Before anything else this afternoon, I can tell that I again need to offer a commenting admonition. I’ve privately sent e-mails to a handful of people now about the tone of their posts. We don’t have a lot of rules here; the conversation has generally increased this year and I’m happy to see additional discourse. Unfortunately some of that discourse is becoming increasingly hostile and/or personal in nature.
That’s got to stop. This is my public admonition. If you don’t think this warning applies to you, it probably doesn’t. If you think it might apply to you, read your comments over one extra time before posting them. After this I start stepping up the moderation which probably ends with someone getting banned. So if you don’t like what a certain poster has to say, don’t read their comments. There’s a huge area of subjectivity with regards to prospects, their skills and their long term projection — it’s not often that someone is definitively right or wrong. Just be civil; ultimately, that shouldn’t be such a hard thing to do.
I’m indisposed at work today and didn’t manage to write something up in advance so here’s some quick links to tide you over.
- A nice follow up to the tragic news of PJ Walters personal life last year. I’ve been a skeptic of Walters abilities at the major league level but I wish him and his family nothing in the best with their upcoming child and their personal lives. I hope everything goes smoothly until the next arrival in the Walters’ household.
- John Sickels checks in on a couple of the Cardinals prospects that he had deemed sleepers. John Gast has been a bit of a revelation to me. I was not high on him at draft time (quite the opposite) but I’ve been told he’s showing better velocity than in college and the results have been good thus far.
- Kary Booher visits with Shane Robinson has he returns from the nasty collision with Memphis outfielder Andrew Brown.
- It’s time for silly midseason prospect list updates (there’s a reason I don’t do these) from around the internet: ESPN’s Keith Law, Baseball America’s Jim Callis, Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein. Short version: Shelby Miller is a consensus top 10 and Carlos Martinez is a consensus top 25.
- Oscar Taveras makes Goldstein’s Monday Morning Ten Pack and if you read into the comments a bit, it looks like Goldstein would consider Taveras a top 100 prospect.
Entries (RSS)
The one subscription I don’t own that I wish I did….Baseball Prospectus. Can anyone shed some light on what Goldstein says about Taveras? BTW – I am getting the distinct impression that many of the big name analysts are considering (or already consider) Taveras as a Top 100 prospect. I have read many chats lately with questions on Taveras and I get the feeling that Top 100, if he stays healthy and productive, will happen by years end. And I personally have Taveras as the best position player prospect we have from an upside perspective. I’m sure I will get some argument on that statement which is fine. I have been a big believer in Taveras and its nice to see him getting press outside of the inner Cards prospect circle.
Goldstein says that most of OT’s value is in his bat speed. Also says he has a good arm and profiles as a corner outfielder in the majors … if he can stay healthy.
I’ll worry about his injury history when he has a history, as opposed to a single event that he later aggravated.
I don’t think you’ll get much argument about OT’s status as potentially our highest-upside prospect. When a 19-year-old hits like this against older players in a full-season league, how could anyone argue against his potential?
Yeah, while being injured a lot this year it’s really nothing to worry about. The first, as you point out, is a hamstring injury that was later re-aggravated. Then he got hit in the leg and had a deep bone bruise. He can’t control that.
Going forward he should be good. Hopefully a little luckier.
It looks like he said that Taveras might have received more consideration for his top 50 if he didn’t have so many hamstring issues. He’s one of the best hitters in the midwest league.
It was indeed hurtful to his prospect rating that Taveras hot start was undermined by hamstring issues. His success immediately after the second return may also have slowed him a bit. However, a good home stretch should fix a lot of that.
You just have to wonder how many more HR’s, 2B’s etc he would have amassed with consistent playing time. I think it’s safe to say, he isn’t sneaking up on anybody any more.
Here’s hoping he remains healthy from here on.
Thanks guys! Anyone have an idea on his speed. I thought prior to his hamstring injuries he had good speed. Am I just dreaming this up? If that is the case is there a reason why he would have to be a corner OF and not a CF? Just looking for some feedback on this topic.
I saw him the first 4 games of the year and he has very good speed. In fact he beat out a hard ground ball to the second baseman for his final hit of that series. It was that play where he strained his hamstring. The ball was hit hard to the second baseman and he still beat it out.
He has played some center but I think the Cardinals want to keep Longmire in CF as long as they can.
Thats kind of funny because I have been touting Longmire as a future plus RF! Realistically even if they want to keep Longmire in CF as long as possible that should have no impact on if Taveras should be a CF as well. Obviously a CF has more value than a corner outfield so I would be surprised if that was the reason why Taveras is not playing CF.
BTW – thanks for the info on his speed…I thought he was known for having good speed so its good to know I wasn’t dreaming that up!
He just looks like a future corner outfielder. Heck, he’s only 19 and is already a big lanky guy. He’ll fill out and probably loose a little speed. He’s built a little like Vlad Guerrero and I kind of think he’ll physically look a lot like him as he gets older.
more links —
sickels did an “all questions answered” thread over the weekend and commented on whether taveras and adams were in the top 100. looks like “yes” for taveras and “maybe” for matt adams.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/16/2278836/weekend-all-questions-answered-thread#comments
BA’s hot sheet is out. wong, taveras and cox were noted as having nice weeks. tyrell jenkins got a shout out and wagner mateo made an appearance in the not so hot sheet.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2612107.html
Sir, thanks for addressing this issue on rants in ppl posts..This is indeed sad, however, it appears that ppl are trying to get their point out there with out reguard to anyone else’s opinion, just be civil..I enjoy coming here after spending time on Cards Talk at the STL PD, with all the name calling and rants…Thank you again sir….sp
So Taveras looks like he will be in Goldstein’s Top 100 and obviously Martinez and Miller are Top 25. Is there anybody else with a reasonable shot to make his Top 100? I know in the end prospect lists don’t mean squat, but having 3-4 Top 100 type guys would mark a pretty drastic turnaround from the dark days of the farm system.
Cox most certainly will be in any Top 100 list. Jenkins if he continues to improve the 2nd half will as well. Wong has a shot as well especially if he continues impressing scouts early on in his pro career like he has been so far. Adams will get consideration and if he continues to rake the 2nd half of the year I am not sure you can keep him out of the back portion of that list. Not sure we have anyone else in the discussion.
I’m not so sure about Cox. I know KG isn’t high on him and without *much* power, he doesn’t have the same bat as most 3B prospects especially when there are questions on his D. I have a feeling if KLaw has him, it will be towards the very tail end of his top 100.
Depending on how he finishes the year I see him in the 60-80 range unless he shows a big boast in power then it will be higher IMO. Everything’s debatable but I envision all major publications having Cox in the Top 100 for sure.
Pretty sure Law dislikes Cox, so I’d be surprised if he’s in, although he did like our 2010 draft a lot. I think Sickels isn’t a believer either (unless I’m wrong).
I’d be pretty surprised if Cox is in anyone’s top 100. I’m not sure he’s in my Cards top 10 anymore (I did one at VEB the other day and I think he came in 12th).
KG already had Jenkins ahead of Cox, so I don’t think that happens. I’d wager that we end up with 4-5 prospects in most top-100 lists, which is around what we should be having each year.
Miller/Martinez/Jenkins/Taveras/Adams will make a bunch of top-100 lists.
KG was asked about top-100 and he said yes on Taveras and Adams, no on Cox and Wong. Things can change between now and then though.
More accurately, he was “doubtful” on Cox and Wong (and “maybe” on Jenkins), based on information at hand. I don’t think this is unreasonable. Top 100 is a very high standing that neither Cox nor Wong have earned yet. At the present rate, I would be not the least bit surprised to see Wong on KG’s 2012 list (and others), if he continues to rake for the rest of the year. Cox has had a bit more time to establish what he is, and I think he’s the longer shot to make KG’s list.
If Wong keeps going, he’ll be on the 2013 list, I suspect.
I’ve seen both Tyrell Jenkins (Law had him at #47) and Matt Adams getting some love from both Law and KG. I’d say they are right there. Also, don’t sleep on Zack Cox. He could fall in around 75-80 if he continues to do well.
I’d guess that Cox would miss most Top 100 lists if they were published tomorrow, but if he hits as well as advertised in the 2nd half he’ll likely be included in all of them.
Cox (probable), Jenkins (probable), Adams (maybe), and Wong (maybe). I think Wong has a better shot than Adams if Wong keeps raking, just based on pedigree and position.
Update on this — Kevin Goldstein said in the comments on his article today that Taveras and Adams would both be in his Top 100 if he published it today. He said Tyrell Jenkins was a maybe, and that Cox and Wong were doubtful.
As far as projecting others, I know Keith Law is a fan of Tyrell Jenkins and had him in his Top 50, and has had nice things to say about Adams and Taveras. I would guess that right now KLaw would have Miller, Martinez, Jenkins, Taveras, and Adams in his Top 100.
I’ve not seen Adams play, only look at his numb3rs. What I see is scary. it isn’t only this year, it’s been every year. Can someone explain why he is not rated higher? I mean, Albert didn’t have numb3rs like this! He looks, at least, like a big trading chip. I keep thinkiing of the A’s pitchers and their total lack of hitting.
Its very hard for a 1B to impress enough offensively to be on the list unless you were a high draft pick as those guys have a lot of press. Adams continuing to rake in the upper minors is the thing getting him consideration now. Thats the best explanation I can give.
It isn’t so much about being a high (or not) draft pick as it is that the scouts simply don’t know what to make of him. Below AA, scouts consider the way a guy plays (and “looks” as he’s playing) as strongly as they consider his statistics, or more. This view is based in no small part on scouts’ years of experience in watching the guys that have made it, as well as those who haven’t, and comparing future prospects to past successes and washouts (I don’t use the term “failures” because anyone who plays at at least the AAA level has been more “successful” at baseball than most people will be at ANYTHING). There is so little history of Adams-like players (in a physical/skills sense) in the minors that scouts have little prior experience to go on. Goldstein, Callis, Law, etc., are reflecting that uncertainty in their own views and rankings of him.
i think this is very well-said. not a lot of 260-280 lb. first basemen who walk 7% of the time out there.
He’s not rated more highly because of pedigree (a low round draft choice out of a small school) and position (1B). People are coming around on him though.
I’ll have to disagree about Albert though. As a 3B, Albert had more than 50 points of OPS on Adams being a year younger in the Midwest league and Albert had more walks than strikeouts.
Adams hit well last year in QC, but not like this year. This summer he worked with a hitting coach and changed his approach to being a little more aggressive with a bit more compact swing. Interestingly, if anything, his power was enhanced.
It’s been a slow rise to acceptance because his year in rookie was good but not spectacular, QC was very good but not great, and this year, finally, pretty much spectacular. That he jumped two levels and is young for his level is forcing the scouts to double take. Truthfully, they seems to be waiting for him to falter. It just isn’t happening. A slump for Adams is like a 1 for 5 games.
Yeah, the first base gig is part of it. The lack of walks, even though by design, is another part. For a first baseman to get on the list, you either need to hit 40 HR’s or push thru AA at 20 years of age… In other words, the odds aren’t great. Still, Matt will draw close to 40 if not reach it, and if he continues to play the way he has, I don’t think they have a lot of choice but to sneak him in the back door.
This winter…not summer.
The only thing to change is he went to an extreme hitters league and plays in that leagues best hitters park.
That’s so important that half of his HR’s and half of his doubles before tonight were away games.
The league is a hitters league not sure why you are choosing to ignore that facts of that but he does have one more home HR in 24 less AB and a OPS split of .946 vs 1.134 but who’s counting.
I have a quick question for you, did Ryan Jackson just find power this year in your book or does playing in the Texas League play a major role in it? Remember we are talking about a guy with 3 HR in 695 AB prior to this year and now 8 in 349 AB this year with 6 of those in 172 home AB.
Everybody knows it’s a hitter’s league. How could they not know. You’ve mentioned it in every single post. You’ve also mentioned that it’s a launching pad stadium. Half of his singles, half of his doubles, half of his triples, and until tonight half of his HR’s were in other ballparks…some which are not considered launching pads.
Adams has more HR’s than anyone but one player in the league and quite a bit fewer at bats than the league leader.
What is more important but doesn’t serve your agenda is that he’s doing all this damage against the best pitching in the minors. AA is where the hot shots are. In AA where he had to skip a level to hit.
Who cares if you aren’t impressed.
Moreover, who cares how many HR’s Jackson has? He has 22 doubles and a great glove. Nobody expects him to be a long ball hitter, they expect him to be a gap hitter, which he is.
One park doesn’t earn a league the title of being a hitters league alone there are other big hitters parks out there. He also had 29 more road AB heading into today, so if he was truly splitting his numbers down the middle he wouldn’t have almost a .200 points higher OPS at home now would he?
Also where is all this “best pitching in the minors” located at in the Texas league the league average ERA was 4.61 before today’s 60 ER allowed in the 4 games played?
Nothing has changed form his 2010 season except he plays in more hitters parks after doing almost all of his damage in the HR friendly Modern Woodmen Park with QC last year the same park where Oscar Taveras is doing all his damage and the same one S Miller had a 6 ERA at in his time there.
I get that it’s important to throw cold water on our prospect hopes every once in a while, but what’s your point here? Are you saying Matt Adams is not a real prospect or a good prospect?
It’s not just us here at FR that like him; KG and KLaw have indicated he is a guy getting a lot of Top 100 consideration, and they are relatively objective talent evaluators. I don’t think anyone here is saying Adams is Gehrig or Pujols, but I think there are plenty of reasons to be excited about him as a prospect.
I’m not saying Adams isn’t a prospect the point is HCF and a few others think having inflated numbers in a hitters league somehow entitles you to be a good major league player and carry over a semblance of those numbers to the majors.
But that’s just not how it works here are the OPS leaders of .980 or higher in AAA/AA over the 2010-2005 range with their MLB OPS.
1.123 Nelson Cruz .834
1.120 Todd Linden .638
1.090 Joe Dillon .722
1.076 Geovany Soto .814
1.076 Kevin Orie .709
1.074 Randy Ruiz .820
1.060 Kila Ka’aihue .683
1.057 John Lindsey .237
1.053 Dan Johnson .738
1.047 John Bowker .679
1.035 Clint Robinson NA
1.033 Tagg Bozied NA
1.025 Rick Short 1.404 in 15 AB at 32
1.019 Brian Myrow .534
1.017 Sean Rodriguez .677
1.016 Jack Cust .814
1.016 Chase Headley .736
1.016 Alex Gordon .755
1.015 Mitch Jones .785
1.011 Chris Carter .506 in 100 AB still young
1.010 Conor Jackson .764
1.009 Jamie D’Antona .440
1.009 Andy Green .547
1.002 Justin Huber .580
.998 Dallas McPherson .738
.997 Scott Hairston .744
.994 Ryan Shealy .755
.993 Josh Whitesell .665
.986 J.P. Arencibia .677 in 294 AB still young
.986 Lou Montanez .589
.986 Brandon Guyer .833 in 6 AB still young
.985 Terrmel Sledge .745
.980 Joe Koshansky .676
.980 Jason Botts .669
Around 90% of these came from the PCL and Texas leagues and only a very few found starting jobs in the majors and none have maintained close to the inflated minor league OPS.
Rich,
Instead of using OPS try something that is park and league adjusted like wRC+. As someone who isn’t particularly high on Adams, I think you’ve swung the pendulum too far the other way. He’s a very unorthodox player. The odds may still be against him but he’s a legit prospect. He just does things (super high average, super low walk rate, tons of power) in a different way than anyone we’ve seen in years. That doesn’t mean it won’t work.
RR – let’s weed out the guys on that list that are significantly older than 22 and that didn’t skip high A ball and then the list will have some meaning.
He has 24 more AB’s away and 13 more K’s. Are those K’s park adjusted? So your effectively quibbling about 11 BIP’s.
Adams has the highest slugging percentage in AA. He has the second most HR’s…and a potful of doubles. For an extreme hitters league and one of the youngest players there, he’s doing relatively well compared to the rest of the league. Wouldn’t you say?
For the record he’s 2nd in SLG and tied for 3rd in HR at AA but he also plays in the best hitters park in all of AA in the best hitters league of the 3 AA leagues but yes he’s doing fine, But that’s the point he’s doing good there but it doesn’t mean he will ever be anything at the next level.
That’s my main beef with you man. You take every guy with any numbers and start projecting them as future starters and untouchable at the deadline all while knocking other clubs players even when those guys are more regarded than most every one of our kids.
I just would like you to use a little rational thinking when talking about a business where even the most coveted players fail at an amazing clip.
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
He has a 159 wRC+ in the Texas League. That means he’s nearly 60% better than average compared to other AA players — that’s a park and league adjusted stat.
Memphis just got no-hit by Luis Mendoza in controversial fashion as Tyler Greene hit a double called a error by the Memphis scorekeeper to leadoff the 9th. Mendoza threw a 1 hitter in a 7 inning DH game in his last start.
Correction Mendoza’s 1 hitter in the last start was 9 inning game and he lost it in the 8th with no outs.
I’ve righted a wrong and joined Sickels’ Minor League Baseball. I have absolutely no excuse for waiting this long.