This…

“I think if Wong reached the majors, that’d be a plus, as I feel Wong will be a guy who’ll field, take walks, and steal some bases”

is probably the only part I agree with.

So, a 2nd baseman who fields, walks and steals bases (oh, and he’ll probably hit at least .270 or better) is no better than a platoon player. What is it about him that leads you to “platoon”? Right now, he’s probably the best defensive 2nd baseman in the entire organization (granted, the competition isn’t that grate) but I’d also make the statement he might be, at worst, the 5th best middle infield defender in the organization (behind Punto, Descalso, Greene, Jackson). The only guys I’d be hesitant about, since I haven’t seen them play is Donovan Solano and Jose Garcia.

Kolten Wong was possibly THE best hitter in the draft. Don’t let his size or even where he is from fool you. Everyone will see that he wasn’t overdrafted. He is a solid second baseman and his bat is amazing. Not everything is about power. He could easily be one of the top 2nd baseman in the league once he gets to the bigs. Pedroia did it with little power. Wong projects the same. A great pick in my opinion.
Look at it this way, at least they didn’t draft some big name pitcher that fizzles out or doesn’t become anything like 70% of them do. This was not only a safe pick, but a sound pick for their position in the Draft, and for the team needs around the infield and offense.

If you wanna say he’ll hit just 28-30 doubles, well, that’s only a difference of 5-7 total bases for the year, or about 10-12 points of slugging—which translates to maybe a third of a win. No big diff. :)

Anyway, I guess my central point would be that Wong’s “modest upside” is actually a 4.5 to 5.5 WAR player in his prime. Not a superstar, of course….but I think “borderline star” is a very plausible description of such a contributor.

Until they are actually performing successfully in the majors, short ballplayers *tend* to be undervalued. And second basemen *tend* to be undervalued. And prospects who play in tough-hitting environments *tend* to be undervalued.

I think Wong, for these reasons and the others cited above, may turn out to be quite a bit better than many prognosticators expect. ;)

The 20-year-old looks like a future .300 hitter, right? And he knows how to take a walk, and will also take a HBP (nine this year in 57 games).

So let’s say Wong typically hits 12 HR’s, with 35 doubles and 3 triples per year, to go along with his .300 average (everyone agrees the “hit” tool is a major strength) and 60 BB’s, 10 HBP’s.

Over a 550 AB season, that’s a slash line of .300/.380/.440.

If the young man does that, while providing merely average glovework & baserunning, that’s about a 4-WAR player, I’d guess.

While that isn’t a star, it’s a damn fine ballplayer.

Now, let’s say he hit’s .310-.315, or pops 15-17 homers, or steals 40 bases in 50 tries, or turns into a plus defender—then you’ve REALLY got yourself a player.

The more I look at this pick, the more I like it. (1)Wong’s walk/whiff ratio improved every year of college (more than twice as many BB’s than K’s this year), (2)he succeeded in a very tough hitter’s park, (3)he’s been extremely durable, (4)he’s younger than most college draftees, and (5)the switch to “deader” college bats affected him not a bit.

I’m optimistic the Cards make the exact right pick.