David Medina – Another Slugging First Baseman
Posted on August 18th, 2011 by Jeff in David Medina, tags: David MedinaThe Cardinals are quietly building up some good 1B depth in the minors and another one of those players, David Medina is playing well in Batavia.
The Cardinals signed David Medina out of the Dominican Republic in 2006 as a 17 year old kid and he made his debut with the Dominican Summer League team there that year. He then repeated the league in his age 18 season. He didn’t put up very good numbers either year with a high number of strikeouts. The DSL league numbers mean very little in the grand scheme of things and the Cardinals brought Medina up to the States and he played the next two seasons in the Gulf Coast League.
His two seasons in the Gulf Coast League were one very bad season and one good season. The second season was as good as his first was bad. He went from wRC+ of 79 to a wRC+ of 121 in his second season. His numbers were not eye-popping with a .745 OPS, but with league and park adjustment, he was significantly above average. But, yet again, the GCL is the GCL and isn’t more than instructional scrimmages with someone keeping score.
The next year, age 21, Medina was promoted to rookie level Johnson City, but he played only 20 games as he was out for around a month with an injury. But, those 20 games were glorious. He OPS’ed 1.072 for a 196 wRC+. However, Medina did walk less, but if you are tearing the cover off the ball like that, why walk? This year in Batavia, Medina has fallen back down to Earth but is still playing well with a 130 wRC+.
Putting together these four seasons, I think we can start to put together an idea of what sort of player Medina is. He is going to take a walk about 10-11% of the time while striking out 25-28% of the time and I’ll very roughly aim his slash line at 270/370/450. That’s a very good skill set, despite the huge strikeout numbers. I hate comps, but I’ll throw one out there now as those estimated David Medina numbers are a lot like Carlos Pena’s career numbers. And conveniently, they both hit left handed. At this point in his career, I would consider that a ceiling for Medina’s potential, but let’s see what he does in full season ball going forward. Medina also still hasn’t really filled out, listed at 6’3” and 162 lbs everywhere, so it is very possible he could add more power to his frame.
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I’m not concerned with Medina’s age but the problem with Medina is that he will be a minor league FA after 2012. He would have to tear up the MWL, get promoted to PB for a good part of the season and rake there and jump over Johnny Rodriguez most likely to get even consideration for the 40 man roster (which would keep him from becoming a FA).
The Cards have several Latin players at Batavia in the same boat (Ruiz, Castillo among others) as well as players like Lara (QC) who will be a FA after this season.
You’re “not concerned with Medina’s age.” Why not, out of curiosity? This is a guy who’s a year and a half older than the average player in that league, not to mention all those years in the lower ranks of pro ball (in the majority of which he didn’t really show much). One always hopes for the best, but I don’t think there’s much to see here.
David Freese was a year and half away from even being in the minors when he turned 22.
Players that are performing well despite being slightly older doesn’t concern me greatly. It is not necessarily their fault they haven’t moved up. They are doing all they can due under the circumstances – performing well. It does hold me back from getting overly excited though.
I don’t think he’s terribly old. He’s 22, just like the players we drafted who are seniors who also got sent to Batavia.
It’s not just age but professional exposure. In Freese’s case he didn’t enter pro ball until he was 23 so he didn’t have a chance to prove anything at Medina’s age. He also performed very well in his first year and at a higher level than Medina is at this year. In those cases I don’t hold anything against players who are older than their league but are also excelling. Medina has been a pro for five years and has never really excelled. I would expect him to be ahead of newly drafted players of his age.
Finally, at his age I was also 6’5″ and about 160 lbs. As much as I can relate to his body build I don’t think there’s many guys who are built like us who could hit a ball out of a major league stadium. Don’t see much promise there.
Is there a list somewhere on the web where I can find out which minor leaguers will become FA’s at the end of this season? I am not even entirely certain of the formula. I understand the 40-man rules, and the rule 5 draft, but I know that players that have already reached eligibility for the rule 5 didn’t become FA’s while remaining in the system (ie. Ottavino, DJ, etc.).
BA will publish a list in another 3-4 weeks. Draft picks signings from 2005 will be eligible if not on the 40 man roster. Latin signings is a little trickier as it depends on when in the year they signed I believe.
Brian Walton over at TheCardinalNation.com usually publishes an article on this as well every year.
And I made it a whole post without calling him “Funky Cold” Medina. That’s a win in my book.
It is, indeed, a win for avoiding that cheap throw-away reference. I applaud your restraint.
On the other hand, since he will be a minor league free agent in 2012, I think the Cardinals need to desperately a-TONE for his slow advancement and not let him re-LOC-ate to another team.
BOOOOO ! :)
Seth Maness has been promoted from Batavia to Palm Beach, tweet from Brian Walton
http://twitter.com/#!/B_Walton/status/104186606335954944