Comments on: Listen to Kevin Goldstein Talk About Cardinal Prospects for 40 minutes!

By: RichardRich

RichardRich — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 18:52:25 +0000

How does it remind you of AP? Adams was one of the best players in the MWL last year after a big SS debut and the scouts didn’t give him any love and hes also ad over 775 pro PA before this year while Albert went up the whole system in his first pro season at 20 years old.

Skipping Hi-A in our system is a help you go from one of the best pitching parks in the minors in a pitchers league to one of the better hitter parks in a hitters league, if you have over 500 PA you should make that jump with ease. All you need to do is look at the staggering amount of our guys who go to Springfield and breakout statistically, If Our Double-A team was still in the Southern League or Eastern League like in the post I could still buy that but not when its the Texas League.

By: Lou Schuler

Lou Schuler — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 15:26:51 +0000

I’m not comparing skills, but circumstantially, Adams’ improbable rise as a prospect is starting to remind me of Albert. Both were marked down as bad-bodied guys. There also seems to be similar disbelief, like people who see them hit don’t want to believe they’re as good as they look.

I remember after AP’s first season in the minors, when he went from a half-season in the MWL all the way to MVP in the PCL championship series and then kept hitting in the Arizona Fall League, he was still rated in the 40s in BA’s top 100. Not only was he not rated the #1 prospect on the Cards (that was Bud Smith), he wasn’t even the #1 prospect in the MWL. That was Austin Kearns, IIRC.

But that’s where the comparisons end. Adams’ K:BB ratio is not improving by level. This year he’s at 40:15, vs. 78:33 last year. He also has a .373 BABIP, vs. 327 last year, despite hitting slightly more ground balls this year (47.8% vs. 40.3%).

Mashing is mashing. You can’t take that away. I’ve never seen him play, but the stats suggest an elite combination of hand-eye coordination, reaction time, and power.

One of the big things Goldstein talked about in his chat was how big a jump it is for prospects to go from any level to AA. Adams is a 22-year-old who skipped a level and continues to dominate in AA with (for now) better numbers than he put up in the MWL. This after playing DII college ball.

By: easy

easy — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 14:17:08 +0000

I think you did well too. It was a relaxed, chatty format and you didn’t have any obligation to cover any particular players. Hope you’ll share more of this stuff with us.

By: RichardRich

RichardRich — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 11:37:06 +0000

Most large players have false measurements and that’s why people here have a hard time accepting Adams is well over 250. Just look at Todd Coffey who is listed at 6’4″ 240 but there is no chance in hell he is close to 240

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/00pu46p8biazR/x350.jpg
or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RrfGqjI6HU

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:40:16 +0000

FWIW I think Albert’s is possibly a bit conservative too. I’m an inch shorter than him and about 180, and I think you could fit two of me into Albert.

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:11:22 +0000

I think this is a very even-handed summation. Good post.

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:10:59 +0000

No way is Adams 230. Goldstein is much closer to his real weight IMO than the “230″ quoted on official sources (which I’m guessing he might’ve been when drafted). And, having seen them both, I’d say Adams is definitely bigger than Wallace. Maybe he’s 260ish? I could believe 280 though. He’s a BIG guy, height and girth.

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 10:00:41 +0000

Thats probably fair comment, yeah. But we have a couple of potential stars in the system.

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 09:48:41 +0000

I’d say the other way round. When you can afford to acquire guys like Matt Holliday in free agency, being able to build a team of Allen Craigs and Daniel Descalsos is more important than taking a bunch of high-upside picks and having them all bomb out IMO (although I do espouse a mix of high-upside and high-floor guys, in general I think mid-market teams with good player development like the Cards are well-served going more heavily on the latter).

The problem with our team, year on year, is not paying Matt Holliday $17m or Albert Pujols $25m, it’s paying guys like Jake Westbrook, Jason Isringhausen and Kyle Lohse $8-10m. If you can develop swathes of those sort of role players, bullpen guys, and back end starters internally, it leaves you a lot of money to spend on 3 or 4 stars.

By: Pitchers Hit Eighth

Pitchers Hit Eighth — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 05:52:36 +0000

Thanks for the kind words – didn’t mean to come off as fishing for compliments, I know that I (we) can improve the show. Very interested in doing so. Thanks for listening.