding just how easy an offensive environment Springfield is. He has a wOBA+ of 132. That’s nice, and verging on the very good, but for a defensively-challenged 1B that’s really kind of what you expect. We need to recognise that his hitting has been “very good” and not “incredible”, and that the offensive demands on his position are extremely high. I still think his ceiling is league average, which doesn’t make him a massive prospect. A 132 wRC+ 1B with -10 defense in the majors is about a 2 WAR player IIRC, and that’s assuming he can hit as well in the major leagues (comparative to league scoring environment) as he has in AA.
Sorry, mistake – his wRC+ is 164. Translated to the majors that would put him just outside the top 10 in baseball. Although it’s hard to find anyone with a vaguely similar offensive profile in that list. About the closest (high SLG, high BA, low BB%) is Hunter Pence who has a +139 wRC+, but he’s had a crazy high BABIP. Weridly, most of the other close comps in terms of hitting profile are middle-infield types (Rickie Weeks being one). A slower version of Weeks might be quite a decent comp, actually.
I spent the last couple days looking for a good, recent statistical comparison that met those criteria — couldn’t find anyone. It’s an odd set of skills.
Kevin Goldstein pointed out that Pablo Sandoval is a comparatively good match. He’s certainly the best match I’ve seen, and is both a reason for encouragement (if Panda gets his weight under control and gets back to his 2009 level) and a cautionary tale (you really don’t want Adams’ career to follow the path of Panda’s 2010).
Panda is a competent (some might actually say good) 3B, though. Quite a sizeable jump from that to a defensively-suspect 1B (probably somewhere between 10 and 20 runs in value, in fact). Sandoval survived a manky 2010 with the bat by providing some value with the glove. Adams won’t have that luxury.
That said, Panda seems to be doing better this year and, hitting-wise, as you say, seems a fair comp.
The attendance down 8% is thru 31 home games. While the rest of the league is down ruffly 1% across the board.
Regarding Adams,
The STL org needs to see him at Memphis.
Have they put prices up 8% or more, though? In which case it won’t change the club’s revenue at all. I wouldn’t know, haven’t seen a game at Busch in years.
Adam is doing outstanding! Yes, he needs to walk a little more but when you can hit why bother. Never got to see him in PB but will see him again tonite on milb tv. Castelanos I did watch him play in Springfield and he too hits well especially that he put big numbers in pitcher friendly PB. I’m sure they both should be called up.
Watching the Springfield game on the internet, Adams takes the first pitch he see’s and hits a laser off the centerfield wall barely missing a HR. Maybe the lack of BB is because he’s on such a tear right now. Also he doesn’ tlook as big as people are talking about. He seems to have slimmed down some and even advanced to 3b on a flyout to CF by Castlellanos.
Adam 2 hits in tonight’s game. Castellanos is killing the Hooks with amazing outfield catches! Outstanding OFer
2 hits and a WALK now. I thought he didn’t walk?
Heh. Adams has become about the most contentious prospect I can remember in the Cards’ system.
I think Adams is making a mockery of AA pitching. The arguments that he isn’t taking BB’s cannot be valid when the guy is hitting .348 with a .669 slugging percentage and a 1.050 OPS and only 22 years old.
Who would’ve thought a fellow from Slippery Rock, obtained in the 23rd round of the 2009 Major League Baseball draft, would be grist for so much pro and con discussion???? We’re already well into June, and he’s still providing DFR fodder. I haven’t followed the offensive numbers on a prospect like this since the summer Daryl Jones went to the Futures game. And now that I just said that I hope to hell I didn’t jinx him.
Joe Strauss is talking like Matt Carpenter might be coming to St Louis
DD hasn’t hit well but he’s been clutch and defensively good at 3b. Wonder why all of a sudden M Carp may get his shot?
Kozma has not been used really so he’s worthless. If you call up M Carp, then Descalso is available as another middle infielder.
I think you kinda said it – Descalso hasn’t really hit well enough for a full-time 3B. I’m as big a dirty dan fanboy as there is, but his bat has been a little disappointing. Hopefully he’s our full-time 2B next year, at least against RHP.
Adams goes 2 for 4, hitting a double, collecting 2 more RBIs, and also walked. I got to watch him a bit online today and he looked pretty good. Adams is not really “fat” but he could stand to lose a few lbs before next year.
Adams looked like he beat out a throw. No replay available with the AA feed but it looked pretty clear he beat it out. Still, gotta love that I am complaining about Adams and a 3rd hit. Just shows what he’s doing offensively.
Adams reclaimed the RBI lead (tied) for the Texas League. Tied for #1 in homers, #3 in BA, #3 in OPS, #5 in doubles.
On an interesting side note, as I looked through the Texas League stats, there’s a guy named Jermaine Mitchell who plays CF for the Midland Rockhounds who has 13…yes, 13 triples. 2nd highest is 5.
still dont understand the hatred for fick? he is posting solid numbers in the PCL, and reports have his fastball in the 90-92 range. and a 3.0 GO/AO
I don’t think there’s chuckie fick hate. He’s just not much of a relief prospect. He has huge swings, year to year, which is a product of throwing 25-50 innings per season per level. While he has the odd good season or partial season, like his last stint in AA, there’s nothing about his career in total that makes him look like a prospect.
He may have a 3 GO/AO rate, but he’s also got a 1.5 K/BB rate now.
Hyperventilating about Adams. He’s fine spending this year at AA. Matt can spend 2012 and 2013 at Memphis. He needs to gain experience from lots of minor league at bats.
Why? As far as prospects can, he looks pretty close to his full projection to me. Not convinced he’ll benefit more than anyone else from lots of additional seasoning. Although he needs to lose a few pounds and work on his fielding, admittedly.