Time To Move Martinez To The Bullpen (For Now)
Posted on August 11th, 2011 by Jeff in Carlos MartinezThe Cardinals young, prized Dominican hurler, Carlos Martinez has been showing signs of wearing down as this season has worn on and I think it is time for the Cardinals to think about limiting his innings by pulling a Swagerty and putting him in the bullpen for the rest of the year.
This has been a huge year for Martinez. He finally got his work visa sorted out with the US and was allowed to begin to pitch for the Cardinals US affiliates. His first season in a new country where he does not speak much (if at all) of the language. Granted he has plenty of teammates who speak his language, but that is still quite and adjustment.
Last season in the DSL, his first outing was May 25th and his last was August 12th, pitching 59 innings on the season. This season, his first outing was May 7th and his most recent outing was August 8th, pitching 71.1 innings. That is not a huge gap so far, but against much higher competition and pressure than he faced in the Dominican Summer League. Another start with be 20 more innings than last year, then another 2 for 30+ more innings than last year. The Cardinals need to be careful with their most prized prospects and Carlos Martinez is high amongst them.
Over the last 4 starts and 16 innings, he has walked 12 batters, while striking out 15. His ratio is still on the plus side, but far removed from the 4/1 K to BB ratio he had in Quad Cities this year. His strikeouts are way down in Palm Beach and his walks are way up. Some variance in the numbers is to be expected based on moving up a level, but he is down 3 K/9 vs his QC numbers and up 2 BB/9. More disturbingly, after dominating the low-A level with an astonishingly low 2% line drive rate, he has a 24% line drive rate in Palm Beach. And those line drives are coming directly out of his groundball numbers which have dropped 20% as he moved up leagues.
Two of his last 4 starts have been less than 3 innings in length, with his first two HRs allowed on the year coming in his last two games. Jordan Swagerty has thrown roughly 10 more innings on the year and the Cardinals moved him to the pen to protect his arm going forward.
Carlos Martinez has nothing more to prove this season, he has made his presence felt in the US minor league system and proved that the hype around him was warranted. He dominated low-A as a 19 year old and then has held his own but struggled a bit in high-A despite its pitcher-friendly nature. Now, Martinez is showing signs of fatigue and the Cardinals need to control his innings and make sure he is developed and ready in 2013, 2014 and beyond.
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I don’t understand the assumption that innings at a higher level are more stressful – guys in lower levels don’t throw at 100% but at higher levels they do?
Not a huge jump in innings but I guess it depends on how his arm really feels and how his pitches are working. I don’t think you can make much of a case just on innings though.
I think that certainly a good point worth discussion, but I would say that dominating DSL is less stressful than pitching in the Midwest or Florida State Leagues.
These have been the most stressful innings he’s ever had, he’s had tons of guys on bases and in scoring position since the promotion. He’s in an odd position for sure as its the first time he’s every had consistent high leverage situation and its all coming at the time where he’s blowing past previous pitch levels.
I think you made a good case Jeff. I don’t see the downside of moving Carlos to the pen for the remainder of 2011. Another option would be a piggyback type arrangement so he gets 3 innings on regular days.
Plus he has thrown more secondary stuff than he has ever ahd to.
I think it’s more that innings against stronger competition are more stressful. The difference between QC and DSL was probably not all that much for Martinez in terms of stress on his arm per inning. However, I would imagine the innings at PB have been more stressful than those at QC.
And I don’t think it’s just because pitch counts are probably higher. Tougher competition requires that he perform at a higher level, even on a pitch by pitch basis.
Not more stressful for hitters too? Where is the call to rest them because they are performing more games at a higher level. Not buying it. It is called relativism. Each environment is equally stressful due to its context. Besides, learning to deal with stress is part of what separates those who who make it from those who don’t as much or more so than talent. We should be teaching minor leaguers to deal with it.
Absolutely true, teaching the prospects how to deal with adversity is a huge part of development.
I’m not talking about mental stress, I’m saying it’s more stressful on their bodies.
It may apply to hitters too, but keep in mind that pitchers are more injury prone to begin with.
My point is that if I go out an play ball with some elementary school kids, it probably wouldn’t tax my body as much as if I played against my peers. Similarly, I’m postulating that it is less physically taxing for an advanced player to breeze through a Low A lineup, than it would be to pitch against a team closer to his own skill level (even controlling for the number of pitches).
I completely agree, it’s not like Palm Beach is in contention for anything. Maybe only have a goal to go 5 innings for each of his last 4 starts or have him skip a turn in the rotation each time. If you turn him to the pen you can only have him throw on the days he was going to start because it’s not helpful have him being a normal reliever where he will get alot of work in in the last month and not have a stable timetable.
Good point, I’m sure they would want to keep him on a schedule with scheduled appearances and lots of side work.
I hope that language comment was not some latent xenophobic jab – I’ve heard Martinez speaks and understands a lot more English than he lets on.
No matter what its motives or accuracy, I really don’t see what it has to do with whether he has pitched too many innings. If anything, it might imply that his fatigue is mental and not physical and would tend to be evidence against the fact that he has pitched too many innings.
Jeff, I apologize if that came off sounding as an accusation. It wasn’t and since there is no edit feature I can’t change it. We just need to be careful sometimes of the assumptions we make (or maybe it wasn’t an assumption and you have some first hand knowledge). In any case, didn’t mean to come off the way it did.
No problem Cario. I didn’t mean it in a xenophobic way at all.
I just meant if I was 19 and moved to a new country that spoke a different language than I did (even if my friends spoke my language) and I lived in two different cities in that year, that would be a pretty stressful year for me.
And maybe I’m just a total OCD, anxiety-ridden basket-case and I’m projecting that on other people…. :)
This is not a fair comment, CC. The context of the comment had to do with the fact he was spending a lot of time in a foreign country for the first time and he no doubt incurred some stress. In fact, that was the reason the Cards gave for keeping him in EST. Remember the whole “getting acclimated” BS?
AND I had posted my comment before I saw your edit.
I guess the question is where does the stress factor play in the argument. I don’t doubt there is stress. I used to get head aches the first time I was in a foreign country wtih only foreign speakers. But I dont think it would have affected my pitching arm. I have never seen anyone even suggest a position player be shut down because of the stress of a new foreign environment (and they don’t have 5 – 6 days between starts).
Good point, but isn’t pitching more than just your arm?
Isn’t a lot of hitting your mental approach and concentration at the plate?
I see what you did there. Nicely done.
I’ll counter that by saying that young pitchers are at a much higher risk for serious injury (no numbers to back that up… just “gut”), so when mental lapses happen and mechanics get out of whack… injuries are more likely to occur. That would seem to be why prevention and kid gloves are more often applied to pitchers.
Did any of that make any sense?
Makes sense. but injury or no injury you never hear people talk much about increased stress for hitters as they move up or as they play in strange environments. I would think because they play nearly every day it would be more os on them than pitchers (if it exists) and would affect them much more. However, I don’t see much evidence of that,
the jump for a pitcher can be more physically stressful if he was throwing fastballs by low A hitters but getting asked to throw more breaking balls against higher competition. if he is physically exhausted, you rest him. if he is mentally tired, maybe you skip a start but i think you need to keep him going. theres no time like the present to learn how to get through a rough patch.
no one is worried about resting hitters because there is no risk of a hitter getting injured because he is tired. a day off with some time in the cage might help, but you cant bust out of a slump while riding the pine. hitters always want to be out there swinging the bat.
“young pitchers are at a much higher risk for serious injury” regardless of whether they are tired or stressed or anything else. Pitching a baseball is inherently risky.
Everybody knows pitchers are wacky……that’s why catchers are so valuable! :) Who else can talk sense to them?
Carlos lives in Palm Beach. I think, just maybe, the language “problem” isn’t one. Probably over a quarter of the population there is native Spanish-speaking. It’s not exactly St. Louis there.
Good point, maybe a reason for the “aggressive” promotion to PB.
But his family doesn’t live there and, quite frankly, it isn’t home. And, it’s not like he lives in Palm Beach every day. He travels at least half of the time living in hotels.
He’s 19. He’s allowed to be a little homesick in a new country.
Do you even know that he’s actually “homesick”? Is there some interview where Carlos Martinez has said “I’m culturally uncomfortable here in Palm Beach and it just might be affecting my pitching.”
As for your comment below – my original comment wasn’t “insensitive.” Your issue, “to be quite frank,” is apparently one created by a lack of reading comprehension. My comment addressed the OP’s speculation regarding Martinez not “speak[ing] much (if at all) of the language” and implying that his teammates spoke Spanish but not the larger community. I didn’t even mention “culture,” Dominican culture, South Florida culture, or anything in between — and I don’t assume it’s relevant anyway.
I never said he was homesick, I just said it’d be okay and understandable if he was. It was just speculation, just like the rest of the comments since nothing has actually been said on the record. It’s what happens.
Anyway, as for the quote I picked out of your comment, I don’t know how it could be taken any differently than how I took it. I’m thinking Dan in Haiti took it the same way I did….so…..
It looks to me as if you are dismissing the notion of added stress of a foreign home on him since he’s in a place where people speak Spanish.
And to be quite frank, that comment…”Probably over a quarter of the population there is native Spanish-speaking.”….is a little insensitive. Are you saying that just because people speak the same language (most of whom are quite possibly not even from the Dominican Republic) that he should just meld right in and feel comfortable?
That’s like you or I (assuming you’re a native English speaker) should feel right at home in England, Australia, Ireland, Scotland, or any other country where at least 25% of the population speaks some form of English.
I don’t think it works that way.
I’ve lived in a 3rd world culture for 3 years. believe me, the change in culture is the most difficult thing. you can’t ever be relaxed bc you don’t know if what you are doing is accepted or not. even among other spanish speaking people, there are significant cultural differences. I would guess his fatigue is more mental than anything at this point. given that, though, mixing mental fatigue with the eventual physical fatigue would make it even more difficult.
Last year Martinez pitched 59 innings, he’s just at 71, he certainly has not had a major work load. The rule of thumb is Verducci’s rule, no more than 30 for young pitchers. 5 innings for 3 more games will bring him to the end of the season, most likely with a good count, a bit more a bit less.
There is a completely different routine for starters as releivers, it can amount to even more innings per week, and if they don’t throw in a game they have to throw on the side regularly, it’s not an easy transition either. I don’t see unless he is injured why make special concessions, unless his work load has been overwhelming.
I agree with 100% with Cariocacardinal. :)
Another good question would be how many pitches has he thrown in comparison to the DSL, where he dominated? It isn’t really just increased innings that cause wear, its what he’s doing in those innings.
That is an excellent point.
I agree, is he going deep into counts?
This is why I complain about lower leagues not having pitch counts in the box scores……
It is not a stat they want you to see. Some team don’t even have it in their AA box scores.
Just so everyone knows, Carlos is worn down from this long season. But don’t put any stock whatsoever in these last starts he has or the last few he has had, the Cardinals aren’t worried, there is a reason he has gotten “tagged” recently. The Plan for Carlos next year is to start the 1st month in A-advanced and then be promoted to AA.