Kary Booher, the beat reported at the Springfield News-Leader gets the scoop yesterday from an email from John Vuch to the News-Leader that Matt Adams will stay in Springfield for the rest of the season and will not be promoted to Memphis.
Memphis players on the 40-man roster simply require at-bats, Vuch said.
“Matt’s done extremely well during his time at (Double-A), so it’s certainly not a matter of any dissatisfaction with the job he’s done,” Vuch wrote. “It’s simply that, at 22 years old and with less than 325 (at-bats) above the low-A level, there’s no need to rush him for the sake of rushing him.
Speaking of the job he’s done, Adams has certainly earned the promotion as he has hit and hit with authority since joining the Cardinals system. In three seasons so far, he has seasonal OPSes of .947, .896 and .980. He was skipped straight from Low-A Quad Cities to Double-A Springfield, skipping over High-A Palm Beach without missing a beat. To extend the metaphor, he made the beat bigger and stronger with increases in BA, OBP and SLG. Springfield and the Texas league is a hitter’s park and league, but Adams is bashing right through those barriers with a 116 wOBA+. (Which is normalized for home park and league with 100 being average.)
The best news in the story is for the Springfield Cardinals and the people of central Missouri. The fans get to see Adams continue play the rest of this year and the Cardinals get the playoff push and corresponding gate receipts and attention. Additionally, Matt Adams is only 22 (turns 23 later this month) which puts him a whole year younger than the average for the double-A leagues. For all the talk of ages and leagues yesterday, Matt Adams is certainly young for his league because he skipped Palm Beach and still having a great year in Springfield. And his year in Springfield will be whole as the Cardinals will keep him there for the rest of the season.
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This is a good move.. Adams will be in Memphis in 2012, and should hit well at that level, given the physical program he will under go in the off season..Let Adams get the at bats in AA and see him next in AAA..
I dont have a problem one way or the other because you can make a good case either keeping him at Springfield or moving him up to Memphis. The only thing i hope isnt the case is one of the main reasons they keep him in AA is so someone like Stavinoha or someone else doesn’t get cut who really has no future with the club. So as long as they just truly aren’t wanting to rush him, then its not a bad idea.
I don’t mind this, even if it is for the 40 man roster reasons. I assume he wouldn’t be ready for the majors if needed to step in on an emergency roll, so you might as well keep the “cup of coffee” guys around this year just in case something happens. I really would rather not have Kozma on the active roster, but I guess I get it. I also understand have Anderson on the roster for whenever Molina serves his suspension.
I don’t think it has anything to do with the 40 man roster as Adams will not be on the 40 man whether he is in Memphis or Springfield but it may have to do with the minor league portion of Rule V. Somebody who knows the minutia of Rule V jump in. I believe in the minor league portion of Rule V players who been under contract for a certain number of years must be on the AAA roster to be protected against selection in the minor league portion of Rule V. Adams hasn’t been under contract long enough to be exposed if left at AA. However, if Adams goes up to AAA, he might take a roster spot from another player who would then be exposed in the minor league portion of Rule V. Perhaps this is one concern on top of the feeling that it is best for Adams (given his age) to stay in AA and mash.
The only thing protecting you from the rule 5 is being on the 40 man roster (for a eligible player), however the roster does decide which phase you will be in for the rule 5 and he doesn’t need to take up a roster spot either up there or on the 40 man.
The real story is that Springfield is making a push after a difficult season and they are NOT going to let him go for that reason alone, everything else sounds good to you all and makes sense.
I don’t think he is upset,being in Springfield with Pop is a much better environment than AAA where they are so busy servicing the big club one can get lost in the shuffle this time of year.
Just the way I see it.
reply to pitch and hit: “The only thing protecting you from the rule 5 is being on the 40 man roster”
In one sense true but if one views the major league and minor league Rule V drafts as separate events, being on the AAA roster (even if not on the 40 man roster) protects a player from exposure to minor league portion of Rule V. Which is an important distinction because, to my knowledge, a player selected in the minor league portion of Rule V only has to placed on the selecting team’s 40 man roster as opposed to 25 man roster in the case of major league portion of Rule V. Feel free to correct me if I have that wrong. This may be part of the concern with keeping Adams in AA for the entire season but hard to tell as the organization in the TLR era is famous for propaganda press statements. Take them with a grain of salt. A byproduct of our organizational talent depth is trouble protecting players in Rule V. Some interesting choices have to be made after the season.
That would be from protecting a player who is eligible. Is this Adams rule 5 draft year, if not it doesn’t matter where he is, but yes it does for many others.
We are probably both agreeing on the same thing.
Will be interesting for sure.
Yes, I think we agree. It does not matter with Adams but moving him to AAA might take a AAA roster spot that could otherwise be used to protect another player who is Rule V eligible but not on the 40 man from the minor league portion of Rule V. Convoluted situation.
I understand what your saying, but my point was i think its a mistake if the organization feels Adams is ready to move up to AAA but dont want to do it because they dont want to cut ties with someone like Stavinoha. I wouldnt ever take a chance to hinder someone like Adams development for this reason. I dont believe this would be the case, but to me this would be the only scenario hypothetically speaking that would be not a good reason to keep him AA, hope i clarified my thought better because I also agree you need replacement guys like Anderson just in case something happens injury wise at the major league level.
Any chance that his shot at winning league MVP factors into the decision? If the Cardinals want to boost his confidence and/or his trade value, there are worse things to consider.
how about, if the club wants to trade matt adams at top value after re-signing pujols, the club is best-positioned if adams racks up another month or so of springfield-inflated numbers, rather than taking a chance that he stumbles on transition to AAA, and ends up closing the season with a whimper rather than a bang?
i know i’d rather shop a guy who just hit, say, 30 HR @ Springfield, hitting .325/.380/.600 all season, than a guy with a split season of .325/.380/.600 and .280/.320/.450 at memphis in a small sample size. that’s not to say that adams would put forth that line at memphis, but most lines take a pretty serious hit in the transition.
if pujols re-signs, adams is trade bait. the club is trying to make the trade case the best it can.
Yep. Other clubs are smart enough to think of this, too, of course – but Springfield is the best place to inflate a prospects value.
I really, really, really want Ryan Jackson to be for real. Obviously the glove is real – but if he could approximate his offensive production…he could be an above avg starting SS in the major leagues. Being in Springfield has given his offense a significant boost. Hopefully he’s not trying to do some kind of every other year thing:)
jackson at memphis next year
furcal in stl
erriot, somewhere else
can only dream
I completely agree. If we resign Pujols we should absolutely be shopping Adams. He could be quite valuable to an AL team and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone tried hard to pry him away.
Great news for Springfield Fans but I’m pretty sure Matt wished he would jump already. He’s doing an amazing job. Matt keep up the good work. You’re time will come. Just think, this gives you great opportunities to break records in AA.
I might by that line if Stavinoha (not on the 40 man roster) wasn’t getting so many AB’s. But since he is, I’ll just consider it typical org BS.
Well, I can’t think of a reason for Vuch to lie, so, I’m buying it.
Total BS as usual… most orgs would have already jumped Matt Adams to AAA by June with the numbers he was putting up. Other orgs also would have jumped Cox after the month he had in Jul & Jackson after his last 2 months performance. The org moves most all the players way to slow thru the system. The org isn’t going to ever be compared to the ATL Braves who for years have brought up guys to the majors at 19, 20, and 21 years old who produce.
I see it differently. Once you bring a player up, you have six years of control, two or three of them can get expensive. If you bring up a guy when he’s 20, you lose your rights to that player when he’s 26-27 years old. That’s the prime of most players’ careers. I’m not saying keep everyone in the minors until they’re 25, but I don’t see any point in rushing them unless you’re convinced he’ll be better right now than he will in six years.
Matt…. When I say jumped…. I mean to AAA not the majors…. The cards historically fart around when it comes to promoting guys up levels… ie… take their sweet time. I’m not nieve to the fact that the Cards are taking their sweet time so that when the players finally do reach the show they are 24 to 26 years old usually and that means the cards will have control of them until they are 30 to 32 years old. IMO behind the scenes this is really what is going on in regard to taking their sweet time promoting guys.
I happen to agree with the above.
Any other organization they woul dhave been either traded or on the field by now, the cards just don’t do that with young players, because they can’t afford to.
Don’t be surprised to see Cox, Adams, Jackson, Miller and a whole bunch of the current guys begin at Springfield next year, depending on who is ready in high A.
I would be very surprised if any of those start at Springfield and totally surprised if any other than Jackson did.
Then they have to clear out the AAA roster for that to happen.
Why do you say this? Why would Adams not start at AAA?
It would not surprise me if Miller, Cox & Jackson started at AA but that’s not my preference
No reason that I can think of for Adams, Miller, Cox or Jackson to start out in AA. All four have mastered that level.
If Albert leaves this winter, which I think is likely, there needs to be some trading. Some of these AAA guys may enhance a package(Hamilton, Stavi, Kozma). While I don’t think Adams or Jackson need 40 man roster protection yet, at some point next year it might be prudent to put them on so they can move up in September or earlier if required. Time to make room.
The Braves, also, have historically drafted, scouted, and developed players a lot better than we have. You seem to imply that our organization would be as good as the Braves if we simply promoted players more quickly.
Though Cox has hit better of late, where’s he going to play at Memphis? There’s no harm in allowing him to get more seasoning at Springfield. He’s had a good month; it’s not as if he’s dominated a hitter’s league. Same with Jackson. He’s hardly dominated the Texas League. He’s a decent prospect but it’s not like the organization needs to be preparing him to take over by June of next year.
Chuck agree… ATL’s org out does the Cards in development hands down….
Promoting guys to AAA has everything to do with challenging a guy…
I Don’t think that a good month or even 2 should neccesarily justify a jump in any level. These prospects are going to need playing time at the next level and i don’t think its even considered bringing a prospect along slowly if there spending just 1 year at each level. You think they should have juped cox to AAA already really after 1 good month and he is JUST now adijusting to AA ?
What I am saying is that some organizations that are thin would have already promoted these guys to AAA and the ML’s. The Florida Marlins might have even already promoted Adams to the majors by now. That’s what the Marlins did with Mike Stanton… straight from a partial season at AA to the majors..
I totally agree that Cox needs to stay at SF. He’s only JUST started hitting after a really bad start, and still hasn’t really shown any power in a left-handed heaven. He still seems a tiny bit raw, especially on defense, and has a lot to work on as a professional player. I’d start him at AA next year, too – he’s still only 22 I believe and there’s no spot for him on the major league club. I think a promotion to AAA would be downright reckless in Cox’s case.
And I definitely agree with TomS above re: Adams. He’s much more likely to end up on top-100 prospect lists if he puts up an eye-popping line and 30+ HR at AA this year, and that’s the point at which (IMO) he may be at his most valuable in a trade. If he (plus perhaps one of the 3B guys) could swing a cost-controlled SP or middle infielder, that’d be a great move for the Cardinals organisation to make.
Agree re: Cox. If he puts up numbers at AA in the first half of next year – then you put him in AAA. He should be able to dominate AA. Most of the best young pitching prospects are getting called up faster and faster. He’s in a hitters park in sort of a down time for AA pitching.
There’s a case for promoting Adams but, as some people have pointed out, the org could be trying to keep his trade value as high as possible (he’s clearly crushing Springfield, and I could definitely see him having a small slump in his first month at Memphis).
As for the other 2, I disagree with you. I’m quite high on Cox and Jackson, but I think they belong at Springfield this year. Espcially Cox, who has only 63 games at Springfield and is barely hitting above average (an .800 OPS in a hitters league and park isn’t terribly impressive for a 3rd baseman). I know he’s turned it on recently, but that’s all the more reason to leave him alone. Let him finish out the season at AA and hopefully he’ll have dragged his numbers up to where they were in PB. Then you can start him at Memphis next year with confidence. If you promote him now and he stalls, you face a very difficult decision whether or not to send him back to AA next year.
Jackson should be prepared to be the Opening Day 2013 starter and that involves a September Call up in 2012.
Agreed. He should be the everyday SS next year at Memphis (if he’s missing out on ABs because of Kozma I might pull my hair out). Hopefully he’ll have put up numbers similar to this year’s and they can put him on track to start in 2013.
Pretty sure your wOBA+ is wrong. 116 is not that far above average (16%). Pretty sure it’s in the 150s or 160s actually.
Although if wOBA+ really is normalised for home park AND league (it’s not a stat I’ve seen much before), then Adams really isn’t anything to get excited about if it’s only 116. You’d expect your 1B to be at least 16% above average with the bat, I’d have thought!
while it doesn’t seem intuitive, that’s what statcorner.com reflects. WOBA+ = 116
http://www.statcorner.com/batter.php?id=571431
per statcorner, wOBA+ = wOBA*/lgwOBA. wOBA* is park, not league, adjusted.
the reality is that matt adams just gets a huge ding for having a merely good OBP (.375) rather than exceptional (.400+).
by contrast, matt carpenter, who does not hit for much power but gets on base like a maniac, had a 119 wOBA+ at springfield.
As a Cardinal fan in Michigan who also follows the Tigers, I can say that stl promotes much more aggressively than Detroit does. for example in 2010 Castellnos was the only regular at PB who was not promoted during the season. (cruz, scruggs, garcia, carpenter, curtis, pham, swauger) In 2008 Chambers was the only non pitcher who spent the entire season at QC. Most of the rest were promoted. Other teams do not do that. It always amazes me how many on this site want promotions after one good month. Adams has been slumping as well. His avg has went from .350 to .320 in the last two weeks. What would everyone be saying now if he had been promoted two weeks ago?
It’s situational. Look at Porcello. That was extremely agressive.
I think some of the aggresive promoting will slow down under Vuch.
The only reason they move some of them out of PB so quickly is because it’s a lot more fun playing in front of 3-5K instead of a few hundred. People in springfield pay to see future players, they don’t in Jupiter. They actually could not care less going there unless for spring training.
No matter what, it’s still a business and that includes making money.