The farm put up a winning record of 5-2 on the night. Miller and Martinez were both good in each players first game since apearing in the Futures Game. Martinez was a hard luck loser. There are a lot of games to get to so let’s get to it.
Round Rock 6 @ Memphis 3 (Game 1)
Hitting:
-
Nick Stavinoha hit a 2-run shot for his only hit in 4 PA
-
Matt Carpenter went 1-for-2 w/ 1 BB
Pitching:
-
Brian Broderick got the start and was not very good: 4.0 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 3 BB, and 3 K
-
Rich Rundles pitched the next 2.0 innings, he gave up 2 H and 1 R though he did post 3 K
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Pete Parise pitched a perfect seventh inning
Round Rock 1 @ Memphis 4 (Game 2)
Hitting:
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Tyler Greene went 1-for-4 w/ 1 2B and 1 R
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Freddie Bynum went 1-for-1 w/ a solo shot and 1 BB
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Nick Stavinoha went 1-for-3 and had his second 2-run homer of the day
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Matt Carpenter went 2-for-3
Pitching:
-
Cory Rauschenberger got what I am assuming was a bullpen start, he went 4.0 innings and gave up 2 H, 1 R, and 2 BB, he also recorded 1 K
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Chuckie Fick pitched 2.0 perfect innings
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Victor Marte closed it out with 1.0 inning that included 1 H and 1 K
Hitting:
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Shane Robinson went 3-for-5 in his second game back from the DL, he had 1 RBI
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Ryan Jackson went 1-for-4 w/ 1 HR, 1 R, and 2 RBI
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Zack Cox went 2-for-3 w/ 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 R, and 1 RBI
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Charlie Cutler continues to mash, he went 2-for-5 w/ 1 2B, 2 R, and 1 RBI
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Jose Garcia went 3-for-4 w/ 1 2B, 3 RBI, and 1 SB
Pitching:
-
Shelby Miller got the start and was solid: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, and 5 K
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Brett Zawacki was perfect over the next 2.0 innings, he had 1 K
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Sam Freeman had 2 K and gave up 1 H in his 1.0 inning
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Kevin Thomas went 1.0 inning w/ 1 BB
Hitting:
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Alan Ahmady went 1-for-4
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Niko Vasquez and Edgar Lara each went 1-for-3
Pitching:
-
Carlos Martinez was very good and put up a line of 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, and 7 K but was out pitched by the Yankees’ Jose Quintana
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Francisco Samuel went 1.0 IP w/ 1 BB and 2 K
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Jeff Lyman went 1.0 IP w/ 1 H and 1 BB
Hitting:
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Oscar Taveras went 2-for-3 w/ 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 R, and 1 RBI
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Victor Sanchez hit a 3-run homer for his only hit in 4 PA
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Michael Swinson went 2-for-3 w/ 1 2B, 1 BB, and 1 RBI
Pitching:
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Trevor Rosenthal was decent: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R (3 ER), 3 BB, and 4 K
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Dean Kiekhefer was credited with the win, he pitched 2.0 IP w/ 2 H and 2 K
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Aidan Lucas was perfect in the ninth, he had 1 K
Hitting:
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Garrett Wittels went 3-for-5 w/ 1 2B and 2 R
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David Medina went 3-for-4 w/ 2 RBI
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Virgil Hill went 1-for-3 w/ 1 SB
Pitching:
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Jonathan Cornelius shut out the Valley Cats over 6.0 innings, he gave up only 3 H and had 2 K
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Ricky Martinez pitched the next two innings perfectly, a trend in this DFR, and recorded 3 K
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Corey Baker blew the save but got the win by pitching 1.0 inning w/ 3 H, 3 R, and 1 K
Hitting:
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Steven Ramos went 2-for-4 w/ 1 R and 1 RBI
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Matthew Williams had a solo shot in his 4 PA
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Anthony Garcia went 2-for-4 w/ 1 HR, 2 R, and 2 RBI
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Gary Apelian hit a 2-run homer for his only hit in 4 PA
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David Washington went 1-for-4 w/ 1 2B
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Roberto De La Cruz went 2-for-4 w/ a solo homer
Pitching:
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Benjamin Freeman went 5.0 innings and gave up 6 H, 4 R, and 2 BB, he stuck out three
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Roberto Canache gave up 3 H over the next 2.0 scoreless innings
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Heath Wyatt got the save by pitching 1.0 inning that included 1 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, and 3 K
Entries (RSS)
Good to see Cox hitting so well. Not sure there is a spot for him on the ML roster in the next couple of years, but I think he could become good trade bait if Freese stays healthy, and Carpenter stays on track.
Cox:
I’m sure that he will be moved to 2B in order to play at STL. They are just working on his quick reflexes by playing him at 3B. AS TLR said this year, “If you can play 3B you can play 2B”.
Carpenter:
Now we are seeing what he is capable of. Notice the numbers at AAA are no as good as AA. We shall see if he is able to make that adjustment. Because he looked horrible during his stint in the ML’s.
Also nice to see the following hitters hitting:
Cox
Cutler
Anderson
Wong
Kozma (JK) please remove from 40 man roster (admit the FO screwed up MO)
You’re off base with regards to Carpenter. Matt Carpenter is walking more, striking out less and hitting for more power relative to the park environments than he did in AA. The only thing that’s changed has been his luck which is reflected in his batting average. He was lucky on hits last year and he’s been a little unlucky on hits this year. His performance is not significantly different from that of Springfield though.
Also, his calling card hasn’t changed. 2010 OBP = .412; 2011 OBP = .420
That’s totally possible. Wonder if the difference is on his BABIP? As far as average is concerned.
Mostly — his BABIP last year was .377, this year it’s .305. What’s problematic about the minors is that you have inconsistent fielding and the variance on BABIP can be much higher than what you’d see in the majors. Still, it’s safe to say .377 was lucky (or unsustainable) and .305 is probably slightly unlucky.
Kozma is not coming off the 40 man roster unless they think there is a better replacement at this time. We are just too thin there. Who would replace him Garcia? Solano? Possible, but doubtful. Have to remeber that Punt is a FA (though I hope we re-sign him) and most likely either Theriot, Skip, or both will be removed via non tendered. unfortunately, just not a lot of options.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Skip leaving after this year. Because we have Descalso who worked his way through the system at 2B and can provide Skip’s offense and better D at league min as opposed to paying a player like Skippy 2.7M. Getting read of RF’s 3.3M salary, TMiller’s 2M salary, Skip’s 2.7M salary, and passing on Chris Carpenter’s 15M option will save the team a bunch of money and open up other doors. I think Carpenter is possibly offered an 8-9M salary PY over 2 years to come back though.
It would be nice though if the team could some how off load both Lohse & Westbook. I would trade them in a heartbeat if someone would take 100% of their salaries.
Next Year:
Wainwright
Carpenter
Gracia
Lynn
McClellan or TBD
Unlikely Westbrook or Lohse get moved w/ the no-trade protection both enjoy. Bet Mo wishes he would’ve given each guy something else instead of the no-trade clauses. Unfortunately the teams that could use starters like Westbrook and Lohse are not desirable places (see Small Bears, Baltimore). Barring late season injuries to the Bo-Sox and NYY rotations, both will spend next year wearing the birds on the bat.
Westbrook does not have no-trade protection, so far as I know.
He has the no-trade protection that he has utterly stunk this year and no-one would trade for him…
I will be pretty shocked and disappointed if Schumaker is back next year. He’s had a couple of solid years but Descalso is cheaper, younger and better, and realistically if Theriot is still on this team he should probably be playing more 2B than SS.
Miller was deep into counts again last night, however the officiating continues to be bad this year in the TL (lots of balls when the pitch before was a strike).
He will need to use more secondary stuff as he progresses.
Saw Matt Adams getting some love on twitter last night. Saw a tweet where someone asked Kevin Goldstein about him, and KG replied saying that he talked to a scout who had just seen him and he really liked him. Another person asked Keith Law if Adams was nearing top 100 status and Law said “I think he’s there already.” Law was also asked about a few other Cards prospects, I’ll see if I can find those tweets and post them.
@keithlawkeithlaw
++fastball. Might be reliever RT @thestlcardsfan4: Thoughts on Trevor Rosenthal? 20-years-old with 10.70 K/9 with a 3.03 FIP in Quad Cities
@keithlawkeithlaw
Yeah, i think so. RT @sporttours: @keithlaw Fernando Salas legit guy?
@Kevin Goldstein
I think 22 is quite high. RT @ranks1414: @Kevin_Goldstein C Martinez coming in a lil lower than expected…
@Kevin_GoldsteinKevin Goldstein
Not really; absolutely; maybe. RT @CodeeG: @Kevin_Goldstein Are you a believer in Trevor Rosenthal or Oscar Taveras? top 100?
How many De La cruzs’ and Garcias does the Cards farm system have? It’s getting confusing.
It seems like every club has a couple and which ones are real prospects.. the ones to watch?
Kolten Wong also continued his hitting streak, although he made his first error as a pro.
Goldstein yells at me every time I hint that there might be something to learn about Matt Adams from examining other free swingers like Vladimir Guerrero. For the record: I DO NOT CONSIDER GUERRERO A COMPARABLE FOR ADAMS. The question is just whether there is anything to LEARN from a guy who didn’t walk much more in the minors than Adams does, yet reached stardom. He’s the only such case I know of. (BTW, Adams was 1 for 5.)
I’m not sure why the aggressive plate discipline is viewed as such an unusual characteristic. Loads of double-a mashers just swing at everything. Some get better, some don’t. Remember Mike Jacobs? Richie Sexson? Look at their minor league walks. For a more recent prospect with troubling low walks, look at what Carlos Gonzalez was doing five years ago.
Anyone else see BA’s Hot Sheet yesterday? Wong at 3, Taveras at 6, Cox at 9 and Jenkins in the Team Photo. Strong showing from the Baby Birds this week.
Was at the Springfield game yesterday.. Thought Shelby looked good, a few guys squared him up and had solid hits but for the most part guys were pretty overmatched. The inning he got into trouble, the ump completely boned him; he was paiting the corners but not getting the calls and two guys in the inning should have been K’d but they ended up contributing to the two runs. Anybody not on the Matt Adams bandwagon needs to jump on quick; he hit two balls to DEEP left center and right center that were both caught right up against the wall-NWA’s ballpark is 400 to those parts with some pretty high walls so he was crushing them but just missed HR’s. I wouldn’t worry about the walks, why walk when you can smack the crap out of every ball you swing at? The ball just sounds different coming off his bat, he hits it so hard it’s crazy. I was really impressed with his athleticism for a big guy too; he looked great at 1B, but what shocked me is he can MOVE for a big guy-almost beat out a chopper up the middle to the SS, it was a bang-bang play. If he can drop some of the baby fat, I honestly think he could play LF. I mean honestly, we won a World Series with Chris Duncan in LF and his bat is nowhere near as good as Adams. Obviously that’s not the ideal scenario but if we resign Pujols then it would be a waste to keep Adams at first and his bat out of the lineup, especially since it’s almost a guarantee we won’t get someone of equal value for him in a trade.
I was really impressed with Zack Cox, he had some nice hits including his HR into the RF bullpen. Also made a nice play at third on a high chopper with a fast runner going to first, had to make a quick throw and did it. He’s looking more comfortable and that explains his recent hotstreak, the ability is there it just takes him some time to get used to different levels of competition. I thought Jose Garcia looked good, no power to speak of but he has a good glove at 2B and a smooth swing that he uses to hit for high average. Shane Robinso had some nice hits, I was more impressed with the ground he covered in CF, he’s really fast. Cutler can mash but his defense was less than stellar at C, fortunately he looked athletic enough to potentially play a corner OF spot.
Trying to remember everybody that made an impression on me, if y’all have any questions about how somebody played I can try to answer them for you..
I was actually at the game last night too. Got to see Miller pitch for the first time live and his delivery is so smooth. He does not look like he is throwing that hard and then you look at the radar gun and he is hitting 97. He sat 94-95 and touched 98 while hitting 97 numerous times all with pretty good downward movement on his fastball. Definitely seemed like he relied on it a bit too heavily though. Had a few changeups hit hard early on and seemed like he sort of gave up on the pitch. His curve was definitely as advertised though. He snapped off a few that were unhittable, but still looked like he needed to work on his command of i a bit. Also seemed like he was elevating the ball a bit too much leading to way to many flyballs.
As far as Adams it seemed like he made pretty solid contact in every at bat. And like jws003 said he does not move bad for a guy as big as he is. I am not sure about him playing left. But he handled himself well at first. Seems to have pretty good reaction time and made some good plays on well hit ground balls.
Agree on Cox too. He only really fielded one ball, because there were so many flyouts, but it was a really solid play on a tough hop and he flashed a really solid arm too. The homer was a really well hit line drive into the right field pen as jws003 said.
Curious what you thought of Jackson though? He seemed like he had a pretty good approach at the plate to my untrained eye. He also seemed like he may have a tad bit more pop than I thought he did. Seemed like he may be able to be a decent doubles hitter in the majors.
I just read somewhere (maybe it was here) that somebody had compared him to a young Jeff Blauser. I don’t remember who said that, but I’m thinking either Jim Callis or Kevin Goldstein.
I would like to see Jackson get hot and force a promotion to AAA, but that seems very unlikely.
I would like one of the prospectniks to explain why Grant Green is so much more highly rated than Jackson. They have very similar numbers, similar size, Jackson is younger, and Jackson’s glove is better.
.307 .358 .473 .831 for GG
.262 .337 .347 .684 for RJ
Check out their wOBA+ or their wOBAr. Green’s numbers are also buoyed by repeating a year in High A. There’s not much difference.
I take back the part about repeating a level given Green really didn’t play much there the year before.
Offensive potential; looking at their numbers, there is not much difference.
Green was regarded as a bat first SS coming out of USC; didn’t disappoint last year (albeit at Stockton), posting an .883 ops, .383 wOBA, 125 wRC+ (39 2B and 20 HR). This year he has struggled posting an .748 ops, .327 wOBA, 92 wRC+. There are questions about Green’s ability to stick at SS.
Jackson’s numbers in PB were decent, no doubt suppressed by the park: .734 ops, .341 wOBA, 111 wRC+. This year, his numbers are eerily similar to Green’s at the same level: .741 ops, .330 wOBA, 94 wRC+. The advantage definitely has to go to Jackson with the glove as there is no doubt to his ability to stick at SS. However, the truth remains that Green has more offensive upside; although he might be one of those guys whose production does not match his tools. see Tyler Greene. The gap between the two no doubt is narrowing.
Another thing to note; Green has struck out at a 20% clip the last two years and walked at a 7% clip, while Jackson has struck out at a 14% clip while walking at a 7% clip over the past two seasons.
I think it has/had to do with Jackson didn’t hit at Miami. He was originally projected to eventually be a first round talent but his bat never materialized. Green hit well in college. Jackson is late to the party in terms of the hit tool. I’m sure alot of draft people aren’t sure if its real yet.
Thanks for the report. How about Sam Freeman? Good to see a decent outing from him after getting knocked around lately. Has he got his velocity back?
He was sitting 90-93 mph with pretty good life to his fastball. His breaker looked like it had pretty good movement but he did not throw it much and missed when he did. But he was getting swings and misses with the fastball up in the zone. That was pretty much what he got by on in the inning. Looked good though.
Thank you.
Which Garcia was the shortstop at Hawaii and playd with Wong?
Greg
Its almost the perfect DFR…
-As every day that goes by, i get more and more excited about Ryan Jackson. I like hearing that he has a solid apprach at the dish, also its awesome that over 1/3 hits have gone for XBHs. I wonder as he fills out that 6’3″ 180 lbs frame what his power ceiling could be? Also, for the guys who were there last night, how did RJ look compaired to the C. Colon who i believe was a top 5 pick in last years draft? And i heard Kevin Goldstein on KFNS this morning and he a point to mentioned that RJ has opened a lot scouts eyes with his pop.
-What else can you say about Matt Adams, its even sounds like his outs are just as impressive as his bombs. I’d really hate to see him part from the org. in the next two weeks. Maybe his nickname should be Matt “State Farm” Adams, incase AP departs.
-I’d love to see Cox hit well for the rest of the season and hopefully improve his power numbers a little bit. It took a while but he seems to have adjusted to the AA pitching which is a good sign.
-Shelby with another solid outing. He is about at his inning total from last year, my question is how far do they want to push him this year?
-Same goes for C-Mart or as i prefer “k”-mart, I guess you gotta see how they look from start-to-start and make sure they are not laboring at all.
-And hopefully we can see Samuel make a sunday charge to save his career, i wonder how his velo looks after the shoulder deal?
Did KG say anything else worth mentioning in the interview?
If Albert leaves, we need a two year contract with Berkman. He is my 1st baseman/outfielder of choice as Adams fits into his new role(s). I think Adams will indeed work out in the outfield, but ala Tony it won’t be everyday. He can spell Berkman…vice versa.
I’ve never bought into the “he can’t play anywhere but 1st base and DH”…. He’s more athletic than folks are willing to acknowledge. Hey, if Dunn could do it, Adams can.
What MLB’er does Adams compare to if he plays LF? A guy that hits for high average, above average power, but plays below average defense. Sounds a little like Matt Holliday, but I think Matt’s D is average.
I think I could live with Adams and Holliday roaming right and left field. If Albert stays in that mix and Colby becomes more consistent, we’ll have murderer’s row back in town.
No shot Adams can play the OF! Dunn was passable when he first came up because he was way smaller once he started to get big he was an albatross in the OF even hitting 40 jacks. Holliday’s range will decline as he gets older and Adams is only going to get even bigger as he gets older so even if by some chance he can hit in the majors he is no doubt stuck at 1st or DH.
With Adams scheduled to be on a conditioning program in the offseason, I wouldn’t put anything past him. Some people that have seen him play say he has good athleticism. Besides, LF is the position you put your big boppers that can’t play a position because all they have to do is catch fly balls (ex. Pujols, Duncan, Ramirez, Dunn, Bonds at the end of his career, Ryan Howard at the beginning of his career, etc. etc. etc. etc.).
First he will always be big no matter what and as he’s only going to get bigger as he gets older. second you can’t hide him in LF because Holliday is getting older and his range is going to start to fade. They can’t have two negative defensive players out there with Colby as Holliday gets older and when did Howard play any OF?
Matt Adams: 2012 opening day 3B
I think he is the next skip at 2b.
I like his chances on the mound.
I like Albert at 3rd!!
Clearly the bat will forge a place for him in the lineup. There are no absolutes. Adams may not be an outfielder for long but LaRussa and any other manager will find a place for him until 1st base is open.
If Chris Duncan can be an outfielder, Matt Adams certainly can.
in point of fact, dunn couldn’t do it, at least not without destroying a large part of the value he batted in with his terrible D.
in 2008, he hit for a .383 wOBA (.236/.386/.513, with 40 HR), which made him the 23rd best hitter in the majors among qualified hitters. yet he was the 22nd WORST player by overall WAR value out of 147, because of his appalling defense. he was rubbing elbows with distinguished players like freddy sanchez and casey kotchman in terms of overall value.
i’m not sure how dunn “did it” unless “it” meant “continue to hold down a major league job.” adam dunn is the poster child for why you SHOULDN’T put defensively incompetent people in roles they can’t handle.
Re: “in point of fact, dunn couldn’t do it, at least not without destroying a large part of the value he batted in with his terrible D.”
You aren’t really going to use 2008 as the defining point of Dunn’s career are you? After all, I’m one of Dunn’s greatest critics but even I would want to give him a fairer shake than that.
Of course Dunn did it. Why else was he paid $56M over the past ten years and will receive an additional $56M for the next 4? The last 4 years he will be grossly overpaid, I know, but that’s Chicago’s fault.
To define Dunn it would be more appropriate to look at his body of work between 2001-2007 and even 2010. At the end of 2010 he’d amassed an overall WAR of over 27. He peaked at 5.5 in 2004….but still has six years of above average WAR. He was 4th in ROY, an All Star the next year, and 3 times in top 30 MVP. Somebody liked him. And Dunn did this with perennial low BA. In fact even his defensive WAR was net positive before 2006.
You make my point that it wouldn’t be a good idea to keep Adams in the outfield forever. Eventually, he needs to nest at 1st base. But, if we could get a 4-5 WAR out of him for several years, how bad is that? It would be pretty darned good.
Adam Dunn was actually pretty tolerable his first few years in the majors, but since 2005 he has cost teams between 1.5 and 3,7 wins with his OF defense.
That he was still very impressed with Shelby and thinks that Miller has forced the cardinals to push up his arrival. He liked that the Cardinals forced Shelby earn his promotion to Springfield. He doesn’t think Miller will make a Michael Pineda-like impact, and it will take some time to adjust (but he also said that he said the same about Pineda)…. Carlos might have a higher upside than Miller but more risk, he also is “long way away” compaired to Shelby. KG said there could be a chance that C-Mart could be a closer because he is so small and throws so hard…Even though he hates comps. he thought there was some stock in Matt Adams and Jason Giambi. Thats when he mentioned Jackson and how his bat has developed and thought that system is up from the spring.
Wow. Great info. Thanks a lot.
Adams/Giambi seems a pretty awful comp to me. Other than being two big guys who hit it a long way, not seeing much similarity there at all. Giambi always had a fantastic eye, which was a large part of his game. Adams looks like a lot more of a free-swinger, but there seems a fair chance his contact skills will play better than Giambi (or at least better than non-peak/steroidy Giambi).
Memphis has a bullpen combo that is doing the job unnoticed. Marte And Fick just get hitters out.
On another note:
Why on earth does Texas has Chris Davis playing at AAA? I think is I were a GM I would look to see if I could possibly pick him up from Texas in a trade.
Appalling K rate.
I was just thinking of the talent AAA Memphis could see next year and it’s incredible. Look at this list of names:
Miller, Cox, Adams, Martinez, Jackson, Kelly, Swagerty, A. Perez, and the list goes on and on. I may be in the minority on this one, but I there’s even a shot Wong could see AAA late next season.
This trade deadline should make sure not all those names are there in 2012.
I’m not so sure. I don’t know if the Cardinals are willing to give away parts of their future for rentals, unless it’s for a starting pitcher that increases their chances of winning in the postseason.
Their future is now we have Lance, Albert and Carp and a shot to win, unless Carp reworks his contract a good shot 2 of the 3 will be gone next year. They aren’t going to deal the big 2 arms but everyone else is up for grabs, you don’t sacrifice a chance to win now waiting on non elite prospects making it. Plus most all guys they are after will bring back picks.
I agree that you need to take chances when you’re presented with a chance to win. It’s just really hard to envision the Cardinals beating teams like the Giants, Phillies, and/or Braves with a postseason rotation of Carpenter, Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook.
Don’t forget Pham and Sam Freeman. Both have been sidetracked by injuries but still have potential.
Oscar Taveras .460 BABIP is wild to see. If it was at .345 he would be hitting .293 and if it was .310 he would be .257 so it will be fun to watch his progression to see what type of play he becomes when literally everything stops falling.
I read a report on him that said he litterally hits everything hard. He finds the barrel of the bat on everything. If that is really the case, the why should BABIP drop drastically? OBVIOUSLY .460 is rediculous, but you can see why it’s so high. Sometimes it’s something like this that makes me wonder if he’d be better off getting promoted so he can struggle a little and see that he needs to improve other areas of his game.
If he hit everything that hard he would have far more XBH and they would have sent him to PB for a challenge and to boost his prospect ranking,
Well the kid is slugging .536 on the season and .632 his last 10 games. I’m not sure I can really ask more from a 19 year old.
I’m not asking anything from him we just don’t know what he is until he comes down into a realistic BABIP range. But a .536 SLG isn’t very high when you’re hitting .386.
He hits everything hard alot to left field so not everything would be extra base hits.
BABIP was primarily developed via research of Voros McCracken and others to measure pitching defense and luck vice persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. The league average for modern pitcher BABIP is around .300.
Hitter BABIP is much more of a skill, based on how well they are able to hit and place the ball, along with their speed. To critique Taveras’ effectiveness strictly with BABIP is misuse of the statistic. There is no such thing as a guy with a near .400 BA and a low BABIP.
There is no skill for a .467 BABIP its pure luck, if it was a Skill then Albert would have better than a career .311 BABIP!
MLB hitters BABIP in 2000′s
11 .292
10 .297
09 .299
08 .300
07 .303
06 .301
05 .295
04 .297
03 .294
02 .293
01 .296
00 .300
Albert isn’t a great candidate for a high BABIP. HR’s are excluded. He isn’t a speedy runner. He doesn’t place the ball (as much as he once did), he mashes it. He never bunts for a hit and seldom beats out infield grounders.
Ichiro, on the other hand, has a career .357 BABIP. (I doubt there is a pitching counterpart.)
Taveras hits to all fields, beats out infield hits and doesn’t have a myriad of HR’s.
Nobody is suggesting that .467 is normal. What it is… a mixture of skill, luck and speed. When a player, with skills prone to high BABIP, is overmatched to the league he is playing in, it is likely that his BABIP will be higher than league norm. Such is the case for Taveras. **A highly skilled 12 year old, for instance, will have a high BABIP playing against 8 year olds.**
ML BABIP has nothing to do with a kid whose talent overwhelms class A skills. We can rest assured that when Taveras plays at a league level commensurate with his skills, his BABIP will not be so outlandish. Until then, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a .300 BABIP. I would, however, suggest that when he was returning from injury and still nursing his hamstring, his BABIP would have suffered temporarily.
If you are going to use sabermetric tools, you must use them properly.
Honestly no shock that its you of all people trying to debunk BABIP since a Cardinal player has an ungodly high one that’s far beyond unsustainable. We get it dude no matter what every Cardinal player will keep up the stats in the minors and replicate them in the majors and Oscar has somehow found this magical skill to whip out a .467 BABIP with no luck but skill, sure thing buddy.
I bet if the Cardinals traded Colby for a guy with a .467 BABIP in the minors you wouldn’t be so excited about the stat,
That’s your standard reply when you don’t have a good one.
If you think having a .467 BABIP is based off skill I don’t need to replay with anything else since only a fool would think its sustainable.
I’m forced to let you go back to dream world were in 3 years all 25 spots on the roster will be filled with prospects or home grown talent because none can fail and even 275 pound 1B/DH can play the OF.
I was actually thinking maybe they could move a 275 pound guy to SS or 2B for when other teams slide hard in 2B trying to break up double plays. I’m also sure the guy would have the best fielding range of anyone we have seen come along in a long time.
There is some luck to it but I bet that the better hitters have better BABIP. Are you saying that Taveras doesn’t have the most skill as a hitter at Quad Cities all year?
Andrew some luck? Nobody has the skill to maintain a BABIP of .467 its amazing how blind some people are when it comes to Cardinals prospects.
Dude, the point is that when a player is advanced for a level it is not uncommon for his BABIP to get extremely high. Nobody is saying Taveras can have a BABIP of .467 for his entire career, or at every level; just that it is POSSIBLE that it is so high at Low A Ball because he is too far advanced for the level and should be promoted.
Dude, if you think that a player could have a .467 BABIP without skill you’re more ignorant than you already appear.
Everybody’s already acknowledged that this is an unsustainable BABIP. But, it doesn’t happen this deep into a season without incredible skill to go with it.
Interestingly his BABIP slipped slightly today while his slugging percentage and OPS rose. Taveras’ BABIP will drop when he is playing with commensurate talent. He is riding roughshod over this league.
Its pure luck and its just as simple as that. It’s cute you think every guy is a stud in our system but yet also think Top-20 overall prospects from other systems aren’t good enough play for us but a point needs to come when you get in touch with reality bro.
Clearly you understand nothing of BABIP or baseball in general. But, it’s good to see that you always have a fallback position to fantasize the way I see our prospects. That way, you can always say something dumb at the end of each argument and feel superior.
Its luck dude, Pujols wouldn’t put up a BABIP like that in the league! Nobody is here saying Oscar isn’t a fine prospect but you need to get real at the top of this thread AZ talking about a .377 being lucky and we’re talking .090 points north of that.
You are so caught up in you love affair with these kids you have lost touch with rational thinking when it comes to them and its always been that way dating back to Hoff as the next big thing if not longer. You do know players get lucky and unlucky and they aren’t going to all make it even our system too right?
Everyone we have even guys outside of the Top-30 are locks for the show but guys viewed as elite prospects from other organization aren’t good enough for you.
Would you trade Lynn for Jarred Cosart?
Hey, I get it little dude. When you don’t understand the argument, but know you’re floundering, start throwing in extraneous tidbits. You’ve been schooled and you can’t deal with it.
But, you will get in the last word.
Nobody suggested that there isn’t luck involved with BABIP…good and bad. But it’s mixed with other parts skill too.
Tell you what… If you can find one bonafide scout who would agree with you that a .467 BABIP after 150 AB’s doesn’t reflect any measure of skill, I’ll quit posting. If you can’t, how about you quit. I’m tired of your innocuous drivel and I’m sure others are too. You’re on re-runs and it’s tiresome.
Lance Jeffries must be more talented than Taveras than because his BABIP is .481 and was over .700 about 10 days ago. He has done that with a 4% line drive rate. Basically all that is happening in his case is that a larger than normal rate of his 70% groundballs are finding holes. He’s undoubtedly beating out some of those with his speed as well but he won’t beat most of those out as he goes up the ladder.
Sample size. 47 AB’s and 20 K’s. Moreover, it isn’t about relative talent between leagues. Are you suggesting that BABIP has nothing to do with skill?
K’s would seem irrelevant when talking about BABIP (thus the BIP part!). Let me turn the question around to you? Do you think luck has nothing to do with BABIP? IF so what percentage breakdown would you give between luck and skill? I’d say it is on average about 80% luck and 20% skill. (there is no science to my numbers just my gut feel).
When you are talking about beating out IF grounders for hits it has a lot to do with leagues. At higher levels the average infielder will be quicker and have a better arm and thus many GB’s that the player beat out for hits at a lower level will simply be outs at a higher level.
I would also guess a .475 BABIP would be in the 6 Sigma territory relative to the average professional BABIP (over an extended time). And while it is possible that Taveras is 1 in a million, I won’t stake my reputation on it.
Found some research that indicates that for pitchers BABIP is 12% related to skill and the rest related to defense, park factors and luck. BABIP for hitters is considered slightly less luck dependent so the 20% skill number looks pretty good.
20-40% would be my guess for skill… maybe more. If you’ve read thru this entire discussion you know that I don’t dispute good and bad luck for BABIP merely argue that skill/tools has to be a part of it.
This explains how players like Ichiro and Jeter carry historically high BABIP. Moreover BABIP at the ML level where talent is everywhere can’t be equated to DSL or even MWL. At those levels there are large discrepancies in talent given there are prospects and a whole lotta suspects. At that level I think skill serves a larger part of the variable.
If it were only luck then one would consider that a very lucky 8 year old might carry a high BABIP when in fact we know that his BABIP would represent very few BIP’s and likely be zero. We might also surmise that a very skilled and speedy 22 year old might carry an extraordinarily high BABIP were he to play with ten year olds. Somewhere in between we find happier mediums.
Nowhere did I suggest that Taveras will naturally carry a .470 BABIP. It does stand to reason, however, that it would take a highly skilled player to attain that high a BABIP on a sustained basis. He can bunt for hits, he can beat out hits in the infield (as he has) and he can hit the ball so hard that response time by the fielders is limited. Speed, foot and bat, plays a part in BABIP.
As I’ve suggested, when Taveras reaches a level of talent closer to his own, it only stands to reason that his BABIP will settle accordingly and luck will play a significantly larger part.
Still, one is a lot less likely to enjoy a high BABIP if their foot speed is slow, like Yadi, or if their bat speed has been slowed….for instance De Rosa in 2009 or even Scotty Rolen this year. etc.
K’s are irrelevant in BABIP as are HR’s, but surely you realize that the reference was to Lance Jeffries talent vs Taveras….not to mention the difference in their leagues. Only 27 BIP’s can forgive even a 4% LD rate whereas 121 BIP’s should have evened out some of the luck factor.
The one in a million reference is hardly applicable, no matter what Sigma territory, but he is indeed pretty unique. How many other 19 year olds have a 1.000 OPS after coming off a .889 in rookie league?
Once again, I reiterate what my original point was that BABIP norms are not the same for all ballplayers and the statistic is more predictive of luck for pitchers than it is for hitters…notwithstanding, without looking, I’d guess that Carp’s BABIP earlier this year was awfully high…given our weak defense. Then again one could say, he was unlucky to be pitching with a Cardinal defense behind him.
I understand everything I need to with you, no matter how fluky the stat is if a Cardinals prospect is doing it then its repeatable and skill even if people tell you otherwise.
So would you trade Lance Lynn for Jarred Cosart?
it is patently not true that there is no skill to BABIP. lots of batters have perennially high BABIPs. hitting a lot of line drives, hitting grounders (to a much lesser extent), and being a fast runner (to beat out infield hits) are proven to influence BABIP positively.
derek jeter, who has been playing baseball for fifteen+ seasons – an enormous sample size, has a career .354 BABIP. his hitting has gone down the toilet in the last couple seasons, but he once was a wicked line drive hitter, and continues to hit the ball on the ground a great deal. he has been wickedly fast, and remains a fairly speedy guy on the basepaths.
If it was a skill it wouldn’t fluctuate from year to year
This is an ignorant comment. Every stat is in baseball fluctuates from year to year and a good many of them are the direct result of a skill. Richard, I understand that you are trying to throw some cold water on those of us who over value Cardinals prospects, and there are quite a few of us out there, but please try to be a little more courteous with your responses. You have been using some very definite statements, particularly in regards to Matt Adams playing outfield, when there really in now way to know. Do you actually know that he cannot lose some weight this offseason? Do you really know he will never be able to play any outfield? The answer to those questions are no, you do not know definitively the answers to these questions. It is fine for you to express your doubts about them, I myself doubt that Adams will be a full time outfielder in the majors, but I think just like some people are over the top with their optimism, you have gone too far with your hate.
If BABIP was a skill it wouldn’t have such massive .030 to .080 point swings from year to year. As far as Adams in the OF anyone to ever have seen him play in person can tell he’s a natural big guy on top of being fat, you can try to lose all the weight he wants he’s always going to be big and its only going to increase as he fully matures.
A lot of it is luck, but skill plays a part, especially on the extreme ends (guys like Ichiro that regularly get infield singles) and when player’s are far advanced for their level.
Skill plays a minor part, if it was about Skill Ichiro wouldn’t have swings from year to year like .333 to .399 to .316 and then back on the roller coaster up some then up big then big back to a big drop.
Exactly. In the short term, or even from year-to-year, luck can play a large role in BABIP, but in terms of predicting future performance you look at a player’s skill and hope luck plays neutral.
Luck plays the major, major role in BABIP you can only get so high on skill and then big time luck kicks in. If someone had the ability to maintain a next level BABIP then I could conceded it as a skill but nobody can.
From year-to-year luck plays a major role, yes. However, over the long run, skill does present itself.
It’s analogous to the way batting average plays out over months versus a season. Batting averages are often highly volatile from month to month, but over a full season are much more stable from year to year.
Similarly, BABIP is usually very unstable from year to year, but over the course of a few years, a pattern does emerge.
“If BABIP was a skill it wouldn’t have such massive .030 to .080 point swings from year to year.”
Re-write that comment substituting “Batting average” for “BABIP” and you’ll see how patently wrong it is.
So you wouldn’t call a hitter having a 20% swing on his average year having a fluke or lucky season?
That statement is entirely too black and white in an area (skill identification) with lots of grey. Does BABIP fluctuate highly from year to year? Yes. Does it eventually settle down over enough PAs? Also yes, and therefore has some level of skill. I haven’t done the research to give you the number of PAs, but I’m sure someone has.
What does that all mean? It basically boils down to how much you regress his current BABIP (based on batted ball type if you want) towards the averages. No skill would mean you’d regress 100% towards average, but in reality there’s a better number, say 75% or 85% (numbers notional).
Derek Carty has done a couple pieces on this. He has BABIP for hitters stabilizing after 2.4 years. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14215)
This is based on the majors though. I think it’s relatively safe to assume that everything takes longer to stabilize in the minors given that 90% of the players are still learning and you haven’t really seen who the survivors are yet.
By that logic, batting average, on-base percentage, HRs, SBs, etc. are all not skills.
C’mon man, things are a blend of both skill and luck.
His career average is .329, seems there is something amiss with a stat that doesn’t match the raw BA number.
We may disagree on this but I don’t fully by BABIP. When a player is squaring the ball well and hitting it hard his BABIP will be higher. I haven’t seen Taveras since that first 4 game series of the year but he hit the ball harder than anyone else on the field. It reasons if someone is scorching line drives they will have a higher BABIP.
Yes, players with higher LD rates tend to have higher BABIP’s but Tavares’ LD rate is only slightly above average. Certainly not justifying such a high BABIP.
How do they determine whats a line drive? as opposed to a fly ball.
How do you determine what is a scorching line drive?
I can determine them based on what i see but I only saw him play the first 3 and a half games of the year before he got injured. It was an actual question I don’t know in terms of the LD% how its determined. On the offical scorecard do they differential between line drives and fly balls and pop ups?
I dont think it is on the official scorecard but minor league baseball pays someone to note it (I’m not positive on this though). In any case it is eyeballed just like your evaluation.
Taveras’ LD% is 18.8, so not particularly high. His wOBAr is .346, which is good but just above average. For example, Packy Elkins has a .362 wOBAr and Michael Swinson has a .345 wOBAr.
Kolten Wong’s is .412, which is really good.
Taveras’ “great” year is mainly a function of a fluky BABIP. I like him as a prospect but let’s not go around….popsicles yet.
Its getting crazy with his BABIP which is now a at .465 after the single in the first tonight!
great day for the cardinal big name prospects.. c-mart continues to impress..can’t wait to see what he can do in springfield..anyone thinks he will start in springfield next year if he dominates in spring training?
Yes, I think it’s very likely Carlos starts in SPR next year.
Carlos to Springfield and Shelby to Memphis!
I think there is a legit possibility that Miller could break camp with the club. If he doesn’t he will get a call not long after the season starts IMO. Obviously this is assuming he finishes the year strong which I think we all assume he will.
Some real argument with Adams – reality is, the guy rakes and will make it to the majors. Where he plays and with who is to be determined but I think we should enjoy it while we can