I linked to this post yesterday from a Hawaii based news channel and the links to our post started their way around the internet. Afterwards, Derrick Goold threw some lukewarm water on it saying that there wasn’t an official agreement in place.
I clicked through to the Hawaii report earlier today and noticed some oddities. First of all, the report originally said
KITV4 Sports has learned that Wong will receive a $1.5 million signing bonus.
but now reads with a more nebulous
KITV4 Sports has learned that Wong will receive a signing bonus between $1 million and $1.5 million.
The title of the post changed from a definitive “signs” to a less definitive “agrees”. All of this is just a small blip on the radar, if an admittedly frustrating one for me personally. The reporting isn’t mine but I do feel somewhat at fault for latching onto a (likely) premature report out of Hawaii.
The reality is that this will be a quick sign for the Cardinals barring something unforeseen. They want to get Wong into the system in a hurry and avoid a layoff like Zach Cox had. It’s best for both sides. Wong will likely sign at or near slot value — maybe a little over — but there’s no indication that he won’t sign. Official word, confirmed by a local scribe or the Cardinals themselves, probably isn’t far off (a week or two at most is my speculation) but this time I’ll wait for the ink to dry.
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Now that the short season squads have started up their seasons, I think it is important to note that these stats are not the be-all end all for a player – especially in the beginning of the year. The rest of the warning is after the jump.
First and foremost, in the beginning of the short season year, a lot of the top draftees are not even signed yet and a lot of the advanced draftees are still playing in the College World Series or the Super Regionals. The competition is very watered down early in the year.
Additionally, we have often fallen in the trap (I’m subject to this as well) of falling in love with a prospect from short season ball stats and projectability and then they have not lived up to the numbers they produced in short season ball. Some quick examples from the last few seasons:
Nick Longmire: 2010 wRC+(Batavia) = 144 / 2011 wRC+ (so far) = 82
Longmire also hit only 1 of his 9 HRs after August 5th in 2010.
Niko Vasquez: 2008 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 149 / his best season since – 2010 wRC+ (between two levels) = ~120
Vasquez never had another year with above average wRC+.
Robert Stock: 2009 wRC+ (Johnson City) = 153 / 2010 wRC+ = 64 and 2011 wRC+ in Quad Cities (repeating the level) = 51.
I know I’m cherry-picking some stats, but the point is there. Stats from rookie-level leagues mean very little in the grand scheme of things. However, by all means get excited, but think about the history when getting excited about these players because what happens in rookie ball does not always translate to full season ball.
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With Quad Cities off for the ASB, we still have a full docket with lots of extra innings.
On the DFR!
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Memphis @ Iowa, 5:05pm: Brandon Dickson
Memphis @ Iowa, TBD: Bryan Augenstein (?)
Springfield vs. Arkansas, 7:07pm: Kevin Thomas
Palm Beach vs. Fort Myers, 6:35pm: Justin Smith
Quad Cities: No Scheduled Games
Batavia @ Mahoning Valley, 7:05pm: Hector Hernandez
Johnson City @ Kingsport, 7:00pm
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There were shutouts, blowouts, and extra innings galore! Plenty to read tonight, as David Freese begins his rehab and Punto continues his. Johnson City had its first game tonight, and Tyrell Jenkins made his much anticipated debut as their opening starter. Read on to see how he did…
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Many thanks to James who sends in more photography that shows just why I should stick to watching the players and not trying to snap pictures. Try not to scream like a little girl but there are some legit Shelby Miller pictures after the jump.
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Memphis @ Iowa, 7:05pm: PJ Walters
Springfield vs. Arkansas, 7:07pm: David Kopp
Palm Beach vs. Fort Myers, 6:35pm: Eric Fornataro (Rotation in flux from FSL All-Star Game)
Quad Cities: No Scheduled Games
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