Kolten Wong
Junior, University of Hawaii
Height: 5′ 9″
Weight: 190lbs.
DOB: 10/10/1990
Bats: L
Throws: R
AZ’s Snap Take: This is a pick that most Cardinals’ fans are going to deride and compare with Pete Kozma’s 2007 selection. The comparison falls short in that Wong is a more advanced college bat and requires less projection. That said, there isn’t much to project. He hit in the Cape Cod League, which is heavily scouted by the Cardinals. He’s drawn comparisons to Carlos Baerga but the Cardinals are probably hoping for something closer to Dustin Pedroia. Expect Wong to draw comparisons to every undersized infielder in the history of the game.
It’s a pick that tends toward the safe side but it’s not as bad as Pete Kozma. Personally, I don’t think Wong was the best player still on the board. That said, I think his swing is quiet and efficient with good loading mechanics — it is a fundamentally sound swing. I’d rather see him center his weight more while waiting but once the swing starts, everything moves to the right places in the right ways. He should hit and if his fielding is up to par at second, he could be a solid regular in the majors in 2-3 years.
At 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, Wong will likely be the smallest first rounder this year. What he lacks in size, he makes up for in tools, with his hitting ability standing out the most. With a compact lefthanded swing and good bat sped, Wong profiles as an above-average hitter who will spray line drives from foul pole to foul pole. He hadn’t been pitched to much this year but hasn’t gotten anxious or expanded the zone. He has a professional approach at the plate and a good understanding of the strike zone. He has surprising pop for his size and should hit 10-15 home runs a year as a pro. He’s also willing to do the little things—he can bunt for a base hit and hit-and-run with the best of them. Wong has average speed and good instincts and is fearless on the basepaths. He’s just as versatile defensively as he is with the bat. He profiles best at second base but could become a Chone Figgins type who moves around the field. He played center field as a freshman and has also started games at catcher and shortstop.
There aren’t that many pure college bats in this year’s Draft class, but Wong has one of them. He gets overlooked because of his size, his position and the fact he plays in Hawaii. But, drawing comparisons to Carlos Baerga, Wong can really hit. He’s got a professional approach at the plate, with a little power, and is the kind of hitter who should not take a long time to get to the big leagues. He’s an above-average runner, and while he may not be a Gold Glover, he’s a solid defender at second base. There tends to be a knock against guys who enter the Draft already at second, but Wong is a much better all-around player than perhaps he gets credit for. Even if he’s underappreciated, he’s still going to come off the board at some point in the first round.
ESPN:
Wong is a one-tool player, but fortunately for him, it’s the tool that matters most, the ability to hit, something he’s done well over the last year between the Cape and his junior spring.
He has very good hand-eye coordination and lets the ball travel deep on him, loading his hands well behind his shoulder and producing line-drive contact without much loft in his swing. He’s a below-average runner who can stay at second base but isn’t likely to be more than average there; you could see him move behind the plate at some point, as he has the body for it but not the plus arm most converts to catcher have. He was completely overmatched as an underclassman trying out for Team USA in 2009, and declined the chance to try out in 2010, perhaps fearing a repeat performance.
Because he has hit so well in school and on the Cape last year, Wong will probably go off the board in the top two rounds, but his upside is limited compared to some of the toolsier options on the board.
Pros: He just drives opponents nuts with his ability to reach base and then cause trouble with his baserunning ability. He works the count exceptionally well and laces line drives all over the park when he gets his pitch. Think of him as Wally Backman with more gap power and no platoon issues. Excellent performances in the Cape Cod League leave scouts confident his abilities will translate.
Cons: He’s just 5-foot-9, so there isn’t much to project, and he’s merely an adequate defender. Second basemen are always a risk because they either project as big-league starters or they aren’t prospects.
University of Hawaii Player Bio
Tons of awesome writeups dating back to 2007 on Wong from Perfect Game USA:
Pound for pound, there may not be a better prospect in the 2011 draft class than the 5-foot-9, 190-pound Wong. He has well-rounded skills and may have solidified his status as a potential first-rounder last summer by passing up an offer to return to Team USA’s college national team for a second season. He elected instead to play in the Cape Cod League, where he earned league MVP honors for a .341-3-11 season along with a league-best 22 stolen bases. Wong showcased polished offensive skills with a sound approach from the left side of the plate, and surprising pop for a player his size. He drove the ball hard consistently. He also became an accomplished base stealer. Moreover, he found a home defensively at second base after being destined for a utility role with Team USA. If nothing else last summer, he proved to the scouting community that he is a quality everyday second baseman for the purposes of professional baseball. [...] But it wasn’t until last summer, playing against superior competition on the Cape, that Wong’s game truly came together. He became a top-of-the-order catalyst, capable of making things happen offensively with his scrappy approach. More than just a tough out, he showed a very professional, well-rounded approach to hitting. He had surprising pop in his small, but powerful frame. He was adept at using the whole field, and equally proficient at playing small ball and dropping down a bunt as going deep. Though not blessed with blazing speed, Wong is aggressive on the bases and has excellent base-running instincts. [...]
In a draft where multi-tool position players are hard to come by, Kolten Wong is a rarity – a left-handed hitting second baseman with plus offensive potential. Don’t let the body fool you. The former high school running back has a low center of gravity and is powerfully built through the shoulders, hips and thighs. But that doesn’t make him stiff. Wong has a very live body, which he shows if you keep your eyes open.
[...]
Overall, this is a guy who is going to be fairly close to the big leagues after he signs. He needs to play every day, and in my experience, that’s the real difference maker for future major league starting position players.
Baseball Beginnings Q&A with Wong
Video: Cape Cod League Interview (1:11 mark)
Video: Kolten Wong at the plate
Entries (RSS)
Keep up the Dustin Pedroia comps, it’s the only thing i can get excited about this pick.
I don’t think he’s gonna be Kozma. He’s just sooooooooooooo boring with so much talent on the board.
Suspected this was the pick after Jonathan Mayo’s mock the other day and then seeing Luhnow’s comment that with so few picks this year he had to be a little safer.
Who are guys you wanted ahead of Wong?
Meyer, Norris, Guerreri
Bell, though the way he’s falling it seems like he won’t sign.
well he basically asked not to be drafted.
Yea, but that happens every year, and more than a few still sign. It’s not an uncommon bargaining tactic. Bell could well be serious though. Also, his agent is Boras, so he could well be just seeking cash.
Tim Melville did the same thing…then signed
just saying, it’s not like they’re aren’t options who are cheaper with just as much upside.
Norris, Guerrerri, Swihart, Ross, Mahtook, Howard, Meyer, Stephenson (in no particular order) just to name a few.
Wally Backman w/ more gap power? Ugh!
that physically sickens me
Please tell me this is an April fools joke or something…. a 5-10 190 guy at number 22….. What a waist of a pick… Looks like the org went all in this year with this pick… just depends on what you mean by all in…
“Wong will likely be the smallest first rounder this year”
or which end their going all in in…. what idiots… and they are actually paid for doing this… this is their job and this is the best they can do… I’ll put 100% odds on it that a lower signing bonus has something to do with this pick… urrrrr…
Ugh. Oh well. He fills a position of need, and I can see him being the regular 2B in St. L by 2013. Not an exciting pick but a prudent one, I imagine. Our middle infield (majors on down) absolutely sucks.
why on god’s green earth would they draft a second basemen?
can’t pretty much “anyone” play second?
when was the last time someone traded for a second baseman?
its just not a critical commodity
Dan Uggla, this most recent offseason, off the top of my head.
I would trade for Dan Uggla also!!!
Boring pick without question but I would personally like to welcome Kolton to the Cardinals organization. Best of luck, young man.
I hope he signs quick and starts hitting right away; otherwise I’ll just be thinking about Norris and Guerreri and Mahtook.
He should help on the field but not in the Prospect rankings.
We have day two to look forward to. Maybe a Purke or L. Greene or someone will be available to us.
Sorry but Mr. Greene is already gone @ #39… not a chance now…
Not a fan of this pick, but not surprising either. Should sign rather quickly, and won’t cost much either. Should move through the farm system pretty quickly. I’d say he could be ready mid-2013 if not earlier. When/If he signs, probably ends up going to Quad Cities. Possibly Palm Beach if they’re wanting to push him.
He seems to me like a Jon Jay, but a 2B instead of an OF.
I don’t hate this comparison.
Exactly. We could have done a lot worse.
Not at 22, who realistically would have been worse?
At 22, I personally think Purke would have been worse. So would Greene. There’s plenty of players that would have been worse picks at 22. I can vision us drafting a player like Bell or Purke in round 2.
Disagree Greene actually has the talent to have a big impact with his power, while Purke if healthy is a top pitcher. Wong is just a guy at the least important position in baseball IMO. He’s got a hit tool and thats it. He’s a baseball rat you usually don’t take baseball rats with stud pitchers available, you take baseball rats in the 2-4th rounds. We could have got Christian Lopes or Phillip Evans at 79 if we wanted 2b depth.
Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Frankie Frisch, Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg and Robinon Cano say hello.
Just saying some important players have been second basemen.
Was Ryno a 1st round pick?
Utley is the one I can think of.
Utley would have been a great pick but he also hit about 25 homeruns in college and dominated the Pac 10. Utley is a bad subject with me as we took at 2nd baseman instead of Utley with our pick. Utley was picked 2 picks later by the Phillies.
good point-Ryno was drafted in the 20th but Wong wouldn’t have lasted into the 2nd round and if he makes it I think he will be better than average.
The Cards are going to get a lot of arms in this draft and
There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.
I’d like to start off the draft by getting the top one on the board rather than getting “alot” of down the line.
Jaime Garcia 22nd round HS arm . Good pitchers are found in all rounds.
Kolten Wong, 2B, University of Hawaii
Arguably the safest bet in the draft to reach the majors as at least a serviceable second baseman. Also, the University of Hawaii product is a safe bet to sign for slot, which made sense for the Cardinals team to target him with the No. 22 pick of the first round.
Clean swing without a lot of holes, he’ll make contact, and has an upside of a Freddy Sanchez at the MLB level (although extremely unlikely to ever win a batting title).
Batted .341 in the Cape Cod League in 2010 to be named the league MVP, and No. 13 rated prospect. According to Jim Callis at BaseballAmerica.com, Wong projects as a solid up-the-middle player:
“Though the 5-foot-9, 190-pounder isn’t overly toolsy, he has a quality bat with some pop, and he gets the job done as a runner and defender. Roberts said at the same stage of their careers, Wong is a more advanced hitter, defender and basestealer than his son Brian, a two-time all-star with the Orioles.”
Draft grade: B+
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/725579-2011-mlb-draft-grades-report-cards-for-each-team-each-pick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U64VN1fayRU&feature=player_embedded
Jay actually seems to be a slash stat copy of Vina +power and Vina +power is the comp I have heard the most. Scary though is that Schumaker is a much better Vina comp.
Jay career: .309/.369/.436 .354 wOBA
Vina: .282/.348/.379 .324wOBA
Schumaker: .287/.344/.379 .322wOBA
I highly doubt he gets over .450 slg but if he does Utley’s career line of .292/.380/.511 .387wOBA doesn’t seem that far away. Again I don’t think he becomes Utley, but I don’t doubt he could be Jon Jay with an average 2B glove.
Like I’ve stated a number of times. Its not that I dislike Wong its just I liked many other upside pitchers more. Wong will be an asset to our system and he will hit enough to be an attractive 2B. Should move thru the system fairly quickly (1.5-2 yrs).
You can’t go “high ceiling” every time. The cards have taken some high end projects in recent years, so I don’t blaim them for being bit more conservative this year.
However, Since they have less picks and stayed conservative, I hope they invest heavily in latin america this year
How about less picks so pick the best guy not the safest guy. Make the 1 pick actually count.
…Which would be a safe bet then.
I would have liked a more exciting pick, but there are a few things I like about this after reading all the scouting reports and looking in to Wong a little bit more.
1. He is only 20 yrs. old
2. He seems to have great on-base skills
3. He is Hawaiian, and has potential to be a great fan favorite
Welcome to the Cardinals, now let’s hope that we shoot for the moon with our second pick
how the heck does him being hawaiian mean he will be a fan favorite?
Pacific Islanders and Hawaiians are always fan favorites…its a rule
Tony Banks was Hawaiian – he was really loved in St. Louis
I’m hoping miraclously he doesn’t sign.
I agree completely 100%…. Would have loved to see Meyer… who was picked by Washington with the next pick…
just for the sake of getting the pick back next year? meh, that leaves the prospect with a lot of leverage in the second year, leading clubs to go extra safe in year two. i think that tends to be less rewarding than it sounds. don’t see the reason to go from one safe pick to another.
look, this isn’t a sexy shelby miller-type pick. it’s safe. it’s not outrageous. he was picked at 22, 24, 26 in the mock drafts. he went at 22. as azru pointed out, he’s a junior year college pick who doesn’t have the same uncertainty as kozma did as a high schooler. most likely, he’ll be a solid, cheap second baseman. i can live with it.
He has no upside at all, we passed on a top hs arm who didn’t have a huge price tag.
And probably never make it to the big leagues.
I would rather have a top arm who has the potential to make an impact either through getting to the bigs or trade bait than a 2b who its assured who probably will be no better than average.
Well heck I would take that as well…But since when are high school pitchers a sure thing?
Since when are top ml pitchers like you mentioned part of a package for second baseman? If you drft a top prep arm and packaging him for a second baseman, you failed with that pick.
I am not saying don’t ever go after that h.s. arm, just don’t do it every year.
Just s aying you got with the 3rd HS arm and BA 10 on the board at 22 rather than a signable 2b. No need for a sure thing, but I bet Guerrriri makes a bigger impact as a pro than Wong.
I take that bet!
Tell me this how is he any different than Skip Schumaker circa .300 hitting 4th OF days? Other than the D? .300 hitter decent speed can take a walk. Same guy.
higher OBP, better power projection, more SB’s, better defense. What more do you want? Wong projects better than Skip in nearly every category.
Wong wouldn’t have been my BPA pick but it’s a defensible pick. To say otherwise is ridiculous in my mind.
Guerrriri may have more upside but he has much more risk as well. You can’t look at one without the other.
More projectable power, more upside, better defence, better obp, less ks, better defence.
Plus, you are selling that accomplishment short. Having a .300/.350 MI is not that common. There were only 2 2nd baseman who hit above .290. Only 7 have an obp above .350. I wouldn’t so easily dismiss that ability.
And why is signability a negative thing? Every senior college player is an easy sign, so why avoid signing all seniors because its an easy sign?
Who cares if he is an “easy sign”. He was been labeled best college bat. why do people continue to get upset by this. Seems to have worked out so far for the previous 2.
You think Wong projects as a league average 2b? You really are blinded here by your prejudices aren’t you?
Look at Skip Schumakers 08 stats and tell me how Wong projects better than that?
Response posted elsewhere where you make this comparison.
Where you post? Look at Skip’s 08 stats. .308 .359 OBP 8hr, 48 rbi, 22 doubles 5 triples. Not bad but not worth the 22nd round pick.
I’ll post it again here since you cant remember where you posted. I’d love to see you try to refute the raw data.
This is where your logic falls totally apart.
I would take that Offense from Wong in heart beat with average 2B defense and I actually think Wong will be slightly better in the OBP dept. At 2B that offense gives about $15 million WAR value. since Wong is already basically at his potential (your words) he’s going to provide that from nearly day one in the majors. 6 cost controlled years of Wong providing 90 million in WAR value would be one of the greatest Cardinal first round draft picks of all time. One of the greatest bottom 3rd of the 1st round of all time. The average 1st round pick provides about $6-8 million in WAR value in his first 6 years.
I’ll bet you nearly anything that Guerrriri doesn’t provide $90 million WAR in his cost controlled years.
And you think that is bad? He was one of the best offensive second baseman that year. He was 4th in the majors in average and 6th in obp.
Alright, I’ve been with you for the most part up until now, but saying Wong has no upside is just asinine. I wasn’t a fan of the pick, wish they would have gone for one of the prep arms, but to say a player just drafted, rated in the mid-20s by every publication, has no upside? You’ve lost what credibility you had in your position making a statement like that.
Andrew, you’re a huge asset to this place, and I enjoy your posts, but you aren’t serious right now. I posted on another message board that I hated the pick because of how safe it is, and I hope 1005 that he signs.
Wong has a very good chance to be a ML regular, and we have 49 more picks to go. Say we took Norris or Tilson (Ill prep lefty who will be a tough sign), that makes up for the pick for me.
I wanted Norris and Brad Miller. Upside and safe. It’s going to make me feel much better if we just flip the script and go safe and then upside, ya know?
I think Wong should sign immediately and replace Skip Schumaker on the roster. Then I’ll like this pick.
I don’t know a lot about swings, but Wong’s looks really good in that video.
I think the best way to describe the pick is the way John Sickels describes it, “Wong’s regarded as a safe pick, and at this point in the draft there’s nothing wrong with playing it safe.”
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/6/2210407/2011-mlb-draft-tracker-results-cardinals-select-hawaii-second-baseman-wong
Yeah… I can think of a lot of save picks… I think the emphasis should be place on “SAVE” picks… as in save money…
Actually, to have a decent farm system you need a balance of safe and upside.
This isn’t some guy with a reach, but rather one of the best rated hitters, which is important in baseball.
Is it also your opinion that the cards no longer need the services of Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay, Allen Craig since they were useless, not HS prep arm players?
Limited picks, keep it a bit conservative.
I said this…. about Carp… Jay… & Craig….??? wong person. None of them were the 22nd player taken in a draft. If he’s really the hitter they say he is than they can start him at High A and we should expect a .330 avg this year.
Limited means go for impact with the 1 first day pick you have.
If I remember correctly, the Stadium at UH is one of the toughest hitters parks in all of college baseball. I know the Cards use a lot of stadium and competition factors on the stats of college players to normalize them so his stats in their mind are probably much more highly rated than they seem on the surface. He then confirmed that with his Cape Cod performance. I would have preferred to see a HS leftie (norris?) but I’m neither surprised or overly disappointed by this pick. IF the bat is as good as advertised, he could easily be an all-star 2B in the future.
It is. Brutal environment. Four year park factor of 73(!).
Les Murakami Stadium is not an easy park for hitters. Aloha Stadium wasn’t either, for that matter. I was stationed on two different submarines at Pearl Harbor for most of the 80s. Got to see quite a few old Hawaiian Islander games at Aloha Stadium before they went defunct. Gwynn left just as I was getting there. I didn’t get to see him too many times. I did get to watch Bonds quite a bit in 86. He was a LOT skinnier then, imagine that.
Ottavino–Kozma–Wallace–Miller—Cox–Wong. One high school guy whose not been so much and one who intrigues us. One college guy who helped get us Holliday, and one whose not been so much. We now wait on the latter two to see what will transpire. It is what it is. As the round progressed tonight, and one paused to ponder recent words of Lunhow on the Cardinal’s intentions for this draft, it sort of had a sense of inevitability about it. The longer Wong was still sitting there, the more the feeling grew. Perhaps, in a Cardinal middle infield world of sub-mediocrity, the addition of mediocrity is a step in the right direction. But tonight that’s something between cold comfort and a slow motion kick to the crotch that you knew was coming but couldn’t make yourself turn away from. Hey…he was great in the Cape Cod League!!! And he can catch and play outfield, too.!!! TLR’s kind of guy. And on a cheerier note, Rasmus wasn’t a first round selection in ’05 was he???? Somebody correct me if I’m remembering that wrong.
Tonight—it is what it is.
Rasmus was a late first rounder in 05.
Jockety was fired in 07, so 08 was the first post jockety draft. It was tough to tell who was making the decisions before then.
Since that time, its gone Wallace, Lynn, Miller, Cox, Blair, Jenkins, wong along with a heavy commitment in LA.
The first 2 have already reached and the thierthe top rated pitching prospect. I am happy so far.
Ok. Thanks. Couldn’t remember the draft history without looking it up. We’ve gone with offense-first infielders 3 of the last 4 years in the first round. This time it’s a middle-infielder. And his work in the Cape Cod League does recommend him, I suppose. So, there’s that. He’s a Cardinal now, so I’ll hope for the best. I guess I was so encouraged with the pitching we’d assembled in recent drafts, I was hoping we’d add to that earlier tonight.
I have no problem when the one tool all those guys have in common is the hit tool. Taking a hitter who can hit will never tick me off. Those guys will always be in need.
When you get into trouble is when you take guys who have every tool but lacking in the hit tool. See Kozma. See Greene.
Look at Skip Schumakers 08 stats and that pretty much projects to be Wong.
This is where your logic falls totally apart.
I would take that Offense from Wong in heart beat with average 2B defense and I actually think Wong will be slightly better in the OBP dept. At 2B that offense gives about $15 million WAR value. since Wong is already basically at his potential (your words) he’s going to provide that from nearly day one in the majors. 6 cost controlled years of Wong providing 90 million in WAR value would be one of the greatest Cardinal first round draft picks of all time. One of the greatest bottom 3rd of the 1st round of all time. The average 1st round pick provides about $6-8 million in WAR value in his first 6 years.
I’ll bet you nearly anything that Guerrriri doesn’t provide $90 million WAR in his cost controlled years.
Isn’t this all guess work by stats??? You can’t teach size… and natural ability…
How ia stats guess work? compared to projections based on a person’s size – talk about guess work!
If Wong consistently hits like Skip c.2008 and is an average glove at 2B, he’s a well above-average major league player.
I take that every day of the week for a #22 pick.
I’m also impressed by his success in the cape cod league. Hitting .345 and slugging .450 in cape cod is nothing to sneer at.
Compare to this blast from the past, the 2007 cape cod season. Recognize a few names?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6429
Wow…….thats some bad team if Robert Stock is the top talent on it :) Funny they said his one real skill is his transfer from glove to hand. Boy were they right on on that.
You can always sign a 2nd basemen… if you need one… Why was the 22nd pick???
Exactly 2b are much cheaper to sign or aquire that top of the rotation guys.
Becasue he is a good player. What Am I missing here. Its actually easier to sign an outfielder, should the cards have passed on Rasmus?
Some of you guys are just wongminded… We’ve played without a bonafide 2d sacker for so long that you think it’s no big deal. I’m OK if we focus on position players this year. Wong can field and he can hit. Welcome aboard.
Wouldn’t you rather have this year’s Shelby Miller, Taylor Guerriri? Than a 2b who most likely will be an average MLB 2b.
I wouldn yet call Guerrri the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.
This years Shelby Miller meaning a top notch pitching talent that wasn’t expected to fall that fell to us.
True. But the best line drive hitter in the draft also fell to them.
God forbid this team have a second baseman that can hit .300 smack 15 home runs and get on base.
If he’s so advanced he should be starting for Palm Beach in a week.
Agreed… If he’s such a great hitter than we can expect him to start at PB and hit for a .330 avg this year. Sorry but everything I am reading into here… reads drafting on the cheap… The org new they would have to pay a larger signing bonus for the other players that were available. Drafting on the cheap again… like dirt cheap that is… I think Mo needs to start appearing in their commercials… He’ll fit right in. Basically we drafted Skip with the 22nd pick.
Oh, for the love of god. What in this draft pick to you screams cheap? The Cards have gone overslot, well over in fact, each of the last two drafts, so why exactly would they suddenly decide this year to be tight-fisted with the draft bonuses? Maybe, juuust maybe, they actually like the kid. Whether we agree with them or not is another argument, but this kind of stupidity, of just wailing and moaning about cheap pick this and wasted pick that, doesn’t add anything to the debate at all. Good lord.
Ok I agree with the wailing comment. Was just trying to throw the dirt cheap humor in there. I still believe that this year they are looking to pay slot and not above. With the attendance down 8% this year. There are going to be some budget cuts and I suspect the 1st round pick may be one. I’m not saying I’m correct.. just IMO..
Everyone is bashing this guy, but if this guy turns into a Placido Polanco would that be a bad thing? I understand everyone wants superstars, but that’s just not realistic. The Cardinals had guys they liked and Wong was one of them. I think Luhnow and the scouting department have done a nice job with the farm system and I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. They know a hell of a lot more about these players then I, or any of you do. Skepticism is fair, but do deem this an immediate waste is just asinine.
Man, the guy’s projected to go in the late first round by the experts, he goes in the late first (to, bonus, a team has no decent prospects at that position), and everyone blasts the pick? Gimme a break. I mean, tools are great, but it seems to me that the most important one is the ability to hit, and this guy is arguably the best in the draft. Look at where that one tool is taking Brett Wallace.
And I love the “can’t pretty much ‘anyone’ play second” comment. Who are you, Tony La Russa?
Andrew, unless you are a time-traveler from the year 2015, you really can’t say what guerriri will be (or even shelby miller). It’s well known that hs pitching prospects have a far higher bust rate than college position players. I think it’s safe to say that difference was part of the calculus.
Your right but you can’t be scared of busting in order to get superstars. Miller could have busted and still may but he was the right call because of the potential impact he makes if he hits. Same with Guerriri. You can’t be scared to fail if you want to produce superstars.
But that is the thing. Some times the conservative picks are also superstars. Where are you getting that you have to be a highly touted HS player to ge a superstar?
Yes, Roy Halladay was HS pitcher, but so where the 7 done nothing picks ahead of him. And that only included those before him. There were also 3 more after him. 2 success out of 10.
With reward comes much higher risk.
The established college hitters? 4 winners, 2 misses. The lowest of the 4 winners was Geoff Jenkins at 19.3 WAR.
To draft superstars, you need a sound philosophy. If you just drafted top HS prep high ceiling pitchers ever year, you would have a terrible system.
How often does a Top arm fall to 22 though?
every year? or close to it?
Not really not unless they are highly unsignable. Guerriari didn’t have a huge price tag attached to him either or at least it wasn’t out in public.
Now you’re just being stubborn.
Top arms that lasted to 22 in 2010:
Zach lee, Aaron Sanchez, Anthony ranaudo, Luke Jackson, stetson allie, aj Cole
In 2009:
Kyle Gibson, Rex brothers, Tyler Skaggs, Garret Richards, tanner scheppers, andrew Oliver
In 2008:
Friedrich, schlereth, Casey Kelly, shooter hunt, odorizzi, holt, montgomery
2007:
Alderson, main, porcello, brackman, Ramirez,
2006:
Willems, Morris, bard, chamberlain,
2005:
Thompson, garza, Devine, Hansen,
And none of those are counting guys who DIDN’T sign, like Cole, Harvey, hochevar, etc.
Fact is, “top arms” fall to 22 every year. Perhaps the cards should have gone for one this year, but not because it,s unique, or even rare.
A lot of those guys had inconsistent springs, which caused them to fall (Cole and Allie from last year). Taking them from top arms, to being picked right about where they should have been either due to velocity drops (Cole), or command not coming along as hoped (Allie).
Not getting in the debate about who falls etc. but just because they’re a top guy before the season starts, doesn’t make them one at draft time, just as a guy who wasn’t a top guy before draft time, doesn’t mean he isn’t be draft time (Wong fits here).
Your exceptions are proving the rule here. And as for Cole and Allie, they were most definitely considered top arms, even with question marks. Fact is, the guy asked how often top arms fell to 22, and clearly it happens quite a bit.
He also has a HUGE character concern according to some reports I have read on the kid. Shelby Miller didn’t.
Nearly every year. Every draft is full of top H.S. arms.
Also, you mentioned that you can’t be afraid to bust to get superstars. I bet more superstars were established college players than drafted HS players.
Your probably right but Wong won’t be…….Guerriri may be.
Actually, if we play the odds, Wong has a significantly higher chance at being one.
What did you use to determine your position besides shooting from the hip.
153 594 540 87 163 22 5 8 46 8 2 47 60 .302 .359 .406 .765
Would you be happy with Wong if he hit 8 HR 46 RBI, .302 Average. .359 OBP, with 22 doubles at 5 triples?
I would be more than happy
So teach Skip Schumaker to field and thats what you get. Thats Skips 08 line.
You wouldn’t take those numbers over 6 years at a cheap price?
That’s where your wrong… Its only 6 years at a cheap price if the guy sucks..
If its 6 years than could you please explain to he how Tim Linecum who only had 4 years of ML service before this season already making 14 million this season… Oh that’s right its called arbitration…
Now you’re just being obtuse. Lincecum got a ton of money because he entered his arby years as perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball. No-one is saying Wong is ever going to be that good.
A closer comp in likely wages is someone like Theriot – $2.6m in his 4th year of service, $3.3m in his 5th and probably no more than $4.5m in his last. Or maybe Yunel Escobar, $2.9m in his first year of arby and on a similar path to theriot, price-wise.
Even a 2B as good as Pedroia is only making 8m in his final arby year (as part of a contract, admittedly).
1 I think thats best case scenerio for Wong, 2. I rather take a shot at a top of the rotation guy.
Wong’s not bad but is he that much better than a guy we could have getting at 79? And taken Guerriari at 22?
Maybe I’m just used to having crap 2b but I think, 2b is less valuable that pitching.
True pitching is more valuable. But I have never seen a team that won win 9 pitchers on the field.
I have seen team trade top pitching prospects to fill midseason needs though. Literally Howard or Guerriari is like adding a Shelby Miller type talent to our system instantly. Do that and take Christian Lopes at 79 and we are much better off.
No, its not like adding a Shelby Miller. What he has done is not common. You just don’t step in and become the #2 pitching prospect.
I have also seen top piching prospects traded. Deson’t mean a June drafted HS arm is at that level. Plus, when you do make that trade you have wasted the bonus money you paid to sign him.
Sure it’s like adding a Shelby Miller. A top HS arm fell to us…..in 09 we were shocked and delighted and signed him. This year we go with the safe pick. Guerrari is instantly our 3rd or 4th best prospect in our system and the Cardinals are applauded for going BPA again for the 4th year in row. Guerrari has Shelby Miller type talent and that gets you more in trades than Kolten Wong. Miller was a coup for our system even before he threw a pitch because of his talent and ranking. Guerriari would have been the same even before he threw a pitch.
Shelby didn’t have the off field issues.
We don’t know about this kids off field issues, the only one I could find was that he left a school to go to a better baseball school. Thats very common. The rules in the state are that they have to provide a electric bill from the new place with a different amount to show that someone actually moved. And it appears that they didn’t really move to the place they said they did.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611803.html
You post this and say he is going to be an easy sign?
Google Brien Taylor.
No reply button on above post so I’ll d it here. We may not know about his issues but the Teams do and there is a reason why he fell to a club with tons of picks who afford the chance he flames out. If it was easy as grabbing the next Miller he wouldn’t have even been there for us to take.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=22&draft_type=junreg&
If Wong hit like Skip did in 08 and played solid defense he would be one of the better WAR producers from that slot in draft in last 50 years. I’m not blown away by the pick either but its not the end of the world and we should at least see how it plays out.
This is what i’ve now posted 3 places for Andrew to respond to – he just cant face facts I guess.
This is where your logic falls totally apart.
I would take that Offense from Wong in heart beat with average 2B defense and I actually think Wong will be slightly better in the OBP dept. At 2B that offense gives about $15 million WAR value. since Wong is already basically at his potential (your words) he’s going to provide that from nearly day one in the majors. 6 cost controlled years of Wong providing 90 million in WAR value would be one of the greatest Cardinal first round draft picks of all time. One of the greatest bottom 3rd of the 1st round of all time. The average 1st round pick provides about $6-8 million in WAR value in his first 6 years.
I’ll bet you nearly anything that Guerrriri doesn’t provide $90 million WAR in his cost controlled years.
I didn’t have the reply option to this yet, I don’t know about WAR or anything like that so I can’t dispute your numbers. All I know is he seems like an average 2b that we could get in rounds 2-10 when the guy we passed seems like a top of the rotation guy who you can’t get in rounds 2-10. If we have Miller and Guerriari in our system last year do we trade one and end up with Oswalt? There are advantages to having top arms in your system. Sure this guy may be a good pro but i doubt hes that much beter than the a possible alternative. So a .300 hitting singles hitter…..He’s Ryan Theriot from when he was a Cub?
Ok. so they guy who is deemed best college hitter, ranked as first round talent by multiple publications is only average an availabel in the late secound round and even the the 10th round?
The didn’t pass on a top of the rotation guy. They passed on a guy who probably won’t even make it to the majors. Again, you have to consider the big picture. You look upside and see only upside. you fail to comprehend the 90% failure rate of HS pithers (not sure, just guessing on the #).
When did Wong becoume a singles hitter?
When has he been anything other than a singles hitter?
How about this: rather than claim he’s just a singles hitter loudly, how about looking up his statistics first?
If you’re interested in what kind of hitter Wong has been in college, he’s posted slugging numbers, as well as overall OPS numbers, that are very comparable to what Dustin Pedroia did in college. And just to add to that, Pedroia did it at Arizona State, in a hitter-friendly ballpark, while Wong put his numbers up at Hawaii in a hitter’s graveyard.
I’m not a fan of the pick, but you’re just raving about it without any real basis at this point.
I would be really happy with a line like that.
Welcome aboard, Kolten. It’s tradition around here to like the big gamble picks, but don’t worry, the crowd will come around. We’re all rooting for you!
A 2008 schumaker who can field is a 2.5-3 WAR guy. I’ll take that at second in 2013.
all i have to say is, To Wong Foo, thanks for getting rid of the skips & miles of the worlds
Well played.
Anyone want to take a guess at who Mr. Wong’s advised by????? Scott Boras… meaning this kid probably will not be an easy sign. Doesn’t it just keep getting better :)
He’s a Boras guy? Well Wong said he was wanting to sign quick but not sure why Boras would be his agent…..I’m hoping he doesn’t sign but no way that doesn’t happen I don’t think. He will be a SR next year iwth no leverage at all. All this means with Boras is we won’t see him play this year.
Yep.. really nice… Borass… :(
I think the rules need to be changed to once they enter the draft and have an advisor (ie. agent) there no re-entering. This is a joke. The MLB should change the rules. How can you expect to sign guys for slot when they can just go back to school again and not sign.
Yep I want to enter draft, have a team waist a pick on me and their scouting time just to see where I get drafted at. If its not high enough, I just go back to school. A complete joke.
There is a video showing Wong’s reaction to being signed and showing him hitting (much better than the seeing-eye single fest MLB chose to show for him last evening) that can be found here: http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14850268/uh-baseball-player-drafted-in-first-round-by-st-louis-cardinals
Aaron, you have done a nice job in helping me feel better about this pick–especially with those Hawaii park factors. Wong also doesn’t strike out much and will take a walk. He wouldn’t have been my choice at #22 but it is certainly a defensible one.
From the video you also get the impression that he is not looking for an overslot bonus so hopefully he will sign soon.
Good luck Kolten!
So, for clarification’s sake, Andrew does not like this pick
LOL Apparently not. Truthfully, I was nonplussed at first, too. But, hey, if the bat plays he is, after all, a middle infielder.
After checking on the remainder of the selections at the end of last night I gotta say, wow!!! I hadn’t kept up with who was getting compensated for what (except of course, that the Cardinals had none of that this year). But it was, mathematically, a 16.6% of the top 60 T.B. Ray draft night. Picks 24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, and 60. That’s kind of like restocking your minor leagues by making a trip to Sam’s Club. Wonder if somebody helped them with the carts to the car???
I’m sure he’s going to be a decent little player…..nothing wrong with that but I don’t like passing up Top of the Rotation talents. Especially w hen there are a ton of nice little players at 2b that we could get in the next few rounds that will probably be AS good at Wong.
Yeah. That’s sort of where I was about it when it first happened last night. Once I got over my initial disappointment that it wasn’t one of the riskier and more potential-laden high school arms, I began to realize the Cardinals felt they weren’t in a position this year to do that. I began to understand more fully what Luhnow was saying a few days ago. I don’t necessarily like it, but I understand it. So hopefully we have a middle infielder now who, before too long, can rise–even if only moderately– above an overall averageness and suckitude that is the middle infield in this organization that runs from the top to nearly the bottom. We’ll see.
Thanks for the video link. After watching the video can’t help rooting for the kid. Would have liked a little more stuff in the tool box, espn’s one tool comment certainly gives me pause, don’t like the agent–but hopefully TLR won’t have to convert any more tool less outfielders into second basemen.
[...] to the pick seemed to be mixed among different portions of the fanbase. Of course, there are lots of details about Wong over at the best place for minor league coverage, Future Redbirds. They also [...]
I just posted my analyst of Wong…check it out
http://www.redbirddugout.com/2011/06/cards-take-kolten-wong-in-1st-rd.html
Let’s crunch Wong’s hypothetical MLB numbers, based on Baseball America’s projection of “10-15 homers annually as a pro.”
The 20-year-old looks like a future .300 hitter, right? And he knows how to take a walk, and will also take a HBP (nine this year in 57 games).
So let’s say Wong typically hits 12 HR’s, with 35 doubles and 3 triples per year, to go along with his .300 average (everyone agrees the “hit” tool is a major strength) and 60 BB’s, 10 HBP’s.
Over a 550 AB season, that’s a slash line of .300/.380/.440.
If the young man does that, while providing merely average glovework & baserunning, that’s about a 4-WAR player, I’d guess.
While that isn’t a star, it’s a damn fine ballplayer.
Now, let’s say he hit’s .310-.315, or pops 15-17 homers, or steals 40 bases in 50 tries, or turns into a plus defender—then you’ve REALLY got yourself a player.
The more I look at this pick, the more I like it. (1)Wong’s walk/whiff ratio improved every year of college (more than twice as many BB’s than K’s this year), (2)he succeeded in a very tough hitter’s park, (3)he’s been extremely durable, (4)he’s younger than most college draftees, and (5)the switch to “deader” college bats affected him not a bit.
I’m optimistic the Cards make the exact right pick.
Wong hit 10 doubles in his college year how do you project him to hit 35 as a pro?
I didn’t read all the comments, but enough to know he wasn’t the fans choice. I like the pick. He’s a potential .300 hitter with 12-15 hr pop along with 15-20 sb’s from 2nd base. Every player isn’t going to be a .900 ops guy. What we got was a guy that should be here in 2-3 years and if does what people think he will do, he’ll be in the top half to third of 2nd baseman in the league. If we moved Tyler Greene to 2nd right now and he provided avg d, a .300 average, 15 hr, and 15 sb’s most people would be loving it. I also liked the fact he was advertised as a good bunter and hit and run guy. He could be a perfect 2 hitter for a long time to come.
Re: Wong’s doubles, he hit 36 in ’09/’10 in 120 games, and (at age 20) he figures to add at least a bit of strength/power over the next few years.
If you wanna say he’ll hit just 28-30 doubles, well, that’s only a difference of 5-7 total bases for the year, or about 10-12 points of slugging—which translates to maybe a third of a win. No big diff. :)
Anyway, I guess my central point would be that Wong’s “modest upside” is actually a 4.5 to 5.5 WAR player in his prime. Not a superstar, of course….but I think “borderline star” is a very plausible description of such a contributor.
Until they are actually performing successfully in the majors, short ballplayers *tend* to be undervalued. And second basemen *tend* to be undervalued. And prospects who play in tough-hitting environments *tend* to be undervalued.
I think Wong, for these reasons and the others cited above, may turn out to be quite a bit better than many prognosticators expect. ;)
Yeah,
Kolten Wong was possibly THE best hitter in the draft. Don’t let his size or even where he is from fool you. Everyone will see that he wasn’t overdrafted. He is a solid second baseman and his bat is amazing. Not everything is about power. He could easily be one of the top 2nd baseman in the league once he gets to the bigs. Pedroia did it with little power. Wong projects the same. A great pick in my opinion.
Look at it this way, at least they didn’t draft some big name pitcher that fizzles out or doesn’t become anything like 70% of them do. This was not only a safe pick, but a sound pick for their position in the Draft, and for the team needs around the infield and offense.
Pete Kozma is not a bad player. He at least made it to the majors, he fields, can play multiple positions, and he takes walks (in the majors anyways). I think if Wong reached the majors, that’d be a plus, as I feel Wong will be a guy who’ll field, take walks, and steal some bases, but looks to be a platoon player if he reaches the majors.
I disagree with almost every single sentence or phrase in this comment.
This…
“I think if Wong reached the majors, that’d be a plus, as I feel Wong will be a guy who’ll field, take walks, and steal some bases”
is probably the only part I agree with.
So, a 2nd baseman who fields, walks and steals bases (oh, and he’ll probably hit at least .270 or better) is no better than a platoon player. What is it about him that leads you to “platoon”? Right now, he’s probably the best defensive 2nd baseman in the entire organization (granted, the competition isn’t that grate) but I’d also make the statement he might be, at worst, the 5th best middle infield defender in the organization (behind Punto, Descalso, Greene, Jackson). The only guys I’d be hesitant about, since I haven’t seen them play is Donovan Solano and Jose Garcia.