Four Players Ready for Promotions
Posted on June 28th, 2011 by azruavatar in Alex Castellanos, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, tags: Alex Castellanos, Keith Butler, Matt Adams, Trevor RosenthalWith the start of short season ball clubs, the Cardinals aren’t necessarily in a hurry to make midseason promotions. The club hasn’t been shy about moving top performers though including Carlos Martinez’s promotion to Palm Beach that was announced yesterday. Here’s a list of candidates who also look like they’re ready to make the leap to the next level.
Matt Adams
.357/.397/.685, 17 HRs
Adams is a controversial character at Future Redbirds not because he’s performing poorly but rather because he’s performing quite well in an unusual fashion. He’s consistently demolished balls in Springfield all season and only a back injury gave opposing teams a brief respite. If he’s healthy, he’s ready for Memphis. The Cardinals could make room by clearing out Nick Stavinoha’s .732 OPS from AAA.
Alex Castellanos
.317/.367/.552, 15 HRs
Castellanos has played Robin to Adams’ Batman all season. The concern with Castellanos is that he strikes out a good deal of the time (26%). That hasn’t slowed his offense this year as he has the 10th highest wOBA in the Texas League right now.
Keith Butler
20Ks in 14 innings
The Cardinals already promoted Butler from Quad Cities to Palm Beach where he was striking out a batter an inning. He responded by striking out batters at a higher rate in Palm Beach. He’s also shown above average control and has yet to allow a homerun at either stop.
| IP | H | K | K/9 | BB | BB/9 | GB% | |
| Rosenthal | 63 | 54 | 75 | 10.7 | 20 | 2.8 | 57 |
| Player B | 38.6 | 27 | 50 | 11.6 | 14 | 3.2 | 66 |
| Player C | 50.3 | 41 | 47 | 8.40 | 39 | 6.9 | 54 |
Trevor Rosenthal
75Ks in 63 IP
Rosenthal is the first line of statistics in the table. Player B is Carlos Martinez. You’ll see that Martinez and Rosenthal’s performance, on a rate basis, were not that far apart though Martinez was a tick better overall. Still, Rosenthal has shown that he’s able to dominate players at A-ball in Quad Cities. There may be developmental reasons (secondary pitches, pitching inside, holding runners, etc) that Rosenthal is still toiling in QC but it certainly doesn’t look like he needs much more time there. (Player C is Seth Blair and shows why you should be concerned about our supplemental pick from last year.)
Entries (RSS)
Do we have a nickname winner for Adams….”Batman” as stated by azruavatar?
Adams – Yes
Castellanos – Probably, would like to see his strike out rate lower.
Butler – Yes
Rosenthal – Yes
There’s no-one obvious to move aside for Castellanos (and arguably for Rosenthal). The Memphis OF should be Brown, Adams, Luna going forward, I’m guessing Hamilton is demoted to full-time 1B when Craig comes back, and Shane Robinson is the 4th OF. I don’t think any of those guys deserve to be released, and none of them are likely to bring back much in trade (although I think they should consider it with Luna especially), and they all really need full playing time. Outside of an injury, I don’t see how Castellanos makes it to AAA in the near future. In all honesty, he’s a bit old and is probably something of a Springfield mirage anyhow.
Adams cannot play the OF. He just doesn’t have the mobility for it.
see below
So you have already given up on Adron Chambers? The only prospect in the highest minors with the potential to bring game changing speed to the major league roster, not to mention a CF glove?? Unless you are saying he should be promoted as the lefty backup OF while Pujols is out and Jay is starting, which is exactly what I think. Otherwise I think you are pushing a 1B who isn’t very mobile and another OF with less upside ahead of him (Luna, who I am a big fan of nonetheless).
No, you’re both wrong – I just (for some reason) wrote “Adams” instead of “Adron”.
Butler has also only allowed one run to cross the plate during his stint with Palm Beach. He’s been most impressive. Not sure I’d say he’s ready for call-up quite yet, but I like seeing a call-up in a few weeks if he keeps up his utterly dominating ways. Any scouting report on him?
Adams needs to be called up to AAA ASAP. Time to see if the kid can translate to the next level. There is no reason to keep him in AA. He’s been one of the best, if not THE best, hitters in the Texas League. No one at Memphis is blocking him right now (Stavi…it is time to go) and Hamilton has not really shown that much in the majors anyways. Adams star is much brighter. You make room for those kinds of prospects.
Agreed re Adams. I am an Adams doubter, based on the low BB rate, but that itself is one reason why he should be at AAA. If he continues to mash there, then maybe the low BBs really aren’t a significant problem. The organization needs to find out if they are.
How is Butler getting guys out? Smoke and mirrors, or big-time heat that is now getting harnessed? If the former, I really don’t care whether he’s promoted or not; trajectories of PJ Walters-like pitchers are not terribly exciting to follow. If the latter, however …
I don’t think Keith Butler is PJ Walters. I don’t know his scouting report but PJ Walters was a starter. I doubt that as a reliever, Keith Butler could put up the strikeout totals he has with only a 90 mph fastball.
I am aware that PJ Walters had a higher K total than IP total when he was down at A ball. But I think Walters was a case of a guy with much more advanced control in a league of players that are for the most part raw.
casey mulligan put up gaudy K numbers with a barely-90mph FB.
Keith Butler:
2009 Scout.com GCL Releif pitcher of the year.
2010 spent in Batavia where he lead all the NY PENN League in Releif pitchers with 14.67strikeouts/9IP, struck out 50 batters in 30 2/3 innings.
2011 Started in QC where he pitched in 11 games giving up only 2 ER for an ERA of 1.17
Currently at PB pitched in 13 games and has only given up 1 ER for and ERA of 0.64 to date.
He sounds like the real thing to me!
Currently besides a couple of relivers at Springfield the rest have an ERA of any where from 4.00 to 9.00 that are on the active roster. Move him up!
I think there might be a tendency to see pitchers like Butler, Wright and Siegrist as finished products who will sink or swim with what they’ve got but to see the fireballers as needing more gradual progression. I think it may be the opposite. Butler is obviously doing something very right against lower minors hitters. Exposing him prematurely to better hitters won’t increase his chances of making it to the majors. Allowing him to adjust to each level may increase his chances of making his way eventually to the majors. I guess I’d allow him some time at each level to adjust to the adjustments that the hitters are making to him rather than putting him in a position where the hitters are already ahead of him. He’ll still be around next year and there’s no need to rush him through the system.
GCL relief pitcher of the year is like being the tallest midget.
So why rush him through the system? If the “stuff” he’s shown doesn’t suggest major league potential then let him see if he makes the adjustments to to succeed at each level. There’s nothing to lose whereas there is something to lose by promoting him prematurely. He’s succeeding well beyond the GCL so let’s see what he does with some patient handling.
I’m not saying Butler isn’t good. I’m saying that “award” is dumb and not representative of anything.
I kinda agree about Hamilton, FWIW, but to be fair he’s not had much of a chance in the majors. The fact he’s only hit 2 HR this year concerns me, as does the age, but he’s actually hit as well in Memphis (170wRC+) as Adams has in Springfield (172wRC+), so it’d be tough on him to cut him.
I understand what you are saying on Hamilton, but the fact is that he is almost as defensively limited to 1B as Adams, and while yes, he is hitting, he is not doing it for any power at a power needy position. All of that is not even taking into account his advanced age (almost 27). The guy is not a prospect anymore at that age, and while yes, it is an extremely limited sample size, the early ML results are making him look more and more like the second coming of an even more defensively limited Stavi. I would have little issue with both of them going, although Stavi should certainly go first. I do still think (as I alluded to in another comment) that Hamilton should be at least demoted and Adron Chambers called up. While Chambers hasn’t hit as well as hoped right now at AAA, he has looked a bit better of late (at least last I checked his recent line), and he provides a good bench glove and the ability to step immediately in as the Cards fastest player. Hamilton is nothing more than a pinch hitter at this point anyhow.
We don’t need another OF glove IMO. Chambers is a left-handed CF and we already have two of those on the roster (this isn’t a knock on Chambers btw, who I like as a prospect and who I think may make Jon Jay eminently tradeable, but I just don’t see him as a good fit right now. If anything, Andrew Brown, who is a right-handed power bat, should be up instead of Hamilton, as our hitting on the bench seems a bit lefty-heavy for my tastes. I’m just not convinced a defensive sub is required when we have three plus gloves (Jay, Rasmus, Holliday)).
Holliday is only a plus glove in LF and Rasmus is only a plus glove some of the time (although he certainly has the talent to be one all the time). No argument on Jay, but he is the starter in the absence of Pujols with Puma over at 1st. I don’t disagree with Brown’s value, but I do like to have a glove guy on the bench as well as a speed guy for those late inning situations. While the Cards have some guys who are faster than others, lets not fool ourselves, they have no true speed guy on the team right now.
Could the Cardinals possibly be keeping Adams in AA to keep his trade value up in case they need to use him in a deal for a reliever at the deadline? Maybe they’re worried he might not fair well in AAA, which would hurt his trade value quite a bit given they question marks about his ceiling already.
No. Adams has a lot more value as a contingency plan in case Pujols is resigned than as trade bait. A LOT more.
Likely Adams is being kept down for two reasons. (1) He just got back from injury about a week ago. (2) Hamilton will likely be sent down soon, causing a logjam (which Johnny Mo really needs to fix, preferably by releasing Stavinoha). I think Adams is in AAA within two weeks. Hopefully by next week.
You make room for a guy hitting like Adams. Time to clear way and see what you have. When Hamilton is sent back down, put him on the bench or put him in the OF.
It seems they are really keeping a close eye on Rosenthal’s innings (not that they can’t do that at PB) and having him work on the side to improve somethings kind of like they did Miller last year. They may be following the same plan, keep him at QC this year then he’ll spend a month at PB next spring or go straight to Springfield. I personally find him a very interesting prospect, I think we kind of over look him because of Miller and Martinez. Good problem to have.
I think you’ll see Rosenthal at Palm Beach just before the year closes. Let him get a little acclimated so he can hit next year running.
Let’s hope Rosenthal isn’t traded. I’m started to get really worried that Rosenthal and/or Swagerty might be packaged in this Bell rumor. That would be awful.
I don’t know if it would be that bad. I really like both players but if (and it may actually be quite a big if) Bell is a Type-A free agent at the end of the year (and the compensation dictated by the CBA remains similar to what it is now), he’ll probably net us a draft pick or two for losing him (either that or we offer arby and get one year of an elite reliever for a reasonably fair price, which might not be ideal in terms of keeping Pujols but wouldn’t be a disaster).
I’d probably swap Swags for 3-4 months of Bell plus a probable supplemental pick (especially given Swags was a 2nd rounder) and maybe a first/second round comp pick too.
Why would you trade someone like Swagerty for Bell?
Swagerty utterly dominated Quad Cities and he’s been very good at Palm Beach. 37.1 IP, 7 starts, 2.17 ERA, 32 strikeouts. WHIP at 1.15 as well. He’s been great and has a really high ceiling. The chances of landing a guy in the draft that will do as well as Swagerty is doing right now for the Cards is slim. Honestly, it’s slim.
The Cards bullpen is finally stabilized with Boggs and Lynn. Franklin WILL be gone either by DL or release very soon. Tallet hopefully as well will be gone. There is no need to acquire a closer. Salas is doing just fine. And as I was saying, the front of the bullpen has definitely been addressed recently and will continue to get better by subtraction.
Hmmmm. Way to not address any of my points in any way.
Not that I’m arguing for it, you understand, but the reasons one might choose to deal Swagerty for Bell are
a) we’re in a contending year and the 1-2 wins Bell might add over the rest of the way are highly valuable in a likely very close NLC finish.
b) and more importantly, IF (as I said) Bell is a type A and the compensation set-up in MLB remains much the same, he will net us 1 or 2 high draft picks in the next year’s draft, which are likely worth as much as or more than Swagerty, a guy who I really like and who’s had fine results so far but who likely isn’t going to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter or set-up guy in the majors.
The Padres likely wouldn’t accept Swagerty for Bell anyway; they can simply keep him and gain a couple of draft picks next year, which i expect they’ll do if they don’t get a better offer than a low-to-mid-ceiling, high-A starter.
FWIW I agree with your point that a closer isn’t really required, but it’s unarguable that Bell would improve our bullpen greatly (I can’t see Sanchez back, and really, with the possible exception of Salas, none of the other guys in that pen likely have late-inning roles on many contending teams. It’s a weak pen, and if we make the playoffs, I really think our poor pitching in the rotation & bullpen makes us a rank outsider). Personally, I’d rather pick up a left-handed reliever, because Miller and Tallet both royally suck, but if the asking price for Bell is as little as Jordan Swagerty,
I’ve lost faith in the Cards’ willingness to seize on potential draft pick opportunities. It seems like it’s a relatively low strategic priority to them, so I’d rather see them hold onto the Faberge egg in this case…if the egg is named Rosenthal or Swagerty.
Franklin and tallet out. Marte and fick in!!
LOL… not a chance.. on Marte or Fick…
I wouldn’t go so far as to say not a chance, Marte has an ERA of 1.89 right now at Memphis, and while he certainly hasn’t ever pitched that well at the ML level, he does have experience. I think it more likely to see a RH reliever (or two) arrive via a trade, whether it be Bell or whomever, but I wouldn’t rule out seeing Marte in STL this year. Fick, on the other hand, in spite of a nice 2.79 ERA, concerns me a bit with his K/BB split (35/21). If he could maintain that ERA in the ML with that split, great, but not sure it will transition that smoothly.
I like this list. I really thought that Rosenthal would get the call before Martinez. Martinez is younger, etc. Rosenthal had a couple of shaky starts when he had the back problem. Other than that, he has mostly been very good. So, I do wonder if something else is going on. He has had low run support and hasn’t had the best D when on the hill, so I feel like he has held up fairly well.
I’m not sure you can make a definite statistical case for Rosenthal to be promoted over Whiting. Rosenthal is reported to have better “stuff” but that doesn’t make him necessarily any more ready for promotion.
I am concerned about Rosenthal’s innings as well but that isn’t really relevant to where he is playing.
I really like Whiting but he just transitioned to the rotation.
After tonight, Whiting has thrown just 10 less innings than Rosenthal this year. Over the last 2 years he has thrown 10 more. My guess is they know what thye have (or don’t have)already with Whiting more so than Rosenthal
I really like Whiting. For one thing he has the best baseball name!! Secondly tonight he gave up 2 dingers to Cedar Rapids big catcher first 2 times up. Last time he bussed the guys tower and guess what? The guy struck out. Reminded me of Gibby.
Probably not much of a prospect but the one prospect I see who should be promoted is Mike O’Neil at Batavia. .883 OPS in his second year there and a .773 OPS there last year. He’s 23 so I don’t see the point of keeping him at Batavia.
Ya…how does Whiting not get more love…his numbers are ridiculous…So what he doesn’t throw 95+
the kid knows how to pitch! Seth Blair throws 95, but he sucks…Whiting throws 89-92 but he has 7 pitches and is a control artist. Promote the kid up until he starts failing…he is dominating tonight again.
Adams needs more AA seasoning.
i suspect he’ll be there until 7-31 or thereabouts
I’m still shocked Rosie is still at Quad Cities. What does a guy have to do?
I’m not really sure where the “controlled innings” is coming from regarding Rosenthal. He trails Ferrara by one inning for the team lead in innings pitched. He most certainly would have more innings if he wasn’t in a 6 man rotation. He would likely have more innings with better defense behind him. To my knowledge, he is coming out when his pitch count gets high. Also, when you are getting lots of strike-outs, the pitch count rises. So, I don’t think they are controlling his innings at all – I do think they are keeping him between 90-100 pitches for now.
Guessing it’s more of a logjam issue further up the tree, as opposed to a performance issue. Until there’s space for him I guess they can’t move him.
Another guy, IMO, ready for a promotion is Sam Freeman to AAA. Keep in mind, this is a guy that the Cards thought highly enough of last season to call in early for at least a cameo in big league camp, of course only to discover he needed TJ surgery. But, while I keep hearing his velocity is not all the way back yet, his results have been pretty good. With Valdes up to ML, Freeman makes sense to the ‘pen in Memphis. Also, it is my hope he would show enough that he could be in STL this season. I believe that if Valdes shows he can handle that spot in the Cards ‘pen, either Tallet or Miller will be cut. My hope is that, barring massive improvement from the one of those guys who isn’t cut, Freeman could be added to the 40-man and given a chance to join Valdes in improving upon what, at least to these eyes, looks like one of the worst left-handed sides of a bullpen in baseball. I believe Freeman will require 40-man protection this offseason regardless, and I don’t think many people expect to see Tallet or Miller in STL next year, regardless of whether Valdes is able to actually displace them now anyhow.