Midseason Standings Update
Posted on July 5th, 2011 by azruavatar in Memphis Redbirds, Palm Beach Cardinals, Quad Cities River Bandits, Springfield CardinalsAs the season rolls through the second half, here’s a quick look at the clubs standings in their divisions.
Memphis, 2nd of 4, .5 games back, .536 Win%
Despite having their best relievers plucked away from the team, Memphis is building their success entirely on their pitching staff which has the best ERA in the league. Starters PJ Walters, Adam Ottavino, Lance Lynn and Brandon Dickson were all a big part of the staffs ability to stay in the thick of games. Nick Additon has performed well since his promotion but the Cardinals will need their other starters to step up after the departure of Lynn and Dickson. While the team has also had some of it’s more prolific hitters (Mark Hamilton, Andrew Brown, Tyler Greene) stolen for parts of the season they need players like Nick Stavinoha, Pete Kozma and Bryan Anderson to start hitting.
Springfield, 4th of 4, 9.5 games back, .432 Win %
Springfield has played better than two of the teams in the other Texas League division but there is little denying that they’ve played poorly this year. They’re second in the league in batting OPS but dead last in ERA. Several starters have been bounced to the bullpen (Scott Schneider, David Kopp) and others have continued to struggle throughout the season (Michael Blazek, Kevin Thomas). The additions of Shelby Miller and John Gast are an attempt to shore up what has been, this year, a sub par starting rotation.
Palm Beach, 3rd of 6, 7.5 games back, .457 Win %
2nd to last in the entire league’s OPS, regulars Edgar Lara (.664 OPS), Luis Mateo (.478) and Ronald Ramirez (.465) have struggled badly at the plate. The rotation has been anchored by Joe Kelly and Eric Fornataro for the entire season with a plethora of impressive arms spending time in the rotation as well: Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, John Gast & Jordan Swagerty. Keith Bulter has been a lights out closer since his promotion.
Quad Cities, 3rd of 8, 5.5 games back, .550 Win %
With a better record on the road than at home, the River Bandits are a threat to win anywhere. Their first half performance has clinched them a spot in the Midwest League playoffs later this year. Much like Memphis and Palm Beach, the River Bandits are built on pitching with the league’s second best ERA. With Trevor Rosenthal consistently dominating A ball hitters all year, Boone Whiting, Carlos Martinez and Jordan Swagerty all have been impressive in their starts for the club as well. Relievers Justin Wright and Aidan Lucas have been solid performers out of the pen in combination with Keith Bulter (Palm Beach) and Boone Whiting (rotation) from the first half.
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Good write up AZ, it seems that the story of the system is our pitching prospects are great….. hitting prospects, the counter opposite.
What are your thoughts on Whiting…. is he a legit prospect or just a minor leauge guy?
Top 5??
1) Shelby
2) Cmart
3) Taveras
4) Adams??
5) Wong
Obviously I’ve had enough of ZCox….. hope he get’s moved with none of the guys I just mentioned along with maybe Rosenthal and someone else for Bell or Reyes(a man can dream right)
Zack Cox cannot be traded until a year after he signed his contract. Its the kids first year in pro ball and he’s in AA. It is way too early to give up on him.
I know this has been noted befire, but he could be part of a deadline trade as a PTBNL and then sent along after he’s accrued enough time.
A team isn’t going to want Cox as a PTBNL. The Cards may trade him as a primary next year. Why would a team give up someone siginficant and have the PTBNL who is really the primary still playin in a Cardinal uniform with the chance that he may get hurt.
then why ever do a ptbnl?
i’m sure there are contingency plans in these types of deals should the player get hurt. but, if the organization wants the player enough, they’d be willing to wait as opposed to having his accrued time get in their way.
nevertheless, this isn’t the point of my comment. when someone says he can’t be dealt because he must be in the organization for a year, it isn’t true. he could be a ptbnl.
Obviously the injury issue is a concern. However, since Cox would require a 40 man spot for any team acquiring him, Cox as a ptbnl is not a terrible idea. Regardless, I agree that it would be stupid to trade Cox this season; his trade value will go up with more experience, imo.
Other than last nights hiccup. Memphis has had a strong bullpen as well. Marte has a 1.8 ERA with a nasty slider and a fastball up to 95. Fick has been forced into a set up role and has responded with a 2.6 ERA with strong peripheral numbers. Six of his 21 walks have been intentional. leaving him with 41 innings 37 K’s 15 BB’s .209 average against and a 2.5 GO/AO. I think its time to start taking him seriously.
Todd and parise has been servicable as well. Todd just struggles with lefthanders, with the addition of rundles, that should really even out the pen. It seems like they’ve lost confidence in augenstein, having made the team ouf of spring training, I would expect him to be pitching in my high leverage situation.
My top 10 in the organization
1) Shelby Miller RHP Starter for AA
2) Carlos Martinez RHP Starter for High A
3) Matt Adams 1B Starter for AA
4) Joe Kelly – RHP Starter for AA (will be promoted this week)
5) Trevor Rosenthal – RHP Starter for Low-A
6) Zack Cox – 3B Starter for AA
7) Jordan Swaggerty RHP – Starter for High A (Bullpen for now to keep innings down)
8) John Gast – LHP Starter for AA
9) Oscar Taverez – OF Starter for Low-A
10) Boone Whiting – RHP Starter for Low-A
Solid list
Think we might need to add another name to that list. Kid pitching for Batavia by the name of Jose Almarante is 2-0 with a 1.45 era.
IMO, Tyrell Jenkins has to be in the top 10 somewhere. I think he could easily fit in the top five.
I second that!!
1. Shelby Miller
2. Carlos Martinez
3. Zack Cox
4. Oscar Taveras
5. Tyrell Jenkins
6 Trevor Rosenthal
7. Matt Adams
8. Kolten Wong
9. Ryan Jackson
10. Adron Chambers
I’m sorry but what has zack cox done this year to deserve 3rd best prospect in our system ? he has not been very good at AA at all and shown very little power this year. Add on a couple of scouting reports that are not very enthusiastic about his body and defense at 3rd base and it seems that we may have vastly overpaid cox with that Major league deal. I would say he is pressing to get in the top 10
Wll he was successful at high a which is more than what half the prospects on this list can say. Every scout says the jump to AA is the second hardest besides any jump to the majors. Give the kid a break it’s his first year in pro ball.
He just needs time to adjust to the talent level.
You’re a lot higher on our position prospects than anyone else – it’s pretty hard to come up with a Cards top 10 that only has 4 pitchers in it! Not high on Swagerty, Kelly or Cleto?
Wong really needs to be in the Top 10 somewhere.
Kelly at #4 is pretty ridiculous. Whilst I like the GB numbers, there are a bunch of younger guys at a similar level with a similar skillset who’ve had more success, Swagerty and Rosenthal in particular. In fact I’d probably put Kelly behind Tyrell Jenkins as well. Can’t really see Whiting in the top 10 either tbh. He’s been very impressive but his stuff is still a big question mark – looks like he might be another Casey Mulligan to me.
Whither Matt Carpenter?
Too early to put Wong in there…its gonna take time to see what he does
Despite the weaker records compared to last year I feel better about our system now than I have in a long time. When you consider all of the rookie eligible players who have helped the big club this year, Descalso, Cruz, Lynn, Sanchez, Craig and some of the lesser lights who’ve had cameos and then both the quality and depth of the prospects left in the minors, you have to be optimistic about the future. I did my top 20 for kicks and noted that some in the second ten are already contributing in the majors and some of the others have potential to be impact players. None of the top 20 were AAAA types a la Dickson, Walters, Hamilton et al. and they are well scattered in terms of ETA.
A good in depth look at our prospects….
1. Shelby Miller
2. Carlos Martinez
3. Zack Cox
4. Kolten Wong
5. Oscar Taveras
6. Joe Kelly
7. Tyrell Jenkins
8. Jordan Swagerty
9. Matt Adams
10 Maikel Cleto
11 Seth Blair
12 Trevor Rosenthal
13 Boone Whiting
14 Ryan Jackson
15 Adron Chambers
Some people forget its more about talent over pure stats and guys like Cox and Blair will still be loved by a major portion of the scouting world.
There’s no way you can put Wong and Jenkins higher than Adams, Cleto, Rosenthal, and Whiting. I know there is a potential vs. what they have actually shown in the minors balancing test, but Jenkins and Wong have like 10 games of minor league experience combined. Can’t qualify for the ranking yet.
Cox has struggled mightily in AA. That has to drop him. I am lower than him than others but his struggles this year have got to count for something. He can’t just remain #3 based on his draft spot. His minor league data has to factor in and that will drop him. How far? That’s certainly subject to debate. But #3 is way too high.
Blair has a 4.34 ERA, 49 Ks, and a 1.57 WHIP in 56 IP at Quad Cities. Boone Whiting has a 1.76 ERA, 70 Ks, 0.83 WHIP in 61.1 IP. Trevor Rosenthal has a 3.54 ERA, 83 Ks, and a 1.12 WHIP in 68.2 IP there. These guys are facing the same competition. Rosenthal and Whiting are showing something superior at Quad Cities. Blair has not so far. I would also rank Kevin Siegrist higher than Blair.
I have to agree here. Any WHIP over 1.50 is a red flag for me – especially for a guy that was supposed to be dominant (Blair). Jenkins is mostly hype for me at this point. He may well turn out great, but I will go with the players that have done it that I consider to still have further upside (Rosenthal & Whiting) over a kid that experts believe will be the second coming but hasn’t shown it yet. We will see where Jenkins is at the end of the season. I certainly have no problem putting Jenkins in the top 20.
I agree re: Blair; given his age I can’t see him making it and think he’s released in a year or two after Gary Daley-ing his way up the ladder a couple more rungs.
That said, I think you’re relying too much on stats/production and not enough on the actual abilities/tools of players. I think it’s perfectly acceptable to have Wong and Jenkins higher than guys like Whiting. Whiting has done well but he’s 22 next month and is still in A ball. He also relies heavily on deception and his secondary stuff, and has a very underwhelming fastball from what I’ve heard. He could be successful with that arsenal but there’s a rich history of polished players with slightly underwhelming stuff and limited projection who dominate the low minors only to top out when the hitters get better as they climb the ladder. Casey Mulligan put up a 0.50 FIP in QC and a 2.63 FIP in Palm Beach as a 22-year old in 2009, but he’s not on anyone’s top 10 list anymore (nor was he at the time IIRC). Just to be clear, I’m not writing Boone off (and I’m not throwing Rosenthal in with Whiting because he has far superior stuff IMO), I think he has a chance and could be a potentially good MLB reliever down the line, just that you have to take his production into context.
Most knowledgeable prospect mavens had Jenkins in our top 10 (and many of them in our top 5) when he was drafted, and although our system’s having a good year (especially on the pitching side) I don’t see that he can have fallen a great deal in the last 12 months.
Stats don’t mean anywhere near as much as people like to think. Casey Kelly had a 5.31 ERA last year and was still a Top-35 prospect and Boston’s #1 prospect, these guys jump into the top of ranking even before playing a game and Cox was the 62nd best prospects after 15 pro AB.
Speaking of the Red Sox lets revisit the Adrian Gonzalez trade based off stats:
.260 /.334/.480/.814 1B
.270/ .328/.377/.705 CF
5.31 ERA and 1.611 WHIP SP
.224/.299/.353/.652 MLB UT
By stats they got murdered but they got Boston’s #1. 3 and 6th best prospects 2 of which are Top-100 players this year, do you think SD would have took Adams, Rosenthal, Whiting and Nick Stavinoha in the same situation?
Well Boston’s former #1, Casey Kelly, is struggling in AA. I don’t think the Padres have been pleased with his season. 17 GS, 91.1 IP – 4.34 ERA and 1.456 WHIP. His K rate has fallen this year as well from 7.7 to 7.1. I guarantee you that means something to the Padres. Prospect rankings by the “experts” don’t mean a whole lot. Most of those 100 top prospects will not amount to “good” MLB players.
Stats do matter. You will NEVER progress in a minor league system…unless you actually…pitch or hit well. NEVER. So stats actually have a big importance in that respect.
In other terms, stats mean a lot in showing you what type of player they are and what, if you believe they translate, they can do. Like, let’s take Shelby Miller. Miller is throwing more Ks than IP. Tells you his stuff is electric and has good control. Means he likely has a good fastball with lots of velocity. He’s not a Westbrook type of pitcher. You can also infer given his rise in the system that his stuff for the most part is maturing.
Lynn is a special case. He just recently found an extra 3 mph on his fastball after years in the minors, which has now skyrocketed his potential. Lynn was always a steady, controlled pitcher but with throwing an average fastball of 94 mph instead of 91, he has looked great in the majors. Threw 4 straight Ks last night. I like him a lot now, though I did like him before even if he did struggle last year.
As I mentioned before, with prospect rankings there is always a potential vs. what they have actually shown in the minors balancing test. I think given that more than a supermajority of prospects never even see the majors that you can’t go off potential alone. I think it is simply foolish. If players based on their potential saw the MLB even half the time, fine. But that’s not the case.
Instead, you HAVE to figure in the minor league data. How they do professionally is greatly important. You never progress without doing well. You never develop…without doing well. You can never gain the respect of scouts, coaches, management, etc. without doing well. Finally, it is highly, highly unlikely you will succeed in the majors without doing well in the minors.
So if a player starts struggling in the minors for a prolonged time, that’s an automatic yellow, perhaps red flag. Have to drop Cox down in the rankings because he is not progressing well. #3 for a guy who is batting in the low .200′s in AA is kind of ridiculous. The system is far too talented to keep Cox where he is.
And like I said, Wong and Jenkins haven’t even played more than like 15 minor league games combined. As previously argued, minor league games mean a lot and there has to be some kind of service time requirement before you throw them in the rankings with minor league proven talent. It doesn’t make sense otherwise, unless you are assuming that raw talent and draft position equals minor league success, which simply is not true.
Not to be rude but almost everything you said here is totally wrong. If stats matter so much and you can only advance with them how does Pete Kozma have MLB time with a .238 career minor league average or how did Wainwright become a stud pitcher with a 4.78 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in Triple-A in over 40 starts?
If gamers played mattered why was out Top-10 prospects this year made up of
2. Zack Cox, 3b
3. Carlos Martinez, rhp
4. Tyrell Jenkins, rhp
8. Seth Blair, rhp
9. Jordan Swagerty, rhp
That’s half our Top-10 who threw 3 innings and took 15 AB in the US minors last year. Also Shelby Miller became a Top-50 overall and our #1 the year before after get hit around in 3 innings of work. Also I can no doubt assure you the Padres love that they have Casey Kelly in their system, do you think they would actually trade him for anyone in our system outside of M&M boys?
Lance Lynn had a 4.77 ERA last year with a 1.378 WHIP but was rated 6th in our system but by uses stats he shouldn’t even been in out Top-30 since we had 112 players post lower ERA’s in our system. Adams got absolutely no prospect love last year and he was 2nd in HR, RBI and BA of anyone with 250 AB or more and lead the organization in TB.
I am amazed at 2 things…….1)Giving up on Cox after, what, 100 ABs and less than 1 full year of pro ball. Do you really want to do that? And 2)Everyone has totally forgotten Matt Carpenter! Look at the guys OBP. He has so much disciplne at the plate. I think his power will increase as he fills out in the next few years(very slender). He is going to hit and if he can increase his power, you’re looking at an all star at 3rd base.
Kind of agree with you Jim… however… playing is playing. Cox was much herald due to his draft status. Has he come close to playing as he was expected, NO. Carpenter just plays. Nothing flashy about the guy and he puts up good numbers. I agree that he should be in the top 10. I have realized that, some do not take into consideration what a player has done as much as what they can do. Tommy Pham and DJ are prime examples. Both have talent and have shown it one season. At least Pham can say he has dealt with injuries. Can anyone remember that last time he played a full season?
Well, here’s my attempt. Adams fans will be glad to note that he’s made my top 10 for the first time. You’ll also see I’m a bit higher on Cleto (massive upside, regardless whether he ends up in the pen or rotation, and I can’t see how anyone can have him behind guys like Joe Kelly, who is fine but who will never be more than a 4th or 5th starter or a swingman in the majors) than most, likewise Matt Carpenter (I think he’s probably an average MLB 3B now, so he’s got to be ahead of guys like Cox and Wong who PROJECT as average MLB 2B/3B guys with a prevailing wind), and I think Tommy Pham is often seriously under-rated here but I knocked him down a little due to the wrist injury.
Not sure I’m totally sold on Taveras #3 either, I considered Carpenter and Cleto for that spot but I still like Oscar’s upside in a system more or less devoid of potential stars (outside of the top 2 and some other pitching talents). Swagerty’s probably falling in my eyes, too, since they moved him to the pen.
1. Shelby
2. C-Mart
3. Taveras
4. Carpenter
5. Cleto
6. Rosenthal
7. Wong
8. Cox
9. Jenkins
10. Adams
11. Swagerty
12. Pham
13. Kelly
14. Jackson
15. Chambers
16. Whiting
17. Greg Garcia
18. Ottavino
19. Reifer
20. Daryl Jones
I could probably happily argue for any of the guys in the 10-20 region to have pretty similar value. Still, it’s pretty cool looking at that list that I’d say there’s a full 20 players there (or at least 17 or 18) who have a chance of being average major league contributors, along with 3 or 4 potential stars.
I’d probably have Hooker in there too, actually, despite the down year. Maybe bump DJ Tools down to 21.
I think the thought is that they moved Swags to the Bullpen to keep his innings in check – so, I’m not sure that is permanent. Hooker seems like a decent pitcher, but looking at past stats his GO/AO is no head spinner. What kind of velocity does he have? My recollection is low 90′s. His SO-BB ratio is pretty good. Just wondered what makes you want to keep him in the top 20 given his AA results? Whiting may hit the same wall, but we won’t know until he gets there. I do know his reputation is silly smart and his preparation is off the charts. How far that will take him is anyone’s guess, but given what we know, I see Whiting ahead of Hooker.
Hooker’s STILL quite young for his level, and I’ve always (perhaps irrationally) been a bit of a fan of his. His curveball is a definite plus pitch, although his fastball (I believe he sits around 90, can maybe dial it up a bit higher than that) doesn’t seem to have come on much. I guess I’m not ready to give up on him yet, and tbh it’s hard to see how he’s terribly far behind a guy like Joe Kelly. Hooker’s a full year younger, and put up better numbers in A-ball last year than Kelly has this year.
I’d say Hooker’s high-A stats are probably due to being a bit lucky on flyballs (his HR rate seems low considering his flyabll rate), but his struggles this year can at least partly be attributed to a high HR/FB rate in a very tough hitting environment. He’s still a 21-year-old in his first dozen or so starts in AA, so he has time to right the ship, although I do realise that some here aren’t that high on his stuff, so I can readily accept that many would have him outside their personal top-20s.
Also worth bearing in mind that he’s younger than Whiting and started the year two levels higher. Also, Whiting (IMO at least) is bullpen-bound if he’s ever going to make it to the majors.
Jeez, I also forgot Gast (who would be in the 10-15 range), Additon (might shave in at about 20, or perhaps not, depending on my mood) and maybe even guys like Rahmatulla.
Lynn would obviously be fringey top-10 as well if we still consider him a prospect (I believe by the IP/GP criteria Eduardo Sanchez would also count, he’d be ANOTHER top 10-type). This is a DEEP system.
I think you could argue Luna and Castellanos as well, though they’re probably more 20-30 range for me (and I’m pretty high on Luna, I think. Possible 4th OFer).
If Tilson signs I guess he’s just outside the top 10.
That must have been hard for you to put Adams at #10. For all of your negativity against him, he still has value in your eyes. I’m impressed.
I would say “realism” rather than “negativity”. I’m still pulling for him to do as well as possible!
Clearly you missed the memo Monk! If you aren’t over the top positive then you must be negative and all minor league stats regardless or league, level or park factors will carry over into the majors even if its a place like Seattle or San Diego. All flaws are to be never talked about since they can easily be fixed and all other teams players suck and are overrated.
Would be curious to know what about Pham or Jones has them in your top 20. Pham can’t stay healthy. Had 40 strikeouts (28%) this year and only 18 walks before he went got hurt and Jones has disappeared.
Pham’s K/BB ratio is no worse than Matt Adams’. He’s a centerfielder who can field, and those sort of guys are massively valuable if they can hit at all. I think the power is probably mostly a Springfield mirage, but if/when he gets healthy I can see him ending up as something not far off a right-handed, streakier, faster Jon Jay. If we take his 300-odd PAs from Springfield as a whole (2010 and 2011) he has about a 25% K rate and a 12% BB rate, and a 140-odd wRC+, that’s pretty darn good for a CF, and comparable with the numbers Rasmus was putting up (admittedly as a younger, higher-ceiling player). He’s still 22 so hopefully he gets moved up next year to occupy the Shane Robinson role in Memphis.
Before he got injured he was legitimately a better prospect than Adams IMO. People here have to realise the difference between a CF who can field and a below-average 1B in terms of defensive value is MASSIVE. Like, 20-25 runs. Adams has to absolutely hit Pham off the planet in MLB to be a more valuable player. But Pham gets knocked down the list because of the wrist injury; looks like he’s out this year and it’s not certain how much power he’ll regain when he comes back, but I’m still pretty high on him, and think he’s a 4th OF at the very least, again health-dependent.