Daryl Jones is back in Springfield as a 24 year old, 3 years after his breakout season there in 2008 as a 21 year old. What’s eating the DJ? Let’s take a look inside the numbers.
Daryl Jones’ 2008 season was a revelation as he OPS’ed 882 in pitcher friendly Palm Beach and then .909 in hitter friendly Springfield. However, he hasn’t turned in anywhere near those kind of numbers since then. I’m not privy to anything that is going on with the player in his life or the plans the Cardinals have had for him in the past or going forward.
Looking back at Jones’ 151 PAs in Springfield in 2008, he was assisted by an unsustainable 11.3% HR/FB rate and a huge jump in his walk rate up 5%. His numbers did not drop significantly in 2009, he actually hit more line drives, but also more ground balls. With a HR/FB drop 9% down to an unlucky 2.5% and the regression to the norm of his walk rate, Jones dropped to about average for his league and ballpark. For a player who was supposed to be at the top of the Cardinals prospect lists, this was a disappointment.
After a fairly similar season in 2010, Jones was promoted to Memphis in a bench role to start the season. Then in the middle of June after some promotions and injuries, Jones was starting almost straight through from June 9th to June 27th with mixed results. However, Jones was soon returned to his previous bench role and then dropped to Springfield and a starting role there. He has played very well in Springfield as a 24 year old coming back from AAA should.
Is Daryl Jones an org guy now? Being moved around from Springfield and Memphis wherever they need an extra outfielder? How should we think of Jones? Is he a constant breakout candidate or a toolsy player with one big season on his record? At this point he has considerably more mediocre seasons than good seasons on his record.
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Have always liked DJ Tools upside, but between too many down seasons, injuries, and now that he is 24 and going backwards to AA, its getting harder to consider him a prospect at this point. However, anything is possible as you can’t teach talent which he has, but at some point you gotta put it together, and outside of one year he hasn’t been able to do it which doesnt bode well for his future. I wouldn’t cut him, but also wouldn’t add him to the 40 man roster in the future either.
And if not added to the 40 man roster will become a minor league FA after the season.
I’m guessing (for the reasons cario notes above) he’s the “Shane Pietersen-type” throw-in prospect in any trade we make this year. He still has some sketchy value, but I think he needs a change of scene.
When the organization does not think enough of him to play him ahead of the group of fringe outfielders they have at Memphis right now you have to assume DJ’s days as a prospect are over. Maybe he can pack up his tool box and go to another team but IMO he will never get another chance with the Cardinal organization to be anything other than organizational depth.
Agree with the above. I’ve pretty much written him off as I think the Cardinals have. I can’t think of another player who has regressed as much and for as long as he has and then become a productive major leaguer. It’s too bad too because, as well stocked as we are with outfielders on the big club we are equally thin through the rest of the system. Also, if the recent draft is an indication, the team is looking at speed in the outfield for the future. Tools would have filled that bill but it doesn’t look like he has what it takes.
Tyler Greene is 28 and is still in the organization. He is still labeled as “toolsy” and bounces back and forth. I won’t write off DJ just yet. There is too much raw talent there.
While DJ Tool does still possess the tool chest, the reason why he won’t make it to the show w/ St. Louis and Tyler Greene did is the same: depth. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in the outfield ahead of DJ, see Berkman, Holiday, Rasmus, Jay and Craig, who have proven to be legitimate MLB players. In front of Greene the last few years has been Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan and Ryan Theriot (fringe to average MLB regulars).
Tyler Greene is a SS. DJ is a corner outfielder without power and below average arm. DJ is toast as a Cardinal IMHO. I wish him well in another organization, should one give him an opportunity.
Although I am probably wrong…
Well maybe you’re not wrong but I just don’t see either Greene, DJ or Brian Anderson for that matter making it with the Cardinals. It does seem though that some players get caught in a system that isn’t right for them for whatever reason and any of these guys could maybe make it with another team. It seems kind of unfair to keep these “organizational” guys around year after year when management has pretty much given up on them. I don’t know why minor league trades have become extinct. I suspect that a few “we’ll swap our underachiever for yours” deals could result in a new start for some of these guys as well as fill holes for the trading teams.
I think part of the reason why more minor league trades don’t happen is because if you don’t make the trade, there is nothing to be criticized about. Trading an underachiever who turns into a valuable member of another organization would be scrutinized quite a bit.
I’m in favor of more minor league trades, just offering what I believe to be a rationale from the GM’s point of view.
I don’t consider him a prospect for us anymore. I honestly think he has 4th outfielder potential but with another club.
This is a little off topic but I am going to go to the Springfield Cardinals game either Friday or Saturday in Northwest Arkansas. Any chance I might be able to catch Shelby Miller pitching?
Tools are meaningless unless the person shows they can use them. The reason he is not playing everyday in Memphis is the other guys are better. Remember, he started there this year not on merit. A fresh start somewhere would do him some good.
No good or obvious place to post this. But Callis did a recent prospect chat over at BA and there was a number of questions answered on Cards Prospects and Draft picks. Check it out: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2612103.html
Interesting — Callis compares Matt Adams to Paul Goldschmidt, and predicts that Charlie Tilson will sign for 7 figures, presumably near the deadline.
What makes the first tidbit doubly interesting is that another BA writer, JJ Cooper, quoted a scout who compared Goldschmidt to Pujols. (The article may be subscriber-only; I can’t really tell.) He didn’t mean Goldschmidt is as good as AP, just that he seems to emulate Albert’s swing, and uses it to generate good power.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2011/2612065.html
Callis seems VERY high on C-Mart. That’s higher praise than I have read on him before.