I’ll have a post up around 4:30pm CST with a coveritlive link where we’ll be chatting during the first round of the draft tonight. Tomorrow we’ll do a similar thing for the subsequent round. Reality is that tomorrow is much busier for the Cardinals (and subsequently for me) with there being about 20 rounds rather than 1.
Jeff and I will have full posts for each player in the first 10 rounds with the excerpts from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and anything else we can dig up on them. We’ll do combined recaps of rounds 11-20, 21-30, 31-40 and 41-50 that should be up the day after those rounds take place.
Feel free to use this thread for any pre-draft discussions. One question I’ll leave you with: Who is the one player you hope the Cardinals DO NOT draft tonight with their first round pick?
Entries (RSS)
Look forward to tonight, should be exciting.
As for the one player I don’t want, it’d probably be Alex Meyer of Kentucky. A max delivery pitcher with questionable control, he seems destined to head to the ‘pen sooner rather than later. Some feel that after this past season he could stay in the rotation, but I just don’t see it.
I think I am in the minority of people who wouldn’t mind seeing us take Meyer. I completely realize the concerns, but he has shown vast improvement on his control this year and has gotten overall good results in the SEC. I think it is probably moot though because I think that Luhnow wants someone more polished in the first round, and a lot of the H.S. arms are probably more polished than Meyer. I think he is the best chance for an ace outside the top 10 though, and he would be exciting to follow. One can dream on Randy Johnson pt. 2 with the reports of control problems, the height, and the devastating slider.
Cron from Utah, it seems likethere arent very many places in baseball with bat only players.
But what a bat. This just isn’t a polished hitter like Wallace, this is a polished bat with Power. I wouldn’t mind him depending on who was available. Power is hard to find and develop.
He does have an outstanding bat, but he’s basically Mark Hamilton, just in an historically thin offensive draft. I would pass on Cron, unless the team is convinced he’s going to be the next Ryan Howard. And even then I would probably pass; you can find bat guys later in the draft.
Except he is like a better hitting, more power Mark Hamilton.
I have two and both would be “position of need” picks. Kolten Wong and Levi Michael just scream “meh” to me. Wong has already been moved to second base and many think Michael is headed there. I would not mind having either in the system, and if we had a supplemental pick, or they fell to us in the 2nd, I’d be all for taking them. The first round is just two early for me, since I highly doubt either will be the best player on the board at 22. 42 maybe, but nOt 22
I just fell asleep thinking about Kolten Wong. Boring. Please no, Cardinals.
Agreed, but I think that will end up being the pick. He’s safe, probably a fast mover, and probably not expensive. I will say I’d be ok with it if they make a riskier second round pick; maybe a player that dropped due to signability or bonus demands.
Someone who hasnt really been linked to the Cardinals in this draft but I wouldnt want for sure is Stilson. Power arm that fits much better in relief than as a starter most likely. Would like to steer clear of that type of player early all together.
Stilson had a SLAP tear, we may not hear his name until the late rounds or not at all.
I’m all jazzed up ready for the draft tonight! I will name a few I hope we don’t draft…not necessarily because I don’t like them but because of the other talent that will be available with our pick.
Levi Michael, SS, NC – Not solid on him being an everyday solid SS in the bigs.
CJ Cron, Hitter, Utah – Yes he can hit as I stated by his position. But I’m not taking a 1B in the 1st.
Kolten Wong, 2B, Hawaii – I like him but don’t love him. Just a good 2B but don’t see much more upside
Alex Dickerson, OF, Indiana – He was out a predraft workout at Busch and this would be an overdraft
Larry Greene, OF, GA HS – Big power but a 2nd Rd talent…mention him as I did Dickerson just because he was at the predraft workout at Busch.
No one stands out on the pitching side that “could” be drafted with our pick unless its a guy that I would consider a big reach. Keep hearing we are all over the HS arms and most of the names I have heard I would be fine with.
That is my list as well. I wouldn’t be happy with any of those guys.
I’d agree 100% with your “no drafts” in the 1st round. Any of these 5 would be a disappointment, IMO.
Yeah, I agree with this list for the first round, along with Karmaloops’s suggest of avoiding Alex Meyer.
Wouldn’t mind Greene at pick 79, but I doubt he falls that far.
I would agree with all those guys, with the exception of Levi Michael. I understand why people would be down on that pick, but he’s one of those ‘gut-feeling’ guys for me. I don’t know why, exactly, but while I think a guy like Kolten Wong would be a real letdown, I actually really like Michael. Strange, I know. All the others, though, no thanks.
My just say no list is, Levi Michael, Kolten Wong, CJ Cron, Alex Meyer, Alex Dickerson, Larry Greene. Brian Goodwin, Tyler Anderson.
How about predictions on the Cards choice today?
Here’s mine: SS Francisco Lindor.
He’ll be LONG gone by the time we get to the 22nd pick. The best prep shortstop that can actually stay at short is going to be at a premium.
My pick: Henry Owens [LHP; Edison HS (California]
I agree. . .Lindor would be a shocker. But no one saw Miller or Cox available to the Cards either. I can also see George Springer slipping to 22 if he makes it by Oakland, which I doubt he will.
There’s always one guy that slides too far. . .I just hope that guy ends up being the Cards pick like Miller and Cox.
One problem with hoping for a big-time signability guy to slip is the presence of the Boston Red Sox ahead of the Cards this year. Boston and the Cardinals have become two of the teams most likely to go for those overslot players other teams let fall, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this year’s Zack Cox snatched up by the Sawx before we can get our sweaty paws on him.
Then we need two over slot bonus babies to slide. Not very likely but one can hope.
I wouldn’t put Lindor in the same boat as Miller/Cox. In the Miller draft, teams were highly emphasizing slot money if not close to it. Teams were willing to take lesser prospects if it meant saving some money. As for Cox, there were a wide range of his abilities, most notably his power. Add on that his bat wasn’t a true plus at third without some power and the bonus demands, and in hindsight it really isn’t surprising he fell.
Most people have Lindor going inside the top 10, so it would probably be a miracle (albeit a welcome one) if he falls to us. I just hope we take the BPA/someone who falls due to signability concerns and we pay them. Preferably Josh Bell, Tayor Guerrieri, Sonny Gray, Jed Bradley, George Springer.
Would be less than thrilled with another “best bat that can’t play anywhere” pick. But, if that is the best talent on the board…go for it.
Mainly I just want to say Thanks for all the info and coverage.
This seems to be a “high school arm in the first round” sort of draft, with several potential candidates available at the 22nd position. So I’d be o. k. with one of those. It wouldn’t be so enjoyable to see the Cardinal reach for a position player in the first round this year, since this year’s crop doesn’t seem so flush with them.
i would hate to see Cron, Wong, and Meyer. I would love to see us pick Daniel Norris.
and take a flier on Josh Bell if he falls much like Austin Wilson.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has us taking Norris in his most recent mock, fwiw.
OMG yes Daniel Norris
Nathan Hart if the P-D, whoever that is, says due to our low number of picks, we are gonna be less likely to take a risky player, and that We are leanin toward position player.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_2547aa52-3992-5b1a-bab7-a8aa5c40121e.html
I think Baez is our guy, unless one of the top HS arms falls to us
They took that entire interview with Lunhow completely out of proportion. He kept emphasizing value. Don’t look for them to draft raw players like Tyrell Jenkins, but the aren’t going to shy away from risky players all together.
I assume that must mean less likely to draft an Austin Wilson, NOT less likely to draft a Zack Cox. With fewer picks, Cardinals should be MORE willing to meet bonus demands, but less willing to draft and not sign someone.
It’s more of not drafting raw players that are four or five years away and have a very low floor.
That makes more sense, but still sounds funky to me. It’s not like they won’t have more picks next year, and/or be able to sign guys in the international amateur signing period.
Because the Cardinals system apart from the handful of prospects at the top, is still a pretty weak farm system. We really do need to get our early picks in and producing. If you had a farm system like the Royals, you could afford to take tough signs and not have your farm system feel it.
Like I said, staying away from risky signs I get. But there’s no reason to stay away from a high-risk high-reward guy just because we have fewer picks.
Firstly, I don’t feel the farm is that weak, but beside that is that you don’t improve a farm system by drafting low-upside guys. The farm just graduated a number of guys (Jay, Craig, Descalso, Sanchez, Salas, Jaime, Colby, Freese, Motte, etc.), with Lynn on the doorstep. The team isn’t in emergency need of more players.
Even if they were, they already have, arguably, their top two prospects at AA (Miller, Cox); nobody in the draft is going to go be able to instantly jump ahead of those guys. If anything, now may be a good time to draft some guys that are far away — but that’s not my point. My point is that they should draft the best guy out there; polished college hitter, or raw athletic high school pitcher.
BA’s final mock has Card’s taking Wong, they obviously haven’t been keeping up with 2nd base and the Cards over the last few years. I would be fine with Norris, but who knows who will be there? best player on the board is the way to go: if a position player is really close in the mix, take him. Our pitching has some depth now, could use same in the field. nothing new here, many have same idea’s. maybe Bundy will fall due to money…………… :) remember it was said Miller wanted 5 mil to sign, he did so for about half. the idea of Bundy wanting a big league deal is crazy, that I would not due, but a large bonus, no problem.
“…they obviously haven’t been keeping up with 2nd base and the Cards over the last few years.”
Not sure what this means. Are you saying they don’t realize we don’t draft 2B, or that they don’t realize we’re set at 2B?
I agree with what seems like the consensus in the comments: I would be disappointed in Wong or Michael. My fear (and what I assume is the unstated fear by other commenters) is that the Cardinals could reach for a player at a position of need (middle infield) and end up with a mediocre talent (like we did with Kozma).
I am hopeful that (because of our low number of picks as Volsn mentioned) the Cards will be willing to pony up the bucks for a high talent guy that drops due to signability concerns. I’d be excited for Josh Bell (even though he is probably limited to LF or 1B).
Seems like there’s enough depth in the first round for us to get someone who in other years might be a top 10-15 pick. I’d be shocked if we reach or settle for someone who doesn’t at least have the potential to be an impact player.
I have my eye on two wild cards: Josh Bell and Matt Purke. The worst that could happen with either at #22 is that we don’t get him signed and we get the #23 pick next year. But the upside is phenomenal. If Bell signs he could be a middle-of-the-order mainstay. If Purke signs, and if he’s healthy … well, can you imagine a healthy Purke in a rotation with Miller, Garcia, Wainwright, and Martinez?
Would love Josh Bell, but Matt Purke’s shoulder scares the bejesus out of me. If he’s healthy, the guy’s an absolute monster prospect, but I’m just not all that confident in his ability to stay in one piece.
I know “drafting for need” is what people say don’t do in the 1st round but I can name a bunch of pitchers in our system I am high on (Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, Swagerty, Gast, Additon, Lynn, Cleto, Siegrist for example) and players at 1B, 3B, OF, and even a catcher or two in our system I like (1B – Adams, 3B – Cox, M Carp, OF – Pham, Taveras, Brown, C – Hill, Anderson) or has been in the majors (Cruz for instance being serviceable in the majors) but no middle infielders. Our top middle infielders are Kozma, who did not deserve his call-up and may never deserve one from the way he is going and Ryan Jackson, who is batting .249 in AA.
Therefore, I say we need to draft in the 1st round in the middle infield. Time for the Cards to have a highly touted middle infield prospect. This is, unless the Cards take a Josh Bell-type. I could not fault the Cards for taking a player with that kind of ceiling if they did not like the MI prospects in the 1st round, though I would fault the team if the Cards did not in the 2nd round take the best MI draft prospect available since there is such a pressing need.
Unfortunately, it was this exact line of thinking that caused us to end up with Kozma in the first place.
Kozma was a conservative reach pick due to money. That’s not what I am advocating. Wong for instance is on John Sickels’ 2011 draft board at #22. Baez is #20. Michael is #33 on his list so it could possibly be a reach pick but not a huge reach.
Kozma was #39 in Sickels mock draft. Cards took him at #19. That’s 20 picks too high, an entire round higher than most expected.
Completely different situations. I’m advocating taking a highly touted MI prospect. Not going conservative. And if there is a Josh Bell, I already said that may be too good to pass up but then you have to really hope the Cards have done their homework on MI prospects in later rounds because this team is in dire need of some bona fide MI prospects.
Sickels is one guy. BA had Kozma higher. In their final mock draft of 2007, they projected that Koz would go to the Reds at #15, and called him the best all-around middle infielder in the draft.
So instead of calling Kozma a reach at #17, the BA mock suggests he actually “fell” to the Cards.
Sorry, I meant to say he fell to us at #18.
I’ve been looking for BA’s final top 200 list before the ’07 draft. I don’t recall offhand where he ended up on that list, but I remember that he was rising fast right before the draft. BA said he would stick at shortstop and that he projected as a future #2 hitter.
If they had been right about his hit tool, he would’ve been a great pick at #18.
BA also consistently is terrible in ranking our farm system. Constantly rating our minor league system as one of the worst despite how great this team it is with producing major league players. I’m not saying Sickels’ is the only guy out there and I don’t know his complete track record with picks that well, but I’d put more stock in his respected reputation than what I know about BA.
Throwing out another name, Kevin Goldstein of SI did not have Kozma in the 1st round either. Like I said, I don’t trust BA. Kozma’s pick was pretty well perceived as a reach pick from all the information I have read then and now.
As a side note, I do not know any teams that have had rookies, just this year alone, who have had more of an impact at the major league level like the Cards have. Salas I think is still technically a rookie and he has been a good closer. Sanchez has shown good 9th inning stuff. Descalso has played like a major leaguer and has come up with some huge clutch hits. And Craig is tearing it up in his rookie season.
What great talent has our system actually produced? Rasmus, but everyone was hign on him.
Are you serious? Ok…let’s just go back to last year then. Um…Jon Jay and Jaime Garcia?!! Jay hit .300 over nearly 300 ABs and Garcia was the best rookie pitcher in the MLB. David Freese was the Cards starting 3B and played very well for 300 ABs before he got hurt. Salas is still technically a rookie I believe but he pitched well last year for the team too. I don’t know any other team that can boast that kind of contribution.
This year:
Craig (I still believe is a rookie) – .304/.408/.528/.936 with 23 RBIs in 106 ABs
Salas – 3-0, 1.69 ERA, 10 of 11 in save chances
Sanchez – 2-1, 2.10 ERA, 5 for 7 in save chances
Descalso doesn’t have great stats but we know he has played solid defense and has been very clutch.
Production from the minors isn’t about just long-term amazing talent. That’s where a lot of analysts go wrong. It’s about contribution to the team. Cards get that, plus I would say some of these guys are very, very talented.
So which tools has Jon Jay really surprised us with? We knew he was going to hit for a high average, and play decent defense. Most people projected him as a fringe starting corner OF. You generally look for your corner OF to have a bit more pop in their bat.
As for Jaime Garcia, I already went over. He was coming off TJ surgery, and he really is a bit different pitcher than he was pre-injury. He was more of a strikeout pitcher and now he mixes up speed and location to get hitters out.
And most people realized the Cardinals had a couple of nice right handed relief pitchers coming up relatively soon. But how many in BA top 100 were relief pitchers? It’s just not a real valued position.
The problem is that before Miller and Martinez, we didn’t have any front of the rotation starters. And we don’t have any middle of the order bats either.
I’ll admit that Jay wasn’t that highly touted but I think even based on talent that the farm system was better than BA and others rated it. Just looking at 2010, Freese looked for real. Garcia looked real to me back in 2008 and he was coming back. The team had good relief pitching. I think that’s enough right there to put you in the middle levels of farm systems at the least.
This year, Craig was a bat most fans looked forward to seeing because we thought he could hit. The pitching depth, even though not MLB ready, is pretty deep in my opinion. Salas and Sanchez were coming up (Salas already having MLB experience). I thought Descalso put up minor league numbers that showed he was a legit prospect as well.
I don’t know many teams that consistently get production from their minor league system like the Cards do. Rasmus in 2009, Freese and Garcia in 2010, and now Salas, Sanchez, and Craig in 2011 look long-termers with high ceilings. This is not even including the other contributions. It’d be nice if the experts recognized previous contributions and give the benefit of the doubt. When you consistently underrate and get proven to be fools, then you would think they would learn.
The question was “what great talent has our system actually produced?” and he named them. I think it might be a bit of a fluke, but it’s hard to argue that our player development hasn’t been exceptional in the last few years. Despite always picking at the tail end of the draft and trading away more prospects than we’ve collected in trade, we’ve basically graduated half a roster’s worth of average and better MLB talent in the last 3 years.
Two stars – Garcia and Rasmus.
Two probably above-average position players – Craig and Freese (who was admittedly a trade acquisition)
Three guys who I think are going to be average MLB starters – Jay, Carpenter, Descalso.
A mostly home-grown bullpen that’ll be at least average with a couple of decent lefties added through FA – Salas, Sanchez, Motte, Boggs.
A nice group of role players who won’t look out of place on a 25-man roster – McClellan, Greene, Lynn, Cruz.
Outside of the likes of Tampa Bay (who had a bunch of top-10 picks for about 6 or 7 years) it’s hard to think of an MLB team that has produced quite so much impact talent in recent years. You could probably make a league-average MLB ballclub comprising merely guys who graduated our farm system plus maybe $30m or so of sensible free agents (mostly to fill in the rotation, bullpen and catcher), even if you don’t include older graduates like Albert and Yadi.
You act like our farm system stacks up well against any other franchises. We’ve got a couple of good prospects (Miller, Martinez, and Cox), and a couple of interesting players (Adams, Taveras, and Jenkins). Outside of that, we’ve got some right handed relief options, a couple of #5 starters, and that’s about it. Our farm system has as much depth as it has had in recent memory, we lack any kind of impact prospects outside of our top 3 right now.
The problem is that outside of Colby Rasmus and Yadier Molina, what homegrown talent have the Cardinals kept that found success. Jaime Garcia was a serious question mark considering that he was coming off TJ surgery. Not to mention that you want to look at everything in hindsight. There weren’t many people who thought Dan Haren was going to turn out like he did. How many GMs do you think would have said that Fernando Salas would be 10/11 in saves and solidifying the closer position? Stop looking at everything in hindsight.
I’m not looking at hindsight. I was very high on Eduardo Sanchez and Fernando Salas because I saw their stats and actually saw Salas producing at the major league level. I’ve seen Descalso as a major league producer, at least in the short-term, because again, his stats and scouting reports indicate as such. I really don’t think it took brain surgeons to see Craig as a good hitter either.
Miller and Martinez are our top pitching prospects but they are far from the only successful pitchers we have. Rosenthal was remarked by the QC manager as possibly better this year than Miller was last year (the guy who managed Miller last year). Swagerty has looked really good this year, progressing to A+ ball and has been quite successful there. Gast has pitched very well in this system. Additon is at AAA and he’s looking like he belongs as a legitimate prospect. There are others but I won’t type about all of them. The point is, we have some real legitimate starting pitching out there.
Adams is my top position prospect. Cox is a close 2nd. Taveras I really like but he hasn’t generated enough ABs in the A ball or higher in the minors yet to qualify for my own personal rankings. I value minor league experience and until you produce that data, I can’t consider that player a prospect of note yet. Sorry, the way I operate.
Brown and M Carp have serious bats. Brown’s defense is a concern but what gets you to the majors is your bat. He may be a 1B, which would make him trade bait but until I can see the definitive proof, his bat is something to think about. M Carp is in the majors now, we’ll see what he does with his cup of coffee.
Also, Garcia was not a hindsight thing. I said Garcia would be the best rookie pitcher before the year started. And given BA’s and others continuous underrating, you would think they would start giving the Cards the benefit of the doubt. It’s about time I would think.
“The problem is that outside of Colby Rasmus and Yadier Molina, what homegrown talent have the Cardinals kept that found success.”
“Stop looking at everything in hindsight.”
How can you answer that question without looking in hindsight? Surely you’re therefore asking “What homegrown talent have we had on the farm in the last few years that’s PROJECTED as impact talent”. Maybe not much, but the guys who’ve graduated have nearly all found a decent level of success.
Also – how many ball clubs have more than 3 or 4 players in the top 100 prospects in baseball? With the exception of the RedSox (who spend a ton on drafts and talent), and a group of teams who’re always picking in the top 10 because they’ve sucked at MLB level (KC, Rays etc), not too many. The default, or average, farm system has 3 top 100 talents (which is what we have, you could argue 4 depending on your view of Taveras) and maybe another 4 or 5 guys who’re quite likely to be starting major leaguers. That’s pretty much what we’ve got.
Not bad when we’re always drafting after pick 15 (and usually the mid-to-late 20s), and have traded away more talent (Wallace, Gregerson, Perez) than we’ve gained through trade (Freese and Cleto are the only ones I can recall).
There seems to be some confusion at times when mock drafts are posted. Be sure to look and see if it is a mock based on talent or on where they think those players will go. Pete Kozma went in the mid-teens but most of the talent rankings had him outside the top 30.
Indeed. Most of the stuff I can find from back then had Kozma both in mock drafts outside of the 1st round and definitely had him outside of their top 30-35 talents in the draft.
Kozma was the #1 ranked HS SS. I wouldn’t call him a reach at all.
Being younger and coming from HS does not mean much to me in terms of talent. I was noting that draft “experts” had Kozma in their mock drafts and draft talent boards outside of the top 30.
Based on that, Kozma was a reach. I remember that most of the fan outrage was about passing up Porcello but there was almost an equal outrage about Kozma because it was viewed as so conservative and reach.
It was definitely a reach. Only logical reason anyone could come up with was that the Cards felt the Jays were going to take him before their next pick, and they REALLY wanted him.
At the time, everyone agreed he had no standout skills, and that the best attribute was being solid across the board in a Jack Wilson-esque fashion. That’s great if it all pans out, but if it doesn’t, you’re projected to be left with Jack Wilson-lite.
Of all those guys, how many will truely make it to the Majors? The reason you don’t draft for need is because of the time it takes for these kids to make it to the Majors. It’s not like the NBA or NFL where they go directly into an impact role.
Why go for a Wong when he’s the best MI prospect when you could get a Norris, Bell, or some other potential top line talent?
It’s simple, you have to stock the system with position players respectively by draft, unless you sign or trade for a prospect. You can switch positions around somewhat, but you very rarely see a 3B, 1B, or OF switched to the middle infield.
Given that, the Cards would need to draft for a MI prospect. The higher, presumably the higher talent that prospect is starting out with and hopefully a reasonably foreseeable high ceiling. So if you have a pressing need in the system, one that has actually been around for YEARS, then selecting a MI prospect high is the best way to address this.
Every team drafts for need in some way. If you have an incumbent 1B in the majors and good 1B prospects, you aren’t going to draft a 1B. The team is already hurting from lack of bona fide major league MI prospects (see Kozma and Greene call-ups). It’s hard to accurately draft those but the way I see it, it’s going to keep being a leaking problem until it is plugged. Even harder to do that in the later rounds.
Luhnow recently said that they primarly are looking for MI talent in Latin America. We won’t find a big time MI talent unless we draft Top 5 or 10 yearly because bottom of the 1st round MI rarely do anything. Better chance finding a MI in the 2nd -4th round as they often end up better than the bottom 1st rounders.
Link? Can’t agree with your assertion on drafting either. MLB draft is harder than other drafts because talent is not automatically major league ready unfortunately. But the general rule, until I have hard statistical data to prove otherwise, is the higher the pick (assuming the pick was generally accepted as warranting that high a pick), the better chance that player will make the majors.
If the team was willing to shell out money in Latin American for MI talent instead of drafting for it, then that would be ok with me given their previous success with scouting there. But I have not heard this yet.
Go to Cardinal Nation get a membership and listen to the 35 minute interview with Luhnow from a week or so ago.
I agree if we ever get the first 5 picks maybe we should draft a stud SS like Troy Tulowizki. But teams that draft in the 20′s every year don’t get the opportunity at great MI’s. In a year with so much good pitching depth drafting a MI would be beyond stupid. Do you know who Kolten Wong’s skill set reminds me of….. SKip Shumaker.
Hey now, let’s keep this civil. Don’t need to be calling my thoughts “stupid.”
I’ve already agreed that if there is a high talented hitter or pitcher that is too good to pass up, then the Cards could legitimately select them. I am just saying if all things are equal or close to equal, going the MI route takes care of the most pressing need in the Cards system. Something that likely cannot be addressed without drafting for it.
Here’s an article by Jim Bowden who agrees, and supports with decent historical data, that position players in the first round have a better track record than pitchers: http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/222/top-of-the-draft-philosophy-take-the-hitter
The point the pitchers that will be available to us at 22 aren’t comparable to the MI that will be around. Thats what I’ve been saying the whole time. There is no situation were will be an all else being equal argument. Sure Wong and Michael may make it to the bigs but they will probably only be average 2b. Why would you rather have a guaranteed average MI than a possible real special pitcher.
Outside of Francisco Lindor, there isn’t a single first round worthy MI. I’m not looking to grab a second or third round value player just because he plays a certain position. If you’ve got a guy you’ve got rated as a top 15 prospect, and comparing to a player of need that’s at best supplemental first value, you take the top 15 talent.
If it was Lindor,yes, but not for Wong
JB there are no highly touted MI prospects this year at least not at 22. Arms are better than normal this year and MI is worse than normal this year….why would you stretch on a worse than normal crop of MI than get another top notch arm. That way if we have a surplus we can trade one for a MI sometime in the future.
You did not reply to me but it seems you have addressed a post to me. Our pitching depth is pretty good. As I mentioned, we have Miller and Martinez which are ranked in the top 50 prospects by some experts. Add to that the list of very successful minor league names such as Lynn, Gast, Rosenthal, Swagerty, Cleto, Additon, and Siegrist (among others) and that’s good depth. Never hurts to add an arm but unless a pitcher blows the Cards away, I think they have other things they need to address first.
Even though you mention the arms are “better than normal this year,” Sickels still has 5 middle infielders in his top 33 picks. Now, I already mentioned before that if the Cards are not high on the MI prospects available in the 1st round and there is a pitcher or OF that blows them away, then I think it’s justified. But the Cards have an obvious hole in the minors and I don’t see how it’s going to get plugged unless they draft a highly touted prospect at some point, unless they get lucky.
Top 33 as on his draft talent board and mock draft.
I check this site multiple times each day but do not post. But, I feel compelled today. I started my draft homework by checking the Cape for standouts. One guy screamed Cardinals: Kolten Wong. I kept up on him and was sure he had to be high on their boards months ago.
Recap of Cape Numbers: .314/3 HR/11 RBI, 46 H, 6 2B, 18 BB, 12 K and 22 SB
He kept up the batters eye and speed in college.
Recap of College Numbers: .378/7 HR/53 RBI 79 H, 11 2B, 3 3B, 42 BB, 20 K 23 of 30 SB, .492 OBP, .560 SLUG
I understand not being blown away by him, but he has a strong Cape track record, signable, onbase ability, speed, some gap power and walks more than he strikes out. Plus he will not be let down being switched to second much like a SS would be. Luhnow said he wants big leaguers. the Cards have needed a leadoff for years (Theriot has done well so far) and it will need to be a middle infielder due to contracts and ability. I am fine with the hypothetical Wong pick going forward. Plus he has a great name which is half the battle.
And I asked this question in a BA Draft chat about Wong on May 25th just to clarify for myself:
Tom (St. Louis): Does Kolten Wong profile as a leadoff hitter? If not are there any middle infielders in the top few rounds who are better suited to lead off? Thanks.
Jim Callis: Sure. He has good hitting and on-base skills to go with solid speed. There may be faster players, but I’ll take his on-base ability.
Tom, good points. BA currently has Wong #27 on its top 200, and Frankie Piliere has him #30.
And yet, some of the mocks I’ve seen have him going higher than that. Jim Callis has him going #22 to the Cards, even though Piliere, Kevin Goldstein and others see strong signs that the Cards are looking for the best HS arm to drop to them.
We’ll know in about 2 1/2 hours!
All good points, but I just can’t see drafting a 2B in the first round unless you think he is going to be a HOFer. Plenty of SS prospects who can move to 2B will be available later.
Why take solid when they are potential stars available? Any of the prep arms we are on could end up being 1′s or 2′s. If we have too much pitching we can easily trade that for a most established MI. Wong is just way too much like settling even if he’s guaranteed to be a MLB player.
“If we have too much pitching we can easily trade that for a most established MI.”
I disagree that it is “easy” and very speculative. That’s a lot of assumptions there. Assuming the pitcher develops. Assuming the pitcher develops with a high ceiling. Assuming there is a MI player in the future that is obtainable. Assuming that club has a need for pitching. Assuming that specific club values the pitcher the Cards choose. Highly speculative.
On a general level, good MI talent at the major league level is very hard to acquire. Good, consistent bats at the major league level is actually quite rare. Probably the most coveted thing next to front of the line starting pitching actually. So I would not say it is “easy” to acquire. Far from it.
Good MI talent is less important than pitching talent……case in point this years team. Our MI is horrible and we have the most wins in baseball. Why, because we have great pitching. I really think your overvaluing Wong and Michael. They just aren’t that good.
I don’t know if you noticed but our pitching was very good last year yet we failed to make the playoffs because of a lack of offense. What’s the biggest change this year? Yes, the back end of our rotation is much better but the offense has radically changed. It is an excellent lineup, instead of losing to mediocre pitchers or going 1 for a million with RISP.
That is in part due to a major offensive upgrade in the MI. Theriot has definitely outhit Ryan from last year thus far. Craig and Descalso have gotten a few starts at 2B and have added a good deal of offense to the team. 3B production is not the best because Freese is hurt again (though this time not due to any ankle related injury) but players like Felipe Lopez are not manning the hot corner.
Not having black holes in the lineup is huge. The 2010 Cardinals can attest to that fact. What you have up the middle bat wise can set you apart from other teams. Right now the Cards have a .300+ SS and possibly another .300+ in Craig. I would not count that out at all.
Fact is your just overvaluing the 2 possible MI prospects available at 22. You may like Baez but he’s moving to 3b so his bat will be a lot more questionable at 3b. I’m assuming you want to draft Wong or Levi Michael right?
I want someone highly rated on most boards. Lindor would be ideal given what I have heard but I would take Baez. It’s all speculation he has to move to 3B. Unless the Cards do not think they can make it work, I’d rather take him and give him a shot at SS or 2B.
Not sure how I feel about Wong. Some say he’s undersized. Some say he has a real nice stroke and could put up 10 homers. Not sure what to make of him.
I don’t know much about Levi Michael but I know he’s another high guy on the board. I like some of the things I’m reading, especially that he’s a switch hitter. They say he has some pop in his bat, which is kind of a necessity if you’re going to draft a MI prospect in the 1st round.
It’s almost unanimous that he won’t stick at SS. Cards may think otherwise but most draft guys and scouts have said that he’s moving to 3b and thus less valuable.
Just further evidence of my earlier (above) post, do a fantasy draft with your friends. You’ll see SS and 2B talent gobbled up in the first few rounds. That’s how rare it is.
Fantasy baseball and real baseball is different.
Duh. My point is that the fantasy baseball can be good circumstantial evidence of showing you how rare offensively talented MI players are. If you don’t draft them high in a fantasy draft, you won’t have good fantasy numbers most likely from your MI players.
Since that is the case, in the real world, it shows that there are only a few teams that have this kind of talent (if there was an abundance in the real world, then you would not see such a dropoff from early round MI fantasy numbers to even mid-round MI fantasy numbers). The point being, these teams are very likely to keep their MI talent because it is so valuable and not “easy” to obtain. Even with elite pitching prospects.
And I’m saying the type of player your talking about is usually taken in the Top 10. We don’t have a Top 10 pick. Because MI are valued so much if they were great talents they would be taken in the Top 10.
Fair points. We’ll see who is available at #22.
Yup I’m hoping Wong and Michael there so we won’t be tempted by them. Rumors that both are signing pre draft deals for slot for teams before us.
I realize this draft is full of very impressive prep/college arms. But starting prep arms in the first round are the single most combustible commodity in the game. If you look back at prep arms taken under the Luhnow regime until Shelby countless arms have been taken but few 1′s or 2′s. roughly one “Top” arm a year. Maybe with this year’s pitching stacked first few rounds things will change. The best HS arms in the first round since ‘05
’05 Volstad
’06 Kershaw, Drabek
’07 Porcello
’08 Lyles, Montgomery, Odorizzi
’09 Shelby, Wheeler, Turner, Purke
Of all these guys I’m taking Shelby.
I’d definitely take Kershaw before Shelby, and that’s nothing against Shelby.
I’m with you on that. I think Shelby will be one hell of a pitcher but Kershaw is already an ace in the majors at 23…
Kozma was not a need pick. You seldom pick HS players for need as they are too far away.
My problem with Kozma was that my research showed the last HS shortstop taken in the 1st round outside of the top 10 was Royce Clayton 20 years earlier (at least that stuck at SS).
Purke would seem to meet Luhnow’s definition of a risky pick between his signability and his shoulder.
Craig is technically no longer a rookie. He exceeds the major league roster time requirement (by a couple of days).
BTB has us taking Norris!!!
Anyone else notice that STL org & TLR jerk the kids around several years so that by the time they can actually start getting regular playing time they are 27 or 28 years old. Which means that the team would have total control of them until they were 33 or 34 years old.
No
Maybe you should check the ages of Craig, Greene, Jay, Boggs, Motte, Freese, etc. etc… Thanks for the reply though Kicd…
Craig was NCAA guy almost 22 when drafted and still doesn’t have a true position. Greene NCAA player and has been terrible in the minors until recently once he had a good minor league year he got a shot. Jay was NCAA and misses time with injury. Boggs was NCAA guy, Motte was a NCAA guy and failed catcher and Fresse was 25 when we got him and not even in Double-A.
Any other wrong information you need to corrected on?
JD Drew and Anthony Reyes would be better examples here.