With Joe Strauss giving public voice to rumors about a possible trade with the White Sox, it might be instructive to take a glance at the White Sox’s farm system. While the rumors seem to be centered around the major league components including Edwin Jackson (2011 salary: $8.35M) and/or Matt Thornton (2011-2013: $3M, $5.5M, $5.5M; 2014 club option: $6M w/ $1M buyout), the Cardinals would be unlikely to move Colby Rasmus with three cost controlled years remaining for a rental pitcher or a reliever. So the expectation should be that the Cardinals acquire at least one prospect as well.
It’s difficult to assess who exactly the Cardinals might target from the White Sox farm system but what follows is an outsider’s view of the top prospects.
The top prospect entering the season for the White Sox was Chris Sale who had pitched 23 innings in the majors in 2010 but hadn’t quite exhausted his rookie status. The lefty started the year in the majors and has maintained a high level of performance in his sophomore season including an impressive 9.35K/9IP. If Matt Thornton is part of the White Sox package, it seems unlikely that they would double dip into the bullpen. Sale has 4-5 more years of being a cost-controlled reliever so he’s just not a good candidate to expect to be in a trade package.
After Sale you’ll find a trio of position players that seem to be in the mix for any position from 2 through 8 on various top 10 lists. The first is Brent Morel, a third baseman, who ended 2010 after a cup of coffee in the majors and began 2011 as the White Sox primary third baseman. He’s been unequivocally terrible this year with a .242/.261/.291 slash line at the hot corner. Given the plethora of internal third base options the Cardinals have, there’s little reason to discuss Morel’s upside.
Eduardo Escobar is a slick fielding shortstop with a questionable bat. A nominal switch hitter, Escobar has been stronger from the right side of the plate. 2010 was a breakout year at the plate for Escobar where his offense reached average levels relative to his league. Scouts seem to project additional power and offensive potential for Escobar but it is difficult for me to see what would make him a more attractive prospect than say Ryan Jackson.
An impatient, powerful corner infielder, Dayan Viciedo is a Cuban import to the White Sox farm system that flashes impressive power at the plate. He’s better suited for first base but could stick as a below average defensive third baseman. Viciedo has spent the season in Charlotte, the White Sox’s AAA affiliate, questions about his defense, plate approach and physical regimen remind one of Matt Adams if Adams walked less, hit for less power and was 5 inches shorter. Again, Viciedo might be a decent prospect but not one that the Cardinals are likely to pursue.
The Sox farm system also includes a toolsy outfielder in Jared Mitchell who missed almost all of 2010 after injuring his ankle in spring training. Mitchell is a speedy player in High-A baseball who has the ability to stick in centerfield depending on his arm strength. He doesn’t project for more than gap power and his 2011 statistics have shown a dangerous propensity for the strikeout. While the Cardinals farm system doesn’t have a lot of high level centerfield prospects (Tommy Pham and Oscar Taveras notwithstanding), Mitchell is very much a long shot to develop into a major league player.
Shifting away from the position players, Jaocb Petricka is best described as a live arm with an uncertain future role. His fastball will sit mid-90s and he has a slider and changeup though neither would be described as plus given their inconsistency. He has the size (6′ 5″) and velocity of a starter, which he can hold onto late into a game, but the lack of command on his secondary pitches may eventually put him in the pen. Petricka is still in the low minors but could move quickly if the right hander was dedicated to the bullpen.
Featuring superb command and a fastball that will touch mid-nineties, Addison Reed has progressed quickly though the White Sox farm system moving from low-A to AA in 2011. His statistics far outstrip his stuff where Reed has used a mix of his fastball, slider and changeup to utterly dominate hitters striking out 83 and walking just 11 in 57 IP. Of the relievers on this list, reports on Reed make him out to be someone who could be a decent starter in my mind. I say that as someone who has not seen him pitch and admittedly he has started just a handful of times in his pro and college career.
The last arm of interest is Gregori Infante, a Venezuelan product. Infante has reached the highest level of competition among Reed and Petricka pitching most of the 2011 season in AAA. Infante has a violent delivery and one that he struggles to execute consistently leading to control problems. With plus velocity on his fastball, Infante is another live arm that has the potential to be a late inning reliever but whose command will ultimately determine his upside.
Summary: First of all, it’s important to be clear that the White Sox’s farm system is downright terrible. Chris Sale would have been the only player with a chance to crack the Cardinals top 5 and I think only Morel, Viciedo and, perhaps, Reed would have cracked the top 10. The key to the system is how highly you rate relief prospects with good velocity. While the Cardinals have shown that can be a boon in recent years with the additions of Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez to the big league pen, few of those players were highly sought after assets prior to their arrival in the majors with Sanchez being the exception.
If the Cardinals are looking to move Colby Rasmus for some combination of Edwin Jackson, Matt Thornton and/or prospects, they may need to get a third team involved to sweeten the deal for the Cardinals. Otherwise, I’d hope the Cardinals focus on the relief arms like Petricka and Reed. The prospects of moving the Cardinals former three-time number 1 prospect for a rental pitcher or a collection of relievers is a bit nauseating to contemplate and unlikely to be a good return on a once and still high upside position prospect. Parse the prospects as you please but I don’t see a good deal for the Cardinals among these names.
Additional information on the White Sox prospects:
Baseball Prospectus Top 11
Baseball America Top 10
John Sickels Top 20
Keith Law Top 10
FutureSox
South Side Sox
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We had a chance to draft Addison Reed I believe and we passed. The only way a deal with the White Sox is worth it is if Sale is included.
Nice post, I agree with your summary. I’m fearful that were going to sell too low on Colby right now because he isn’t currently producing well. Mo worries me..
I agree I think the best move is to stand pat or maybe trade Craig or Jay. Wasn’t some of the rational last year to trading Ludwick is that it would give Rasmus confidence that he was THE guy in CF now rather than looking over his shoulder to Jay. Trading Jay accomplishes that also. We are linked to Jeremy Gutherie I believe and he would probably only cost a mid range prospect. I would get him, move McClellan to the bullpen and see where the chips fall. TLR may be gone next year if Pujols walks which would then allow Rasmus to be the everyday CF.
Put me down as a “no” on Guthrie. He’s been a deeply mediocre pitcher generally and is probably only our 5th best starter (although you could argue he’s in the Lohse/Westbrook class, probably). He might be a little over-rated as well, based on being the O’s opening day starter for a couple of years and having a slightly lucky ERA (he’s been in the mid-3′s three times in the last five years, despite a career FIP of 4.67). If we trade for a starter, I’d rather it was one who was a definite number 3 in our rotation, someone like Edwin Jackson, in fact.
All that said, I definitely agree that trading Jay is a better move right now than trying to move Rasmus at his lowest value, and I agree that there’s definite value to moving KMac back into the pen.
I wonder if a package of Jay + mid-level prospect + throw-in couldn’t bring back Jackson and Thornton anyway.
Funny, I actually think Guthrie is a little underrated.
Not a star, but a switch from the AL east to the NL Central probably makes him look like a solid, innings eating type righty who will provide above league average production. It also allows us to put McClellan back in the bullpen, where he belongs.
That move has value, but I’m not sure if it has enough value to trade Rosenthal. Probably does, but it’s something to think about, and call around for all your options.
It/he does have value, yes, but I just think 8 or 9 starts of a guy who might be league average or a tick above (with a prevailing wind) probably doesn’t add more than a win to our record, at most (you could actually argue he’s no real improvement over Westbrook/KMac – Guthrie has a 4.36 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and is projected to be around that mark, perhaps a little worse, going forward. KMac has a 4.17 xFIP, Westbrook was around 4.10 last time I checked, so assuming a little boost from moving from the ALE, you’d say Guthrie is a similar sort of pitcher to those two. There is, of course, some limited value with moving KMac back into the pen, although that could be mitigated somewhat if it moves Boggs and/or Lynn, who are both probably better pitchers, into lower-leverage roles). Guthrie’s a flyball pitcher who strikes out about one batter more per 9IP than McClellan and walks about the same number. As you said, he’ll get a boost by changing leagues, but not to the point where he’s a big improvement, and in 8 or 9 starts that’s probably a 0.5-1WAR upgrade.
All in all, I think it’s such a small gain that it’s not really worth giving up anything of value for. If we’re prepared to eat a little salary we can probably pick up a Guthrie-level pitcher for a throw-in, so I really wouldn’t want to trade a Rosenthal-type for him. As I said before, it’s also worth noting that he doesn’t really improve our playoff rotation (he’s not better than Lohse and is similar to Westbrook) and he’s not a particularly valuable guy next year, in fact you could argue he represents an opportunity cost if we tender him a contract.
IF, and I mean if, Viciedo could somehow stick in right field (which I believe he has played some this year) then he might be worth a look as our right fielder of the future, and in turn be part of a package with Jackson & Thornton. I’m not thrilled about Jackson compatibility-wise w/ Duncan, but if he keeps doing what he does, he would be an improvement to our rotation. Also, not terribly thrilled about a reliever making that much money who seems to have completely melted down when closing.
I would prefer a package from the White Sox to include either Sale OR Gordan Beckham (No way we get both). I think Beckham would be ideal, as he seems to be in the same boat as Rasmus as an underperforming former elite prospect. I would like it even more if Beckham has the ability to slide back over to SS, which I believe is what he was drafted as, and read somewhere that he is a lot more comfortable there. Problem with trading for Beckham is that it addresses none of our more pressing pitching needs.
A deal built around Sale would depend a lot on whether we see him as a starter or reliever. Obviously, if we got him he would be a reliever for the remainder of the year, but if we think he could start, I could see us putting him back down in the minors for a year to see what he can do.
I don’t think the sox will part with either Beckham or Sale, so I don’t see a great fit unless a 3rd team is involved, and unless we get paid overvalue for Rasmus, I would hope we hold onto him until next year when hopefully TLR is gone and he can regain some value/develop in a less oppressive environment
You nailed it with Beckham. If (and I still don’t believe we would) deal Rasmus to the ChiSox then Beckham is the guy I want more than anyone else in the discussion. Reed is the only prospect that gets me remotely excited (I am not a Sale fan and never was). Jackson and Thornton would be additional pieces in the deal. But the upside and cost controlled aspect of Beckham at a premium position (SS) is much more valuable than anyone else that is being discussed with the ChiSox
Beckham may not be able to stick at SS and a former top guy who isn’t performing be more valuable that Sale who could be Johny Venters like or moved to AAA next year and come back as a good starting LHP.
What I really think MO should do is just put out unreasonable trade demands and see if anyone bites and if not he can go back to Dewitt and TLR and say I tried but no one would do it.
I have read that the only reason Beckham is not at SS is that Alexei Ramirez has it occupied (and he is one of the better defensive SS’s in the league). And, with the Cardinals current situation, I would say it is very “sticky”, and Beckham would adhere just fine.
I agree, though. Overpay for Rasmus or nothing
Everything that I know agrees that Beckham iis not playing SS for the reason you stated. He could be a solid (not spectacular) SS and his offensive potential is significant
Not impressed with Mr. Beckham at all. If there were a deal made I would demand Sale & Thornton be involved. If the WSox are unwilling to involve them then no deal.
I would also ask for Reed as well. Even if it meant throwing in one of the following Matt Carpenter, Tyler Greene, Mark Hamilton, Allen Craig, or Ottavino.
The trade would be the following:
STL:
Rasmus
Greene
Hamilton
FOR:
Sale
Reed
Thornton
In theory I like this but it doesn’t really help us this year. We wouldn’t get a starter out of it. Sale and Thorton would replace Miller and Valdes. But we still have McClellan in the rotation. I think eventually Lynn will ahve to replace him in the rotation. Can’t double a guys highest innings per year and expect him to be worth anything in a pennant race.
It would give us 2 BP lefties immediately and allow us to swap Lynn to the starting rotation and McClellan to the BP. Valdes & possibly Miller could be released as well.
I understand that part of it but is that deal really worth losing Rasmus for? I’m still of the belief that Jay could collapse like he did with regular playing time last year when he made Ryan Ludwick expendable.
Not sure if it is. I would possible pull Greene out of the deal.
Lynn couldn’t possibly be any worse than what we have got out of Westbrook & Lohse.
??????
Lohse has put up 132 innings of 3.46 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 4.00 xFIP pitching so far, and is on course to be well above average by all those measures this year. He’s had a few poor starts in the last couple of months but he’s been far better than I think just about anyone expected this year. I would be pretty amazed if Lynn could put up comparable numbers as a major league starter, considering he’s been worse than this in AAA.
Sale Scouting report….
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05/27/chris-sale-scouting-report
Nauseating is the right word to describe my reaction to any of these possibilities. The White Sox seem like the wrong team to be talking to about our highest upside young player. I think the FO should remember that Rasmus has been a streak hitter going back to his minor league days. This down streak is longer than others but yesterday’s game may indicate a turning point.
The kind of players, both current Sox and prospects, just don’t approach what I think of as Colby’s value. As much as we need pitching help we’d be crazy to let him go so cheaply.
Possible this could be a trial balloon to get someone else bidding? I am underwhelmed with the choices, but Sales maybe could be a good piece. He’d at least be the lefty we are looking for.
Interesting speculation. There is another team in the AL Central race that also has a relative weakness in center that Raz might remedy: Detroit. Problem is, their farm system is even weaker than the White Sox. Getting them bidding against each other for a Raz acquisition does not necessarily help the Cardinals unless a significant major-league piece is included.
I’d still rather see us keep the kid. Losing him would not be the apocalypse that some fear, IMO (I’m not sure he’ll ever reach his full potential while TLR is managing), but it should still only happen if there is a compelling reason, and TLR isn’t going to be around forever.
Lets say this true. How much does is say about the make up of rasmus if he can’t reach his potential because he pouts about his manager? Seriously, how is LaRussa stopping his potential?
It’s not that it’s that Rasmus is still only 24 in his second full year and is struggling. Not saying he will never succeed under TLR but at this point TLR has decided that Jay is his starting CF. Rasmus is by defination streaky and and just needs to figure things out and not be torn between being a power hitter and a spray htter.
Rasmus will always be a streaky hitter.
I think Lynn to the rotation, McClellan to the BP and call up Ottavino to the BP helps us just as much as most trades.
I would have to agree. But what was up with Ottavino yesterday. Were you able to watch the game on MILBTV?
Who do you discard to call up Ottavino? Valdes or Miller? FWIW I agree that Ottavino’s future is in the bullpen, but I’d prefer it if they moved him there in Memphis this year and gave him some time to adapt. He has a chance as a Russ Springer-like ROOGY I think, he just struggled with his control vs LHB. Memphis are more or less out of the playoff picture so I don’t see why they can’t just give his rotation spot to an organisational depth guy like Blaine Boyer, or something.
You get send down Walters…
I watched Batavia, so no. Not sure about Ottavino haven’t payed attention to Memphis much this year. Still him in a Lance Lynn type situation I think would be good. Crank it up for 2 innings or so if needed.
I have MILBTV but my internet service is too slow for streaming the game.
Ottavino’s outing yesterday was horrible. He pitched to 6 batters in the 3rd inning and didn’t even retire one and was pulled. I know it was 105 degrees at the game which might have caused a problem for him as well.
i suspect it is time to put ottavino in the bullpen. the crush of would-be starters is only a few steps behind. with wainwright returning and miller looking like rotation material mid-2012, we need the bullpen depth.
kyle mcclellan and lance lynn will fight each other in spring training for space in the rotation. unless there are further injuries or wainwright fails to return by spring training (or somehow ends up on another team).
ottavino does not seem to be ready to start, and does not seem high on the list of options if we did need a starter. after 5 years, we need plan B.
Maybe the talks with the White Sox are a way of leveraging more out of the Nationals or Rays. Agree that White Sox organization is a poor fit for what we’re looking for. If Beckham and/or Sale isn’t included, no thank you.
I may get stoned outside the city gates for this, but I don’t think 2011 is the year for the Cardinals to be trying to make a big splash at the deadline.
I think I’d take my chances with a little less swashbuckling move and trade some B type prospects for a marginal upgrade at a starting pitcher, move KMac back to relief, and go on and compete with that. I just don’t have a good feeling about jettisoning Rasmus right now, to see him develop and thrive as a cost controlled center fielder for another team.
A trade of Rasmus, could help the team, no doubt. But this team doesn’t field all that well; doesn’t have much speed (a more minor point, granted); has LOOGY issues; a chronic (many seasons long, now) performance/personnel issue in the middle infield; and has been dealing with Wainwright’s absence and along list of other DL injuries admirably, but with, of course, some predictable and expected difficulty. How many of these issues can be addressed in one mid-season trading period??
I think I’d take my chances with a lesser move or two, let players begin to heal and get back from the DL (esp. Craig) and play on. Trading Rasmus seems to me to be tinkering with potential foundation pieces, and I wonder about the necessity of that.
Getting Sales & Reed provides you two young pitchers with Sales being very capable of moving into the Starting rotation as early as next year.
Sales hasn’t pitched much in the rotation at all in his career. I think to say he’s “very capable” of doing so next year is somewhat ambitious. We don’t even know if he can handle the workload, let alone whether his stuff will play as a starter. Also, if he’s no better than Lynn he’s a sideways move in the rotation. I just think this is a big leap of logic. The most likely scenario with Reed & Sales is you end up with two decent 8th inning guys. Pretty decent haul but not something you trade a young CF coming into his prime for.
Reed doesn’t excite me much we had a chance to draft him last year but we passed. He was drafted after Seth Blair and Tyrell Jenkins in 2010.
I would think that most of us thought that as soon as Waino went down that 2011 was not the year. So I would also hope that the Cardinals are very careful with any move they make.
Of course living in the Chicago area I have heard White Sox fans do nothing but trash the idea of even trading Jackson and thornton for Rasmus.
I think getting Beckham would be an interesting idea if he can actually play short, but again the White Sox have been very disappointed in his bat up to this point.
Still think TB is our best trading partner since their system is full of top of the line pitching prospects.
I am of the opinion none of these guys would fit into our top 10. Granted I know much more about our system than theirs, and i am probably a bit biased. Still, there does not seem to be much there.
We aren’t really looking for starting prospects but established starters now. Sale would for sure be in the top 10.
I was assuming Sale would lose his prospect status this year.
Other than Sale, pass. Beckham’s wOBA+s for Chicago in 2010 and 2011 are not any better than Tyler Greene’s.
You can’t discuss white sox-cards trade rumors without mentioning Buhrle. Its actually a law I think.
I heard that thats the one person who won’t be a Cardinal at least not yet. Something about its in his contract that if he becomes a Cardinal and automatic 15 million dollar option will vest in his contract.
I think he mentioned he would wave/restructure in the past.
He’s also sai dthat he wants to pitch at least 1 game at Busch in his career and at the end of career he would even be willing to play with the Cardinals for 1 dollar.
If Carpenter won’t take a significant pay-cut next year, I really hope we sign Buehrle on a hometown discount 1yr deal. He’s a bit overpaid as it is at $15m, but if he’d sign for south of (say) $8m, and everything he’s said suggests to me he probably would, he’d be a great 3rd starter behind Waino and Garcia, and he gives us that insurance policy we simply don’t have with a Wainwright, Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook, Lynn rotation (i.e. Lynn can stay in the pen and potentially fill in if anyone gets injured. After this year, I don’t want to see McClellan starting again for the Cardinals).
Perhaps I should have said young pitchers when referring to TB rather than pitching prospects. I realize we are looking for a starter now, but if we were going to trade Rasmus I would want to get a young starter with some upside rather than a couple of month rental like Jackson.
I agree I’d like Hellickson if we are trading Rasmus
I’m not sure I necessarily agree that the WhiteSox haven’t got players of interest – to me, Jackson and Thornton are about as good a match as any two major league players for the Cardinals, in that we need a 3rd starter (Jackson has pitched really well this year, and I’d even be open to an extension given he’s been pretty durable and is in his prime) and a shutdown lefty (although Thornton’s contract is a bit ugly for a non-closer). Sale would also be of interest as a cost-controlled arm who could fill the LOOGY/8th inning role this year and potentially consider looking at him as a SP in future.
However, there are two problems here – firstly, the Whitesox are currently in a pennant race in a crappy division, so will want players who can help now. Secondly, no way I want to deal Rasmus for rentals. If there’d be any way of getting Jackson and Thornton for (say) Jon Jay plus mid-level prospects I’d do it, but I don’t think the whitesox will. You could go with a deal that brings in a short-term upgrade plus some long-term upside, like Jackson + Sale + Reed for Rasmus, but again I don’t think they’d go for that, and trading Colby for JUST Sale (after this year) seems a pretty mediocre haul. I think we should keep Rasmus, be open to trading any other prospects outside of Martinez and Miller, be open to adding a bit of salary, and try to add a decent #3 starter and a LOOGY as rentals (someone at VEB mentioned Vazquez and Choate from Florida, which works for me). I’d love to add someone, ANYONE to rid us of Ryan Theriot as well, but literally the only two guys who make sense to us and the trading team are Clint Barmes (Hou) and Jamey Carroll (LAD).
I think Jackson would be purely a rental. I really think the organization wants to restructure with Carp and allow him to mentor Shelby Miller. Jackson having his first shot at FA is going to want top dollar and the Cardinals won’t be willing to be the highest bidder with the Pujols contract in limbo. I think the Cardinal rotation next year is alraedy set. Waino, Garcia, Carp, Westbrook, Lohse/Lynn. Adding a pitcher this year with more than a 1 year contract doesn’t work for next as there will be no where for that pitcher t p itch.
“Adding a pitcher this year with more than a 1 year contract doesn’t work for next as there will be no where for that pitcher t p itch.”
Not sure I agree. In 2013, at present, we have a likely rotation of Wainwright (in his final year), Garcia, Shelby, ????? (maybe Lynn, if he works out, maybe someone like Swagerty. It’s too early for Martinez). So there’s plenty of room for multi-year deals given that Lohse and Westbrook are off the books after 2012.
As for next year, I agree that having Carp back on a restructured deal would be good, but I kinda don’t see how that’s going to be cheaper than $14m or so on a 1-year, and if we want him cheaper we probably have to sign a 38-year-old guy to a 2 year contract (maybe he accepts 2yr/$20m). Carp is one of my all-time favourites and I’d love to have him back for one more go around, but if he wants a fair contract there are alternatives – Buehrle might play for below market value on a 1yr deal as he’s a huge Cards fan and has said he wants to retire as a Cardinal. And I think Jackson works too. Hard to know what he’ll want as a FA but he’s a legitimately good pitcher now and I’d give him a Lohse-type deal as soon as I’d give Carp a 2yr/$20m one. Jackson will be 28 at the start of next season and something like 4yr/$45m would be a good deal, I think.
Like I say – plenty of ways to skin a cat and it’ll be interesting to see what Mo does. I’d just like us to have a definite #3 pitcher next year (not sure Miller is 100% ready for the majors, and I want Lohse and Westbrook to be the definite bottom-of-the-rotation guys), and I’d be happy to take on another long-ish term contract once the 3 we currently have (Carp, Lohse, Westy) are off the books, even with the Pujols contract looming.
You would have to think that there is a reason that Jackson has been on 5 times in 6 years. The teams that get him don’t like him or theres a personality issue. I think Carp would take 2 years, 20 mil to stay. Top 3 guys next year are Waino, Garcia and Carp in my mind.
Some guys just get traded a lot. The main reason the Dodgers and Rays traded him is that he wasn’t very good, and they had a lot of young pitching (esp. the Rays). He improved in Arizona, and they then traded him because they weren’t in any shape to contend and were hoping to get back a haul of more long-term guys. I’ve never heard any particular stories about bad attitude or anything like that, and the fact he’s genuinely gone from a below-average pitcher to a very good one suggests to me he’s open to coaching and bettering himself.
Not really sure I’m keen on the idea of making significant personnel decisions based on nebulous ideas of who’s a good “team guy” and who isn’t, in any case. I think it has value up to a point, but we traded away our best defensive player (Ryan) for this reason and ended up paying more to field the worst shortstop in all of baseball. All things being more or less equal, give me the best player every time.
Sale and Beckham for Colby….get it done
Ottavino suffered from heat exhaustion pitching in 105 degree weather. He was dizzy on the mound which is why he had so many walks! Needed medical attention when they took him out.
I am so glad to hear he is ok, I hear it’s getting to lots of them.