Raiding the Farm: Trade Bait Edition
Posted on July 20th, 2011 by Jeff in Trade rumors, TransactionsWith the Cardinals lingering around the area of first place in the NL Central behind the juggernaut that is the Pittsburgh Pirates and with several areas that need obvious help in the back of the rotation and the bullpen. I’m not here to talk about who the Cardinals will be bringing in, but who will be going out.
Let’s start with two assumptions; first, the Cardinals have said that they are not trading anyone from the major league team right now. Secondly, Miller, Martinez are off limits and let’s throw in Jenkins, Cox and Wong in that category as well. Jenkins for his distance from the majors and value to the Cards, Cox because of his contract and 40 man roster requirement and Wong because he cannot be traded as he was just drafted.
Once you get beyond the potential top 5 above, the Cardinals probably will be trading from their system strength, which is pitching and especially right-handed pitching. If another team sees Joe Kelly as a starter, he could be a part of a deal with his strong ground ball rate and solid strike out rate. I know that not everyone sees him as a starter going forward, so the values on him might vary wildly.
Matt Adams is another good candidate as the Cardinals have seemingly been showcasing him in Springfield instead of moving him up to a harder challenge in Memphis. He is redundant in the long term if the Cardinals resign Albert Pujols, if they do not, Adams will need to have a larger role for the franchise going forward. Matt Adams value does take a hit because he is limited to 1st base or DH, which most teams have filled with one-dimensional sluggers already in the pipeline.
Other pitching options are John Gast, pickoff specialist, Jordan Swagerty, who has pitched well of late and looks like a solid rotation prospect, Maikel Cleto has seemingly been showcased as well with popping radar guns with triple digits. It may be my HPGF-colored glasses, but Cleto has upped his trade value since he came to the Cardinals in exchange for Brendan Ryan. I would imagine the Cardinals would not trade Oscar Taveras as he is a bit of a diamond in the rough at this point and probably would not return a lot of value until he starts playing consistently in more upper-level leagues.
The problem is that one of these players is not going to return a major league haul and will need to be packaged with 2-3 other players.
Who do you think is poised to be dealt and who do you think has the most value to other teams at this point?
Entries (RSS)
I would not at all be surprised if Matt Carpenter was traded; he’s gonna get a shot at the majors and I’m not sure it’s going to be with the Cards
I think Matt Adams is a really interesting case. He seems to be the best replacement for Pujols if he goes elsewhere. However, we won’t know what Albert’s doing until, in my opinion, January. So what do we do about Adams? I think he has the most value of any position player in our system. I think we could get a quality player in return for him. However, do we trade our best 1B in the minors not knowing if Albert will be back?
If it were me, and I felt I was getting equal or better return in a trade for Adams, I’m dealing him. Personally, I think Albert resigns. However, even if he doesn’t, I think a stop-gap of Berkman for a year or two could be enough time for another prospect to appear worthy of manning the position or a FA signing.
It’s also possible as Holliday hits his mid-30s that he might have to play some 1B to save his legs a bit.
What about Ottavino?
Ottavino is off limits as in untouchable… just like Adams, Cox, Miller, Martinez, Gast, and Kelly
Ottavino would only be filler IMO, every team in the league could have had him for basically free last year and they all passed so if he had value in other teams eyes they would have took the risk on the small waiver price to check out his health.
I agree that Ottavino is not untouchable. I, and the Cardinals, would be delighted if they could get a player for him that could help now.
Also I hadn’t heard that the FO has said they won’t trade andy current members of the team.
I would probably put Cox in there too, if the Cardinals no longer think he is going to be a star but his trade value is still high he could be gone ala Wallace or Barton. Would Ryan Jackson interest anybody or Matt Carpenter? There is not a lot of value at AAA or AA, and it would be a shame to throw in a pitcher like Rosenthal when he probably does not have a whole lot of value not having made it past QC yet.
When did they think Cox was ever think he was going to be a star?
I think Carpenter might get moved, which is unfortunate because I really think they’ll be selling quite low and someone will get a bargain. If Cox is worth more in trade I’d definitely rather they moved him.
This question just came up at BP too, and Kevin Goldstein’s first name out of the box was Trevor Rosenthal. He mentioned Adron Chambers as a possible “extra,” and said that the brassier trade partners might ask for Oscar Taveras. (If so, I hope Mo tells them where they can stuff their brass. I would NOT trade that guy for anything less than a rather major star, or at least part of one. One third of Heath Bell for one season is not worth Oscar Taveras.)
The Cardinals (TINSTAAPP) are in the remarkable position (TINSTAAPP) of being able to use pitching prospects (TINSTAAPP) in a trade-from-depth way (TINSTAAPP). Subtract any two out of Swagerty/Rosenthal/Cleto/Gast, and there is still a very strong pitching nucleus in the minors, even as a strong trade package is assembled.
Agree with the Swagerty/Rosenthal/Cleto/Gast group as possible trade chips.
If Mozeliak is actually speaking candidly about not wanting to move anybody currently on the major league roster, then I think you have to think of players like M Carpenter or Cox as strong possibilities as well. Essentially those two bring the same sort of offensive skill sets to the same defensive position. As a result, there may not be a need to have both around in the upper levels of the system. Just my thought.
Both Cox and Carpenter are on the 40-man roster, too. They will have to clear at least one spot on the 40-man if they add a player. The easiest way to do that is deal someone from the 40-man. I doubt Cox goes anywhere this year. Maybe in the offseason or next year when he’s at AAA.
Hadn’t even considered the 40-man roster issue. That makes even more sense. To be truthful, I like Cox and Carpenter both. But I think somebody like M Carpenter deserves/needs a shot somewhere else. We’re almost running into a numbers problem thing at third base. I actually like Freese, too. But he strikes me as a player who is always going to spend a month or two every summer on the DL for protracted periods of time. For that reason, I’d like to see them all stay. But keeping Cox and Carpenter both seems sort of redundant if we’re viewing the third base position going forward.
the 40-man issue may be resolved, depending on what happens with sanchez, who could take a spot on the 60-day DL, if the shoulder is as bad as i think.
I’m doubtful that Swagerty has significant trade value and I question Jeff’s characterization of him as a rotation prospect. Is he suggesting that the move to the bullpen is just to limit his innings? He has often been tagged as a future reliever, possibly a Gregerson type. I don’t relish the idea of trading for the next Khalil Greene.
Why would Swagerty have no value? He’s a prospect that could be fast tracked if a team needs a reliever. He played for a major college program and succeeded and he’s doing great in his first year as a pro. He also has big league stuff. Why would he not be a rotational prospect? He’s learned 2 new pitches this year, he knows HOW to pitch and has pretty good stuff. Not seeing what else you want? Not every prospect can have the stuff of a Miller or Martinez.
According to everything I’ve read on this site and others Swagerty was moved to the bullpen because of an innings limit.
The team has even said it was to keep the innings down. He only relieved in college so he quickly went over his all time innings total. The organization still sees him as a starter not a reliever.
Possibilities for me are Rosenthal, because he has upside and would be desirable, but he doesn’t have a blue-chip price tag and would be a good secondary or third piece in a trade; Matt Adams, because he’s a bat-only prospect limited to one position, and those typically don’t stick in St. Louis. Plus I think they’ll get the deal with El Hombre dones. Third for me would be Carpenter and Cox, because I think the organization thinks higher of Freese’s abilities than Carpenter’s, and Cox has hit well enough in his first year to maintain some value. . .but like the Walrus, organization realizes he won’t cut it where he profiles offensively the best (2B), and I think organization prefers Freese’s skill set at the hot corner.
Only way I’d trade Taveras is if the package includes someone young and relatively cost-controlled, like a secondary piece involving someone like Hellickson.
Wouldn’t make sense to trade Rosenthal or Tavarez at this point to me. They seem to have too much upside to hand over before they can develop more legit value.
Agree about Taveras. I’d be willing to talk Rosenthal, though. He’s less unique, if that makes any type of sense. Plus, I’m not as high on him as I once was.
what’s your reason for that? just curious
I just feel that he doesn’t have a unique trait (i.e., major power) and is part of a lot of good right handed starting/possible future bullpen arms in the organization.
I don’t know, maybe it’s unfounded. I’ve tried to watch him pitch twice and have failed each time but nevertheless, his not getting promoted to Palm Beach at all this year strikes me not only as odd, but very disappointing coming off his spring training hype.
I could, and am very possibly wrong. Hope so. But if a trade arrived and Trevor Rosenthal stood in the way of acquiring something that would greatly help the parent club, I’d make the deal.
Law or Callis (forget which one) said last week that Rosenthal had a plus, plus fastball – that would seem pretty unique.
From what I saw Rosenthal, he has a plus fastball, he sits about 94-95 now rather than the 97 he did in the first game i saw him. He’s toned it down some to find a right mix of of power and stamina. He doesn’t seem to get hit very hard and he is a great groundball tendencies. Not sure what not to like about him.
For Taveras, it’s hard to see how he’s going to have more legit value later, if he’s cracking top 100 lists now because of helium. Sure, he may make it to top 25 or even top 10 , but if the Cards legitimately expect that, then he’s untouchable anyway. And, of course, there are enough red flags (like walk rate and BABIP) that it’s possible he loses his helium at higher levels.
How is BABIP a red flag?
Because it is not possible for a guy (heck, probably even Albert Pujols) to be a true-talent .500 BABIP hitter at any level. With some of the shanky defense you see in the low minors, maybe .400 is a possibility but it’s pretty certain that (despite his obvious massive amount of power and the fact he’s dominating the league) his numbers this year have a little bit of a lucky sheen to them (and I say this as a huge Taveras fan). If his in-play numbers suddenly go from lucky to UNlucky, his overall stats will look worse (which could, I guess, happen when he moves up to PB).
I think it’s almost certain that his BABIP will fluctuate. Every player’s does. But, how does that make it a red flag. Clearly the kid has remarkable talent. We can’t sell high on a 19 year old sitting in low A and expect to get great value.
Only too often our “evaluators” are afraid that the bright light will flame out, ala Brian Anderson, so we must trade while the iron is hot. Anderson was never in a position to acquire elite proven talent and neither will Taveras until he has worked his way to/thru the upper minors.
Sure his BABIP is astronomical. We’ve had the discussion that talent and luck are co conspirators. If this kid has impressed enough that he may become a top prospect, then scouts are recognizing what we suspect.
I don’t see BABIP as any kind of red flag. Simply an acknowledgement that he’s good enough to soar. When we find out what his downside is, then we’ll know what we’ve got.
If he falters in Palm Beach…he falters. But, if he continues to perform well and shores up his defense, we’re going to be darned happy we didn’t read anything goofy in an unsustainably high BABIP.
The truism that pitchers can’t affect their BABIP-against very much is not quite so valid for hitters. Yes, a long-term BABIP of .500 is completely unrealistic to expect for Taveras, or even Pujols. A BABIP of over .350 may not be; there are (very good) major leaguers who manage that. A stratospherically high BABIP may not be sustainable, but it at least poses the question as to whether, on a continuing basis, he’ll be one of those guys who can sustain a far-above-average rate, even if not as high as what he’s doing right now.
The more I see or hear of Oscar Taveras, the more exciting I find him. This could be a special player.
I see people say this all the time but it seems too many players look at numbers and project from there. The kid is 19 years old and has only played in America for a very short time. Do you not think that a hitter can learn to be more selective? People have gone over the BABIP argument so its not worth getting into again. I can say this in the gave ive say him live he hit the ball harder, more consistently than anyone on the field. I believe he went 6 for 10 with 2 home runs, 2 doubles. He never hit the ball weakly and he didn teven foul a ball off every time he connected he barrelled it and hit it hard and solid.
Matt Carpenter: Freese in front; Cox and De La Cruz behind. I think his on base track record will also turn some teams on
Matt Adams: I doubt he would be traded, but he might be the player of most value that we’d be willing to part with
Mark Hamilton: He doesn’t have Adams’ value, but could be a nice supplement in a deal
Mikel Clato: He throws hard. Can’t teach that. Also, he is only our 5th-6th best pitching prospect.
Joe Kelly: See Clato entry
I think we have the pieces. Will we make a deal? Maybe not. But this year it will have nothing to do with a lack of prospects.
sickels has this to say about rosenthal, continuing his sleepers list:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/20/2283391/2011-sleeper-alert-list-review-part-four#storyjump
i agree with all of the above, pretty much. i’m not sure that cox is off the table. i can’t see trading ryan jackson when he has no real replacement in the high minors. i could see us using a trade to clear roster space of some people the club has lost faith in or has no room for – steve hill, hamilton, anderson, greene, ottavino – as secondary parts to a larger trade. most of the other value is going to be in high-upside pitching in the low minors. i could see adams being an attractive piece to some teams who think he can replicate his success in the big leagues.
This.
As an aside, I might also add that I wish Mozeliak WAS willing to deal from off the current M.L. roster. I can think of some instant addition by subtraction in that regard.
There are several middle infielders from the parent club I’d sell REALLY damned cheap. (“Here, sir …. Would you like this little shortstop and converted second baseman as a convenient little lagniappe added to your shopping bag??? Our compliments…..Really. No, go ahead. Take them. Enjoy”)
In fact, I like these particular players a whole lot less than just about anybody in our system from this side of Batavia over, if you know what I mean.
Why would Cox be untouchable? He’s a high average, low power corner infielder with at best average defense. These sorts of players are nice to have but not irreplaceable. If I’m JMo, I listen to offers for Cox and am willing to include him in trade discussion for players I need.
I don’t think he’s untouchable, I just think that anyone trading for prospects won’t want his major league deal.
Cox looks to me like a very good player waiting to happen. I saw him in the AFL, when he was just cutting his professional teeth. In a year or two, I would think he would be a much better player (or trading chip) than he is now. I would wait to trade him.
Agree with your point about Cox’s MLB contract but I don’t think he can be described as “off limits” and placed in the same category as Shelby and Carlos. His trade value may be depressed by the contract but he’s a chip that may enter the discussion. It’s hard to value Cox because he has yet to demonstrate his full potential while, at the same time, he’s not a high ceiling prospect. Mike may be right that it is better to wait with him. Next year when Cox is in AAA, the 40 man roster thing is a lesser issue because he should be viewed as MLB ready (assuming he hits in AAA).
BA has a piece on Taveras, anyone care to summarize?
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2011/2612115.html
Very nice article by J.J. Cooper. He quotes QC manager Johnny Rodriguez saying that Taveras is “the best hitter I’ve seen below AA in a long time.”
He says OT doesn’t walk because he’s so skilled at recognizing pitches and getting the bat through the zone. He has the ability to foul off pitches he doesn’t like w. a 2-strike count and wait for the pitch he can drive. JR didn’t say this, but I get the impression he expects that OT will eventually learn to take more pitches and avoid those 2-strike counts so he doesn’t need to foul off so many. Right now, OT swings at so pitches because he knows he can make contact.
Also says that he won’t be a meteoric riser. Not like AP. He’s very raw defensively. Good arm, but not quick or accurate enough yet. Average speed but not yet a good baserunner.
Basically confirms that OT is a truly exciting corner outfield prospect, but one who needs lots of time on the field to refine his game.
I’d be least likely to trade Swagerty and Taveras in addition to the mentioned “untouchables”. If some team was overrating Cox with what they were offering I’d listen though. Carp seems like an obvious choice as he has some value and is redundant in our organization. A package of him, Kelly and a filler such as Hamilton might get us someone valuable and leave our system essentially intact. The wild card is Adams. I suspect that there are teams out there who would be very interested in him so the question is what the Card’s FO thinks about his future. If they see him as another Walrus type prospect who could get them an impact player in a package then I hope they’d do it. I have to admit though that I’d be sort of let down if they dealt him.
Finally I’d be reluctant to trade Jackson because he’s the only proven shortstop we have (that includes the big team) and could be a valuable player on a team that was otherwise offensively strong.
Ottavino would have gone in a minute if the Cards had not that he was not healthy even though they had taken him off the DL!
Agree. I think the Cards did a nice job of selling his injury when taking him off the 40 man.
I think in planning possible trades the Cardinals must make some basic assumptions. First, they should assume that Pujois will be playing elsewhere in 2012. Some team will offer Pujois 25 million plus. Unless the Cardinals are ready to match the offer, Pujois will be playing elsewhere.
The Cardinals also will not be prepared to offer a large contract to Carpenter. The Cardinals will
dump Theriot because of his obvious limitations in the field. So the team will need major replacements at first base, starting pitching, and shortstop. This means the Cardinals should avoid trading a possible replacement for Pujois, promising pitchers, and shortstops.
They also realistically should not expect to be able to prime contender. Perhaps they should place more emphasis on young players in 2011. No matter what they do now, beating the Phils in 2011 will be a long shot.
Paul, don’t you think you two assumption are contradictory? If Pujols is playing elsewhere in 2012 then the Cards will have the payroll room to pay Carp. The only problem comes in the timing. If the Cards decline Carp’s option, he may sign elsewhere before the Pujols free agent drama plays out. I expect a Holliday redux.
I don’t think my assumptions are contradictory. I believe with Carpenter’s arem history and
limited success in 2011, I don’t believe the Cardinals are prepared to offer a large contract–
especially with their history of success with other aging pitchers
I don’t think the Cards will be willing to pay Carp 15M for the performance he is giving at his age.
Nor will anyone else. He’ll sign somewhere for something like 2yr/20m, and I suspect St Louis would be his 1st choice.
Isn’t all of this discussion about which prospects they are willing to give up completely backwards? Don’t you have to know who they are going to get before you can say who you willing to discuss giving up? Who you might give up if you were making a run at Jose Reyes is alot different than what you have to give up to get Tim Byrdick from the Mets etc. Check out the secondary prospects given up by the Giants for Keppinger and the Tigers for Betemet. If that is what the Cards are trying to get that is the type of prospects they will have to give up. If they want Bell or Adams from the Padres it will be a much higher caliber prospect(s).
That is true, but with so few trades for relievers or starters this seasons for prospects, I didn’t have much to work with.
Looking at STL they have approx 25 – 30M in bad contracts on the payroll this year again. IMO here are the guys on the ML club that other team can have.
Westbrook 8M
Lohse 12M
Theriot 3.3M (Tyler Greene Better Fielder 400K)
Skippy 2.7M (could get same performance from Descalso for 400K)
Miller 2.0M
Franklin 3.3M (already gone)
On another note I am really impressed with Mr. Wong. He is definitely an excellent hitter.
No-one wants any of those players.
Agreed they all suck
I’ll say it again. This team, without Wainwright, has little chance to go beyond a division title. I would stand pat and, if I chose to deal, it would be over the winter AND from a position of strength. We are in contention with what we have now in a weak division. If we do win the division, we would still have to get past the Phils most likely in the first round. Anyone here think we can make enough trades to avoid a sweep in October? I can wait til next year.
Basic maxim: if you make the post season, anything is possible, because of small sample size. The trick is getting there.
This said, I am getting increasingly concerned as to the chances that the Cardinals WILL make it to the post season. This latest skid really worries me. I think it’s a real question at this point whether what could be gained by trading top-10-but-not-Shelby minor leaguers increases the big team’s chances by enough to justify the trade.
I’m in agreement Jim. It’s another year of too many holes. Losing Waino is part of it but also seeing our closer stack arms, our Loogies fall off a cliff and our SS cemented to the ground and using a catcher’s mitt, our centerfielder not breaking out…etc, I wouldn’t trade the farm unless we were acquiring young talent with some years of contract control.
My approach to trading prospects would only be to fill one position in a team otherwise set or trading prospects from our excess for prospects we covet. I know we could trade Rosenthal, for instance, because we have several pitchers ahead of him. But, I don’t want to unless we get a quality player with some cost control….no rentals. I don’t really want to trade Rosenthal at all. He reminds me of Oswalt and wouldn’t that be a disgusting thing to live with for the next ten years if all we got was a rental…and lost the division anyway.
I don’t think the FO is even willing to consider Matt Adams. I think they have a better appreciation than anybody what our likelihood of contracting Albert. If it’s as grim as I think it is, Adams will go nowhere.
I think our team gets younger over the next few years. That’s a team that probably doesn’t work for Tony to manage. I’ll be surprised if we’d be willing to part with our youngsters with a rebuild on the horizon.
Didn’t Cox sign at the aug. 15 deadline last year? If so, I believe they could not trade him until after that date this year.
Only makes sense to trade value players if/when you get value back for longer term. I would trade Rasmus right now if we could get Hellickson or some other young starter. I would trade Adams/Cox for long-term reliever that we would control for several years.
Nobody is going to want Lohse, Westbrook, Schumaker or Theriot at this point.
If we could get a bullpen or starter using secondary prospects, but they won’t be very good players.
I would trade anyone except Miller and Martinez at this point. Good young starters are hard to come by….
I dont like to trash other people’s prospect lists because i realize everyone has their own opinion and evaluation but this list by Rob Raines is ridiculous. anyone labeling Steve Ramos (walk rate of less than 1%) and Kieth Butler as untouchables shouldn’t be writing about prospects.
http://robrains.com/2011/07/my-advice-to-john-mozeliak-on-trading-prospects-%E2%80%9Cjust-say-no%E2%80%9D/
Seems to be a strange mix of stuff and results with this 10. That said speed kills and Ramos could be an interesting player. A burner who is actually succeeding unlike Virgil Hill and Michael Swinson.
Swinson tore up the Appy Lg at ayounger age. He is also showing signs of life again!
I’m a Swinson fan last year I saw probably his best series of the year and I was raving. I’m just mentioning that overall he doesn’t have the stats to match his considerable talent at this point.
I think it was good that he pointed out wright, butler, and Ramos for their intriguing seasons. The idea that they should be untouchable however is pretty silly.