Boone Whiting: A Cautionary Tale
Posted on July 12th, 2011 by azruavatar in analysis, tags: boone whitingQuad Cities has seen several very interesting pitchers pass through it’s starting rotation this season. From Carlos Martinez to Jordan Swagerty to current starter Trevor Rosenthal, they’ve had a plethora of high octane arms throwing gas and striking out batters. One of the undersung additions to that rotation has been Boone Whiting.
While he’s not a complete surprise to prospect watchers, Whiting’s Johnson City performance in 2010 after signing with the Cardinals hasn’t slowed down much. He struck out 11 batters per 9 IP while walking fewer than 1 per 9IP. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. Over 54 innings, Whiting had a 13.6 K:BB rate. For every 13 batters he struck out, he walked one.
But as an 18th round pick out of a no name [Clarification: It is a Div 1 program but realistically not a top program -- they are in the Summit League.] baseball program (Centenary College in New JerseyLouisiana [reader correction]), 54 innings was unlikely to turn anyone from a skeptic into a believer. There’s ample evidence that the skeptical approach is, on balance, the right one. Whiting began his 2011 season in the Quad Cities pen and has set out to show that 2010 wasn’t a fluke.
He’s appeared in 22 games to date including 6 starts and accumulated 68.2 innings. The strikeouts are still coming though not quite as frequently. Compared to the previously mentioned prospects that have higher name recognition, Whiting doesn’t quite stack up in pure K rate:
| K/9 | |
| Boone Whiting | 9.83 |
| Shelby Miller | 12.08 |
| Carlos Martinez | 11.64 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 10.70 |
What Whiting does have is better control than all of those pitchers. In fact, Whiting’s 4.6 K/BB rate is higher than any of the above listed names.
The concern with control pitchers is always whether their lack of pure stuff will eventually catch up with them. As more advanced hitters chase fewer balls outside of the zone, the pitchers are forced to work closer to the zone and the batters make them pay for their inferior stuff. Having not seen Whiting first hand (nor having read any quality, credible reports on him), it’s premature to say whether he’s a soft tossing, control right hander that is destined for hard knocks at higher levels.
Here’s my cautionary tale though. There are a couple really good scouting examples — entirely anecdotal — that I like to reference for control pitchers in the low minors.
| K/9 | BB/9 | |
| Boone Whiting | 9.83 | 2.1 |
| PJ Walters | 9.57 | 1.57 |
| Yuseirmo Petit | 13.2 | 2.4 |
Petit and Walters are both in their age 26 season. While neither is old, Walters is mired in a mediocre season at Memphis in the PCL and Petit played a little in the Mexican league during 2011 but has otherwise not been involved with Major League Baseball or its affiliates. Yuseirmo Petit was a Venezualan product that came through the Mets organization and was, in 2005, rated a top 50 prospect by Baseball America. His stuff never translated to the big leagues and he’s a footnote in prospect history at this point.
While I’m encouraged to see the impressive results that Boone Whiting has had in Quad Cities on the heels of his rookie ball success, I’m hesitant to drive the bandwagon.
Entries (RSS)
I’d love to see a scouting report on Whiting stuff, but his stats have been very good so far and even if he does turn out to be a soft tosser good stats do eventually have some value. The Mets were able to unload Petit and another player for Carlos Delgado! So while his numbers might not guarantee major league success. No, he is not Miller, Martinez or Rosenthal, but he could still be a valuable piece to the Cardinals organization. So I don’t mind spending a little time aboard his bandwagon. What can it hurt?
I’ve seen Whiting live a couple times. He has better swing and miss stuff than PJ does…better deception. He also has better control. I didn’t trust the radar gun enough to pay any attention but I’m guessing his velocity may be a tad higher.
I don’t know how that will all translate in AA and up but we’re gonna find out soon enough. I’m on board until he throws a shoe.
I’m thinking he’s likely destined for the bullpen, but I’m broadly hopeful he could turn into something there.
I agree. Keep moving him up. I understand he may not be the 2nd coming of Maddux, but you don’t know by keeping him down.
I’m not afraid to be on the wagon. I really like his make-up.
The fair knock against him is his GB rate isn’t great so they may be trying to get him to work on that and to give up a few less HR’s.
First let’s set the record straight about where Walters “is”. He isn’t mired in a mediocre season but in the STL Cardinals bullpen with a 0.00 ERA (ok, 1 appearance – but that is where he is at). He also has an ERA just over 2.00 in the PCL over the last month and a half he was there.
I don’t know enough about Petit to say why he flamed out but it couldn’t have helped that they had him pitching in the big leagues at age 21. Still, he put up a 0.3 career WAR that was worth $1.7 million dollars. If Whiting gives us that how can we complain for an 18th round draft pick?
One key thing in the PJ/Whiting comparison is that Whiting is a year younger (baseball age) than PJ was when he pitched at QC. Rosenthal also looks good compared to PJ here as he also a year younger than PJ was when he reached QC. Rosenthal has heat so I’m not sure why he is in this discussion though. I would also argue that PJ had better college preparation at least in terms of competition.
The true test will come next year when at a comparable age of 22 Walters climbed to and was in AA ball.
Not fully on the Whiting wagon until I get some more first hand reports on him but this blog post made me more, not less of a believer.
just watched the highlights from Whiting’s last start here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENFJ7_0Q_6U
looks like he has a lot of movement on his pitches..looks like he has a good changeup there and he looks super small..also a highlight of Kolten Wong with a rbi double in that video too…highly recommend everybody bookmark the link..they have highlights for pretty much all the River Bandits games
correction, River Bandits home games
my Nick Addition cautionary tale has not panned out yet either…there is a guy whose stuff overall is underwhelming (plus curve) but succeeding.
I have no explanation for Additon. I do not know why guys can’t hit him. It’s bizarre to me.
Here’s another good video from this season with a lot of slow-mo looks at his windup and movement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yBD_gXKJNE
Snap judgement: great movement, good command, may struggle more when faced with more advanced hitters that won’t chase.
He really comes over the top.
I was watching that clip not too long ago, Jeff, and I came away very impressed. I’m buying on Whiting based on the changeup alone. He sells the change as well as any pitcher I can think of at the moment, finishing the pitch off beautifully. I’m a big fan of the arm action too, even though straight over the top pitchers aren’t usually my cup of tea. Love the mechanics.
Watching how he finishes off his changeup with enough violence to fool hitters, combined with the high arm slot and the movement on the pitch, puts me in mind of Clay Buccholz’s change. The rest of the repertoire obviously doesn’t match up to what Buccholz can throw, but that changeup is a legit pitch.
I was initially very skeptical of Whiting, thinking he was another in the long line of P.J. Walters/Trey Hearne types, but I can’t help but be impressed the more he continues to put up huge numbers and seeing some video of him. There’s still plenty of reason to be skeptical of him, but I’m buying whatever he’s selling for now.
I think he attended Centenary in Louisiana, not New Jersey
Can we send Whiting to the Lance Lynn’s camp “How to add 3 mph to your sitting fastball after turning pro even when you are 23 years old”?
Lynns fastball jumped 3 mph because he went from throwing predominatly a 2 seam fastball to throwing a 4 seam fastball; there was no magical velocity or strength gain.
It’s not magic when a pitcher increases velocity. There are legitimate ways to get stronger and improve mechanics that have everything to do with good coaching and hard work and nothing to do with PEDs.
… assuming the original comment implied possible PED use. Just trying to make the point that stronger pitchers can throw harder, to a point, and that strength and conditioning combined with mechanical tweaks can indeed add MPH, even when the pitcher is physically mature.
Lynn himself said he went from throwing 2 seam fastballs to a 4 seam which lead to the increased velo. A 2 seam fastball is naturally slower than a 4 seam. And if you look closely I never mention PEDs or anything like that. The change in his fastball grip (2 seam to 4 seam) was the ONLY reason for the velo increase.
Lynn’s 2 seamer and 4 seamer picked up a couple mph’s. The Cards made some improvements on his mechanics to accomplish that. He was throwing 2 and 4 seamers all along but the 4 seamer became his predominant strikeout pitch.
I strongly disagree with this assessment. By all accounts, he made changes to his mechanics and experienced an increased velocity. There were never any previous reports of him touching 96 with his fastball.
It might be a more useful exercise to identify soft tossing, control right handed pitchers who have been successful in the majors rather than the ones who have stalled in AAA, and compare Whiting to them. Who are they and what is it about them that made them successful? The difficulty with this, at least from my perspective, is how to identify successful, soft tossing right handers in the majors. How soft can they really be? Somebody mentioned Maddox but I don’t know that he really qualifies because he had a good fastball that he could pin point but I for one don’t know exactly what it registered on the gun, what kind of movement it had etc.
Anyway, I suspect that there are somewhat comparable pitchers to Whiting who are making it in the majors. I guess to start with we would have to find out more about Whiting’s repertoire and go from there.
As I recall Maddux sat around 94-95 when he first came up.
My memory must be mush. I thought his fastball was high 80′s – but he was just a surgeon in slicing and dicing hitters.
I did a little research on Maddux and what I found said that he “touched” 93 on his fastball when he first came up but steadily declined. So I beleive my recollection that he was working in the high 80′s when he was a shut down pitcher is correct.
Also, trying to compare/contrast any prospect of any sort with one of the ten best pitchers of all time is probably on a hiding to nothing.
Hence my comment:
Keep moving him up. I understand he may not be the 2nd coming of Maddux, but you don’t know by keeping him down.
Centenary is a liberal arts college in Shreveport, Louisiana. Not New Jersey. It is noted as the alma mater of NBA center Robert Parish.
In 2010, Whiting ranked fifth in Division I in strikeouts per nine innings (12.9) and ninth in whiffs (120).
Thanks for the college correction. Is it wrong that I have no idea who Robert Parish is?
Have you heard of Larry Bird?
Yes.
My reply is to Azru’s question. Parish was a near hall of fame center for the Celtics in the Bird era. His three punch TKO of Bill Laimbeer in a conference title game is one of my dearest sports memories. Beyond that Tony Perez is a good baseball comp. as far as clutch sports performance. I have to admit, though, that, before Mrs. TLR’s comment, I had no idea where Centenary is.
Am I really that much older than you? I suppose its possible but I thought everyone familiar with the NBA knew who The Big Chief was.
Yes, I find this disturbing…….
Perhaps the robot experienced a hard drive crash. :)
Unfortunately for The Chief his career at Centenary and his single season rebounding record never happened as far as the NCAA is concerned.
http://www.mentalfloss.com/blogs/archives/85750
Based on all the above, Boone could become a ML pitcher, however, not sure about the Cards staff tho..The cards have more pitchers ahead of him…..sp
Depth is never a bad thing……..