Commentor Gruntosaurus made a comment yesterday indicating interest in hearing more about Ryan Copeland, the lefty who has been tearing up the Midwest league. Ask, Gruntoaurus and you shall receive.
Ryan Copeland was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2010 MLB draft as a 4th year senior out of Illinois State University. He was converted from a starter to a reliever for his senior year. He’s a command/control guy, who’s career 1.29 BB/9 in college has carried over to his professional career (1.1 BB/9).
His numbers are fantastic over his first two seasons. His strikeout rate of 8.1 K/9 last year was good, but has improved it by a whole strikeout and a half to 9.6 K/9, which paired with his walk numbers are downright gaudy. This year he has struck out 62 and walked just 7 (7!) in 58 innings. He has a quality, but not otherworldly GB rate at 48%.
He is getting a little bit lucky with a .278 BABIP and 68.8% LOB%, which should regress his numbers to the mean a bit, but that will not largely affect his numbers overall.
However, that all having been said, Copeland is a good solid lefty with great number, but a non-prospect right now because of his age. He was severely old at Johnson City last year at 22 and skipped Batavia, but is still very old for the Midwest league right now at 23. At that age, to be considered a quality prospect, he would have to be at least in Springfield in AA. I will be happy to come back to Copeland later as he continues to rise in the minor leagues, but right now he is dominating as a Senior pitching to a Freshman with the numbers to show for it.
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any info on his stuff?
He’ll be in Friday’s QC trip report.
I like this guy too. Figure he is one that will stick at QC for the rest of the season for the playoff run, but with his age I could definitely see him starting at AA next season.
Thanks for the information. I echo Matt’s request re: stuff though as that seems more relevant than his age in determining his prospects. The Cardinals (and probably most teams) have a lot of guys who are succeeding at low levels without rave reviews on their fast balls. Copeland, Siegrist, Whiting, Butler and Wright fall into this category. We know that some pitchers without great velocity have succeeded in the majors. I guess the question is what is it about their makeup and “stuff” that lets them succeed and do any of these guys have those qualities.
This may be beyond anybody’s expertise here but knowing what major leaguers these guys could be compared to would make it more fun to follow them.
think Zack Britton type stuff with a Hoffman change up
Thanks for the review.
A couple of comments. First, remember that this is a guy who was drafted just last year, and in a very low round. He has been moving through the system at a normal rate for a prospect (and I suspect he’d be moving faster if Palm Beach was in the post-season hunt and QC was not); he just got a very late start on the conveyor belt, having stayed in college and not started his pro career until he was already 22. Can’t really blame him for that.
Second, keep in mind that he’s a lefty, in which case “stuff” doesn’t mean exactly what it does for a righty. A lefty who touches 91 on the gun has adequate “stuff” in terms of velocity, whereas a righty who can’t get beyond that point is viewed as a soft tosser. (“Soft.” Think about that the next time you try to light up a radar gun at a ballpark or batting cage.) I’ll be very interested to hear AZ’s scouting report.
I would argue that age matters a lot in the minor leagues and round and year drafted matters much less, but maybe that is a much larger discussion for another day.
(Skill/ability matters significantly more than the rest however.)
I’m in between. Obviously a minor leaguer’s age appropriateness for his league is important but I give less importance to it if a player has simply not had a chance to advance because of the age he was drafted rather than that he stalled at lower levels for several years. Copeland’s level is appropriate for his pro experience if not his age and his success so far is interesting.
On a position prospect, I would definitely agree on the age thing. Pitchers, though, are just weird, and age relative to level doesn’t seem to have nearly the predictive power as it does with hitters. It’s one of the tenets of TINSTAAPP thinking I really do agree with.
I agree with Aaron. I usually throw away the age thingy with pitchers and even more so with lefthanders
Good points Gruntosaurus. After I asked the question of what qualities do the successful soft tossers have I came up with more lefties than righties as examples. Other similarities are that they are lefties who learn to live just on or off the corners of the plate. Some that I thought of, Tudor, Moyer et al tended to be late bloomers which, if true, might indicate that someone like Copeland might end up being successful but it may be a few years and teams down the road.
If he has a really good breaking ball, I wonder if Copeland doesn’t profile more as a LOOGY in future. Great control + mediocre fastball velocity + a bit old for his level and low ceiling = relief might be the path of least resistance, perhaps. We could really do with developing some home-grown lefty relievers in any case.
I agree Gruntosaurus. While I normally agree, and was happy to see the title of this article I have to say I’m let down. To say its a senior pitching to freshmen is completely irrevelant. Think of it this way, hes a 32nd round pic to still has to face first rounders. Who cares about age? The Cardinals system is handling him very well, including how they made progress from his injury in spring training. My opinion is that now a days all people want is a quick result, but pitchers like Copeland and even Whiting, Rosenthal, Blair, etc all have a system they have to follow. Each pitcher progresses at their assessed rate by the organization in order to get the most success possible. Now if youre the cubs, you bring in new first round southpaw throwing 94-97 and you change all their mechanics and push them too far and then release them 5 years later (personal experience). I’m excited to see was azruavatar has about his stuff in the friday post.
I think you’re missing the point slightly. The main reason that age is relevant (to at least some extent) is that prospects (including pitchers) tend to do most of their growing in the early 20s. As we’ve seen a little with Joe Kelly, quite often a pitcher “is who he is” in terms of control and stuff by 22, 23. If that guy is advanced and dominating in the high minors, well and good. But it becomes a much bigger question mark if he’s not been tested at that level.
I suppose the apposite question is “is Copeland, with his current stuff, approach and control, plus some minor polish, going to succeed at higher levels?” because his stuff probably isn’t going to get better at 23 years old, with the possible exception of learning a new pitch as Jaime Garcia did – but those sort of guys are definitely the exception rather than the rule.
Jeff is certainly right to be cautious given the pitcher’s age. Baseball America’s statistics for 2009 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2009/09/minor-league-averages-2009/) gave the average pitcher’s age in Low-A as 21.7. In High-A it is 23.0, in AA it is 24.2. So to get on track age-wise, Copeland would have to start next year at Palm Beach and finish it in Springfield.
On the other hand, to reach AA in his third year as a professional would be a real achievement for a low pick. I look forward to the scouting report.
A Senior pitching to Freshmen? The question is do we hold Az to the same standard as he would Andy Van Slyke :)
The Senior/Freshman example would mean an average of 3 years older. the examples I could find showed an average league age for the Midwest league at 22 y.o. in 2007 and 21.6 y.o in 2008. Those are opening day ages which had Copeland at less than 22.8. That would put him 9 months to 1.2 years older than the average in 2011 (and I’ll bet they would).
http://mwlguide.com/years/2007/teamage.html
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/midwest_madness.php
Last year in the Appy league he was 22 in a league with an average age of 20.8 Again, less than a 1.5 year difference.
Is Copeland older than league average? Yes. Is it comparable age wise to a Senior pitching to Freshmen? Hardly. Actually closer to a Senior pitching to Juniors.
Not my byline!
Sorry my bad! It was a joke anyway.
Fair enough. I pressed that metaphor a bit there for the bang and I got the bang but was a bit off the mark.
A bit to say the least, probably by 2 years!
I think re: the age thing, I was looking at ages in certain leagues in which players would be considered prospects, not average age. Got mixed up. Sorry for the confusion.
Not to be nitpicky, but a 68.8 LOB% is actually a tad unlucky.
Wow, I’m a dope and and read that one backwards too.
Also, I know there has been a lot of interest from people here about Keith Butler. Jim Callis recently answered a question about him on a BA chat:
Jim Callis: He’s a gutty guy with more deception than stuff. He has an 88-91 mph fastball and a slow curveball. Will have to keep proving himself.
Callis might be right about Butler being a little short on stuff, but I’m going to have to disagree with his repertoire breakdown. Unless Butler has started throwing a curve just recently, his repertoire is fastball/cutter (or slider, not sure which)/changeup. No curve. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
Do you think the cutter/slider is going to be tough on lefties particularly? Again, Butler’s an interesting guy but you wonder if his best chance of success might be as a lefty specialist.
I doubt he’ll end up a left specialist, but only because he’s right-handed.
Ah. Thought he was a lefty. All of a sudden my excitement about a RHP striking guys out in the low minors with an 88mph fastball has dissipated…
Butler sets at 92-95 according to J Vuch
But Callis says 88-91? That’s a BIG difference of opinion, and it’s quite apposite to the question of whether Butler’s a proper prospect or not…
Or in other words, he’s Casey Mulligan? Meh.
Butler does not have a CURVE ball
“Think of it this way, hes a 32nd round pic to still has to face first rounders. Who cares about age?”
Awesome line.
In other news, I watched the Cards Brewers game at a Chicago bar this afternoon that is actually somewhat of a Cardinals bar with a buddy of mine who is a Brewers fan….. painful, just painful, our best defensive player with two hurtful plays…. ouch! I wish we had Craig back so he could have DHed instead of DD in the 9th.
Sadly, my team MVP of 8/3/11 for the STL Cardinals…….. C. PATTERSON?!?!?!?! REALLY???
Off topic, but has anyone heard anything on Charlie Tilson?
I read a rumour on here that his asking price is in the 1-1.5m range, probably around $1.2m, which is a bit over slot. All along it’s been suggested that he’s likely to be a deadline day signing, but AFAIK there’s generally a lot of positivity that he will sign. I wouldn’t expect to hear anything until the deadline.
I would assume if he is facing 1st rounders they are high school kids, because I am also assuming that most college 1st rounders are playing at a higher level ala Kolten Wong. That said, I would also assume that their are plenty of other lower round college draftees playing in the league also. So while I would agree that being older may narrow the window so far the progression seems appropriate.
Actually, of 25 college and juco 1st-round draftees this year, only one (#3 choice Trevor Bauer, with one single appearance at A+) is playing at a level above Quad Cities; two (one of them Kolten Wong) are at A; 6 are at lower levels; and 16 haven’t appeared in “regular” minors yet at all. For 2010 first rounders from colleges or jucos, it’s one in MLB, one at AAA, 6 at AA, 9 at A+, 4 at regular A. None are at levels below QC. Of course, most aren’t tearing up their leagues, either.
In other words, Copeland is lagging about a level behind the average first-rounder from his own draft year. This does not sound to me like a guy who’s “too old” for his level, particularly given that there may be incentive to keep him at QC for the sake of the post season.
The more I look at this guy, the more I wonder if he really might be something, after being unimpressed initially.
thats some awesome info, thanks for putting that together!
the last thing i’m going to say reguarding this is that a player cant determine where the organization puts him.. all he can do is his best to excell where he is and thats exactly what copeland has done. 2010, Appalachian League and he wins app pitcher of the year… and now 2011 in his first full season hes got impressive stats and won card nation’s july pitcher of the month. So, good for him and I hope he keeps it up.
Okay, so I guess he could be facing other college first rounders at QC this year, although since they all don’t sign and you can only have one per team probably not very many.
I would consider a 23 year old in the midwest league in his first full season differently than one who has been a pro for 5 or 6 years and at that level. too much emphasis on his age.
I have been told that Copeland’s command and secondary pitches are exceptionally good; however, his velocity is pretty low. The opinion that I heard was that he is getting batters out partly because the hitters get frustrated that they aren’t killing his pitches. Nothing says he can’t be successful, but the test will be as he moves up and is facing more consistent and patient hitters.
Copeland had over 80 innings under his belt with Illinois State winning the Missouri Valley Conference, Johnson City (Short Season) was a good fit. I listened to the Cedar Rapids game this week and the play by play guys thought there team would jump all over Copeland, 7 innings later he still had not given up a earned run, 0 walks and 6 k. Time will tell but I don’t see any reason why he would not be at Palm Beach in 2012