With the MLB draft fast approaching, let’s take a look at two more prospects that have been recently mocked to the Cardinals at pick 22. This week’s prospects are two high school arms.
Daniel Norris, LHP, Science Hill HS (TN) – BA Rank: 16
Mocked from: Pro Draft Central
I have to say that Norris is probably my favorite prospect in the draft. Which means that there is no way he drops to the Cardinals, but his bonus demands are reportedly very high.
He’s a lefty with a quick arm who can run it up to 94 mph, sitting comfortably at 93 mph. That’s enough to garner plenty of interest. He’s also got a curve that’s a work in progess, but he knows how to spin it. He’s got a changeup, though he doesn’t use it much. At 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, the lefty has some room to grow and add strength, which could make him even more interesting as he matures.
Pros: Norris has been moving up boards all spring with impressive showings in front of considerable heat. He tends to sit in the low 90s but has touched 96, and scouts believe that will become a more common occurrence once his skinny 6-foot-2 frame fills out. His curveball has plus potential, and he already has feel for a changeup.
Cons: He has been up and down this spring with the occasional clunker of a night, but he has been at his best in front of good scouting crowds
Per the Red Baron over at Viva El Birdos:
Last year, Baseball America ranked Norris the top high school junior in the nation, and ranked only Jameson Taillon ahead of him among all high schoolers. I have to say, I think BA is right on the money with this one.
Norris has the potential for a dominating repertoire. He throws easily in the low 90s with his fastball, bumping 94 in showcases, and there might be a bit more velocity in there as he matures. (Or at least more consistent velocity; see my note above about my opinions on projectability.) Just as impressive as the velocity is the heavy sink and running action on his fastball which make it a serious weapon for Norris. His changeup gives him a second plus pitch with solid deception and decent movement already. That fastball/change combo has allowed Norris to overwhelm hitters at his own level and made him one of the more sought after commodities in the upcoming draft.
Here’s his MLB.com draft video: (no idea why he’s wearing A’s stuff)
Also, here’s another video from Baseball America.
Dillon Howard, RHP, Search HS (AR) – BA Rank: 31 – KLaw Rank: 18
Mocked from: 85 Percent Sports
Scouting Report from River Ave Blues:
A 6-foot-3, 200 lb. right-hander, Howard has pitched consistently at 91-94 with a fastball that runs in on righties, and he’s gotten it up as high as 96 in the past. He could legitimately sit in the mid-90′s once he’s done growing. Howard’s breaking ball is inconsistent, resembling a curveball on some days and a slider on others, but he’s certainly shown the ability to make the ball spin. His changeup is very much a work in progress, as is his overall command despite a sound delivery.
And here is Howard’s MLB.com draft video:
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Jonathan Mayo had us taking the 2B from Hawaii. Said he was a polished bat, or something to that effect. I will see if I can find a link.
I think that would pretty much be a wasted draft pick, and kind of a let down when compared to the previous two years.
He’s in the same boat as Levi Michael for me. Solid pick, but definitely not my best case scenario or even best realistic scenario. Would be nice to have a MI prospect in our system that will hit decently, but I’m not sure we need another MI prospect that doesn’t project more to be average or slightly above-average.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110602&content_id=19917766&vkey=draftcentral2011
Hope that gets you there.
Yes, that would be Kolten Wong, he’s pretty ‘zzzzzz’ as far as I can tell. Polished bat, already assigned to 2B, I don’t know if I would use a 1st rounder on him even if it was a cold guarantee he would become a MLB regular.
100% agreed. Like the kid but and in some drafts he would be a great pick at #22…but this draft class is special and it would be a shame to not go with one of the many extreme upside players that will be available when we pick.
Who are some guys in Mayo’s draft that would be good picks that would still be left?
More about Wong
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110524&content_id=19526788&vkey=draftcentral2011
Sorry to cross blogs with this meme, but if Norris falls to us and we take him, I will need a towel
By all counts Daniel Norris isn’t going any higher than the mid-teens so its not going to be a big surprise if he gets to us. But I also am a HUGE fan of his 4 pitch arsenal from the left side. To me he has the chance to be the best lefty in the class.
He’s easily the best prep lefty, but he’s a couple ticks below Danny Hultzen and probably a tick below Jed Bradley. I’ve got him as my third best left handed prospect this year.
I am not high on Hultzen like a lot of people are. I think he is good, just not Top 5 pick good. When I say he has a chance to be the best lefty in the class I am talking long term, not right now. He has a chance to have 4 above avg pitches and probably 2 of them have a really good chance to be plus.
Hultzen has a much better chance to win 100 games. Norris has a much better chance to win 200 games.
I like Norris quite a bit, and he’s rumored to want around 2.5 million to sign which is pretty reasonable. Comfortably sits in the low 90s for his fastball, change up has value both now and in the future, and he seems to be testing out a slider. But his curveball is what has me excited. With a 1-7 drop, it looks like it could be a plus-plus pitch in the future. I’ve heard some Clayton Kershaw comps, but that seems a bit optimistic.
Consider me surprised if he’s on the board when we pick, someone like the Red Sox or Angels would probably grab him before us.
Would love to infuse the farm with a top tier lefty pitching prospect. If Norris is still on he board, he is likely the best player available. We would be getting BPA and filling a big organizational need with one fell swoop.
Naturally, it’s becoming less and less likely that Archie Bradley is still on the board when the Cardinals pick. But I’m starting to narrow down my guys. Daniel Norris, Dillon Howard, and Jed Bradley. I’ve heard a couple of times now that Bradley seems to be falling down the board.
I think a miracle would have to happen for Bradley to get to us. If he did means he wants a BOATLOAD of money and teams decided to go in a different direction…which means we might go in a different direction as well.
Jed Bradley profiles as a 3, more than a top of the rotation guy. He probably won’t last to us, but if he did, it isn’t some crime. He’s not a star talent pitcher in my view.
I believe that’s who he was referring to (Jed) as falling down the boards moreso than Archie.
Best case scenario for me: First round: LHP Daniel Norris. 2nd round: OF Larry Greene.
Don’t think Greene will be there. Big time pop potential, and a relatively low price tag and I can’t see him getting out of the supplemental first. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Braves grabbed him at 28. They love their Georgia prepsters
I’m with you – Greene is a reach in the 1st Rd for sure but not really in the 1S Rd. Even if he makes it to 2nd Rd we are pretty far down the list in that Rd. But I would certainly be onboard with snagging him in the 2nd if he was there. The power is definitely legit.
That’s why I said “best case scenario”. lol
I’d think Atlanta would pop Dwight Smith Jr. before they would Larry Greene if they’re going the Georgia prep route.
Best case scenario for me is Norris and Brad Miller, SS from Clemson (ACC POY). I also really like prep lefty out of Ill. Charlie Tilson. Connor Barron is another guy I like, who has made late gains physically and improved in all areas. If our scouts feel he can stick at SS, he’d be a great pick in the 2nd round.
I think our history shows we’re goo high upside with our 1st pick, and then safe college player with our next pick.
I don’t see why starting pitching is a priority to draft high for this year. The team has an abundance of good starting pitching prospects and a huge dearth of bona fide middle infield prospects.
You don’t normally draft for “need” but when you have a situation like the Cards, I think you do.
Drafting for need gets you Pete Kozmo over Rick Porcello. You NEVER draft for need this isn’t the NFL or NBA draft where success of draftees is more guaranteed.
“The team has an abundance of good starting pitching prospects and a huge dearth of bona fide middle infield prospects.”
Coincidentally the same can be said about this draft.
As already stated you should never draft for need, especially in the 1st Rd. This draft is loaded with talent but most of the 1st Rd talent is pitching…and REALLY good pitching at that. No way you reach for a guy because you want a hitter. There will be plenty of attractive bats in the 2nd-4th Rds.
Just for fun though let me list a few bats that “might” be around with our #22 pick:
1) George Springer – He draft stock dropped a bit with early struggles but he rebounded so he will certainly be gone by our pick. But still a very outside chance.
2) Josh Bell – My favorite bat (outside of Rendon) in the whole class has a ceiling of going in the early to mid teens but the letter he sent to all MLB teams about wanting to go to Texas and not be drafted will scare teams off. Probably a negotiating ploy though. Decent chance he is there at #22 and I would not hesitate to draft him if you felt 1) he would sign for a certain $$$ and 2) His $$$ fit into your budget.
3) Javier Baez – Won’t stick at SS (probably 3B) but his bat is pretty special. I’m lukewarm with him at #22 especially if some of my favorite prep arms are still available (Norris, Guerrieri,Owens, A Bradley)
4) Cory Spangenberg – A solid bat without a definite position. If I knew he would play an avg corner OF or 3B I would say he would be very attractive because of his bat. But I just can’t say that.
5) Blake Swihart – Some peeps are in love with this kid, but I just like him. His bat has a chance to be really good and he will most likely stay behind the plate. But he is very athletic so he could play other positions if C didn’t work out. I am also hearing a big price tag on him.
Not sure anyone else would remotely excite me with our #22 pick. Obviously if somehow Lindor dropped to us (which is extremely unlikely he will even make it out of the Top 10) then that is a dream scenario. He will stay at SS and his bat will play extremely well at the position.
You should never draft for need. Because of the high failure rate of starting pitching we have to keep drafting top notice starting pitching. Especially this year when the pitching is great and the MI prospects are substandard. Why would you take a substandard MI prospect over a better SP prospect. That would probably be the worst thing we could do. The priority should be the best player available and thats most likely going to be a SP.
Agreed. At 22, there should be some high-level pitching prospects available. . .guys like Norris or Howard, who could be legit #1 or #2 starters someday. Unless a bat falls unexpectedly or a guy is suddenly deemed more signable – say a guy like Josh Bell – I think the smart money is on a SP. The prep arms should be strong when the Cards are on the clock.
If Norris is there at 22 and we dont take him I will be more than a bit disappointed.
Not taking Norris(or any nice first round pitcher) and taking a MI in his stead will lead to porcello-kozma all over again
I’d b happy with Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson or U Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer or high school RHP Jose Fernandez.
Not as high on Anderson but Meyer and Fernandez are on my “watch” list for our pick.
Apparently teams are pretty convinced that the Pirates are going to take UCLA righty, Gerrit Cole, first overall. And then odds are that the Mariners take a bat, most likely Anthony Rendon. Outside chance Francisco Lindor is the second pick, but still likely that Rendon is the pick.
Kevin Goldstein at BP is also making a (very preliminary) mock-draft prediction of Howard.
I did a mock yesterday, and I believe I projected Dillon Howard as well to our pick.
Not as high on Howard as some of the other HS pitchers in the draft class. Just think we will have better options.
Robert Stephenson or Jose Fernandez are much better picks in my view.
Than Howard.
I also have Norris, Owens and Guerrieri as better options. Guerrieri is the least likely to be there out of all the guys mentioned but his upside is extreme.
Well yeah, I said above Norris is my top choice for that pick. Next to no chance Guerrieri is there, so I didn’t include him. Despite the fact that Owens is committed to my beloved Canes, I just don’t really “love” him. I think he’s a projection guy on velocity, and there are guys with velocity and stuff NOW, that also have projection.
I’ve cooled on Owens since my first thought on him.
Completely disagree, Stephenson will be gone because he’s going to take slot for the Dodgers but Fernandez is already at his projection and I see him filling out like Jonathan Broxton. He screams closer. Which is good but not at 22 with all these other guys available.
What exactly are you disagreeing with?
I do tend to agree that Fernandez is at his projection physically, and probably is going to be a guy you have to worry about his conditioning. However, he also has the stuff NOW as opposed to a projection like a Owens. Fernandez is going to be expensive as well.
I also agree Stephenson will most likely be gone as well, but if we’re talking about who we like and don’t like, I’m going to talk about who I like and don’t like as much. Stephenson has been a guy I’ve really liked all along, and he could go anywhere from 15 to into the sandwich rounds. There will be surprise picks…there always are.
I was saying i like Howard more than Fernandez, Stephenson thats all.
Ok, that’s fair. It’s pretty much a pick your best out of a bag of similarly rated kids.
Posting a series of 2011 MLB Draft Previews (Cards) over at http://www.redbirddugout.com. So far I did a history and trends post and a preview of our 1st Rd pick. My next post will focus on our 2nd and 3rd Rd picks.
I just wrapped up my 3 Part series on the Cards draft. Part 3 focuses on potential targets in the 2nd and 3rd Rds. head over to redbirddugout.com and check it out. Can’t wait for tomorrow night!
Here is my most updated draft:
http://85percentsports.com/2011/06/06/2011-mlb-mock-draft-version-4-0-final-version/
Based off what I’ve read, the Cards are looking at a safe position player. I went with Wong for the fact that it’s a safe pick and a guy that could move quickly into a weak position. It’s not my favorite pick for them, but goes with what I’ve read and heard.