The St. Louis Post-Dispatch via dgoold has the 5 international free agents the Cardinals signed today:
- Dewin Perez, LHP, 6-0, 175 lbs.; Born: Sept 29, 1994 (Cartagena, Colombia)
- Eliezer Alvarez, SS, S/R, 5-11, 165; Born: Oct 15, 1994 (Santiago, Dominican Republic)
- Jose Godoy, C, L/R, 5-11, 180; Born: Oct 13, 1994 (Maracaibo, Venezuela)
- Alirio Negrette, LHP, 5-11, 176; Born: March 29, 1995 (Maracaibo, Venezuela)
- Luis Arias, RHP, 6-3, 180; Born: July 6, 1993 (Bonao, Dominican Republic)
Dewin Perez got a $450,000 bonus.
Perez is undersized at 5-foot-11 but scouts have seen the hurler sit in the high 80s with a good delivery and show a feel for his offspeed stuff, according to Badler (subscription req’d). The youngster is a solid athlete and a former switch-hitting outfielder.
Back to dgoold, here is Lunhow on their approach to the market this year:
“When it came to looking at the investment we could make (in this market), we could have gone all-in on one guy or spread it around on a few. We decided to go on the latter.”
So, do not hold your breath for the Cardinals to nab any of the top unsigned guys in Latin America. Considering the uncertainty of the 16 year olds signed and how they will progress, that is not necessarily a cheap or unwise option. Having more mid-range prospects who could develop gives you more chances to turn one into a major leaguer.
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Not that I disagree with what Lunhow said about hedging their bets in multiple players, but I’d love to see them invest more in guys with some projection. Granted, I don’t see as much as with these guys, but short pitchers don’t exactly get me really intrigued unless they’ve got crazy movement on their pitches. The only one that really intrigues me is Alvarez, and that’s mainly because he’s a switch hitting shortstop who supposedly has solid bat speed and a strong arm.
Anyone got any reports on them?
I would rather go all-in on one top shelf guy.
I tend to agree with the upside argument in the draft, but in Latin America I don’t have a problem with speading the money around more. When it comes right down to it, you’re essentially taking all the difficulties of projecting a high school kid, then just lopping off the two most important years of their development, their junior and senior seasons. If I’m trying to guess on a high school sophomore, I’m more inclined to try and get a bunch of them with good tools instead of going all in on just one guy who is still going to be five or six years (at best), away from the big leagues.
Bottom line, I would rather bet a bunch of times than just once or twice, even if the one bet might be the safest one. These kids are so, so far away I would honestly take quantity over perceived quality.
I am curious, what high priced Latin American Signings have been big successes? I know guys like Rivera, Reyes, and Pedro Martinez were not big high priced prizes at the time. I was just curious.
Miguel Cabrera
Who signed with his favorite team for $1.8M back in ’99. It would have cost other teams more. Multiply 2 or 3 times for a player of that caliber in this day and age with more fierce competition.
The odds on favorite this year signed for $5M. That’s a lot of money to hand over to a 16 year old who is harder to project than a HS or college kid and might never realize his potential.
Still, it would be exciting to sign the next Cabrera.
Felix Hernandez bonus was pretty big at the time (710k), but kind of pales in comparison to the bonuses now.
I found this top 20 all-time list:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html
The list doesn’t inspire much confidence, although a lot of the players are way too young to be judged quite yet. I really think that 16 is too young to be throwing 2+ Million at a kid, and would rather spread it around. Saw that the Rangers gave a 16 year old outfielder 5 Million today and he is already 6-5. I kind of wonder what happens if this kid ends up growing more and hitting 6-8 or so. I guess convert him to pitcher or trade him to the Mavericks.
That was a pretty ugly list
Fourteen of the 20 players on the list are not even 20 yrs old yet…..all the list really shows is that bonuses have gone up the last 3 years.
He’s 16 and 5’11. I’m 6 foot now (26 years old) and I know I wasn’t 5’10 when I was 16. He could grow a couple inches, and fill out with some bulk. That high 80′s could become low 90′s, which is plenty for a lefty.
I agree, a kid that sits in the high 80′s as a 16 year old and is a lefty is pretty exciting, no matter how tall he is.
Most of the high ticket guys coming out of the Latin markets are still too young and not close to the majors yet with this major spike in bonuses coming over the last few years. But the good thing with the high end guys they are so young and viewed in such a good light by scouts that they hold their prospect value for an long time even with extended poor play so you’re always sitting on a nice trade chip.
The Cardinals just signed three players who were born after my tenth birthday. Does not compute.
Scratch that, four players. Oy.
Since most of these players are signed at age 16, I would think that all of them can be characturized as “lottery tickets”. The difference between the ones that get the million(s) dollars bonuses versus the guys that the Cards signed for less than a million, is the difference between “U-pick” lottery tickets versus where you let the machine pick your ticket numbers.
Taking that analogy further each year after age 16 is the equivilent of knowing one of the correct numbers in the lotto drawing. Thus by age 20 if you know 4 or 5 of the correct numbers, you have a huge increase in your odds of holding a multi-millions dollar ticket. The problem is you buy the tickets at age 16, not 20. Nevertheless at age 16 I would rather have 5 tickets of unbelievably small odds of winning, than one whose numbers I got to choose.
P.S. The fact that Carlos Martinez was a year older due to the snafu with the Red Sox about his signing gave everyone a peek at one or two of his numbers and thus his lottery ticket was much more expensive and more likely to be a winner.
I like your analogy!
Another one I like: Before MLB cracked down on abuse of Latin American prospects by scouts, agents and trainers (kickbacks, etc.), a lot of the top prospects were shielded from competitive situations where teams could see how well their tools played in actual games. To me the equivalent would be the NFL drafting players based on a punt, pass and kick competition.
It’s different now because of the prospect leagues, but as Aaron pointed out above, teams are still guessing. They just have slightly more information now than they did a few years ago.
That analogy works pretty well, but I would tweak it to say that every year is like knowing whether or not a number on your ticket is correct or not rather than knowing a correct number, per se. Every year you have more information about each ticket, but not necessarily more information about the “winning” number combination.
Carlos Martinez was signed in March not July 2. The Cards can reserve budget to sign the next Martinez, if another pops up.
Considering the amount of money in a baseball economy, and the fact that these players are getting peanuts from that, I think the Cardinals should be one of the biggest spenders in the draft and international market each and every year. The Cards were late to this party, and still aren’t doing much to catch up at this point.
I’m slightly disappointed personally.
These 5 kids could have gotten bonuses that combine to approach $1MM. The birds will sign more Latin players this summer-winter.
Vision, I completely agree. The Cards have not done VERY MUCH to catch up. OBVIOUSLY they did very little signing Sanchez, Salas, Martinez and Taveras, along with the misfire on Mateo. They also CLEARLY have nothing else in the pipeline.
My question to you is can you name what other teams have had greater SUCCESS SINCE the Cards arrived at the party. The names of those teams escape me (I do not consider who signed players YESTERDAY as SUCCESS).
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/03/evaluating-international-signings-points-to-farm-system-health/
I get the sarcasm. It’a ok my friend, I have my opinion, and you feel differently.
No worries.
That was meant for Indiana, but it put it under the next response.