I don’t really have words for this right now. Needless to say, the first instinct is that this is a very bad trade driven by the manager’s and player’s personalities. In much the same way that the Brendan Ryan trade was ill-advised, this one seems so as well. The package that the Cardinals got back will hinge on Marc Rzepczynski and whether he can be a starter long term.
Cardinals trade:
Colby Rasmus, P.J. Walters, Brian Tallet, Trevor Miller
Cardinals receive:
Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson
Please watch your language in the comments and avoid personal attacks. I don’t want to have to play the heavy right now.
Entries (RSS)
Well i do not like this deal at all, unless rzepcynski has the potential to be a 2 or 3 starter, which is doubtful. Seems like a force trade for me. Especially when it seemed like rasmus was heating up. We could have gotten alot more in the off-season.
+ infinity
I agree on the offseason.
I like the trade. Way I feel if Rasmus didn’t want to play for St. Louis, he can go play in the American league like Drew ended up doing. About the same caliber of player.
Drew netted Adam Wainwright plus a middle of the rotation starter and a reliever. There’s no waino in this trade. Impatience leads to mistakes.
Drew had a 1.000 ops season
Drew hit .289 with an .886 ops
Drew wsa a good outfielder
Rasmus was not worth as much as drew.
you do realize JD drew went on to hit .305/.436/.569 the year after he was traded? and then went on to be between average and near all-star caliber for the next 6 seasons? if you truly believe that rasmus was a jd drew type player, you ought to be furious.
Not if Rasmus continued to play like he did for almost half a season. You are assuming he would heat up. I contend that not only the Cardinals, but other organizations, felt that Rasmus is not the player everyone once thought he would be. He lost his starting job to a 4th OF. And don’t blame TLR. I never once saw Tony out there playing for him. Rasmus is a grown man and his failures belong to him and him only. Period.
I thought Rasmus straight up for Jackson, Rzepczynski and Dotel was an okay trade given the atmosphere between Rasmus and TLR. But to add in Walters, Tallet and Miller for Patterson? Ok, it clears the 40 man of blah players but it just doesn’t make sense.
Ever heard of addition by subtraction? I can almost hear Mo demanding that Toronto take those three as part of the “package received” for Raz — and furthermore, I can almost hear Toronto almost pulling away from the deal because they had to take them.
That was my thought too. Its pretty clear that Mo forced the Jays to take Tallett and Miller back in order to save the $$ they were owed. Walters was worth a little bit- probably about as much as Patterson. The way I see it Patterson was in the deal only because the Cards were going to need another center fielder.
For those who are complaining about the deal, you need only look at the early years of both Patterson and Jackson. Both were even more highly rated than Rasmus and both got traded for pennies because their original teams waited too long to trade them after they started to fail. If we had kept Rasmus any longer while he continued to struggle, you were probably looking at another Anthony Reyes/ Bryan Anderson situation where a former hot prospect wasn’t worth anything anymore. I think people are severely undervaluing Rzepczynski in this deal as well. Whether he ever turns into a starter or not, he’s one of the best relievers in baseball as we speak and that doesn’t come cheaply at the trade deadline. For those of you clamoring for Heath Bell- Rzepczynski is worth more than Bell right now not only because he better after you consider park effects, he’s also cost controlled.
Aren’t there 3 ptbnl’s? Any word on whether they will be interesting or not?
All you hear is trade Colby, trade Colby!!! Then he is traded and all you hear “IS that all we got for him”!! Granted I am not a fan of the trade, besides the perfect game I have never been a fan of Jackson. Never heard of Rqepcznski…. and please don’t get started on Patterson.. He may have had one or two good years with the Cubs, not very much after that. I used to like Dotel, but have not heard much of him lately. As for the rest of our guys leaving from the cards I do not think they will hurt us to much leaving in the trade. All that being said I am hoping for the best…..GO CARDS
“Granted I am not a fan of the trade”
“Never heard of Rqepcznski…”
“I used to like Dotel, but have not heard much of him lately”
It sounds like you’re not really in any sort of position to have an opinion on the trade, frankly.
I agree. It seems like we sold extremely low on Rasmus. I didn’t even know Dotel was still playing baseball. Looking at it from a Future Redbirds standpoint, will Jackson likely be an A or B FA next year?
Dotel and Jackson are both comp B
Meaning you expect them to blow up?
?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comp_B
A little attempt at levity in a thread that has altogether too much doom and gloom in it for my tastes.
I simply don’t understand why Mo did not demand one or two solid prospects – this is a panic move and one that hurts the organization long term
That doesn’t make sence.
Demand top prospects, then turn around and trade top prospects to improve the team?
Think of this trade as eliminating the middle man. So instead, we jet to keep jenkins, Adams and Cox.
What do Jenkins, Adams and Cox have to do with this trade? We traded Rasmus – I’m saying we needed young talent for him, given his ceiling and cost controlled years.
Because the cards needed to improve the team. What was the point in getting 3 decent prospects if they would have to turn around and trade them for similar to what they got?
So they opted to trade rasmus to improve the team and keep the prospects (i hope).
What Zach is saying is that because Rasmus is a promising young talent who is cost-controlled and above-average right now, a promising young talent should have come back rather than a middling rental that helps this year only. As Bernie posted on his Twitter: “Short-term gain, long-term mistake.”
Basically, the Tampa Bay offer was probably better in that view, given that they offered a similar pitcher to Jackson who is cost-controlled, a LOOGY, and a prospect. Granted, they got more pieces in the Toronto/Chicago trade, but quantity doesn’t always mean quality.
Also, trading for prospects doesn’t automatically mean they would be shipping others out. Every team wants a farm system top-heavy in talent, and the improved Cardinals system still has some holes.
From where I stand, the success of this trade would depend on how good of a starter Rzepczynski becomes (since it seems that the Cardinals feel that he is that) and whether some decent prospects come back in the PLTBL, coupled with Jackson’s success this season. Otherwise, this is potentially the Chris Perez trade again, and Rasmus is a far more valuable player than Perez was.
Why do you say the the Cardinals feel that Rzepczynski will be a starter next year?
Because nearly every news story is saying that the Cardinals see him as a starter, and that is his possible long-term value. In order for this trade to be successful in my eyes, that’s going to have to happen, because a relief pitcher as the only futures aspect of this trade would be pretty weak given even Rasmus’ current production.
Rzepczynski won’t be a starter next year. Cards are full on the rotation next year.
Waino, Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook are locks as they are each under contract. Carp will be back next year too, no doubt.
So Rzepczynski doesn’t fit into the rotation. I think that’s definitely why the Cards traded for Jackson because they see Jackson as an upgrade over K-Mac (debatable) and that there is only this open rotation spot for this year with Waino coming back next year.
Although I didn’t say that Rzepczynski (I said his long-term value is as a starter) would be a starter next year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stretched out at spring training to audition. Wainwright most likely will not be ready until mid-season, Jackson will be gone (Mo is already talking about the draft picks the Cardinals will get back for him), we don’t know what’s going to happen with Carpenter yet, and I’m not sure about McClellan as a starter long-term. That leaves Garcia, Lohse, and Westbrook as the real locks next season. The space will be there for Rzepczynski to audition for a starting role, along with Lance Lynn.
However, my original point is that the Cardinals believe that Rzepczynski can *become* a starter and that he is his long-term value, not that he’s going to be used as a starter this year. That’s what Jackson’s for.
As far as press reports:
From Strauss’s story: “Rzepcynski, 25, may become the lone lefthanded reliever for now but is projected by some within the organization as a future starting pitcher.”
From Leach’s MLB Cardinals story: “The club also sees Rzepczynski as potentially more than a reliever. He pitched reasonably effectively for the Blue Jays as a starter in ’09 and ’10.”
From Rosenthal’s Fox News piece: “The Cardinals, like the Blue Jays, believe Rzepczynski eventually could develop into a starter or high-end reliever.”
How will Carp be back, “no doubt”? ~$30m for Albert, they probably need to add someone to play some RF and/or CF in free agency now (I can’t see Craig as an everyday RF or Chambers as full-time 4th OF), and likely someone to play shortstop as well. Especially if there’s any ideas about retaining Berkman, I can’t see how we can afford Carp, and it looks to me like the direction they’re going in is having Rzepcinski start, K-Mac in the pen, and eventually perhaps graduate Miller.
You guys don’t get it.
Here is my point. This was a trade for the short gain. Yes. And trading jenkins and cox would have also been for the the short gain. So instead of shipping out our own talent for the short term and trading Rasmus for the future, it was condenced into one deal.
I do think he was worth a decent pitching prospect though, a higher level, lower upside Jenkins. But given the bonus they paid, its better to keep him.
And I would say the guys they got are pretty good quality. Younger does not always mean better.
Its potentially Chris perez. Not trading him is ptoentially Anthony Reyes. There are risks eatehr way.
>>>”You guys don’t get it.”
Easy there. The problem people have with the trade is that it was the wrong trade asset for the short term. Bernie’s quote said as much, and the critical unnamed baseball executives in Rosenthal’s article say the same thing.
“Potentially Chris Perez” is not something people round here really want, at all.
oops. didn’t mean it like that. Meant that you don’t get “my point” not “you don’t get it”
Potentially Chris Perez…Another trade we don’t know how well it works out until the book is done on seth blair.
If you go back and look at the reaction here and at Viva El Birdos, the consensus at that time of the trade was that it was a huge overpayment for a declining veteran rental. When you trade a young talent (Perez–projected future closer; Rasmus–bluechip centerfielder) for underwhelming rentals no matter needed at the time, it’s generally regarded as ill-advised. The more talented the young player, the risker the trade becomes.
This trade has a huge amount of risk for the Cardinals given Rasmus’ talent. For a rental that may or may not help the team to the playoffs (and if they don’t do well, then this trade is an absolute failure, no matter what Rasmus does), sending out a young asset the caliber of Rasmus is generally regarded as amateur hour.
I don’t understand this “cost-controlled” argument because the “cost-controlled” years are over. He’s still under team control for two more years but this year he hits arbitration and was likely to cost more than he’s been worth so far in 2011. If he reverts to 2010 form then he’ll be a savings in 2012 and be paid what he’s worth in 2013 but even that’s a big IF.
It’s still cost-controlled because the player will not be able to play offers from others teams against his home team’s to drive up his price. While his price tag goes up, arbitration awards are based solely on current production, which, given Rasmus’ struggles, would hold those awards down. The Cardinals could also use their leverage to buy his arbitration years for a value deal betting on his future production, which is what happened with Pujols I believed.
I think we are do 3 more prospects or cash at a later date!!
I’ve heard that Jackson will be a Type B FA (and he’s a Boras client, so he’s sure to hit the open market).
I had resigned myself to Rasmus being traded (although it saddened me to feel that way), but I was hopeful in recent days because we were hearing that the Cardinals were asking for “a ton.” I don’t feel like we got a ton, though. Jackson and Rzep will help this year and hopefully Rzep will be good in the future, but I feel cheated. I will miss having a guy with the ceiling of Rasmus on the team.
i’ll be honest, i’m pretty upset about the trade..edwin jackson just seems to be me to be too mediocre of a pitcher to be a centerpiece of a deal for colby….this is 2 winning players now gone in 2 years because of tony basically not getting along with them..who all works and gets along with everyone they work with? disagreements happen but that doesn’t mean you should be fired traded for it..tony is wearing thin on me but at least we got corey patterson now!!
players who are hitting und .250 with not very good defence do not command large center pieces.
Brendan Ryan is a winning player?
Should have held onto him, hoped that he stayed hot the last 50 games or so, and flipped him for a better package. Just saying.
How did that work out with Reyes?
What if the final 50 games he tanks it like the past few months? Then you say “We should have traded him in July”. We just don’t know.
No then maybe he gets the point he has to work hard to win his spot back next year. His last 3 games he hit the ball very hard and played well. He seemed to be coming out of his slump and showing life again. I think there was very little chance he slumped the rest of the year unless he only got 1 start every 10 games.
24 year old Rasmus for this garbage is completely crazy. Looking at all the trades MO has made… he is an idiot. I was hoping we could get Sale & Reed & Thornton. But this is just stupid.
An idiot?
I mean if you are going to call people names, you should realize that sub .250 hitters don’t carry much power.
I prefer incompetence
Just like he his incompetence in signing Berkman.
or would you prefer the Lohse contract since you have know switched to free-agent signings?
So, injuries = bad deals. guess Mo should never sign a pitching contract then. guess the Wainright deal was terrible as well.
So your right. Mo is incometant.
He signed an MVP candidate
He signed a Cy Yound Candidate
And his mistake is a fuyy who is giving a sub 3.50 ERA and 200 innings is a terrible signing.
or the Westbrook contract, Franklin Contract, Skippy contract (you do realize that Descalso is as good as Skippy an for 400K), or the Theriot contract (trade of Blake Hawksworth who we desperately could have used this season), or the Perez trade for garbage, or the K Greene trade.
How many bad moves does the guy have to make before you realize that MO is an idiot and a total screw up as a GM.
Westbrooke is giving us 200 innings this year. His ERA is up, but still has good value and its only a 2 year deal. Not terrible, not great. Hardly an example of “incompatant”
Franklin contract: What was bad about that? Picking up the option?
Blake probably would not have made the opening day roster. Better to get something out of him then loose him for nothing.
Perez trade for garbage: I would not call seth Blair Garbage.
How many moves do I need? Obviously more than you.
Seriously, you just said Descalso is as good. Well, I guess none if I was a tough a critic as you. If you see failure in getting 200 innings, Failure in a guy hitting .280, ignore the potential of prospects, and thinks that trading guys out of options overshadows signing MVP candiates.
Luckily, I am a bit more realistic.
but Sale and Thornton and Reed provide only a minor upgrade for this year. Everyone here is asking for prospects, but prospects don’t help this team. It became clear we were not willing to part with our prospects of value and couldn’t swing a deal that would net us an improvement now. Trading Rasmus allowed us to upgrade at SP, plus upgrading in three places in the bullpen. And while Rasmus has potential and 3 “cost controlled years”(the 3 highest), he was one of the few pieces that we could move and net some help for the big league club.
Now if you want to debate whether it is worth it to try and make a run this year, when Philly, SF, and Atlanta all look better than us right now and with no Waino for the playoffs, then I might not argue with you. To me, it was better to wait until the offseason to try and deal him, but there is risk in that as well.
Travis,
What I was looking at with the Sale, Reed, Thornton deal is that we had all the Right handed pitching side of the pen covered. Sale & Thornton cover the left side of the pen for us.
Also,
We would have Sale & Reed for years to come and they have great upside. Thornton provides a solid hard throwing lefty for the next 2 seasons after this one. Thornton was an all-star last year.
This package is probably better than Sale, Reed & Thornton.
Reed is a middling-to-decent prospect of the sort we can probably get 75% of the time with a type B comp pick. Dotel provides a type B comp pick, and gives us a very small pen upgrade. So let’s call that a wash.
Rzepczynski, for my money, is as good as Sale if not better. Sale is a reliever and we don’t know if he can handle starting. He’s probably a better reliever than Rzepczynski but Rzep has started 20-odd games in the big leagues with a 3.94xFIP and has a good K rate and good GB rate in that time. If they both stay as relievers Sale’s probably better, marginally, but I think Rzep has more of a chance of sticking around as a quality starter. I think they’ve both got similar major league service time (although actually Sale might have a year on Rzep). You could argue otherwise, but I say that’s about a wash.
Jackson is a much bigger upgrade for us this year than Thornton, and in future he yields a type-B comp pick. Thornton is a decent reliever but showing some signs of ageing and he’s signed for 3 years to an OK-but-slightly-costly deal, which makes him of limited value IMO. I say this is a win for Jackson.
Maybe you, personally, wanted that haul because you like some of those players but I think in current value the haul we actually got was better.
i’m just upset because I feel like it only makes the cardinals marginally better. If your going to mortgage the future of a guy like rasmus you need upgrade vastly in the short term. Even if the cards do make the playoffs i’m skeptical if jackson even makes the playoff rotation. But i do heard there are 3 potential ptbnl, heard this on 101.1 espn. I hope they are good prospects but i have my doubts.
Everyone here is badly under-rating Jackson. He is probably somewhere near as good as Chris Carpenter right now, and has accumulated more WAR than any of our starters this year.
Jackson provides dependable innings. In the short term this is a deal that addresses a number of issues with the 2011 Cardinals. All of that I’m O.K. with.
That said, I guess what troubles me, with the overall performance of the organization in a meta-sort of picture, is the pattern the organization has been in for a few years now. Hearing things now, after the outwash of the trade yesterday, like field management calling Rasmus, “Luhnow’s boy”, etc. etc.
Seems to me like old war wounds have never healed, dating all the way back to the year of the Jocketty dismissal and TLR’s uncertainty he’d be back as St Louis manager because of it. He came back, of course, but there’s always seemed like there’s been a well-hidden schism that, even to date, will occassionally rear it’s head despite the denials of the factions. The gradual increased influence of Luhnow within the organization has been resented.
I’d have thought such speculations as overblown (like the gunman on the grassy knoll), but I keep seeing casualties of the old cold war. I think Mart Mason was a casualty of it last year. And I wonder if Rasmus, at least in a partial sense, isn’t the latest symptom of this old internecine warfare.
Mason definately was. Not because the new guard wanted him out but because he kept mouthing off badmouthing the minors even after a big organizational meeting where everyone could say there piece and then publically put the issue to rest. He choose to continue to talk even after he was given his chance to speak to higher ups in hte organization.
Yeah. I guess that’s what I’ve been wondering for a few years now. And it seems to be brought right back into my thoughts about the organization now.
Seems like a lot of resentment between the two camps. I wonder about things like Colby being viewed as “Luhnow’s Boy” instead of just the “young guy we’re going to give the opportunity to.”
That speaks volumes about field management’s preconceived notions about the player. He already had a mark against him. Seems to indicate a certain amount of antagonism and animosity right out of the gate. Like Rasmus was a person of suspicion to field management before he ever even went into any of his slumps or off-field problems.
It wasn’t only this it was many in the organization wanted him to start full time in 09 and that was Rick Ankiels spot and everyone loved him. I do too. People treated Rasmus like crap his rookie year and alot of it had to do with an outsider being destined to take the spot of a Cardinal and field management favorite. The whole thing started off bad and when TLR got news that there was traction in the talks for a Rasmus contract extension he threw a fit went to the media and sabotaged it.
I don’t like it for the same reason I didn’t like the Ludwick trade—the deal could actually make this year’s team *worse*. Not the kind of trade a serious team with a decent budget should make. Ever.
Serious teams with reasonable payrolls dip into their minor league pool, and trade for a major league talent (i.e., a deal that might hurt a bit in the long run, but basically can’t hurt you now.)
All that said, I think Jackson could work well with Dunc. And, as others have noted, LaRussa apparently couldn’t quite warm up to Colby enough to make for positive work environment.
On balance, the whole thing just saddens.
Corey Patterson?
the ludwick trade helped the cards.
I am glad they didn’t touch any of their top prospects. This team is better off with Jenkings than Rasmus.
Amen!!! Got some good young outfielders down on the farm also.
How do you figure? How is Tyrell Jenkins going to help Tony win one more? He won’t be here until, at best, 2014. Rasmus is here and was producing now. Having TLR sabotage him last night was disgraceful. TLR really needs to go.
And Rasmus was really going to help right now?
Well if bad defence, a sub .250 average and 10 HR is producing, that that production is easily replaceable.
TLR sabotaged him? When the entrie league knows all you have to do is throw off speed away to get him out, its hard to blaim Tony for “sabotage”
I think the first thing that should be done,is Mo can never make an in season trade again.Personalities clashed here,plain and simple, however, they clashed last year and an off season deal should have been done.It’s just hard to trade young and franchise developed top talent for a rental.
I don’t want to be an apologist, but I just want to add some perspective. I know comparing player to player has its shortcomings, but humor me. I am going to compare Colby to another player that was once highly regarded as a top prospect. Perhaps this will help show that not all potential is realized.
I am comparing the 2 at similar ages…22-24 respectively.
Colby:
Age 22 season: 16 HR, 714 OPS, 3 SB
Age 23: 23 HR, 859 OPS, 12 SB
Age 24 (in progress): 11 HR, 753 OPS, 5 SB
Other Player:
Age 22 season: 14HR, 676 OPS, 18 SB
Age 23 (injury shortened): 13HR, 839 OPS, 16 SB
Age 24: 24HR, 771 OPS, 32 SB
This player, now a Cardinal, went on to have 2 more seasons of 700+OPS. Although Corey Patterson was a stud prospect (was #3 and #2 in BA’s top 100 in two different years), he didn’t pan out that well.
Basically…..you just never know.
I’ve always tried not to get caught up in the histrionics concerning TLR and his spats with players over the years. The problem with the Cardinals is that these personality messes/conflicts periodically occur and Mozeliak is left to resolve them. And Mo doesn’t seem that good at fixing them. In fact, he seems to be getting worse.
Rasmus for a two month rental of E Jackson and O Dotel, with Marc Rzepczynski as the only longer -lasting aspect of the trade??????
I’d have to think the chances of resigning Jackson after this year are very negligible. Dotel is, what, nearly 40 years of age??? So there’s that veteran-iness factor for TLR to like, I suppose. So we got a reasonably young and reasonably promising left-hander who may or may not ever be a starter??? That’s a damned one-sided trade.
Mo gave away Rasmus to the Jays for pennies on the dollar. I’m hoping I won’t have to witness Rasmus accumulating a string of 30 – 40 home runs per year seasons for the Blue Jays for the next few years while we wait on some potential sandwich pick from the outwash of this trade try to develop into a useful player.
That’s the thing, though, this trade really doesn’t make much sense in the long run (for those who argue about maximizing the clubs ability to reach post-season for the next few years while Pujols is still here–provided he stays). If we’re in the win now mode— maybe it’s a help. Just don’t know how excited I can get about a few extra starts from E. Jackson. And as for CF, seeing Patterson out there with Jay, I’ll never stop thinking about Patterson as Cub. I’ve seen enough of another old Cub booting ground balls all over the infield this summer. God.
2 first round picks…not bat.
Also, Rasmus will be a free agent when he hits is potential.
The problem is that Rasmus is an above-average outfielder right now who is cost controlled for a couple of more seasons. Add his potential to that, and the return should of had at least one real prospect return.
Rasmus is not an above-average outfielder right now. Some fo the same stats that say he is a good outfielder said Chris Duncan was a good outfielder.
The return was worth that an more. It cost the Jays a prospect to get a Jackson. So you can’t say Jackson isn’t worth it.
For the cards to get him, they would have to trade a Jenkins.
While defensive metrics are problematic, I don’t think anybody would actually equate Rasmus’ defense with Chris Duncan’s. It was his erratic offense that is a real issue–Rasmus’ current two-month funk was a killer to his value. But before that, he was an above-average center fielder who comes cheap and has the potential for much more. In fact, even with his horrible slump, he’s a 1.9 WAR player for this season, right now.
Again, Jackson is a one-season rental for a guy who, in his three seasons with the Cardinals, has been well above replacement level, was showing improvement up until his struggles for the past couple of months, and will be cost-controlled for two more seasons. Sorry, I simply don’t agree with your assessment of Rasmus’s overall value. The Cardinals sold low, and got a low return.
That is fine.
My beleif is that Rasmus will not stick in center. He has shown me nothing that he was an above-average fielder.
Alot can be learned, and he has the tools. I just think alot is instinctual and he doesn’t have it.
“Rasmus is not an above-average outfielder right now. Some fo the same stats that say he is a good outfielder said Chris Duncan was a good outfielder.”
I agree with your general point regarding this trade, FWIW, but this comment is unbelievably ignorant, to the point of almost revelling in the fact.
Sorry. I wasn’t meaning to compare their defensive ability, but rather as a knock on D-vensive metrics.
That’s fine. FWIW the main defensive metric of choice (UZR) thinks Rasmus is slightly below-average in CF. That tallies with my eyes as well, to be honest.
>>2 first round picks…not bat.<<
There is only a chance for 1 pick on Jackson. There is an option on Dotel so either pick up the option or don't. Arb not involved so no comp pic possible.
We can decline the option on Dotel and still offer him arbitration. I doubt we do that though.
Dotel would accept arb in a heart beat…
PJ, OPS+ of 111 and 92 there, big difference in run environment. Then if we look at age 23-24 seasons it’s 123 OPS+ to 101. Then basically like you kind of admit to, it would be silly to project Rasmus to down a similar career path.
Defense, speed, and the human element are also factors. I am not saying Colby=Corey.
this trade was not about players, it was about personalities, and more so TLR. Colby has been young and immature, but TLR has had problems with so many players, I almost expect this stuff. the short term is that they have a better bullpen, much more so with Mclellan likely going back to the pen with Jackson on board. Rzepcynski and Dotel, with Mac, really help the pen. it’s the long term that sucks. you (IMHO) can’t sell out the future this way. Jackson will be a FA, Dotel also I believe. you wind up with a pretty good LHRP, and a 4A outfielder for someone with the potential to be a star. granted it is more potential than reality at this point, and true, it likely wouldn’t have happened with TLR here anyway. all we hear is that the Card’s are going to build thru the draft and kids now….how can you do that with TLR here? he can’t deal with kids who don’t come up as grizzled vet’s. Rasmus, Greene, will likely move on and I hope they become solid players. I am not a TLR fan, I would rather have a HOF player than manager anyday.
Have to agree, Dan, about the personality issue thing. I’m beginning to think that, after a while, it becomes harder to justify these trades and just keep saying it’s always the player’s fault and he needed to go for the good of the team. Because, in several of these instances it HASN”T turned out to be in the best interest of the team.
Rolen is a clubhouse problem, so he has to go. And we struggle along for years afterward at third base. Kennedy is a problem at second. And we struggle for several seasons sorting that position out. B Ryan is a clubhouse problem. And this year we get to watch Theriot posing unsuccessfully as a shortstop.
Do we now add CF as a chronic question mark?? Jay still seems more valuable to me as a fourth outfielder. I don’t know how his bat holds up over a whole season. Maybe it does. I dunno. Though, at this point, one has to ask if we aren’t screwing ourselves again at yet another position because the player in question, “had to go for the good of the team”?? That’s starting to wear a little thin. Especially if you’re a ball club who says you want to grow and develop your own talent. We seem to be eating our young.
who are the “so many players”? Rolen, Ryan and Colby?
Apparently, Brendan Ryan wore out his welcome, even with his teammates. Scott Rolen was stubborn (and you may recall the Cards only got him b/c he wore out his welcome in Philly). And Colby just couldn’t seem to come to grips with that fact that the team (coaches and players) were unwilling to coddle him like everyone else has done at every step previously in his past career.
I’m not saying that Tony couldn’t have handled these players better. But at some point, players have to be held responsible for their actions. He and his coaches are trying to create a winning environment. If a player attempts to undermine that process, they need to be addressed.
I’ll never forget the time on the radio when Mike Matheny — all around nice guy, right — said that the single most important thing he taught Yadier Molina was “how to deal with Tony.”
Maybe that was b/c he could also tell quickly that there wasn’t a lot else he needed to teach Yadi.
yeah, the other 5 starters (indluding Colby’s replacement) 3 starters, most of the bullpen didn’t seem to have a problem.
I agree that LaRussa’s clashes with certain players has been a bit overblown, but there is one worrisome aspect to it.
All teams will have some players experiencing personality clashes with managers. The problem is that when LaRussa has those clashes, it tends to turn into a situation detrimental to the team, which in turns forces management to sell low on a talent. There’s an inflexibility to LaRussa’s approach to management that has, it could be argued, created distractions and injured the team’s ability to operate effectively.
Joe Torre dealt with a myriad of personalities in the New York locker room, and never had a run of players being forced out in the way that has happened in the past few seasons in St. Louis. Then again, he’s a manager who’s strength was dealing with difficult players, which is why he had so much success in New York.
I would agree with some of that.
JD Drew was moved out much the same way, you might argue. I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Tony had had similar problems with players in Chicago and Oakland.
The point is that it is actually the manager’s JOB, in addition to managing the game, to resolve clubhouse problems, disputes, and personality clashes — NOT START THEM.
I don’t know of any of these players causing problems with their teammates, nor can I name any manager that has consistently had personality problems with his players like Tony has.
I would not disagree with the basics of your position. I think a lot of that is true. And, as I said earlier, I try not to get caught up in the histrionics of the, “TLR hates the young guys ” narrative. I don’t see enough data to support that sort of general statement. Still, I think, as you apparently do, and so state in a salient part of your post, “TLR could have handled these players better.”
I guess my point is not so much in villifying TLR, per se, as it is that, once these things seem to start, Mo’s ultimate solutions to these problems always seem to set us back at that player’s given position for long periods of time. TLR says something to the press about X player and Mo, challenged enough as it is, apparently, to make a decent trade with someone even in the most favorable of conditions and with the wind at his back, is forced to have to do so in expediency.
And in looking at the balance of this trade, and the way it went down today, I can’t say I’m unquestioningly satisfied with the dyad we have in LaRussa-Mozeliak and the way it seems to work out in this regard..
A few more players the manager has had issues with…
Adam Kennedy – released after his finest defensive season because he didn’t come to the Winter Warm Up.
Ryan Ludwick – traded after he got upset about playing time.
Ozzie Smith – Tony mishandled the situation with him and Royce Clayton causing a rift.
Jim Edmonds – shipped out after a spat with Tony (this was better for the team though).
Anthony Reyes – shipped out after Tony destoyed his value; some players have a skill set and attempting to get them to change it doesn’t always work.
Some of these made the team better, some didn’t. The fact is you don’t see as many of these issues with other teams. There isn’t a reason a player should have to tip toe around issues with the Manager for fear of his doghouse.
I am not nearly as down on this trade as most people here.
Two main points. First, I have been in enough toxic workplace environments to know that sometimes, you simply have to FIX the durn thing. It is probably impossible for any of us outside the clubhouse to know just how much of a problem the TLR/Raz conflict was causing, nor how much will remain because TLR didn’t also get “traded.” I guarantee, however, that there was a problem, and not only was it likely to keep Raz from ever living up to his great potential, it likely was hurting others as well.
Second point. Consider organizational strengths and weaknesses. Right now the Cardinals have a most remarkable glut of good outfielders. In the future (TINSTAAPP) they are likely (TINSTAAPP) to have a glut (TINSTAAPP) of good pitchers (TINSTAAPP), with at least one outfielder on the way (Taveras) who also has a great deal of promise. If there is one place where the major-league team can absorb the loss of a good player, it is in the outfield. That they cleared away some impediments to those minor-league pitchers is no bad thing, either; can anyone consider the inclusion of Walters, Tallet and T. Miller to be anything but addition by subtraction?
I understand that people think it should have been possible to get a great deal more for Raz than we got. For the Raz of their imaginings, that is probably true. For the real-life Raz, I have my doubts, and I am not going to criticize Mo for making a move that, to all appearances, had to be made, regardless of whether they get anything back for the guy. It’s sad, but that’s the way ballplayers are; they’re humans, too.
I think this trade confirms what we knew already. TLR cannot and will not relate to young players.
This trade is so bad that major league baseball should consider appointing a trustee to monitor, review and approve any trades or saless of players by the Cardinals. They are trading Rasmus for the two months rights to a fifth starter.
TLR with his stratagy of playing young players only intermittantly destroys them. He would rather have the known worst fielding shortstop in the majors than have to relate to a young player.
Matt Kempt of the Dodgers had a similar record ot Rasmus last year but he Dodgers knew his potential, left him in the lineup, and did not attack him publicly with snide remarks. This year he is a candidate for MVP. I beiieve Rasmus will hit 30 plus homes with a batting average over
280 next year. The only thing I don’t understand about this trade is why they did not throw in why the Cardinals did not throw in Shelby Miller.
I don’t believe this comment about “TLR cannot and will not relate to young players.”. I think it’s too easily tossed around. I think it’s more appropriate to say that TLR will not ever serve as babysitter to players, young or old. And I just don’t think he needs to apologize for that.
Where are the complaints from him on players like Alan Craig, Dan Descalso, Jon Jay, Tony Cruz or Lance Lynn? Or how about previous young players, Skip Schumaker, Adam Wainwright, Kyle McClellan? All these “young players” have contributed to his teams with success and without complaint.
Just maybe, Colby is the problem (and previously Brendan Ryan).
I think it is more appropriate to say that TLR is a stubborn egotistical bully. The list of players TLR has not gotten along with and the Cardinals then shipped off is much longer than two.
sorry, three then, if you include Rolen. I think Rolen was a different situation than Ryan and Colby. However, I also think that was the only one that was truly just with TLR. I don’t think the players probably had any issue with the parting of Ryan and now Colby. Maybe, just maybe, TLR, as manager, is typically speaking out for the team as a whole.
Rasmus has declined to speak to media since the club returned from its nine-game road trip Sunday but, according to a family member, was “extremely” pleased by the move.
He cleared out of the Cardinals clubhouse by 10 a.m. today and told a Fox Sports Midwest camerman as he left, “I hope he’s happy,” apparently in reference to La Russa.
Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/article_0f7b1b4c-b86e-11e0-86d2-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz1TLPeDveR
There is some validity to your point here. I don’t think that TLR is completely against young players. He has a track record that says otherwise. He also has a track record of being difficult to get along with and running talented players out of town (young and old). He has been a great manager, but he is the type of guy that only works well with the tools he wants instead of the tools he has. That can be frustrating as a fan when his approach seems to limit the organization’s options.
Yeah. What he said.
I agree. But what makes it worse is that he has no qualms about spouting off regarding the difficult situation. That limits the options even more.
I think the point is Tony is reluctant to use younger players. This year, he’s been forced to.
Think of it this way, another manager may not have been as hesitant to use Salas, Sanchez or Boggs as closer when Franklin was ineffective. Another manager might be more willing to give a guy like Tyler Greene a shot instead of allowing Theriot’s defense blow games. Another manager would not give Aaron Miles (or this years version, Nick Punto) or Jeff Suppan (or this years version, Miguel Bautista) a roster spot.
have you ever thought that with 5000 MLB games managed, just maybe he has learned that you cannot throw most young players into the fire? That just maybe he’s seen over the years how quickly other veteran players and coaches can expose the weaknesses of you players (e.g. Jon Jay last year). That just maybe, it’s better to ease young players in, learn from veterans, learn to adapt to the big league level?
There are very few teams that have been consistently successful loading their team up with young players. The Rockies have been trying to do it for years, with very little success. the Pirates have had no success. Yes, Tampa Bay has had some success, but you have to remember that the quality of their young players was head and shoulders above anything Tony has had to work with lately. Plus a lot of their success has been driven by fantastic young arms.
I just don’t think that legitimate young talented players are being pushed aside for these mentioned veterans. They are replacement level player who quickly show they aren’t anything more. Colby would be the exception, and we all know that wasn’t a talent issue.
“That just maybe he’s seen over the years how quickly other veteran players and coaches can expose the weaknesses of you players (e.g. Jon Jay last year).”
I hate this argument. So Jon Jay was “exposed” in full-time playing time last year? Did it escape your attention that he’s been very good this year as basically a full-time player?
In my opinion we are really lucky to have Tony in St. Louis. He’s going down as one of the greatest managers of all time.
think this trade confirms what we knew already. TLR cannot and will not relate to young players.
The 7 ROYS, and the fact that nearly the entire team came through the system disagrees.
But your right. Anthony Reyes has really showed LaRussa up.
Jay…Destoryed. Pujols…Destroyed, Freese…Destroyed.
Who are these careers that were destroyed?
Zuke, you should know after these 16 years that it is simply easier to agree with the blind hate TLR guys than try to use logic with them……TLR sucks :)
I might not like the trade but I stand open minded and give these other news players an opportunity. At the end of the day, Rasmus and his Dad wanted to be traded. This is nothing new. Im disappointed not with Mo, but with Colby Rasmus who has been given so many opportunities with this great organization to excel. It’s time for 24 Rasmus to grow up and stop letting his father tell him what to do. it’s his career and he should make the decisions and not his Father.
I was tired of all the negativity that Rasmus dad brought into our organization. Rasmus is a great player yes, however that doesn’t give him a right to not listen to the Tony or the other Coaches in this organization. There the ones that pay his salary. It was a long time coming and I’m sure our major league team will excel without him.
Is poppa Rasmus coaching in the big’s? If so I must have missed it!!
He indeed does coach son cOLBY…GET THOSE HAND BUSY IN PRESWING!
Think of it like a golf swing. When I played college golf and my swing got out of shape, I went back to my dad if what the coach tried wasn’t working … and apparently what Mac tried with Colby wasn’t working.
This looks an awful lot like the Ludwick for Westbrook boondoggle from last year. Mo seems to have a pattern of trading low. Hope this one works out better than last years, which sent us into the funk that killed our season.
How do you figure?
Boondoggle? Westbrooke went on to pitch very well for this team. What am I missing that woudl consider a “boondoggle”?
I don’t feel that a win-loss of roughly .500 with an ERA that is just under 5.00 is pitching very well. He’s been an average pitcher that eats innings, in my opinion. Last year on a team that needed offense we traded Ludwick, who was the best hitter we had at the time with runners in scoring position, and after he got traded we collapsed because we couldn’t score runs. To me that is a boondoggle. We did not get nearly enough value out of that trade for what we gave up, but again that is only my opinion.
You don’t see the value of a Jake Westbrooke that is going to give you 200 innings and gives his team a chance to win? Well then I guess you don’t understnad whte purpose of a #3 starter is.
You don’t see the value of guy who gave a sub 3.5 ERA last year
And I don’t feel that a sum .250 hitting sub .700 OPS offers as much as you think in terms of offence.
Last yeear the team needed pitching. The stats were skewed because all the good numbers came from 2 guys. 2 guys do not make a rotation. Not sure how you can say that they didn’t need pitching while shutting down GArcia. Can’t see how you can say Ludwick was the answer when he hit a wopping .211 after the trade.
I mean if you ignore the facts and focus on baseless opinion, you might come up with boondoggle.
The cards figured Ludwick’s numbers were easier to replace. Jay, Craig and berkman have all put up better numbers.
Zuke, the only innings the team got from Westbrook last year was 75 and they decided to resign him at a much larger salary (shades of the Lohse deal, imo). He certainly isn’t pitching like a number #3…I wish he would pitch like a number #4 instead of #6.
If you recall, Garcia wasn’t shut down until mid-September…well after Ludwick was dealt. If you like the trade that is fine but don’t alter the facts to suit your argument.
If you recal, they had an inning count on Garcia. They talked about it all year. Do you really think they didn’t consider that when trading for pitching?
75 innings is a lot. Not sure what you mean by “only”
And if you reall, Ludwick hit a wopping .211 after the trade. Not sure why you nit pick Westbrook’s contribution, but give a free pass on .211.
And Westbrook is pitching like a 3/4 he is going to give 200 innings this year.
Huh? That trade was a huge win for the Cardinals. Westbrook produced a lot more than Ludwick did down the stretch. Ludwick was already making more than he was worth and the Pads have been trying to unload him since the season ended with no luck. The Cards’ extension with Westbrook is questionable given that Westbrook hasn’t been very good in 2011 until the last two starts but that doesn’t relate to the trade.
Three PTBNLs…is there anyone in the lower Jays system that would be interesting?
The Jays systems is loaded with talent – specifically from the last 3 drafts. There are a number of guys from last years draft that would get me excited. Does anyone else find it unusual that a deal has 3 PTBNL involved? Its not uncommon to see 1 or 2 but not sure I have ever seen 3.
In all honesty, I think it’s probably a suggestion that they won’t be prospects (or will, at the very best, be C-level guys). If it’s 1 PTBNL, you can imagine they’d give us a list with a few interesting names from which we select one. With 3 PTBNL, I imagine it’ll be a list of organisational filler and very-far-away type guys, as they won’t want to risk losing 3 decent prospects. If we get anybody who’d rank above #15 in our organisational list I’d be very happy.
Any word on the 3 ptbnl???
I dont know…the PBTNL would indicate that the players come out of the 2010 draft. They Jays had a boatload of high picks in that draft so there is some talent there to pick from. Currently I dont trust MO enough to think he got any of the good ones but who knows.
Asher and/or Deck?
They would supply fun names at least
Why don’t you trust his judgement?
Dickie Joe Thon, Griffin Murphy, and Travis D’Arnaud would be ok
Dickie Thon was the first thought that came to mind when I heard PTBNL. An all-star caliber SS would certainly ease the blow.
After perusing the Jays system I am a lot less freaked out by this trade. There are a lot of B type prospects with potential there. Definitely able to find 3 good players off the list. In a way it is like trading Colby for a first round level talent, two supplemental round picks in a loaded 2012 draft, a couple 2nd-3rd round talents that are already playing pro ball, and solves some structural problems on the current team. This is if Mo didnt jut screw the pooch.
Mo has to trade for minor leaguers as they are the only ones that dont stand a high probability of pissing LaRussa off only because they arent on the team. I am pretty sure every body not named Pujols or Carpenter pisses Tony off.
Molina does not piss TLR off
It’s 3 ptbnl or cash considerations which the cards most likely will consider.
According to Goold (on his Twitter), the PTBNL will depend on how the players the Cardinals received performed: “PTBNL/cash could also hinge or be contingent on what players do for #cardinals. A very intricate deal.”
So if they suck it up we get more people but if they succeed then we get nothing?
No idea. That’s the only info out there (outside of Bernie posting that the Cardinals wouldn’t be choosing from Toronto’s top prospects).
My guess? Dontel has an option year. If the Cardinals pick it up, maybe that affects the number of PTBNLs (say, they lose a supplemental pick by picking up the option, so they can pick a middling prospect from Toronto’s farm). If Patterson becomes a starter and hits some performance markers, maybe they lose one of the PTBNLs. But that’s just my speculation.
I think the deal is hinged on MLB. Money trades have to be approved by baseball, so the PTBNL is the fall back.
At first blush, I felt that this trade was beyond a doubt, the worst trade I have seen the Cardinals make in my life time (however short). However, ESPN is reporting that there are 3 PTBNL’s as part of the deal. Though I think it is short sighted to trade Rasmus for the haul we recieved, I think the true value of the trade will only be assesed when we find out who those players are. The Blue Jays have a farm system that has improved drastically over the last couple of years and if the players they will eventually acquire are high upside guys from this draft, it might work out in the end.
Basically, I am saying that we will just have to wait and see.
I don’t hate the move.
Yes, we lost Rasmus, but the team is better. They improved the team without touching any of our top prospects.
Thing is…the Cardinals shouldn’t have had to touch their top prospects in a Rasmus trade, because Rasmus’ value is still attached to his potential. So, that aspect isn’t really a factor for me.
So imroving the team now wasn’t a factor?
What I’m saying is that “improving the team without touching any of our top prospects” (your whole statement, not just part of it) is not a factor to me, because of Rasmus’ potential and value as a young player. Essentially, the team just did what you said they didn’t, but worse, because they did it with a “prospect” who in his brief time in the majors has already shown to be at least an above-average centerfielder. His two-month decline and the ripple effect between LaRussa and Rasmus caused a panic about Rasmus’ overall future.
Isn’t next year’s draft suppose to be a deep one?
Aren’t we likely to pick up a couple of draft picks from Jackson/Dotel? Are either of them close to being Type A’s?
I hate valuing trades this way, but if you think about it like that, and you assign those picks a WAR value, I’m guessing this evens out quite a bit. ESPECIALLY if you consider the fact that we’d likely only have Rasmus for 3 more years.
“Only have Rasmus for 3 more years.” Do you hear yourself? That’s a lot of years for a talented, young CF with tremendous upside.
No, that was this year’s draft.
They’re both on line for type B at present. I guess Jackson might have an outside chance at A, but not according to MLBTR. Two B’s = two supplemental picks (probably both in the 50s), providing the CBA doesn’t change things.
This just in:
@RedbirdReport tweeted, “Rzepczynski’s nickname is Scrabble. I can dig that. It’s much easier to pronounce. And spell. #stlcards”
I’m glad he already has a nickname so you guys don’t resort to calling him “R-ski” or something as lame as “C-Mart.” :)
Don’t mind this trade at all. The other three players the Cards traded had zero value, old and clogged the 40 man(shows you what i think of PJ). I view this trade as Colby for the 4 players. Jackson kicks a solid pitcher out of the rotation, Rzep…becomes the best LH reliever in the system, Dotel brings experience to a young relief group and Patterson adds depth with the loss of Colby. At this point the trade is eh with Colby being cheap for the next 3 years, however, Jackson for sure brings a sandwich pick, Dotel will be very close to that and then there is a ptbnl. Honestly think it is a win win for all parties involved.
Agree 100%.
If there is a PTBNL it’s of the Nick Greenwood variety. Most likely cash considerations and that is determined by how the players do this year. Why not trade Rzep for Jay straight up? Or Jay to Philly earlier in the year.
I am so disgusted. I keep looking for the light at the end of the tunnel but can’t find it. What’s even more depressing is, “what if Albert doesn’t resign?” You just traded one of your only players with offensive potential for a bunch of crap that may not be here after this year. If I were Pujols agent, I would be smiling from ear to ear right now. He really has us by the balls now.
WTF?
I don’t think this will affect Pujols value. He is good enough alone to command top money. And the counter to Pujols value is that we can sign 3 very good players with the money it is going to take to sign Pujols.
I started out not likeing this trade one bit, but I’ve turned the corner to optimism. A lot of that hinges on me believeing that Rasmus is the same guy JD Drew was, tons of inconsistent potential.
The team is definitely in a win now mode. The trade completely revamps our weakest point, the bullpen. I feel more confident throwing K-Mac, RZhjhdfjhfjhfjdhfjdski, or dotel out there than I did with Miller, Tallet, or Walters.
As for the future, we didn’t mortgage the farm to do it. There’s still plenty of hope going forward.
The farm wasn’t mortgaged but the major league team took a big hit.
Rasmus:
He cleared out of the Cardinals clubhouse by 10 a.m. today and told a Fox Sports Midwest camerman as he left,
“I hope he’s happy,” apparently in reference to La Russa.
I am!!!
As much as I know your are happy and think he was referring to you in all your glory… he wasn’t…. :( to bad so sad….!!!
I think that Colby would be gone anyway when he became a FA, he wants to play in the south (Atl) and he is not shown that he can hit consistly and his D is avg at best…….sp
Exactly! He would have never stayed here when he had control of his situation. People seem to underestimate that.
Am I the only one that does not think this is a terrible trade. At least assuming we get some pretty good prospects as PTBNL any. I honestly do not really like Colby. Yeah he has a ridiculous tool set, but he has not worked to improve them. I thought that things were clicking with him and McGwire, but from what I have heard he has basically been ignoring what cardinal coaches tell him and listening to his dad. Granted his dad is a coach I believe, but at the high school level. You cannot tell me he has the experience and knowledge that a major league hitting coach has. Rasmus strikes me as a smug kid who is convinced that what he wants is best. Maybe I am off base, but I am honestly GLAD to see him go. Morevover I do not think that his tools are ever going to really materialize because he is not going to do what it takes to get them there. I don’t think we lost as much as people think. Tools are nice but if they are not properly used they are ABSOLUTELY WORTHLESS.
This said I am optimistic that the prospects we will get later will be solid prospects, hopefully with at least one star potential player thrown in. But we will see.
“Smug kid”? I don’t see it. I do, however, see a “deer in the headlights” look whenever I look at Raz — a look that I have seen on the faces of other performers (I’m a musician) when they are in something where their talents are more than up to the job, but their personal comfort with the role is less than zero. Frankly, it’s a sad thing to see. Here he is, playing at the highest level in a role that most of us here would have given ten years off our lives to have at the same age … and he always looks like he’s hating it.
What’s he been like in personal appearances? I think there are some people at Viva El Birdos that have seen him up close, although not necessarily “up close and personal.”
Hitting philosophies are different, remember when TLR gave Rasmus his blessing to work with his dad. It was a big thing in the paper, Tony and Tony talking in the stands at Spring Training. Last year when Rasmus was at his best was immediately after he worked with his dad. He gets screwed up when he tried to be a slap hitter and hit for a higher average. He’s naturally a power hitting pull hitter. He is what he is. Rasmus was in talks with Mo about a contract extension as little as a month ago. TLR brought this whole thing up again to force an issue and create a toxic enviroment so Mo HAD to trade Rasmus to relieve the pressure. It’s very unprofessional especially knowing that TLR only cares about this year and may not even be back next year.
Couldn’t agree more. I definitely would have like to have seen Colby step up and mature a little more this year but having TLR undermine him was uncalled for. National writers are killing the Cards for this deal and for good reason. At best they have marginally improved the team this year and drastically sold out 2012-2014 to mollify TLR (who probably won’t be here then).
Yeah… I’m sure one of the prospects that we will be receiving is Deck McGuire…. Please:(
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592547
This is the same shit that Angel fans were saying about Edmonds when he left for Kennedy and Bottenfield.
What we lost from this years team is an outfielder who was hitting in the .240s, striking out quite a bit and often looking disinterested in the outfield. That, and three marginal pitchers.
The Cards gained three non-marginal pitchers and a fast centerfielder who, ironically, never met the “potential” he brought to the majors.
Two other quick points. the first, we will be receiving some $$$ or three ptbnl. Who would they be?
The second is that TLR’s problem with Rasmus was not that Colby didn’t laugh at TLR’s jokes. Rasmus seemingly was not using his supposed 5 tools and was not (evidently) listening to coaches who possibly could have helped him.
Mike good point… we will be receiving Deck McGuire as on of the PTBNL…. Good Deal!!! Sure…. and pigs fly… the PTBNL are nothing…. Mo’s an idiot as well.
Is this a fact? Or are you just assuming that will happen?
According to Bernie: “The Cardinals won’t be choosing from among Toronto’s elite prospects.”
Of course they wont be picking from the elite at the top of the system, otherwise they would have just named the players. They could be picking from an interesting collection b-level prospects.
Or they could be picking c-level prospects and/or organizational guys. We know for sure weren’t not getting their best prospects but we don’t know anything more than that.
Well…I hate the trade too, at least as far as I know what it was. The allusions to ptbnl’s intrigues me but I wonder who they are and where they go to. If the Cardinals get them then I don’t know why the White Sox made the trade. If the Cards do get somebody interesting then it may actually be a palatable trade. The guy who challenges Zbigniew Brzezinski for the world’s most unspellable name does seem to have some potential. It is not a total given that we won’t resign Jackson and he would bring a draft choice if he books. Dotel can help this year and Mclellan goes to the pen so, with a little effort, we can sort of look at it as a “win now” trade. If the ptbnl’s are interesting it could be better than that. It may have been the best we could do in an impossible situation. We have a hall of fame manager who can’t deal with certain players, has to win now and something’s gotta give.
We won’t be signing Jackson, he’s a Boras guy and wants a big contract. I really doubt the Cardinals are not going to sign Carp because of Jackson.
Can we get an in depth scouting report on scrabble? This trade being awful or just slighltly bad hinges on him
I do remember reading a few weeks ago that Toronto had said that they were not willing to include him in any trades. If he can be the lefthanded reliever that is needed this season and subsequently become a rotation candidate with guys like Freeman and Wright surfacing as lefty relievers, then he will be a good add.
From what I can tell – a sinkerballing lefty with a wipeout slider and occasional changeup. The slider is low-to-mid 90s with a lot of lateral movement, seemingly, and is murder on lefties especially. The change is a marginal third pitch but he can obviously get it over because he doesn’t have a heavy platoon split. The fastball sits around the 90mph mark, OK for a lefty I guess.
He has a 3.94xFIP as a starter, and somewhere in the 3.30s as a reliever. He looks to have been a bit unlucky with HR in his career in Toronto, with a 13% HR/FB rate which has underpinned his 4.00 ERA and 4.12 FIP so far. He started most of the last two years (with some trips up and down from the minors). He was one of the Jay’s top 10 prospects previously, putting up FIPs in the 2.60s as a starter in A ball and AA in 2008 and 2009 respectively, and striking out more than a batter per inning at both levels. Has only made 14 starts in AAA (mostly last year), putting up a good K/BB rate but struggling a bit with the long ball.
He’s a reliever this year but I think he profiles as a possible starter long-term. The fact his platoon split is not massively pronounced (his xFIP is around 4.20 vs righties, which isn’t too bad for a lefty, and he has started with some effectiveness in the past, 3.94 xFIP as I said as a SP) and the fact he is a groundball machine (61% GB rate this year, in the 50s the last two years) suggests to me he could be a solid #3 with a bit of luck. His current 3.94 xFIP would make him about a 3WAR player as a starter, if he can keep it up for a full year, although his highest IP total is ~160 (last year).
Overall, I think I’m quite impressed by him.
Sorry, typo – slider is low-to-mid 80s.
I was about to say, mid 90′s slider would be awesome
Overall, yea, i like that report…i wish we had gotten MI help as well though
Me too. I’d have taken a flier on Aaron Hill, actually, despite two poor years. That said, I think they declined his odd option years so he might be a FA next year.
The one concern with Scrabble is his slightly funky delivery. His max single season is 160IP, so will he be able to manage the workload of a SP?
So is there a PTBNL list? I was under he impression we were probably taking the money
Yea, the fact that there is a money option makes me think that the ptbnl list is not so great. If it was, then it would be a no-brainer to take the players. Unless the cash is a few million, but it’s usually a few hundred thousand, which is not all that interesting.
Why all the hate…Jon Jay can contrubute more to the team than Rasmus and actually appears to like to play the game in STL. Plus the bullpenn that has cost the Cards so many games got better with the the removal of Tallet and Miller and the addition McClellan, Dotel, Rzepczynski. Maybe a few extra draft picks in addition and the possibility of a few minor prospects from Toronto. Makes sense for a team making a playoff run.
Rasmus could contribute more than Jay…Jay has been luckyish…Rasmus has been very unlucky…even with that, they both contributed almost equally…Jay is a very solid player….he is no colby rasmus
If Toronto’s catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud is on the list of potential PTBNL’s, could he ease some of the pain of underselling Rasmus? D’Arnaud is expected to be ready for the Major Leagues in 2012. The Cards need to start grooming Yadi’s successor. His MLB prospect profile says, “He’s got an outstanding arm behind the plate and is more than agile enough to be a stellar defender. He’s got a quick bat and should have decent power….” He has a .905 OPS at AA this year.
He won’t be on the PTBNL list.
He probably won’t, but there is still a good chance that somebody useful will — possibly three somebodies. I was prepared to be underwhelmed by the Toronto farm system, until I started reading what guys like Goldstein think of it, which is definitely not what I was expecting. They emphasize its depth — Goldstein calls it “one of baseball’s deepest” systems. Snagging a couple of B- prospects still looks possible even if the top ten guys are protected.
Come in off the ledge, people. This trade may be infuriating, but it isn’t the disaster that some people paint it to be.
On what information are you suggestion that we will be getting B- level prospects from Toronto? I’m not trying to be accusatory but I haven’t seen this written in any of the stories I have read.
I have no information on who is available on the PTBNL list. The point is that Toronto has a lot more B- or C+ guys in their system than most teams. If the top ten in their system are off limits as PTBNLs (as is likely), there may still be B- guys who would not be. Sickels had 15 guys on his pre-season Toronto rankings who were graded B- or higher. That is an exceptionally large number. (Some teams had as few as four.) The C+ guys went deeper than 20, which was the cutoff for his evaluations. And that’s before the 2011 draft.
It’ll be very interesting to see just who the PTBNLs are. One thing I guarantee: whatever their level, they will be better than they would have been if the deal had been transacted solely with the White Sox, who are exactly the opposite of Toronto, having a very shallow system.
Doubt it – I’d have swapped Rasmus for d’Arnaud + a LOOGY, I think.
I am not a TLR fan. What I can’t understand is if the Cardinals were planning to trade Rasmus, TLR had to open his mouth
on Tuesday and criticize Rasmus. This could only weaken the bargaining position of the Cardinals in seeking the maximum return for Rasmus. Other teams would know the Cardinals must trade Rasmus since TLR would not acceptance his continued
play for the Cardinals.
100% on the money…. TLR should have kept his mouth shut… and if I were the GM it would be him getting replaced and not the player. I actually believe that TLR felt by opening his mouth that it would make it where Rasmus had to finally be tarded. The only problem is that he lowered what we could get for him instead. I feel if he had K Greene on his team and wanted him off his team… he would tell the world on live TV that K Greene was a nut case…
I liked the pre-game interview of TLR on FSMW. “Well ahh… we traded a promising young pitcher in Walters and moved Miller and Tallent and by the way ahhhhhh… we did include another guy Rasmus”…
What a POS he didn’t even what to say we traded a promising OF in Rasmus and included these others in the trade. Couldn’t even give credit to the guy or acknowledge the guy!!!!
Of course you also have to look at what the Jays gave up just for Jackson, a good reliever, their number 5# prospect, supposedly, and they had to eat Teahan’s contract (yum, yum). So Toronto ended up giving up 3 decent relief pitchers, their number 5# prospect and a ton of cash for Rasmus.
My big problem with the trade is that I do not think Jackson is just a mediocre starting pitcher. He has talent. Maybe Dunc can work his magic with him but I just don’t think he does that much for us this year. Hope I’m wrong.
Mo should just go ahead and trade all of our top prospects now before they reach MLB and see their trade value crumble. If it’s not TLR’s head games and abhorrence of any prospect with talent, it’s Duncan’s requirement that all of his young pitchers undergo TJ surgery within two years of reaching the bigs.
This reminds me of when we traded ” young Mantle” a.k.a. J.D. Drew. Lot’s of gnashing of teeth then too.
You are joking right? Please tell me you are kidding? This return has a fraction of the value that one had at the time of the trade. Notice I said “at the time of that trade.” In other words, everyone knew then without knowing what Adam Wainwright would become that we received adequate return.
This is a joke.
How can DeWitt be so successful and let someone piss the value of his franchise away.
F-Mozeliak. He is obviously afraid of his subordinates.
It should be noted that Drew was hitting .289 with a .889 OPS at the time of his trade. His value was higher than Rasmus’ is right now. The Cardinals sold low.
Also, let’s review the two trades:
J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and Adam Wainwright.
The trade was an off-season deal, made in mid-December. The oft-injured Drew played in 100 games in 2003 due to injury (Atlanta’s doctors had to clear the trade) and would be eligible for free agency after the 2004 season.
At the time of the trade, King was a veteran 29-year-old left-handed reliever coming off 80 appearances and 59 innings pitched with a 1.59 SO/BB ratio, a 3.66 FIP, and an even RHB/LHB split (.200/.223). All-in-all, a decent reliever.
Marquis was a struggling young starter. After two seasons starting a total of 38 games, Marquis was moved to the bullpen in 2003, where he made 19 relief appearances with a 5.53 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and a 0.1 WAR that season (he was 1.3 in 2001 and .3 in 2002 as a starter). Not really a prize.
Wainwright was considered to be the Braves’ top prospect. At the time, he had just finished Double A ball, where he had finished 10-8 with a 3.37 ERA, and a 3.46 SO/BB ratio. In the sidebar to the ESPN story on the trade, an unnamed National League scout calls Wainwright a possible No. 2 or 3 starter with a great arm and build.
So, for a promising bluechip MLB position player who was producing but had not reached his full potential due to injury issues and a back-up catcher who could play outfield (but also was coming off an ankle injury), the Cardinals got a solid reliever, a reclamation project for a starter, and a top pitching prospect who wasn’t tabbed to be ace material yet.
Now….Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller, P.J. Walters, and Brian Tallet for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson, plus PTBL that could be B or C level prospects or cash.
This is a deadline deal, the timing of which can adversely affect the return when you’re trading young talent. We all know about Rasmus’ struggles, so I won’t rehash them here. What the Cardinals got back:
This season, Edwin Jackson has started 19 games, pitched 121.2 innings, has a 3.21 FIP, and earned a 2.49 SO/BB ratio. He hasn’t give up many home runs (0.6 per 9 innings) and has a 46.3% groundball rate. He’s got a rep as a bit of a workhouse (more than 200 innings pitched the past two seasons). He’s a rental, but he’s exactly the kind of pitcher the rotation needs right now.
Marc Rzepczynski could be seen as your better, left-handed Jason Marquis in this trade. He started 23 games between the 2009 and 2010 seasons, but struggled (4.14 and 4.57 FIP). He was moved to the bullpen this season and, unlike Marquis, did better: 3.34 FIP in 43 appearances. Still, the potential is there to start: in his two brief partial seasons as a starter in the majors, he got a 51.2% and a 51.0% groundball rate each season and has a decent SO/BB per 9 innings split. His best pitch, apparently, is his slider with a 15.6% strikeout rate. What’s odd is that his stats pretty much hold steady as a reliever or as a starter…this season, he’s a 0.5 WAR reliever, while he was a 0.5 WAR starter in 2010. He also had a fractured middle figure in 2010 that took him out 6 weeks. He’s a decent long-term asset who can help now, but he’s not a lock as a starter candidate.
Octavio Dotel is an oft-traveled right-handed bullpen veteran (played with the Rockies, Pirates, and Dodgers last year). This season, he has had 36 appearances, 29.1 innings pitched, and a 4.59 FIP. He also has an 11.9% home-run-to-flyball ratio with a 77.8%, which is about league average. Basically, he’s usuable toss-in, but nothing much.
Corey Patterson is a former top center field prospect who, like Rasmus, has struggled in the majors, but has struggled longer and worse. Since leaving the Cubs in 2005, he’s played for 4 other franchises (and the Orioles twice). This season is matching up with his career numbers, which are .253 batting average, .402 SLG, .298 BABIP, and a .694 OPS (his slugging and OPS are lower this year). At best, he’s a bench guy. At worst, he’s a get-this-player-off-our-hands guy.
So, for Rasmus, two flailing relievers, and a soft-tossing pitching prospect running out of time, the Cardinals got a rental workhouse, two relievers (one of which could become a lefty starter), and a depth outfielder.
In terms of WAR, Rasmus this season is a 1.4 WAR player, after being a 4.3 WAR player last season. Drew was coming off a season when he was a 2.8 WAR player. The season before, he was a 1.9 WAR player, but had been a 5.9 and a 4.0 WAR player before that. Also, Drew had just turned 28 at the time of his trade (Nov. birthdate), while Rasmus will turn 25 this August.
The key different between the trades is that Drew was a veteran whose injuries prevented him from reaching his full potential, and he was near his first big free agent deal. Coming off yet another injury helped push down his value, but he had produced when healthy and did so in a number of seasons. At this point, Colby is not a veteran but a young player with a load of potential who has some off-field issues that can serve as a distraction (namely, his father’s involvement) and some focus issues. He’s had one good season of production (last year) and even with his struggles this season, he’s still shown flashes of his potential. With Rasmus, the team was trading more on that potential than his production, while with Drew there was more of a balance between the two. In addition, the Rasmus trade is a deadline deal, in which the Cardinals need something in return to help the team now, since Rasmus would be their best trade piece.
Still, at the time of the Drew trade, a reliever, a reclamation project starter, and an excellent prospect wasn’t a huge return for the kind of player Drew was. Wainwright’s ascension to Cy Young contender, Marquis’s few seasons of usability, and King’s expected decent performance made that trade a win for the Cardinals (Drew had a breakout year for the Braves but left for the Dodgers the next season). But the results weren’t known until much, much later. Same with this trade. At first blush, the return looks woeful. But if Rasmus doesn’t fulfill his talent, then it’s a win. If Jackson helps the Cardinals reach the playoffs this season, if Rzepczynski turns into a mid-rotation starter, and if some useful prospects come back that contribute the same way that Descalso, Cruz, and others have….even then, if Rasmus turns into the player he’s projected to be, then it’ll be a lose for the Cardinals. That’s the risk. And that’s why that “if” made any trade problematic from the get-go.
On Dontel…the 77.8% is a LOB%.
Nice write-up.
Good Job.
Also, I still think that Rasmus will reach that potential. But will he reach in the next 3 years before free agency?
Also, Patterson does nothing or me. The cards did not need another LF CF.
I agree on Patterson…he’s kinda like an equal garbage exchange for them taking on Miller and Tallet (who needed to leave to make room for Scrabble and Dontel). The only real advantage is that they can use him to spell Berkman until he heals.
That is simply untrue. Drew was a one-year rental. Colby is cost controlled for 3+ years.
Oh, good night. Pujols, Molina, Wainwright, Garcia, Freese … Lots of abhorrence for those prospects with talent, wasn’t there?
Take deep breaths.
It was totally different as Drew was going to be a FA the next year and we weren’t willing to sign him to a big contract. This situation is 1000x’s different. This is more like trading the underperforming Andy Van Slkye.
In other news, in case anyone still cares about the farm system: Memphis gets whomped, Springfield wins on a gem by Gast (and no HR from Adams, remarkably enough), PB is rained out, QC wins as Taveras and Wong get two hits each, Batavia doesn’t fare well.
Glad to see Gast recovered well from his last poor performance. Wondering if he and Rzep will be the 2 loogy’s on the Big Club next year.
Not to pile on to Colby, because I think he has some pretty solid tools and could be one of the top centerfielders in all of baseball, but his tools are nowhere near as impressive as J.D. Drew’s were. That guy was pure poetry on the rare occasion he took the field and put in an effort. I still remember that moonshot he drilled against the Cubs. Just baseball beauty.
Drew could have easily been the best outfielder of his era if he could have stayed healthy and shown more drive.
I’m not sure I’d agree about the “nowhere near as impressive” part, but the matter of comparables for Raz is a thread worth pulling. Who ARE the man’s comparables? Not only in physical gifts, but also in makeup, and particularly, extent to which personal frictions in the team he first came up with affected his play (and in the case of the comparables, subsequent career)? Who are the enormously gifted players who had a rocky start with a team under a manager they didn’t like? How many of them ever developed those gifts into superstardom?
ESPN’s Kruk said last night when he talked to Colby in spring he did indicate he was unhappy (he talked about not playing everyday) .
That was true, he wasn’t buying the koolaid Tony was selling, period.
He wanted out, to a young team he could relate too, this has been since he joined the big club, I know that is what he wanted and must have been hard being very young in an older clubhouse (yeah I know it’s younger now but damage done).
We don’t know all of the circumstances, it’s usually not one sided.
It’s over,he’s moved on, we should too.
Since when does the employee { Rasmus } tell the boss { TLR } how to run the team? Give me a break!!
Well well well.
I have to say, I thought this trade could end up being a lot worse, but the more I think about it I actually think this is a pretty damn good haul for Rasmus. I think you can forget about Miller/Tallet/Walters as they have no value (albeit we pick up some salary relief), likewise Patterson (unless he gets significant playing time – hopefully he’s basically used as a defensive substitute for Berkman and nothing more; he’s probably no better than Skip as a CF).
So we basically dealt Rasmus for Jackson, Dotel and Rzepczynski. Jackson is a genuinely good pitcher and a big improvement over KMac, even for only the 10 or so starts he makes, tops; he’s a guy I’ve always liked. Dotel is no better than anyone in our pen now, so I hope he’s not used as anything other than the 4th or 5th righty, but he does have some limited value. Rzepczynski finally gives us a lefty who can get lefties out, and serve as a set-up guy too because his platoon split isn’t huge.
For the rest of the year, the dropoff from Colby to Jay (and the need to give other guys more PT, like Craig and possibly Chambers) is maybe ~1 win, tops. We gain at least 1 win, I’d have thought, by simply moving Jackson into KMac’s spot, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the cumulative effect of KMac into the pen (where he can face some lefty-heavy innings) plus Dotel (better than Walters/Dickson) and Rzepczynski (big upgrade to Tallet/Miller) is worth another win or so. So we’re net ~1 win better, in a close race, and we’re much better set-up for the playoffs if we make it (did anyone really want Lohse starting game 3?!).
If the CBA continues to provide compensation picks for unsigned free agents (which it almost certainly will do, from everything I’ve heard) we have TWO type-B guys there in Jackson and Dotel (in fact, I assume Dotel is really only included in order to gain the pick; he’s no better than Motte, Boggs, Lynn or probably KMac now, so he’s a marginal upgrade at best in the pen). That’s two picks in the 35-60 range in next year’s draft. That’s a very valuable thing.
And so we come to Rzepczynski (that name’s going to give me problems for the next 4 years). I have to say, I really quite like him as a haul, if (and it is an IF, but everything I’ve heard suggests it’s the case) the plan is for him to LOOGY this year and start next year. I really think we’re under-rating this acquisition – he’s got a 3.94 xFIP as a starter, in basically the toughest hitting environment in baseball; you’d expect an improvement moving to the NLC. He’s a lefty groundballer who throws a dynamite slider, and he has an impressive K-rate (against both lefties and righties). If he can tighten up his control a little and/or Duncan can improve his approach on the mound, he really has a chance to turn into a very good starter. If not, he’s at least as good as guys like Chris Narveson. As a starter, he’s struck out 8.27 per 9IP, with a 51% GB rate. Even though he’s walking 4 per 9IP, those are impressive numbers, in over 20 starts. I think the only reason he hasn’t starter much in Toronto this year is because their rotation is pretty stacked now.
A 3.94xFIP starter is about a 3-WAR player over a full season of starts, and he’s only 25 and moving to an easier pitching environment so there’s possibly room for improvement. Even assuming he struggles with the move, and assuming his HR/FB right continues to be as high as it is, he’s probably a league-average starter when stretched out (2 WAR). If my math is right he’s got 4 years of team control left.
If we basically consider the Miller/Tallet/Walters/Patterson elements of the trade to be a wash, we have traded:
3 years of team control of a 3-WAR CF with 5-6 WAR upside who has fallen out with the coaching staff, for:
1 extra win in 2011 (conservatively)
2 likely supplemental picks in next year’s draft
4 years of team control of a 3-WAR starter, who carries a bit of risk that he might end up merely a good set-up man or a back of the rotation starter, with a little more upside.
Like I say, I like this move, and even given Colby’s considerable upside, I think it’s a good haul for him. A lot of the deal hinges on where you think Rzepczynski fits in, but if the team (as I expect) plan for him being in the rotation next year, it makes a lot of sense, and actually possibly frees up money for Albert and other necessary additions such as a shortstop to replace Mr Suckiot (as Rzepczynski presumably lessens the necessity to retain Carpenter or sign a stopgap starter). I think you can even frame it as a slight win for us (cue flames….).
also, forgot to mention the possibility (I think?) of some PTBNLs. I imagine they’re likely to be no more than C-level prospects but perhaps we get a future middle infield backup guy or bullpen arm in that haul. Regardless, anything additional can’t be a bad thing.
This isn’t a good or bad thing, just an observation…
The cards could end up with 8 first round picks next year.
Their own, Pujols, Carp, Berkman, Jackson, Dotel.
that would be unreal…and would probably force MLB to change the rules of compensation
They will not get anything for Dotel
Eugene – You see problems with managers on almost every team. Look at the Posada situation this year with the Yankees. That was a huge public mess. The simple fact is when you have players with big egos making millions of dollars it will always cause temporary problems. The simple fact is the Cards have a better team chemistry this year then last year and they didn’t want to see that blow up mid-season because of one highly talented but underperforming CF.
I also think everyone should realize when you talk about Colby being at a “low” cost for the next 3 years that is all relative. He will likely make $6-10 million / year for the next 3 years and may not even be our everyday CF given his prone to bad slumps. That is cash we could use to resign Berkman even if the Pujols deal gets done. I for one would rather have an outfield of Jay/Berkman/Holiday then Colby/(Jay or Craig)/Holiday. Berkman brings way more offensive power to the table and is a true middle of the order hitter.
A draft pick for Dotel? Not likely! That would require us turn down his option and then offer him arbitration and for him to not accept. And why would he not accept arbitration? He’s 37 y.o. – no one is giving him a multi year contract. In arbitraton he is likely making over $3 million since one of the main components is previous salaries and he has been over $3 million for most of the last 5 years.
I don’t see the Cards offering arbitration and if they do I think Dotel is likely to accept.
The sources I’ve consulted (notably player predictions at Baseball Prospectus) seem to think he’s a reasonable candidate to remain useful for another year or (at most) two before his performance falls off a cliff. If so, then assuming he does qualify as a Type B, declining his 2012 option followed by offering arbitration may be viable. The worst outcome would be paying market value for a reliever expected to be serviceable, although not outstanding. Would he actually be “serviceable” in 2012? Hard to say, but we’ll at least have August and September to hone the prediction.
They don’t have to offer a multi-year contract. Arbitrtion is one year.
They just have to offer 80% of what he made last year. They offer 2.8. If Dotel wants that, he takes it. He might be able to swing a 2 year deal somewhere.
Rzepcynski and Joe Kelly went to the same college….just FYI
Perhaps they can become reacquainted as big league starters soon(ish)
I don’t think we are going to get a draft pick for Dotel either. The Cardinals have been very conservative about who they offer arbitration to. Heck, we might even have to worry about them not offering arbitration to Jackson if we pay Pujols what he is worth.
I hope they did a great job scouting Rzepcynski because that is the only way this deal works IMO.
Rasmus will certainly get regular playing time now that he is out of STL so his numbers are bound to look better just because he is out on the field all the time, and with a some improvement added to that extra playing time this trade has the potential to rival the Mulder trade for modern day duds.
Dotel fits right in with the Cardinals, 40 plus in order to pitch out of our pen, unreal. He is a China Doll anyway. Bring up Dickson.