Inspired by the Kevin Goldstein podcast below from Pitchers Hit Eighth, I wanted to take a look at Zack Cox and his struggles so far in Springfield. A quick look after the jump.
Zack Cox came of an abbreviated rookie season and went right into the Arizona Fall League where he OPS’ed .779 in 75 plate appearances. He started the year in single-A Palm Beach, and played well in a pitcher’s park and pitcher’s league. Cox hit 23% line drives in Palm Beach and had a wRC+ of 126 in his 180 plate appearances there. (wRC+ is based on wOBA and both park and league adjusted so it compares how well a player has done considering the league and parks he is playing in. 100 is average.)
After that start to the season, one would think that Cox would go to Springfield in a hitter’s park and league that is especially friendly to left handed hitters and shine, but that has not been the case. The jump from A to AA is large, but after quickly mastering a pitcher’s league, the results are surprising. Cox has hit 61.6% of his batted balls on the ground (which is 20% more than PB), so he’s not getting solid contact like he was in Palm Beach. He does have a .262 BABIP, so he is due for a bit of a regression, but not much unless he stops pounding more than half of the balls into the ground. In comparison to above, his wRC+ for his 131 plate appearances in Springfield is 58.
The machinations of the draft and signing of Zack Cox and granting of a Major League deal (I’m sure he wasn’t going to sign without the major league deal) make Zack Cox’s play both spotlighted and impossible to take a patient approach with the kid. Obviously, 386 plate appearances does not a summer make, but it is still concerning especially with Kevin Goldstein’s opinion of Zack Cox.
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What does Goldstein say about Cox, specifically?
Overrated, didn’t believe in his swing, no power, just passable at 3B.
Also, bad body, never should have been given that much money or a major league contract. Can’t possibly play second, not athletic enough, probably adequate at third, can hit but not for power.
…also, no chance at 2d base. Other than that, he was enamored with the kid.
In short:
-Passable at 3B defensively
-No-Go at 2B
-Can hit
-Decent approach
-Not much power
All-in-all, not worthy of the big league contract.
I actually agreed with Goldstein on Cox. I just don’t see anything more than an average bat. Sure, he’ll get some contact but I’m skeptical that he’ll hit for enough power for his bat to play at the hot corner.
Though many 3B have solid power its not a requirement to being a good MLB 3B. There are plenty of 3B that have had successful careers hitting for a good avg, getting plenty of doubles and 10-15 HR’s while playing avg to above avg D. I am not saying that all of those things are exactly how Cox will be but I don’t think I am far off. The question will be if Freese can stay healthy (heaven forbid!) the rest of this year and next while staying productive as he should if healthy what to do with Cox? If all goes well we will have a logjam at 3B with Freese, Carp and Cox. A good problem to have IMO.
Agreed completely.
I should add more content. I agree with Goldstein completely that the kid is not a big time prospect, doesn’t profile as a star, and never should have been given that kind of money, nor a ML contract.
Goldstein was pretty consistent with this. Remember, he had Cox rated behind Tyrell Jenkins among others on our prospect lists.
Way too small a SS to make any definitive statements about his career, but the scouting problems are much more important than the lack of results thus far.
I watched Cox play over the weekend and he looked like a completely different player from his first week or two in AA. The first few times I saw him play he looked overmatched v. lefties, but made hard contact and had a very good approach v. right handers. On Saturday handedness didn’t seem to matter. He had very poor at bats against a righty starter. Five or six games is not a very good sample size, but I was astonished at how different he looked relative to prior games where I personally thought he hit into some tough luck. In spite of his error total, I continue to believe he can be at least average defensively. On Sat. he handled a couple of reasonably tough chances just fine.
Meant to give some other thoughts on the game on Sat. but wasn’t able to. Briefly:
Shelby pitched much better than even his first (very successful) AA home start. The home run was on a 93 mph fastball that the hitter found his way into. In his first AA home start (I missed his second start unfortunately) Shelby threw about 75% of his pitches from 93-96. A much better mix last time out, with numerous off spead offerings in the mid 80s. Made some of the hitters look silly. Sat 95-96 on the stadium gun. His last pitch in the sixth was a 93 mph fastball.
In the first, Adams hit the second hardest ball I have seen in AA. It was a line drive off the pitcher, that by sound alone, hit the bat and the pitcher at the same instant. The ‘pop’ associated with hitting the pitcher was gruesome. I understand that this isn’t possible in the physical universe in which we live, but it was an absolute missle off his bat. It is truly a testament to the SP’s toughness that he remained in the game (and unfortunately pitched very well).
Perez threw out two runners (and actually threw out a third but Shelby got a k to end the inning). Haven’t heard much about Perez, and not sure if he is a great prospect, but apart from his impatience (and on Sat. he actually tooks some pitches), he looks like a nice player as well.
Goldstein doesn’t HATE Cox. Just thinks he’s overrated. He said he seems him as a high average guy who will get on base, play average defense at third and not hit for much power. I think that’s perfectly reasonable.
Yup. I think I agree with that assessment, too. A bit much wishcasting on Cox for my liking. FWIW I see Matt Carpenter having a more successful MLB career in the medium term.
If Cox starts to hit in AA I’d love to see us move him.
No, I don’t hate Balboa. I pity the fooh.
Good point. If the knock on a guy is all he can do is play ok 3rd base and hit, and get on base, that is not a bad thing.
I think we will see a gregression on power. Only 10 3rd baseman hit over 15 home runs last year. David Freese doesn’t hit alot of home runs and look how much this team missed him.
Polonco has had a great career as a third baseman. He is hardly a power guy. No he is not a longoria or zimmerman, but are those guys available in the bottom half of the first round?
I never discount guys who can hit.
Polanco’s played 2B most of his career.
I admit I was first excited about adding Cox to the system, but in retrospect it was because of two reasons: 1) He was a highly-rated player projected to go much higher, so I liked the value at the pick, and 2) We had no bats in the system (at the time) to be excited about. After seeing the dude play in person, however, my view is he doesn’t have the power you need at the hot corner or the athleticism for the middle infield. To me, he has a utility-player ceiling. Plus drafting Austin Wilson in the same draft suddenly made him look less appealing. Sure, significantly more risk with Wilson, but much higher upside. It’s like bringing home a cute girl only to find out later that the bombshell down the street broke up with her boyfriend and is willing to listen to overtures.
Cox is going to have to work through adjustment to AA, it sounds like he is in a slump.
In the long run, Cox will be all right. He has to be able to hit for average and he showed this at Palm Beach. If he can field 3B and hit for average, he can play in the majors. He may need 3 years preparation in the minors to get ready.
It seems that Cox was a needs move that struggles under the scrutiny of the light of day. His bat may be good but perhaps not displaying enough power to play 3rd base, which is the only position his defense projects to play. His glove, while satisfactory, is not likely as good as Matt Carpenter’s.
We have three 3rd basemen, converging on the majors, one (already there) who would be more than good enough if we weren’t worried about a physical breakdown and niggling injuries. The other two leave a little to be desired in the power department.
I don’t think the Cox selection turns out to be exactly what we bargained for… Agree with those who suggest a trade might be in order if Cox starts to hit in AA.
Its unclear Zack Cox has much value in trade right now. It may be best to let him play for a few years in the minors, then promote or trade him.
Again I can’t believe how impatient everyone seems to be. Cox came virtually straight from college (about 15 rookie league at bats) to hold his own in the Arizona Fall League (which is rated as AA competition) and then after starting slow, again with only 15 professional AB’s that count, hit really well in a difficult hitters league for Palm Beach. Now he not hitting well in 150 ab’s at AA and everyone is down on him. I would want to see failure for the remainder of this year and all of next season before I would jump on the negative bandwagon.