Comments on: Monday Miscellany

By: Felonius_Monk

Felonius_Monk — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 11:27:43 +0000

Pretty sure Law dislikes Cox, so I’d be surprised if he’s in, although he did like our 2010 draft a lot. I think Sickels isn’t a believer either (unless I’m wrong).

I’d be pretty surprised if Cox is in anyone’s top 100. I’m not sure he’s in my Cards top 10 anymore (I did one at VEB the other day and I think he came in 12th).

By: cariocacardinal

cariocacardinal — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 18:24:21 +0000

RR – let’s weed out the guys on that list that are significantly older than 22 and that didn’t skip high A ball and then the list will have some meaning.

By: Gruntosaurus

Gruntosaurus — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 16:59:57 +0000

More accurately, he was “doubtful” on Cox and Wong (and “maybe” on Jenkins), based on information at hand. I don’t think this is unreasonable. Top 100 is a very high standing that neither Cox nor Wong have earned yet. At the present rate, I would be not the least bit surprised to see Wong on KG’s 2012 list (and others), if he continues to rake for the rest of the year. Cox has had a bit more time to establish what he is, and I think he’s the longer shot to make KG’s list.

If Wong keeps going, he’ll be on the 2013 list, I suspect.

By: Vision

Vision — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:12:46 +0000

KG already had Jenkins ahead of Cox, so I don’t think that happens. I’d wager that we end up with 4-5 prospects in most top-100 lists, which is around what we should be having each year.

Miller/Martinez/Jenkins/Taveras/Adams will make a bunch of top-100 lists.

KG was asked about top-100 and he said yes on Taveras and Adams, no on Cox and Wong. Things can change between now and then though.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 12:53:56 +0000

He has a 159 wRC+ in the Texas League. That means he’s nearly 60% better than average compared to other AA players — that’s a park and league adjusted stat.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 12:51:10 +0000

Rich,

Instead of using OPS try something that is park and league adjusted like wRC+. As someone who isn’t particularly high on Adams, I think you’ve swung the pendulum too far the other way. He’s a very unorthodox player. The odds may still be against him but he’s a legit prospect. He just does things (super high average, super low walk rate, tons of power) in a different way than anyone we’ve seen in years. That doesn’t mean it won’t work.

By: RichardRich

RichardRich — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 07:19:30 +0000

For the record he’s 2nd in SLG and tied for 3rd in HR at AA but he also plays in the best hitters park in all of AA in the best hitters league of the 3 AA leagues but yes he’s doing fine, But that’s the point he’s doing good there but it doesn’t mean he will ever be anything at the next level.

That’s my main beef with you man. You take every guy with any numbers and start projecting them as future starters and untouchable at the deadline all while knocking other clubs players even when those guys are more regarded than most every one of our kids.

I just would like you to use a little rational thinking when talking about a business where even the most coveted players fail at an amazing clip.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

By: Hugecardsfan

Hugecardsfan — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 06:46:55 +0000

He has 24 more AB’s away and 13 more K’s. Are those K’s park adjusted? So your effectively quibbling about 11 BIP’s.

Adams has the highest slugging percentage in AA. He has the second most HR’s…and a potful of doubles. For an extreme hitters league and one of the youngest players there, he’s doing relatively well compared to the rest of the league. Wouldn’t you say?

By: RichardRich

RichardRich — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 06:39:40 +0000

I’m not saying Adams isn’t a prospect the point is HCF and a few others think having inflated numbers in a hitters league somehow entitles you to be a good major league player and carry over a semblance of those numbers to the majors.

But that’s just not how it works here are the OPS leaders of .980 or higher in AAA/AA over the 2010-2005 range with their MLB OPS.

1.123 Nelson Cruz .834
1.120 Todd Linden .638
1.090 Joe Dillon .722
1.076 Geovany Soto .814
1.076 Kevin Orie .709
1.074 Randy Ruiz .820
1.060 Kila Ka’aihue .683
1.057 John Lindsey .237
1.053 Dan Johnson .738
1.047 John Bowker .679
1.035 Clint Robinson NA
1.033 Tagg Bozied NA
1.025 Rick Short 1.404 in 15 AB at 32
1.019 Brian Myrow .534
1.017 Sean Rodriguez .677
1.016 Jack Cust .814
1.016 Chase Headley .736
1.016 Alex Gordon .755
1.015 Mitch Jones .785
1.011 Chris Carter .506 in 100 AB still young
1.010 Conor Jackson .764
1.009 Jamie D’Antona .440
1.009 Andy Green .547
1.002 Justin Huber .580
.998 Dallas McPherson .738
.997 Scott Hairston .744
.994 Ryan Shealy .755
.993 Josh Whitesell .665
.986 J.P. Arencibia .677 in 294 AB still young
.986 Lou Montanez .589
.986 Brandon Guyer .833 in 6 AB still young
.985 Terrmel Sledge .745
.980 Joe Koshansky .676
.980 Jason Botts .669

Around 90% of these came from the PCL and Texas leagues and only a very few found starting jobs in the majors and none have maintained close to the inflated minor league OPS.

By: Cardinals645

Cardinals645 — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 06:17:22 +0000

I get that it’s important to throw cold water on our prospect hopes every once in a while, but what’s your point here? Are you saying Matt Adams is not a real prospect or a good prospect?

It’s not just us here at FR that like him; KG and KLaw have indicated he is a guy getting a lot of Top 100 consideration, and they are relatively objective talent evaluators. I don’t think anyone here is saying Adams is Gehrig or Pujols, but I think there are plenty of reasons to be excited about him as a prospect.