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	<title>Comments on: Daily Farm Report 7/11/2011</title>
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	<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/</link>
	<description>Baseball&#039;s Future in the Gateway City</description>
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		<title>By: Felonius_Monk</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43955</link>
		<dc:creator>Felonius_Monk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:39:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bowker&#039;s not a terrible comp for Adams, actually.  Similar minor league stats but he was a bit older - and I think Adams is better.  But it does serve as a sort of cautionary tale, I guess.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bowker&#8217;s not a terrible comp for Adams, actually.  Similar minor league stats but he was a bit older &#8211; and I think Adams is better.  But it does serve as a sort of cautionary tale, I guess.</p>
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		<title>By: Felonius_Monk</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43954</link>
		<dc:creator>Felonius_Monk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:37:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43954</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I prefer Hanson to Jennings as well, but I&#039;m pretty sure Mo would already have done that if that was an option.  I&#039;m not even sure the Rays would think about giving us Jennings FWIW.  Colby&#039;s value is at its lowest right now, and other teams know that he&#039;s not fit in well in StL and presumably know (despite the noises to the contrary) that we&#039;d happily trade him for something useful.  I think the haul right now is probably lower than either of us have suggested so far, especially given Mo&#039;s poor previous record of overpaying in trades.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I prefer Hanson to Jennings as well, but I&#8217;m pretty sure Mo would already have done that if that was an option.  I&#8217;m not even sure the Rays would think about giving us Jennings FWIW.  Colby&#8217;s value is at its lowest right now, and other teams know that he&#8217;s not fit in well in StL and presumably know (despite the noises to the contrary) that we&#8217;d happily trade him for something useful.  I think the haul right now is probably lower than either of us have suggested so far, especially given Mo&#8217;s poor previous record of overpaying in trades.</p>
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		<title>By: Felonius_Monk</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43953</link>
		<dc:creator>Felonius_Monk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43953</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[33 and 21 IP are tiny sample sizes.  Pretty much anyone can look awesome in that period (again, no knock on Boggs or Lynn - both are probably, in my mind, pretty good pitchers going forward).

All that said, and semantics aside, I think we&#039;re both agreed - Bell would be a marginal, expensive upgrade, and neither of us want him.  I think we&#039;re more or less on the same page here :-).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>33 and 21 IP are tiny sample sizes.  Pretty much anyone can look awesome in that period (again, no knock on Boggs or Lynn &#8211; both are probably, in my mind, pretty good pitchers going forward).</p>
<p>All that said, and semantics aside, I think we&#8217;re both agreed &#8211; Bell would be a marginal, expensive upgrade, and neither of us want him.  I think we&#8217;re more or less on the same page here :-).</p>
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		<title>By: Felonius_Monk</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43952</link>
		<dc:creator>Felonius_Monk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:30:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43952</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league. When he’s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he’s an absolute beast. To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.&quot;

In your or my biased eyes, perhaps.  I prefer to recourse to the stats.

See here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorino-is-better-than-ryan-howard/

or in fact, just look at their respective values in recent seasons:
Howard:
2008: 3.0 WAR
2009: 4.6 WAR
2010: 1.3 WAR
2011: 1.2 WAR
Total: 10.1 WAR
Victorino:
2008: 4.7 WAR
2009: 3.6 WAR
2010: 3.7 WAR
2011: 4.4 WAR
Total: 16.4 WAR

So, frankly, it&#039;s not even that close.  Victorino is better.  Factually better.

YET AGAIN, you&#039;re totally ignoring defense.  Howard is a bit of a butcher at 1B, Victorino a competent CF.  Even though Howard&#039;s a slightly better hitter, that makes a huge difference in their value.  That&#039;s not even taking into account the fact that Howard is a horrible baserunner and Victorino is good (which is incorporated into the WAR figures), and the fact that Howard has an appalling platoon split and can be neutralised by LOOGYs in high-leverage ABs (which isn&#039;t).  It should also be noted that Howard has significantly more PT and PAs over this timespan.  Also, Howard&#039;s older and on the downward slide of his career IMO, and has a skillset and body type that tends to age pretty badly.  Going forward he&#039;s likely to be trailling Victorino by an even greater margin.

Again, I strongly suggest you rethink your attitude as regards the value of different positions on the defensive spectrum, and the fact that you seem to hugely over-rate slugging-type 1B/DH guys and more or less ignore defense and positional adjustments.  Again, this is no knock on Adams (who i think could be almost as good a hitter as Howard, and who I&#039;m warming to as a possible long-term answer at 1B), but just pointing out in a friendly way perhaps that you might be looking at things the wrong way; if you genuinely believe Howard is a much better player than Victorino you&#039;re not necessarily in the minority of casual fans, but you&#039;re way off the mark.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league. When he’s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he’s an absolute beast. To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.&#8221;</p>
<p>In your or my biased eyes, perhaps.  I prefer to recourse to the stats.</p>
<p>See here <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorino-is-better-than-ryan-howard/" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorino-is-better-than-ryan-howard/</a></p>
<p>or in fact, just look at their respective values in recent seasons:<br />
Howard:<br />
2008: 3.0 WAR<br />
2009: 4.6 WAR<br />
2010: 1.3 WAR<br />
2011: 1.2 WAR<br />
Total: 10.1 WAR<br />
Victorino:<br />
2008: 4.7 WAR<br />
2009: 3.6 WAR<br />
2010: 3.7 WAR<br />
2011: 4.4 WAR<br />
Total: 16.4 WAR</p>
<p>So, frankly, it&#8217;s not even that close.  Victorino is better.  Factually better.</p>
<p>YET AGAIN, you&#8217;re totally ignoring defense.  Howard is a bit of a butcher at 1B, Victorino a competent CF.  Even though Howard&#8217;s a slightly better hitter, that makes a huge difference in their value.  That&#8217;s not even taking into account the fact that Howard is a horrible baserunner and Victorino is good (which is incorporated into the WAR figures), and the fact that Howard has an appalling platoon split and can be neutralised by LOOGYs in high-leverage ABs (which isn&#8217;t).  It should also be noted that Howard has significantly more PT and PAs over this timespan.  Also, Howard&#8217;s older and on the downward slide of his career IMO, and has a skillset and body type that tends to age pretty badly.  Going forward he&#8217;s likely to be trailling Victorino by an even greater margin.</p>
<p>Again, I strongly suggest you rethink your attitude as regards the value of different positions on the defensive spectrum, and the fact that you seem to hugely over-rate slugging-type 1B/DH guys and more or less ignore defense and positional adjustments.  Again, this is no knock on Adams (who i think could be almost as good a hitter as Howard, and who I&#8217;m warming to as a possible long-term answer at 1B), but just pointing out in a friendly way perhaps that you might be looking at things the wrong way; if you genuinely believe Howard is a much better player than Victorino you&#8217;re not necessarily in the minority of casual fans, but you&#8217;re way off the mark.</p>
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		<title>By: RichardRich</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43915</link>
		<dc:creator>RichardRich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 21:53:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43915</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[JBCardsFan this is an perfect example of why big stats don&#039;t mean jack towards projecting MLB success.

OPS leaders of .980 or better in AAA and AA from 2010-2005 with MLB OPS:
1.123	Nelson Cruz	.834	
1.120	Todd Linden	.638 	
1.090	Joe Dillon	.722
1.076	Geovany Soto	.814
1.076 	Kevin Orie	.709
1.074	Randy Ruiz	.820
1.060	Kila Ka&#039;aihue	.683
1.057	John Lindsey	.237
1.053	Dan Johnson	.738 	
1.047	John Bowker	.679 	
1.035	Clint Robinson	NA 
1.033	Tagg Bozied	NA 
1.025	Rick Short	1.404 in 15 AB at 32
1.019	Brian Myrow	.534 	
1.017	Sean Rodriguez	.682 		
1.016	Jack Cust	.815
1.016	Chase Headley	.736
1.016	Alex Gordon	.756 	
1.015	Mitch Jones	.785 	
1.011	Chris Carter	.506 in 100 AB still young
1.010	Conor Jackson	.762		
1.009 	Jamie D&#039;Antona	.440 
1.009 	Andy Green	.547
1.002	Justin Huber	.580
.998	Dallas McPherson .738 		
.997	Scott Hairston	.740
.994	Ryan Shealy	.755
.993	Josh Whitesell	.665
.986	J.P. Arencibia	.692 in 283 AB still young	
.986	Lou Montanez	.589
.986 	Brandon Guyer	.833 in 6 AB still young
.985	Terrmel Sledge	.745 	
.980	Joe Koshansky	.676
.980 	Jason Botts	.669]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JBCardsFan this is an perfect example of why big stats don&#8217;t mean jack towards projecting MLB success.</p>
<p>OPS leaders of .980 or better in AAA and AA from 2010-2005 with MLB OPS:<br />
1.123	Nelson Cruz	.834<br />
1.120	Todd Linden	.638<br />
1.090	Joe Dillon	.722<br />
1.076	Geovany Soto	.814<br />
1.076 	Kevin Orie	.709<br />
1.074	Randy Ruiz	.820<br />
1.060	Kila Ka&#8217;aihue	.683<br />
1.057	John Lindsey	.237<br />
1.053	Dan Johnson	.738<br />
1.047	John Bowker	.679<br />
1.035	Clint Robinson	NA<br />
1.033	Tagg Bozied	NA<br />
1.025	Rick Short	1.404 in 15 AB at 32<br />
1.019	Brian Myrow	.534<br />
1.017	Sean Rodriguez	.682<br />
1.016	Jack Cust	.815<br />
1.016	Chase Headley	.736<br />
1.016	Alex Gordon	.756<br />
1.015	Mitch Jones	.785<br />
1.011	Chris Carter	.506 in 100 AB still young<br />
1.010	Conor Jackson	.762<br />
1.009 	Jamie D&#8217;Antona	.440<br />
1.009 	Andy Green	.547<br />
1.002	Justin Huber	.580<br />
.998	Dallas McPherson .738<br />
.997	Scott Hairston	.740<br />
.994	Ryan Shealy	.755<br />
.993	Josh Whitesell	.665<br />
.986	J.P. Arencibia	.692 in 283 AB still young<br />
.986	Lou Montanez	.589<br />
.986 	Brandon Guyer	.833 in 6 AB still young<br />
.985	Terrmel Sledge	.745<br />
.980	Joe Koshansky	.676<br />
.980 	Jason Botts	.669</p>
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		<title>By: RichardRich</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43909</link>
		<dc:creator>RichardRich</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 20:53:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Colby will be in Atlanta the first chance he gets on the open market, Even if Salas never gives up a run for the rest of his career the BP would still be upgraded with Bell.

Talent speaks louder than Stats, if stats meant you would be a good big league player then we would need to about 30 more teams because every team in the minors has several guys who post good looking stats every year and never get a shot in the majors.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Colby will be in Atlanta the first chance he gets on the open market, Even if Salas never gives up a run for the rest of his career the BP would still be upgraded with Bell.</p>
<p>Talent speaks louder than Stats, if stats meant you would be a good big league player then we would need to about 30 more teams because every team in the minors has several guys who post good looking stats every year and never get a shot in the majors.</p>
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		<title>By: Clayton</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43904</link>
		<dc:creator>Clayton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 19:57:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Adams is a stud...He has produced at every level and I believe that is going to continue]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Adams is a stud&#8230;He has produced at every level and I believe that is going to continue</p>
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		<title>By: Hugecardsfan</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43885</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugecardsfan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 17:41:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43885</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Right now, I&#039;d guess you&#039;re right that Cards fans would be more willing than Braves fans.   But, I doubt at the end of April any Cardinal fan would have considered the trade and let Colby drill the ball for a couple weeks after the break and...  Emotions waver around here like the standings.  

The Braves would have to be thinking that Colby is as low as he gets right now and Hanson could be hurt next week.  Both of which are possibly true.  The Colby situation even likely.

I don&#039;t necessarily want to trade Colby.  But, if the Braves want to sweep me off my feet, then it&#039;ll take Tommy Hanson and not Desmond Jennings....not even Waylon. ;o)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right now, I&#8217;d guess you&#8217;re right that Cards fans would be more willing than Braves fans.   But, I doubt at the end of April any Cardinal fan would have considered the trade and let Colby drill the ball for a couple weeks after the break and&#8230;  Emotions waver around here like the standings.  </p>
<p>The Braves would have to be thinking that Colby is as low as he gets right now and Hanson could be hurt next week.  Both of which are possibly true.  The Colby situation even likely.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t necessarily want to trade Colby.  But, if the Braves want to sweep me off my feet, then it&#8217;ll take Tommy Hanson and not Desmond Jennings&#8230;.not even Waylon. ;o)</p>
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		<title>By: JBCardsFan</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43883</link>
		<dc:creator>JBCardsFan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 17:23:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And yeah, lots of arguments about Adams because he is a side issue to one of the biggest issues in Cardinals history:  What happens with Pujols?

If Pujols is gone, what&#039;re the backup options?  Adams is part of that discussion so that&#039;s why we all get so worked up over him.  If you don&#039;t believe in him, then you&#039;re worried that the club might consider Adams an option.  If you do believe in him, you&#039;re worried he might get traded anyways or the Cards might go a different direction and block him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And yeah, lots of arguments about Adams because he is a side issue to one of the biggest issues in Cardinals history:  What happens with Pujols?</p>
<p>If Pujols is gone, what&#8217;re the backup options?  Adams is part of that discussion so that&#8217;s why we all get so worked up over him.  If you don&#8217;t believe in him, then you&#8217;re worried that the club might consider Adams an option.  If you do believe in him, you&#8217;re worried he might get traded anyways or the Cards might go a different direction and block him.</p>
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		<title>By: JBCardsFan</title>
		<link>http://www.futureredbirds.net/2011/07/11/daily-farm-report-7112011/comment-page-1/#comment-43882</link>
		<dc:creator>JBCardsFan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 17:19:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=7741#comment-43882</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league.  When he&#039;s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he&#039;s an absolute beast.  To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.  

Howard hasn&#039;t quite been that player the last two years.  Still good but not producing at 2006-2009 levels.  

Adams doesn&#039;t have the power of Howard.  Heck, almost no one in the league outside of Jose Bautista and maybe Adam Dunn does.  But Adams doesn&#039;t strike out like Howard or Dunn.  Adams also has shown a lot in terms of average.  

All I&#039;m saying is that if Adams ever put up a .300+/25+/100+ stat line in the majors, that it would take a heck of a lot, even for a CF, to beat that.  Only 13 players last year had 100+ RBIs and of them only 6 had a BA .290 or better.  Not saying Adams puts that up, but if he ever did, Jennings would have to be like a prime Grady Sizemore or Juan Pierre to be close.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ryan Howard at his best is better than almost any player in the league.  When he&#8217;s hitting 140+ RBIs, 40+ homers, and his batting average is near .280, he&#8217;s an absolute beast.  To say Victorino is better is just simply nowhere close to the truth.  </p>
<p>Howard hasn&#8217;t quite been that player the last two years.  Still good but not producing at 2006-2009 levels.  </p>
<p>Adams doesn&#8217;t have the power of Howard.  Heck, almost no one in the league outside of Jose Bautista and maybe Adam Dunn does.  But Adams doesn&#8217;t strike out like Howard or Dunn.  Adams also has shown a lot in terms of average.  </p>
<p>All I&#8217;m saying is that if Adams ever put up a .300+/25+/100+ stat line in the majors, that it would take a heck of a lot, even for a CF, to beat that.  Only 13 players last year had 100+ RBIs and of them only 6 had a BA .290 or better.  Not saying Adams puts that up, but if he ever did, Jennings would have to be like a prime Grady Sizemore or Juan Pierre to be close.</p>
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