A Word Of Caution About Short Season Stats
Posted on June 23rd, 2011 by Jeff in Nick Longmire, Niko Vasquez, robert stockNow that the short season squads have started up their seasons, I think it is important to note that these stats are not the be-all end all for a player – especially in the beginning of the year. The rest of the warning is after the jump.
First and foremost, in the beginning of the short season year, a lot of the top draftees are not even signed yet and a lot of the advanced draftees are still playing in the College World Series or the Super Regionals. The competition is very watered down early in the year.
Additionally, we have often fallen in the trap (I’m subject to this as well) of falling in love with a prospect from short season ball stats and projectability and then they have not lived up to the numbers they produced in short season ball. Some quick examples from the last few seasons:
Nick Longmire: 2010 wRC+(Batavia) = 144 / 2011 wRC+ (so far) = 82
Longmire also hit only 1 of his 9 HRs after August 5th in 2010.
Niko Vasquez: 2008 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 149 / his best season since – 2010 wRC+ (between two levels) = ~120
Vasquez never had another year with above average wRC+.
Robert Stock: 2009 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 153 / 2010 wRC+ = 64 and 2011 wRC+ in Quad Cities (repeating the level) = 51.
I know I’m cherry-picking some stats, but the point is there. Stats from rookie-level leagues mean very little in the grand scheme of things. However, by all means get excited, but think about the history when getting excited about these players because what happens in rookie ball does not always translate to full season ball.
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Sorry to go off subject right away but Valdes has been promoted and Cleto goes back to Springfield. Could be a very important move.
I heard Cleto is going to Memphis.
Apparently you’re right. This plus the two promotions to the big club may show that they think that Cleto’s closer to being ready than I thought he was.
It seems like they might be pushing Cleto to be ready sooner, but as a reliever given the bullpen problems in St. Louis. I hope this is not the case; I’d like to see Cleto tried as a starter until he fails.
The Cardinals won’t have BP issues when healthy. Next year we could have Sanchez, Salas, Motte, Reifer/Ottavino and Boggs. If there is a guy who can sit at 97-98 through 7 innings we need to do whatever is possible to keep him as a starter.
Definitely agreed. It would be a big mistake at this point to move Cleto to relief IMO.
I think Cleto is running out of options though.
You only use one option each year no matter how many times you’re sent up and down.
Just for a dissenting opinion I think that decision should be made based on which role the team thinks Cleto will be most effective in. Because of his control issues he throws a lot of pitches and I’m not sure he’s gone more than six innings as a starter. I believe he also does not have the arsenal of pitches that you look for from a starter. Also, next year we may actually have a glut of starting pitchers with a bunch more on the way.
I do agree that, if the coaches feel that he’s best off as a starter then that’s definitely the best use of him. It seems to me though that his spotty control, limited repertoire and incredible heater may profile better as a closer.
Cleto needs to stay as a starter and learn how to pitch and not just throw. He’s got a ton of talent and if he can stick at starter he’s a much better prospect.
Oh Nick Longmire — what a tease.