The farm went 3-1 on the night, while Memphis goes into the All-Star Break. Read on below!
- Let’s start it off with The Sting, Matt Adams (I should come up with a lame nickname each DFR for Matt). He was 1-3 with a double and walk. The Cardinals will have to make a trade to open up a spot for him in Memphis, but he’s ready.
- Daryl Jones was 2-3 in the 9th spot with a walk
- Eric Duncan hit 2-4
- Charles Cutler went 1-3 with a double and walk
- Ryan Jackson’s singled in the 9th to bring in the winning run
- John Gast was dominant after he struck out 9 over 7 scoreless innings. He gave up just 5 hits and 1 walk
- Every single Palm Beach hitter reached base, and Starlin Rodriguez started it off and went 2-4 with a double and walk. He also stole a base
- Edgar Lara was 1-4 with a double and 2 RBI
- Robert Stock hit 2-4 and is showing renewed life in Florida. His K% has dropped significantly from the past 2 years and he’s showing pretty good patience. He’s going to have to prove himself for the rest of the season, but there’s reason to stay optimistic.
- Domnit Bolivar hit 3-4 with 3 RBI
- Greg Garcia and Alan Ahmady both went 1-3 with a walk. Garcia was caught stealing
- Former, current, and future(?) Cardinal, Blaine Boyer, started the game and gave up 3 runs and struck out 2 in 1.2 innings
- Justin Smith got the win after he pitched 4 innings in relief. He gave up just 2 hits, an unearned run, and struck out 4
- Keith Butler pitched a perfect inning and struck out 2. He’s been one of the more impressive relievers in the farm with an ERA of .75 in 36 innings between Palm Beach and Quad Cities. He’s a pretty extreme flyball pitcher and has been relatively lucky with his BABIP and 0 HR given up, but he has 47 strikeouts in 36 innings and batters are hitting just .139 on him for the year.
- Kolten Wong led off and was 2-5. He’s showing good gap power and very good patience so far. If you’re a glass half empty kind of person, he was caught stealing for the 4th time tonight. If he continues hitting well through July, I’d love to see them promote him to Palm Beach in August.
- Oscar Taveras hit 2-3 with a double
- Cody Stanley was 2-4 with 2 RBI
- Michael Swinson finished 1-3 with a double and walk
- Anthony Ferrara was wild, despite giving up just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 innings. He walked 5 batters and struck out 4
- Nick Martini stole 2 bases and was 1-3 with a walk in the 9th spot
- Jordan Rasmus also stole 2 bases and finished 1-2 with a walk
- Joseph Bergman hit a solo-shot in the 7th and went 2-5 on the night
- Michael Maness continued to dominate the New York-Penn League but gave up his first earned run as a professional. That run was the only one he gave up in his 6 innings, as he walked none and struck out 3
Entries (RSS)
Adams walk was his 5th IBB and Jones’ also picked one up. Gast looked good even though he was a bit lucky to get the 0 as he gave up 2 hits with RISP but neither produced a run as Castellanos cut down a guy at the plate and Midland held a runner at 3rd from 2nd on a sharp hit ball.
Adams is a stud…He has produced at every level and I believe that is going to continue
Casey Rasmus threw out 3 guys attempting to steal against Batavia.
So, Rasmus was a net +5 in the running game. Anyway, two things…
1) is it Jordan or Casey?
and
2) It just occurred to me yesterday that the younger Rasmus is a catcher and for some reason I find that odd.
I didn’t know until I looked it up that his first name is Jordan and middle name is Casey. For some reason I thought all the Raz boys went by C names.
He goes by Casey. IIRC, his dad mentions the origin of his name in an interview here but I can’t listen to it at work. Follow the link about midway down.
Stock sure isn’t throwing them out, he got credit in the box score for a CS a few games back when it was a straight PO by the pitcher buts its been a while since he nabbed one legit.
Seems odd. Stock’s plus tool when we drafted him was supposed to be as a catch & throw catcher. Well, young JC Rasmus seems to possess a gun if the early stats are any indication.
What do you guys think about this new Colby Rasmus trade talk? Strauss mentioned SP from the Rays I would be up for something based around Rasmus and Lynn/Boggs/Motte for Jeff Niemann and Desmond Jennings.
There is no way they give up Desmond Jennings for all the gold in Fort Knox. Sorry, but that’s just wishcasting. Rasmus for Niemann wouldn’t be awful, if they really want rid of him, Niemann’s a solid guy who could become a #3 in the NL IMO, and he has three more years of team control. Still, it’s selling quite low on Colby, and I’d imagine the Rays would be more keen on a prospect than a guy who’s about to become quite expensive in the next 3 years.
I think they would be more inclined to listen than you do, They need some BP and OF help and a deal based off those players would fill both needs in the form of controlled players back helping this and future seasons. Strauss says Rays have had “long-standing interest” in Colby so the link is there and the Cards would be taking on most all of the risk in the deal.
If they need OF help they can just promote Jennings. He has a 135 wRC+ at AAA and is 24 years old. He’s ready for the majors, and will replace BJ Upton long-term. I think he’s got a fair chance of being as good as Rasmus going forward (better defense, K/BB ratio, more speed, likely considerably less power).
I just can’t see them trading their best long-term OF asset for a guy (Colby) who’s going to be quite expensive in a couple of years. I don’t know why they’d do that, especially when it’s pretty clear Jennings can make an impact right now and all twelve of their fans have been clamouring for him to be called up.
FWIW I’d trade Rasmus + Lynn/Boggs/Motte in a second for Niemann and Jennings, which is probably a pretty fair indication that the Rays would laugh it out of the building.
I actually wonder if a healthy Allen Craig might not have more interest for them – their needs are probably greater for a corner-OF type with pop, and obviously Craig probably demands a lower price from them in trade. I wonder if Craig + C-prospect couldn’t get Niemann. Although it’s true that, if they picked up Colby, they likely move him to LF.
I could see something like Rasmus + pitching prospect for BJ Upton + Niemann. Rasmus and Upton are roughly equivalent, ability-wise, except that Rasmus has three years of team control remaining, and Upton only has his last arby year (I believe) after this one. Niemann has 3 years of control left, and is probably going to be better than the guys we have in the high minors (like I said, I think he’s our #4 pitcher right now and could be better than Lohse next year), but he isn’t massively valuable, so something like 3 years of Colby + 6 years of (say) Swagerty or Cleto or something is probably ~ 1 year of Upton + 3 years of Niemann.
Still, not sure I’d do that as the guys who hate Rasmus aren’t going to enjoy Upton (he’s just as streaky a hitter and just as likely to get up the noses of the off-my-lawn brigade), and the rest of the deal feels a bit like treading water without making a major improvement. If we’re looking for a solid #3 pitcher we might as well just trade for one directly, without swapping Rasmus for equivalent pieces in the OF just because some people dislike him.
They clearly need OF help and have for a while but still haven’t called Jennings up even with him adding power this year so something is amiss there. The odd thing about it Rasmus is younger than Jennings and we have no true proof if Jennings will reach his potential either.
Jennings is out for the next couple of weeks plus with a broken finger, as of this past Sunday.
They have needed OF help since before Sunday Fuld over the last 51 games has a OPS of .517 and Ruggiano hasn’t hit since getting more playing time with a 389 OPS the last 3+ weeks.
I would set tight and not make any trades till at least the end of the month. We’re tied for 1st and are just now getting everyone back healthy. Let’s give it a chance to work with what we have now. Don’t like the idea of trading any of our young prospects.
Do the Rays need another outfielder? I thought they were looking at flipping BJ Upton.
With a Sam Fuld posting a line of .227/.291/.350/.641 this year despite those electric first 3 weeks when he was on fire I would say they do.
My bad those above was his LF numbers his overall line is .238/.299/.351/.650
That was my thought. I’d think they’d have to send an OF back to us or have deal with one (Upton to Nats?) going somewhere else. I think the Braves may be a more logical fit for both sides if they are serious about moving him. None of the Rays relievers interest me in the least so I would have to get a SP back in that deal plus prospects I could move for a reliever else where. If you move Rasmus you have to fill two holes or it just isn’t worthy it. Jay can play a better defensive CF but we saw last year what happen when he was exposed on an every day basis so that is a concern at the plate.
I would throw up if we gave up Rasmus and Lynn/Boggs and only got Jeff Niemann and a prospect. Rasmus is young, cheap, and has hit well (though not particularly well this year) and you can see his upside easily.
Cards should either go for a minor trade or stand pat. I’d much rather bank on K-Mac pulling out his recent rut than sacrifice good talent. Lynn looks like a world beater in the pen. Trading him would detract heavily from the pen, even if K-Mac replaced him.
Offense is great. Bullpen is good. Rotation has some kinks but I think K-Mac showed his recent slide is over and he’s still going to be just fine in the rotation. Lohse is a bit worrisome but I would not give up Rasmus to try to plug a #4 hole (regardless if that’s a #3 starter to slide someone back to #4). Westbrook is garbage this year but hey, he’s a #5 starter. He won’t be in the postseason anyways.
You would throw up if we got a former #4 overall selection who would thrive in our division at same price range as Colby and The 20th rated prospect in the Midseason Top 50? The chances are slim it would even happen and with us likely dealing a 3rd lesser guy but you would vomit up on just a 2 for 2 deal?
What does his former draft position have anything to do with the discussion?
Kind of a non sequiter.
Niemann is a good #4 starter, if he’s healthy. But the team doesn’t need a #4 starter.
Jennings is an unknown who has done jack diddly in the majors. Didn’t look great in his first cup of coffee last year either. Rasmus is a known quantity and it is easy to see him being very good in the majors. I don’t know Jennings defense but Rasmus has finally (thank god) looking good in the field now. He’s taking better routes to the ball, stopped being lazy, and his arm looks SO much better.
Lynn looks like a beast. So you want to trade a high upside guy who is holding his own in the majors and a beast in the pen (potentially a cheap starter as soon as next year) for a #4 starter who has been hurt this year and a prospect who is highly ranked but hasn’t done anything at the major league level.
Pass. No thanks. I’ll keep what’s working and hope Rasmus busts out of his slump.
I guess it depends on hiw you value that known quantity. Some people see that quantity and don’t think it is very high. As far as Rasmus’ defense, did you watch the last few games before the break?
btw, I’ve never been a huge Jennings fan.
I did watch most of the last 10 games. I know there was one game where Colby played poorly in the field but I don’t didn’t see that as a trend.
I just think generally he is taking better charge since Lance Lynn’s 1st start where he just deferred to Craig and let the ball bounce for a ground rule double. His arm just looks a lot better generally. He actually throw home without it bouncing, which is a remarkable improvement because that takes like 3 bounces for him normally.
This is a classic case of our players are better because they are our players. Miller and Martinez are unknown and done Jack in the majors either but you don’t want to deal them now do you? Heck for that matter you call Adams untouchable and he;s not even in the same realm as a player like Jennings.
Miller and Martinez are dominating the majors. I have seen it throughout the entire season. They are easily projectable good pitchers in the majors. That’s what I know.
Jennings I don’t know as well. He’s found some more power this year but he had a down year last year, isn’t a .300 BA hitter in the minors the last 2 years, and his OPS in AAA hasn’t even broke .830. I’m sure he’s highly touted and what not. I could be completely wrong about him. But he’s not exactly dominating. And in his first cup of coffee, he didn’t exactly impress. 17 games is short but not super short. Just saying, he has a lot more to prove to me.
Adams, you’re right, he’s not in the same realm as Jennings. Jennings might have more “projectable talent” but that’s speculation. I’ll tell you what I do know. Adams is a power hitter for average machine. There are only TWO arguments against Adams and both are ridiculous.
1. He wasn’t drafted highly and no one had heard of him before this year so he must not have projectable talent. This is a dumb argument. His draft position and the fact that no one paid attention to him in A ball means nothing. NEXT.
2. He doesn’t walk a lot. I’m not going to rehash the whole argument here. I’m just saying, when your ONE argument based on his hitting is not focusing on the fact that he is hitting over .350 and has 19 homers and 62 RBIs in 262 ABs but rather his walks, I think you should reflect for a moment. Think about what means more for a hitting prospect. Walks the #1 thing? No, far from it. BA, OBP, SLG%, homers, RBIs, RISP #s. These are the most important categories. Does Adams have them all? You betcha. And he’s only striking out twice for every walk. That’s not bad at all.
Not going to comment on this other than make a general point – you do your arguments a disservice when you rely on entirely spurious non-stats like RBIs and #s with RISP. I also think it would be instructive to pay a bit more attention to defense – Jennings is a very good fielding CF, from what I’ve heard, which is worlds apart from playing a passable 1B.
I was not making a point of comparing Adams with others on RBIs and #s with RISP. I agree that comparing players regarding RBIs and #s with RISP can be misleading because one player not have the opportunities and possibly other factors.
However, RBIs and #s with RISP are good factors in showing whether a player is a run producer or not when they have the kind of numbers Adams does. Shows he is power hitter. Shows he is a run producer. Shows he is clutch. So I don’t think you can just ignore what Adams is doing. He’s helping his team win ball games and that matters.
Unknown??? Really… Really… Really….Really….
Its people like you that think trading Guys like Chris Perez was a great move.
You shouldn’t post unless you have read the whole thread and understand the context of what was said.
Also, Desmond Jennings was ranked by MLB.com in 2010 as the #6 prospect. #6 pre-2010 by Baseball America as well. I don’t know who your “Midseason Top 50″ is from, but it seems likely they were much higher than #20 last year. Baseball America listed him 14 rankings down in their pre-2011.
This all doesn’t mean much, but I’m just trying to show you that it’s not like the scouts are pouring all over Jennings saying he’s the next big thing.
I’m not that high on Jennings either, btw, I think he’s going to be an above-average CF but not a star. Still, 6 cheap years of an above-average CF is nothing to sneeze at. So far, Colby has merely been an above-average CF. I’d say 6 cheap years of Jennings is probably at least as valuable as 3 arby years of Rasmus, but I can see it all depends very much on the eye of the beholder.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/midseason-top-50-prospects-list/
If Scouts didn’t like Jennings he wouldn’t be ranked the 9th best position player prospect in baseball right now would he?
And he was ranked higher than the 9th best position player prospect last year by BA and others. That was due to his .756 OPS in AAA last year and his dismal bat in his first call-up last year.
He’s gained some power, gotten his OPS above .800 in AAA. Not world beater numbers but commendable. He’s got a lot to prove though.
New guys come along every year and just because a talents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado gets picked or other Top-100 talent has breakout years doesn’t mean you aren’t a good prospect.
BA has Martinez as the 6th best RHP in the rankings but if all the draft guys sign then he will fall to 9th best, did he become a lesser prospect all of a sudden withoput even throwing a pitch? Clearly the answer is no.
Colby had a .742 OPS in Triple-A and you like him, people who base prospects on black and while numbers will never be any good at projecting talent, IF we had Jennings you would be talking about how you can’t wait to see our top position prospect and how he’s untouchable but since we don’t he likely will never make it
I do like Colby. I thought his call-up was premature though. He had to do a lot of growth in the majors his first year. He barely hit over .250 and his OBP was barely over .300. His overall offensive numbers were I believe below the average starting CF player.
He corrected a lot of that last year by expanding his zone and taking some hacks. The consequential costs was a much elevated strikeout count. I think Colby is trying to make adjustments again this year, which is leading to his struggles.
I think numbers are still the best indication of possible major league success you’ll ever get. No player gets a merit call up if they are struggling. And most good MLB players, not all but most, did very well in the minors.
Again, you’re totally ignoring defense. If (and I do mean “IF” because I have no horse in this particular race and no particular partisan interest in Jennings, in fact, I’d say without ever having seen him play that he looks somewhat over-rated as a prospect) he can OPS .800 in the major leagues with plus defense in CF he will be one of the best players in baseball. An .800 OPS CF (with an apparently transferable hitting skillset and plus-plus speed) is worlds apart from, say, a first baseman or DH, for whom an .800 OPS is nothing special.
Jennings and Adams play different positions. Jennings plays a position where good defense is essential. Adams plays a position that most consider above average defense a “plus.”
I’ll take a monster hitter and average defense at 1B than a good hitter and above average defense at CF. Some would say Pujols is closer to an average defender because he makes a lot of bone head moves on defense. I know he does but I still think he is an average defender. All I’m saying is even if Pujols defense was average, no one would still contend that a speedy CF has more value than Pujols.
No, I’m not saying Adams will be Pujols. I’m just saying that if Adams mashes anywhere close to what he’s doing now in the majors, then his value is going to be tremendous.
Yep, I take your general points – it can’t be denied that Adams is absolutely mashing this year, and obviously Pujols is one of the all-time greats.
All I’m saying is that I think you consistently fail to recognise the massive offensive demands of playing 1B (and the fact that SS and CF can be very valuable even if they’re only averagey hitters), and the fact that a 1B simply has to hit a huge amount better than a CF to be worth the same amount. This is why Ryan Howard, despite the huge contract and national media presence, is a demonstrably worse player than Shane Victorino, who isn’t quite as good a hitter, but who plays a massively more demanding defensive position, and plays it pretty decently.
What I’m saying is – if Desmond Jennings OPSes anywhere close to .800 in the majors, he’s almost certain to be an excellent player, and almost certain to far exceed Matt Adams’ worth.
Not sure how this thread ended up on Adams again – I think it’s an unwritten rule that every FR post has to end up with a lengthy Matt Adams conversation this year :-).
Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league. When he’s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he’s an absolute beast. To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.
Howard hasn’t quite been that player the last two years. Still good but not producing at 2006-2009 levels.
Adams doesn’t have the power of Howard. Heck, almost no one in the league outside of Jose Bautista and maybe Adam Dunn does. But Adams doesn’t strike out like Howard or Dunn. Adams also has shown a lot in terms of average.
All I’m saying is that if Adams ever put up a .300+/25+/100+ stat line in the majors, that it would take a heck of a lot, even for a CF, to beat that. Only 13 players last year had 100+ RBIs and of them only 6 had a BA .290 or better. Not saying Adams puts that up, but if he ever did, Jennings would have to be like a prime Grady Sizemore or Juan Pierre to be close.
And yeah, lots of arguments about Adams because he is a side issue to one of the biggest issues in Cardinals history: What happens with Pujols?
If Pujols is gone, what’re the backup options? Adams is part of that discussion so that’s why we all get so worked up over him. If you don’t believe in him, then you’re worried that the club might consider Adams an option. If you do believe in him, you’re worried he might get traded anyways or the Cards might go a different direction and block him.
“Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league. When he’s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he’s an absolute beast. To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.”
In your or my biased eyes, perhaps. I prefer to recourse to the stats.
See here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorino-is-better-than-ryan-howard/
or in fact, just look at their respective values in recent seasons:
Howard:
2008: 3.0 WAR
2009: 4.6 WAR
2010: 1.3 WAR
2011: 1.2 WAR
Total: 10.1 WAR
Victorino:
2008: 4.7 WAR
2009: 3.6 WAR
2010: 3.7 WAR
2011: 4.4 WAR
Total: 16.4 WAR
So, frankly, it’s not even that close. Victorino is better. Factually better.
YET AGAIN, you’re totally ignoring defense. Howard is a bit of a butcher at 1B, Victorino a competent CF. Even though Howard’s a slightly better hitter, that makes a huge difference in their value. That’s not even taking into account the fact that Howard is a horrible baserunner and Victorino is good (which is incorporated into the WAR figures), and the fact that Howard has an appalling platoon split and can be neutralised by LOOGYs in high-leverage ABs (which isn’t). It should also be noted that Howard has significantly more PT and PAs over this timespan. Also, Howard’s older and on the downward slide of his career IMO, and has a skillset and body type that tends to age pretty badly. Going forward he’s likely to be trailling Victorino by an even greater margin.
Again, I strongly suggest you rethink your attitude as regards the value of different positions on the defensive spectrum, and the fact that you seem to hugely over-rate slugging-type 1B/DH guys and more or less ignore defense and positional adjustments. Again, this is no knock on Adams (who i think could be almost as good a hitter as Howard, and who I’m warming to as a possible long-term answer at 1B), but just pointing out in a friendly way perhaps that you might be looking at things the wrong way; if you genuinely believe Howard is a much better player than Victorino you’re not necessarily in the minority of casual fans, but you’re way off the mark.
JBCardsFan:
“I would throw up if we gave up Rasmus and Lynn/Boggs and only got Jeff Niemann and a prospect. Rasmus is young, cheap, and has hit well (though not particularly well this year) and you can see his upside easily.”
Rays fan:
“I would throw up if we gave up a guy who’s been a league average starter for the last two years plus one of the top 20 prospects in baseball (who profiles as an above-average CF for the next 6 cheap years) for three increasingly expensive years of an underachieving young CF and a bullpen arm”
Just depends how you look at it, I guess.
I guess so. Whoever this Rays fan is, I don’t think he knows what a “league average” center fielder is. Colby was one of the best offensive CF players last year. He had a .850+ OPS, which is very good.
These labels like “Top 20 prospects in baseball” really need to be scrapped. It doesn’t mean ANYTHING. Guys rise and fall all the time. Pujols wasn’t even considered one of the top prospects in the Cards system when he came into the majors. Matt Bush was a former #1 draft choice.
Generally, when scouts are close to unanimous about a guy’s potential, that’s something to consider. But it doesn’t translate to automatic good play in the majors. Not even close. So unless it’s like a close to real clear thing, I’d rather keep the major league talent that’s working and keep the prospects the Cards have in the system.
Lynn’s also a beast. He’s a bit of an unknown but equipped with a newly found fastball sitting at 93-94 instead of 90-91, he looks beastly. His slider is also a really wicked pitch. I’d rather keep that talent, especially since just a few weeks ago everybody in Cardinals nation was complaining about the pen.
So Martinez for Bell is a good trade from that perspective, Carlos is a meaningless Top 20 and you always have the TNSTAAPP aspect on top of it. Deal that meaningless title and get a guy who has converted 91% of saves in his career and 95% the last two years and get back 2 players in compensation who have a chance to rise.
Also For the record Pujols was the 42nd best prospect in baseball when he made his debut and that was all off one year a 2nd year in minors he would have one of if not the best.
No, acquiring prospects and trading prospects are different. Both are unknown risks. But when you are trading known talent for unknown talent, you have to make dang well sure you know you are getting something that you feel very sure about. There is a high level of confidence you need.
However, when trading prospects, you could be giving up a lot. Especially if the prospect is dominating the minors. So when receiving known talent, the inquiry is that what you are getting will reasonably be better than what the prospect will translate into. Or in the rental scenario, you don’t care about the prospect’s talent ceiling, you just want good known talent now.
I don’t want to deal known talent for prospects when the known talent is performing well. Especially when Rasmus ceiling is likely higher than Jennings anyways. I think the scales usually tip in favor of keeping known talent given the risks.
I don’t want Bell either because Bell won’t upgrade the pen. Salas is doing as good a job as Bell and Salas in the 8th inning doesn’t improve us because Lynn/Boggs/Sanchez are right there with Salas in terms of talent.
As for Pujols as the 42nd best prospect still wasn’t an accurate assessment by the scouts now was it? I look at prospect labels more about who’s moving up and who’s moving down than “This guy is the #15 prospect in baseball.” That carries some indication he’s going to be great because all but 14 of the other hundreds of minor league players in the high minors (AA and AAA) have less of a chance to be great in the majors than him. It’s doubtful that is the case. Jennings slipped in 2011. Miller and Martinez though are skyrocketing in terms of their prospect statuses because they’re dominating.
Just saying, let’s cool with it with rankings. I’ll go off more direct evidence like stats and scouting reports before I look at evidence like he’s highly rated.
How is it different a Top-20 prospect has the same chance to pan out with us as he does in Tampa. Colby is gone in 3 years regardless if he reaches or fails to reach his potential and the longer he goes without the uptick he is losing trade value as his controlled time is passing.
Your Bell reasoning is flawed and wrong, he upgrades any pen in all of MLB and the more good arms you have the better off you are. Yes it was a good assessment to put him 42nd after one year, if he played another he would have been higher.
Scouting reports is how you get ranked high, its about scouting talent minor league stats don’t mean you are going to be good in the majors and fans get too worked up over them, I live in Missouri so Springfield is my favorite team in the system, tonight they scored a tons of runs and everyone padded their stats but every guy they faced were terrible does those numbers off guys everyone is hitting in a hitters park mean they are going to hit Roy Halladay?
Why is Colby gone in 3 years? That is pure speculation. I think if Colby finds his swing he gets locked up to a long-term extension. Assuming Tony doesn’t convince Johnny Mo to trade him.
Salas is 5-2, 16 for 18 in save chances with a 2.25 ERA. Is Bell going to be better than that? Bell is 26 for 27. But Bell also has 3 losses to his credit. Way I see it, I don’t see where Bell is going to be better than what Salas has done. Sure, Bell has better stuff but who cares? Salas has better stuff than Franklin ever did and just last year Franklin was one of the best closers in the NL. No, I was not a supporter of Franklin this year so please don’t mischaracterize my position. I’m saying you don’t have a 96 mph fastball to get the job done. Salas isn’t just smoke and mirrors. He has 44 Ks to his 44 IP. In fact, Bell only has 27 Ks to his 37 IP. Salas also has a .86 WHIP. So who has fooled batters more? Looks like Salas.
So the only way I see an upgrade, since Salas has done a bang up job as closer, is Salas as setup man is an upgrade right? Like the Brewers are with K-Rod. Well that’s not the case. Simply isn’t. Sanchez, if healthy, is ridiculously good and might be the long-term closer. Boggs has done a great job. Lynn might become the best of them all with what he is showing with a 94 mph sitting fastball and a slider that makes me cringe. So I don’t see the benefit.
Scouting reports are important. But you don’t get good scouting reports if you don’t hit or pitch well. Simple as that. As for Adams and Springfield, you ignore that Adams had a great season in A ball last year. You also ignore that this isn’t just a case of stat boosting by being in a hitter’s league. He’s one of the KINGS of the Texas League. Not everybody hit a grand slam last night. MATT ADAMS DID! Everybody in the Texas League plays pretty much the same talent, the same pitching. Adams might be the best in the Texas League though.
There’s the difference. Not saying he’s going to have a 1.000 OPS in the majors. I’m saying though that people hitting over a 1.000 OPS and nearly 20 homers in less than 275 ABs doesn’t grow on trees. Adams has A LOT to prove. Every minor leaguer does, even those top 20 prospects. But I don’t think you can dismiss Adams based on his body of work.
Colby will be in Atlanta the first chance he gets on the open market, Even if Salas never gives up a run for the rest of his career the BP would still be upgraded with Bell.
Talent speaks louder than Stats, if stats meant you would be a good big league player then we would need to about 30 more teams because every team in the minors has several guys who post good looking stats every year and never get a shot in the majors.
“I don’t want Bell either because Bell won’t upgrade the pen. Salas is doing as good a job as Bell and Salas in the 8th inning doesn’t improve us because Lynn/Boggs/Sanchez are right there with Salas in terms of talent.”
I’m sorry, but again that’s just taking the homerism to asinine levels. I don’t want Bell in any way, and I’d hate us to trade anything meaningful for him, but he’s been legitimately one of the top 5 or 6 relievers in baseball for the last 3 years, and will continue to put up excellent numbers for the remainder of the year. He’s legitimately better than every pitcher in our bullpen, and I really can’t see any cogent argument to the contrary of that. What he also is, however, is severely over-valued and likely over-paid in future, so I really want no piece of that when we have bigger holes to fill.
See my above argument for fuller discussion. But just want to say that Bell is not an upgrade over Salas in the closer role. Salas has pitched more, has a MUCH lower WHIP (Bell pitches in a pitcher’s park), more Ks, lower ERA and less losses. Bell has more saves and has only one blown one save opportunity. But Salas has been just as good if you look at the numbers. It is very hard to see him as an upgrade.
So if you move Salas to the pen, does that improve the pen? Is he going to be a great improvement over Boggs/Lynn/Sanchez? Perhaps a bit but may not be. Lynn looks like a world beater. Sanchez, if healthy, will likely continue to be gang busters. And Boggs has done a bang up job as well.
So tell me where Bell significantly upgrades the pen?
Bell significantly upgrades the pen because he has a long and proven track record (something you seem keen on in other discussions) of out-performing those guys. Salas has a 2.73 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, both of which are excellent, but I think if you’ve seen him in both the majors and minors, you’d presumably agree that this is his peak – I don’t see any way he gets better than this; his stuff is good-but-not-great, he’s striking out major league hitters at similar rates he put up in the high minors, and I don’t see him bettering a 2BB/9 walkrate. Also, he’s giving up quite a few flyballs. Don’t get me wrong, Salas is excellent, has exceeded expectations, and hopefully will be pretty good in future. I’m just saying that this is as good as he’s ever going to be.
Bell has a 2.55 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, which is easily his worst season of the last three. His K rate is well down on his career norms, but this might just be a small sample size effect – his swinging strike rate is down a bit, but it’s not far off what he’s done the last couple of years so you’d expect the K’s to increase a bit as the year goes on. There’s a fair argument that Salas has been better than Bell this year, although if I had to bet which of the two would be better for the rest of the year, I’m saying Bell. ZiPS projects a 2.53 FIP the rest of the way, which jives with what he’s done the last two years, i.e. an elite reliever.
Boggs and Lynn have been great this year, but they’ve not thrown a lot of innings and their production thus far has massively out-stripped anything they’ve done previously. Sanchez is injured; I absolutely love his stuff and think he’s going to be a beast long-term but I’m not sure what else we get out of him this year. Shoulder injuried are funny things. If you think Bell isn’t likely (not certain) to pitch better than them for the rest of the year, well, I don’t know what to say really. You’re just factually wrong.
Again, I’m in no way arguing for Bell. The right-hand side of the pen is not a major weakness this year, and he’s an expensive, marginal upgrade. But to argue that he’s not an upgrade because Lance Lynn has struck a bunch of guys out swinging wildly at fastballs in like 6 innings in the majors seems, as I said, a bit of homerism.
So what if this is as good as Salas will ever be? The inquiry then becomes whether you expect him to falter. I don’t. You might. It’s a little less than a sure thing but I have no indication he’ll falter.
Bell is an elite reliever. Not doubting that. But Salas has been an elite reliever as well. Bell has no post-season record so this argument by others (not saying you, but others) that Bell would have more composure in October is pure speculation.
Boggs has thrown 33 IP in 29 games. That’s not a small sample size. He’s worked plenty of games.
You say that I’m factually wrong that Bell will upgrade the pen but then you literally say “he’s an expensive, MARGINAL upgrade.” Exactly. I’m sure he offers a bit more to the pen but nothing that is substantially certain.
Lynn has worked 21 IP, not 6 IP. In relief he’s worked 11 IP. He’s struck out 23 Ks overall, 15 Ks as a reliever. We’re starting to give way to the “small sample size” and seeing the sustained effort. I’m a believer in Lynn given his stuff. It’s not just the fastball, he also has a hella wicked slider.
33 and 21 IP are tiny sample sizes. Pretty much anyone can look awesome in that period (again, no knock on Boggs or Lynn – both are probably, in my mind, pretty good pitchers going forward).
All that said, and semantics aside, I think we’re both agreed – Bell would be a marginal, expensive upgrade, and neither of us want him. I think we’re more or less on the same page here :-).
“I guess so. Whoever this Rays fan is, I don’t think he knows what a “league average” center fielder is. Colby was one of the best offensive CF players last year. He had a .850+ OPS, which is very good.”
I didn’t say “league average”. I said it would basically not be unreasonable for a Rays fan to frame Rasmus as “an underachieving CF”, which probably isn’t utterly unreasonable. He’s been basically a 3 WAR/yr player since being called up. Definitively above-average but he’s not yet hit his ceiling. Due to his youth, I’m guessing that he turns into a superstar at some point in the next 3-4 years but it’s possible he’ll never really figure it out and merely enjoy a career as an above-average player. Which is perfectly good to my eyes, but some fans seem to really dislike the guy (JD Drew comparisons are somewhat reasonable, I think, although I would argue that Drew probably has more or less lived up to his potential, despite being a bit injury-prone).
FWIW I’d swap Rasmus and any of those other pitchers mentioned for Niemann and Jennings, as I said, but I don’t think the Rays would go anywhere near that deal so it’s probably a moot point, and I’d contend that perhaps if you think that’s an awful deal that you’re looking at it with overly Cardinals-tinted spectacles (the point I was trying to make with the slightly facetious “Rays Fan” post above).
Lynn’s been ultra impressive so far and might have a career as a set-up guy if he can’t make it in the rotation, but that doesn’t yet wipe out the memories of one and a half very mediocre years at AAA for me. I think the 5th starter spot might be his to lose next year, and it’s still far from a known quantity as to how he’ll do in the rotation (although I’d settle for him merely continuing to dominate in the pen, I think!).
I think we have some other back and forths going so I’ll keep this real short. Just want to say you can’t penalize Lynn for those non-world beater AAA seasons because Lynn was a different pitcher then. Since then, Lynn has gained 3 mph on his sitting fastball, which is a real difference maker.
I’m not convinced he has. He lit up the gun IIRC at the end of last year after making some mechanical adjustments, and has been utterly mediocre again this year, putting up near-identical numbers. Also, I’m sure I’ve heard some first hand evidence he’s been sitting around 91, 92 in AAA as a starter this year as opposed to the 95+ he can apparently hit when he digs back for his 4-seamer. I think the velocity we see in the pen (and I don’t think he’s hit more than 95 in the pen, either) is just the typical 2-3 mph gain you see in just about EVERY pitcher when they move from the rotation to the pen (we’ve seen the opposite from KMac this year, for instance – going from a 91-ish mph fastball to 88/89 in the rotation).
Like I say, I think sorting out his mechanics might’ve lead to some velo increases, but I’m not sure it’s quite as stark a picture as some people have been painting, according to fangraphs he’s averaging 92.3mph out of the bullpen this year with his heater, which doesn’t jive with the heavy velocity increases that’ve been claimed. He does have a lot of movement on his fastball though, which has impressed me a lot, and like I say I think he has a future as a set-up guy or perhaps a 5th starter, but those sort of guys are fairly fungible and not (IMO) massively valuable. He might end up as good as Niemann, though, so from that POV it’s probably fair to question trading those two!
I really liked what I saw of Bergman when I saw Batavia play last summer – anyone know much about him?
I do know he is 23 and in his second year of rookie ball. Doesn’t mean he can’t make it but it makes what was already a long shot much further yet still.
Of course there have been rumors for some time now that the Rays do not really think that much of Jennings and the fact that they have not brought him up yet when it appears they have room for him in left field has provided additional grist for this type of speculation. But of course if the rumors are true and the Rays would really be willing to trade him then buyer beware.
Why does there need to be a trade to make room for Adams? Can’t the Cards just release Stavinoha and then call up Adams? Move Hamilton to the outfield or bench during that time. Seems simple enough to me.
You make room for Adams. Stalling him is not wise or even healthy as he could stagnate. The fact he isn’t already up at Memphis makes me think the Cards are intentionally keeping him in AA to keep up his trade stock. Hope the Cards don’t make a dumb move and give away Pujols insurance for pennies.
You make a good point about releasing Stavi as a way to make room for Adams @ AAA but I wouldn’t exactly classify his situation in AA as stagnation. He completely skipped high A and is 22 years old playing at AA. If we are trying to showcase Adams for a trade, then I can see pushing him to AAA soon otherwise I don’t see why there should be a rush.
I said he “could” stagnate. Didn’t say he is or even will.
Pushing him to AAA is the right move in my opinion but if he doesn’t succeed immediately at AAA, those who are unsure about him will quickly seize on that and his trade value will lower. I don’t want Adams to be trade bait and I would rather just see him get called up to AAA.
Stavinoha contributed a bit to the Cards. Wasn’t really good but he doesn’t have a place in the future, not even as depth. Too many good outfielders ahead (Holliday, Jay, Craig, Berkman, Rasmus, Brown) and behind (Taveras, Castellanos). He deserves our thanks but should be released.
I agree, FWIW, that Adams should be challenged at a higher level, but the jump between AA and AAA is not as big as the jump he’s already made (from QC to Springfield) and he’s only had a couple of hundred PAs so it doesn’t seem that bad to keep him down a little longer. It’s possible they want him to work on some aspects of his game (defense, for instance?) and feel that AA is the best envrionment for that.
I agree that Stavinoha’s time has come to an end, but I guess the concern is that, with Brown, Luna and Hamilton all vying for spots in the OF, promoting Adams is more likely to mean the end of Hamilton, who (I think) still might have a bit of value to the club.
I respect your views but I like to be more aggressive. When you have an elite talent like Adams who has just utterly dominated a level of the minors in over half a season, you promote him. Keeping him has no real benefit as essentially he’s not growing and could even stagnate because he could overexert himself or let it go to his head.
Scouts say that the “A ball to AA” jump is the second hardest, but there are plenty of good players in AA who flunk AAA. In fact, most of them do flunk because most AAA players don’t make the majors.
AAA will be a test for Adams. He has to not only pass it but dominate. And he needs to do it quickly so the Cards know what they have in him come this offseason. Preferably, I wanted him already in AAA so he had the opportunity to show 2 months of domination at AAA and get put on the 40 man roster in September for a cup of coffee.
I’m worried about Pujols. Yeah, he’s looked better recently. But he’s getting older and you cannot write off 2.5 months of sub .280, sub .800 OPS play. He’s still on pace for his first sub 100 RBI season and his table setters have been better than some of his past seasons. We’ll see how it shakes out but $25+ mil and 6+ years is too much for me.
Also, Hamilton has to play the outfield otherwise he will be worthless. If Pujols is signed, he’ll never play 1B. If Pujols is not signed and Adams is kept, Adams is going to leap frog him very, very soon. He’s not going to make the club as a backup 1B. So he has to play the OF or he literally has no realistic value.
I’m stumped by anyone’s interest in Niemann. His ERA+ is really rather poor this year, at just 80—and wasn’t much better last year, at 89. Those are marginal for even a #5 starter, on a contending team. To me Niemann shouldn’t even be acquired straight-up for someone like Motte.
Jennings is interesting, for sure, but I’d rather stick with Colby and live with the streakiness, than make any money-tainted trade.
On an unrelated note, very nice to see Oscar Taveras getting his groove back (three multi-hit games in his last five, with three doubles & a trio of walks as well). The slash line is up to .359/.401/.500, compared to the MWL average of .248/.323/.369. Oscar’s the 2nd-youngest guy in the Midwest League with an OPS over .815…and I’ve got a feeling Oscar’s gonna keep pushing that BA back towards .400. :)
ERA+ is kinda a crappy stat. Niemann is playing in the toughest league in baseball and facing the RedSox, Yankees and Jose Bautista week in and week out. He was slightly lucky in 2009 (when he put up a 3.94 ERA and 4.07 FIP for 3 WAR) and slightly unlucky in 2010 (when he put up a 4.39 ERA and 4.61 FIP for 1.2 WAR). So far this year he’s not been much better than Westbrook or KMac, mind you. He’s probably about an average pitcher, and he’s young enough (28) to get a touch better if he can up his GB%, something Dave Duncan could maybe help with (contrast with Jake Westbrook, who we traded a decent OF for last year and who was probably too old to improve under Duncan and has seemingly started to regress quite badly this year), and by moving from a very strong league to a much weaker one.
I don’t particularly want him, but he’s young, still cheap, and would be a bit of an upgrade over Westy/KMac. He’s not chopped liver but I think there are better options out there (both to trade for this year and in terms of free agents next year).
Another interesting thing to note re: Dave Duncan; Niemann’s 6 foot 9 and has thrown pretty hard in the past, yet only has a GB rate hovering around the 40-43% region. I’m betting, in terms of raw materials, that’s the sort of thing Duncan would like to work with. He also throws a curve and slider, so his repertoire is very reminiscent of Adam Wainwright’s and a number of other pitchers on our staff.
And I agree about Taveras, btw. The lack of walks is still a bit concerning but the fact he’ll STILL be young for his league if he’s at this level in a year is massively exciting. He’s got a lot of time to round out any issues with his game, and the raw tools look pretty impressive so far.
John Gast is adjusting pretty well to AA hitters..22 k’s to 6 bb in 20 innings with a 2.70 ERA…i’d say the best left handed Starter prospect we have
Who should we send to the AFL? How many people do we get?
I am flabbergasted that anyone would consider Desmond Jennings to be a reasonable replacement for Colby. Jennings is 2 months younger than Colby and has been rattling around the minors for the better part of six years. Colby is in his 3rd year of major league experience…and he was rated a higher prospect than Jennings is now 3 years ago. Mind numbing.
I’m flabbergasted how you think every one of our prospects are bound for major league success but then downgrade any other systems players and now including a guy who is Top-20 overall. Its funny how a trade the Rays would likely say no to as is would be one you would never as the Cardinals.
I would consider him a very reasonable replacement…. Better defensivly and most likley better hitter for AVG and better speed. Probably less power and he is same age i believe and not yet in the majors but he will be cheaper. I would still prefer colby and dont want to trade him but your not going to be losing a huge asset by replacing one with the other.
Sure, not made the biggest leap of all yet, but better than Colby. YOu can make the trade in your fantasy league, but no thanks.
I would bet my life that if he was a Cardinals prospect he would be a future All-Star in your book and untouchable in any trade talk especially since Ryan Jackson is atop your untouchable list.
Hell, I’d bet your life on something flimsier than that.
And once again you roll out rude comments at people but will be the first to whine if someone comes anywhere close at taking a shot at you.
didn’t you just insult Hugecardsfan in your prior statement???
How so? He does think everyone of our guys will be studs and would 100% no doubt be the same way with Jennings since he’s ranked so high and will always be the first to discredit other teams prospects.
Just stop. You definitely made a snide remark to HCF. He didn’t have the willpower to not make one back. Let it go. Stop sniping at each other.
No-one’s saying he’s better than Colby. But it’s 6 cheap years of Jennings vs 3 cheap years of Rasmus.
I think Colby is almost certainly better now and has more upside in future. But I also think Jennings is likely to be an above-average CF and, again, it’s not a like-for-like swap. It’s 6 years of Jennings (well, 5-and-a-bit) vs 3 years of Rasmus, and both will probably cost a similar amount over that period of time.
And, again, this is coming from someone who likes Colby and thinks D-Jen is possibly a bit over-rated.
I don’t think you trade the talent of Colby, as yet fully realized, for a kid who hasn’t proved that he can get it done in this league. He’s been rattling around in the minors for six years. Maybe he’s gonna be fine… But, he could end up a goof ball like Greene who, with all the talent in the world, never gets it at this level.
You can only trade Colby once. He has appeared on the verge of a breakout more than once. For all his faults, we all know that he is eventually going to be a very good to great ML’er. No way I want to just trade him for six years of who knows what. We should demand equal to greater potential and see what sticks.
Don’t think for a second that Colby doesn’t look better to the Braves than he does to us. He’s a Georgia boy in the first place. He is oozing with tools and they can’t help but think that TLR is part of the problem. Heck, they may be willing to hire Tony Rasmus to work with him. They desperately need outfield help….change of venue…. They have a ton of pitching…
I think they’ve explored hundreds of trades to see what might work. If they’re desperate enough, Tommy Hanson works. If not, well, the neat thing is, we don’t have to make any trade.
I think pretty much any Cards fan trades Rasmus for Tommy Hanson in a heartbeat. Which is exactly why that never happens, from Atlanta’s point of view, at least IMO. I’m not sure how desperate the Braves are for OF help, and if they’re dumping parts of their rotation Hudson and Lowe are more likely candidates I’d have thought (although, WOW, do they have some pitching talent in that organisation!).
Anyhow, I think we’re broadly in agreement – don’t trade Rasmus unless the haul is very good (the only area we seem to differ on is our valuation of Jennings, which is surprising because I’d say I’m quite pessimistic on him!).
Right now, I’d guess you’re right that Cards fans would be more willing than Braves fans. But, I doubt at the end of April any Cardinal fan would have considered the trade and let Colby drill the ball for a couple weeks after the break and… Emotions waver around here like the standings.
The Braves would have to be thinking that Colby is as low as he gets right now and Hanson could be hurt next week. Both of which are possibly true. The Colby situation even likely.
I don’t necessarily want to trade Colby. But, if the Braves want to sweep me off my feet, then it’ll take Tommy Hanson and not Desmond Jennings….not even Waylon. ;o)
I prefer Hanson to Jennings as well, but I’m pretty sure Mo would already have done that if that was an option. I’m not even sure the Rays would think about giving us Jennings FWIW. Colby’s value is at its lowest right now, and other teams know that he’s not fit in well in StL and presumably know (despite the noises to the contrary) that we’d happily trade him for something useful. I think the haul right now is probably lower than either of us have suggested so far, especially given Mo’s poor previous record of overpaying in trades.
I have no problem trading Colby as long as we overreach. I just want a major league player who can help us right now. In my opinion that is a ML starter possibly from Atlanta… I’d take Tommy Hanson…for instance. Both have 3 years of service. As bad as their outfield has performed they might just be desperate enough.
So basically you don’t want to trade Rasmus because teams aren’t going to hand you a cheap front of the rotation SP for an underperforming player. If this was FutureBravos would you even think one moment about doing this?
Hanson
Aug 28, 1986
2011
ERA 2.44
WHIP 1.02
BAA .190
Career:
ERA 2.99
WHIP 1.14
BAA .224
For
Rasmus
Aug 11, 1986
2011
.246/.329/.413/.742
Career
.259/.333/.442/.775
John Gast—-could he be a LOOGY next year already?
Not sure about next year, but I think Gast should be looked at as a starter first.
I’d love to see his lefty-righty splits somewhere, same for Additon. I can’t remember where they can be found for MiLB players now. But yeah, I think it’s possible, and I don’t really see him being an impact guy in the rotation (or indeed quite making it as a major league starter) but as Hugecardsfan says, Gast’s probably deserved more of a chance to see how he plays out in the high minors as a starter first.
JBCardsFan this is an perfect example of why big stats don’t mean jack towards projecting MLB success.
OPS leaders of .980 or better in AAA and AA from 2010-2005 with MLB OPS:
1.123 Nelson Cruz .834
1.120 Todd Linden .638
1.090 Joe Dillon .722
1.076 Geovany Soto .814
1.076 Kevin Orie .709
1.074 Randy Ruiz .820
1.060 Kila Ka’aihue .683
1.057 John Lindsey .237
1.053 Dan Johnson .738
1.047 John Bowker .679
1.035 Clint Robinson NA
1.033 Tagg Bozied NA
1.025 Rick Short 1.404 in 15 AB at 32
1.019 Brian Myrow .534
1.017 Sean Rodriguez .682
1.016 Jack Cust .815
1.016 Chase Headley .736
1.016 Alex Gordon .756
1.015 Mitch Jones .785
1.011 Chris Carter .506 in 100 AB still young
1.010 Conor Jackson .762
1.009 Jamie D’Antona .440
1.009 Andy Green .547
1.002 Justin Huber .580
.998 Dallas McPherson .738
.997 Scott Hairston .740
.994 Ryan Shealy .755
.993 Josh Whitesell .665
.986 J.P. Arencibia .692 in 283 AB still young
.986 Lou Montanez .589
.986 Brandon Guyer .833 in 6 AB still young
.985 Terrmel Sledge .745
.980 Joe Koshansky .676
.980 Jason Botts .669
Bowker’s not a terrible comp for Adams, actually. Similar minor league stats but he was a bit older – and I think Adams is better. But it does serve as a sort of cautionary tale, I guess.