The Cardinals have struggled this year at shortstop. They’ve seen six different players accrue time at the shortstop position. Veterans Nick Punto, Ryan Theriot and now Rafael Furcal have all manned the key defensive position and farm products Pete Kozma, Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene have as well. Combined they have hit .255/.316/.330 and shown what could be generously described as porous defense.
The Cardinals will have some decisions to make as the year progresses and rosters expand in September. One such decision is whether to free Tyler Greene or not.
It’s impossible to talk about Greene without acknowledging that he’s now a 28 year old shortstop. He’s had chances to shine in the majors appearing in games in 2009, 2010 and again in 2011 for a combined major league line of .213/.303/.306 over 357 PAs. That thoroughly underwhelming line was combined with erratic defense that featured plus range but some unfortunate errors on routine plays.
For whatever reason — nerves, level of competition, etc – Greene looks like a vastly different player in the confines of Memphis and AAA. For three consecutive years he’s posted offensive statistics that are better than league average and his 1143 career PAs in AAA provide a line of .292/.370/.479 for a .849 OPS. It’s easy to brush aside numbers like that from an aged outfielder or a defensively challenged first base type. This, however, is a shortstop. This shortstop is currently hitting .337/.419/.611 with an improved walk rate and the best power output of his professional career.
I won’t make the case that Tyler Greene would set the world on fire. I’ll be the first to admit that I have prospect fatigue from the 2005 first round draft pick. I won’t even contend that he’ll be any good at shortstop in the majors. At this point, 9 games back of the Brewers, I don’t think that either of those things necessarily matter. If the possibility exists that Tyler Greene is a late bloomer or someone that needs to be in the lineup daily to see success, the Cardinals have every reason to pursue a more conclusive answer to that possibility.
Here’s three reasons why it won’t happen:
1) Rafael Furcal – The Cardinals traded Alex Castellanos for Furcal who has shown the capacity to adeptly field at short though still something of an anemic bat. The team traded for him to upgrade this season’s squad but, with an eye toward the future, there’s still some uncertainty for the 2012 shortstop position and Furcal’s potential to fulfill that. The club may be more intent on seeing what veteran Furcal has left in the tank than what Tyler Greene’s potential at age 28 may be.
2) The Rest of the Vets – One long running theme of the season has been a gaggle of middle infielders that were largely unable to differentiate themselves from one another. Playing Tyler Greene consistently at shortstop requires not only benching Furcal but reducing the playing time of guys like Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker, Daniel Descalso and Nick Punto. The ripple effect of Greene leads to benching a bunch of guys who have “put in their time” this year.
3) Utility Players – The coaching staff and front office seems more apt to view some of the prospects in the system as utility players than potential everyday players. They (and I’m not sure who exactly is making those calls) aren’t necessarily wrong. It’s not as if they’re confining a blue chip prospect to the merry-go-round of infield positions but rather guys like Descalso and, perhaps, Tyler Greene. The downside of this view for a player like Greene may be the lack of a consistent feel for his game. His defensive requirements and expectations changing on a regular basis rolling over into his offense. It’s not the wrong approach to take with prospects, but it might — just might — be the wrong approach to take with this prospect. That doesn’t mean he still won’t be utilized as a utility player.
When it’s all said and done, this September will ultimately be another insight into the club’s vision for the future. If they want a known, veteran squad moving forward, you expect more ABs to go to guys like Rafael Furcal. If you want to see what else your farm system can produce, then those ABs should be tabbed for one of the few impressive players in AAA right now.
The club has no contractual obligations to players like Ryan Theriot or Skip Schumaker moving forward. There is little need to keep them happy campers. If the team is going to evaluate it’s 2012 assets, Tyler Greene plays in September. If they want to dance with the ones that brought them (9 games out of first), expect more of the same.
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Appealing to the masses, I like it!
FREE TYLER GREENE!!!
I dunno. He lost the last shred of hope I had for him to play any meaningful role when he dropped that pop fly.
Unfortunately, Tinkering Tony will never give him consistent PAs at SS. It’d seem easy enough to give Greene all the PAs at 2B, but Tony will continue to give time to Theriot and Skip until the end. The only way TLR wouldn’t do this is if he got an edict from the Front Office to do otherwise – which we all know won’t happen.
Can’t wait until Stav gets added to the 40-man and brought up for some ML PAs! Ugh.
Banish Tony, free Tyler!
Even if they want to massage Furcal’s ego and play him at SS, so that they have the option of bringing him back for 2012, they should let Greene have the entire month of September at 2b, against both lefties and righties so that they can make a better decision on him. They know what they have or don’t have with Theriot, Schu, Descalso and Punto. Let Greene see if with 26 games/starts in September whether he can approximate what he has done at AAA. That way they would know more if his bat makes him worth considering at SS next year, or at worse a platoon mate for Schu or Descalso at 2b, and/or a superutility type player. Larussa needs to tell him he is going to play the entire month of September regardless of whatever mistakes, so that Greene can show what he can do without looking over to the dugout to see if someone is upset with him. If he does well, great, keep him and see where he fits going forward. If he can’t produce when he gets 26 starts in a row in September, then they can move him knowing that he probably would never work in St. Louis.
It is highly unlikely that the last 26 games will otherwise matter. After last night and the opportunity to lose 8 or less additional games to the Brewers through the end of August, they need to use September to see what someone like Greene can do, which will help in making decisions on guys like Schu and Furcal, assuming Punto and Theriot are gone, or can be brought back late into the winter if necessary.
isn’t the real question with tyler whether he HITS at the major league level?
to that extent, i don’t care if he appears at 2b, ss, or CF (i’d rather see him than corey patterson or allen craig, at least).
if he can hit anything like what he hits at memphis in the big leagues, he’s still probably a below-average SS, but the bat will make up for it. if he can’t make his hitting success in memphis translate, then he’s nothing more than a utility guy going forward.
I haven’t been able to understand why they play a converted outfielder in Schumaker who plays bad defense at 2nd base, and also who will likely be non-tendered in the offseason, and Ryan Theriot over giving Tyler Greene consistent playing time at 2nd base the rest of the year. They have nothing to lose by doing that.
Particularly now, being 9 games out and sliding, which was my point. See if with 26 starts in a row whether he can get over his previous yips. If yes, he could be very helpful going forward. If not, move on. I don’t think they are going to have considerable pressure, timewise or moneywise, to make decisions for next year regarding Schu, Theriot, Punto and even Furcal, and they have Descalso under control.
14 errors since going back to Memphis? In 50 games? We cry b/c of our Middle Infield defense. Yet he’s booting balls in Memphis. See what I’m getting at? His defense won’t let him get consistent AB’s. TLR won’t play him, heck I don’t know many managers that would if he’s booting balls at that rate. Consistent AB’s won’t make him field better. We see his AAA offense and we salivate, but ignore his defense?
We ignore the defense of everybody else at the major league level, why not Tyler? Ask Ryan Theriot and his sub-.700 OPS how much defense matters to the coaching staff.
I would hope Green might get a chance in September to see if he’s to be a future piece, but he also might not get a full opportunity if they want to keep evaluating Furcal as a possibility for 2012.
This speaks to the organization’s uneven approach over the past few seasons. The Cardinals supposedly made a commitment, some years ago, toward totally revamping their farm system. It is supposedly the way to go into the future for a mid-sized market team. But we’ve also continued to deal for veterans each year. It’s been an off again on again things for a while now. I realize successful organizations do both these things. But we haven’t always been so good at it. And I’m not sure the organization has always best served itself in trying to balance these things.
Some of the deals worked well– i.e. Holliday, some, not so good– Khalil Greene, DeRosa, Theriot, and this year’s iteration in July. Sometimes they talk about a “cost-control” approach, but often times act in “win now” mode.
I’m not saying it always has to be one or the other, but a major decision involving may years and many millions of dollars will soon have to be made for Pujols. Where does “cost control” start to hamper current competitiveness and when does “win now” start to hamper keeping a quality core of players over time??? We’ve reached a fork in the road. Significant decisions lie ahead.
I wonder if they even view Greene as a shortstop anymore. Hasn’t he been playing mostly 2B at Memphis? It is not only his hitting that hasn’t been good at the major league level. He is tied for the team lead in errors at Memphis with a lot fewer games than anybody else and he is supposedly comfortable there. His hitting at Memphis gives me reason to hope that with a little patience he could eventually hit at a major league level but at 28 his fielding does not appear to have shown the same improvement.
I suppose you and tom s. above have a point. I guess I was still holding out hope for somebody — ANYBODY– to play shortstop. Except for the brief time of B Ryan (until he was found to like coloring with his crayons outside the lines by the other kids), I’ve been waiting since the Age of Renteria (somewhere between the Ordovician and Silurian Eras) for a player to man the shortstop position in St Louis. I was still thinking about Greene in terms of that position. But, indeed, my hopes may be clouding the picture. I suppose that window of opportunity may already be closed.
I find it amazing how fans keep getting fooled by his PCL inflated numbers Tyler has a .372/.471/.744/1.215 line with 9 pf 12 HR and half his hits going for XBH on the road. The last 4 road series for Memphis have come in Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Reno and Round Rock and just about every player on the team is raking now because of it.
Memphis H vs A Splits 2011:
.818 vs 1.215 for Tyler Greene
.722 vs 1.179 for Mark Hamilton
.636 vs .883 for Bryan Anderson
.812 vs .957 for Matt Carpenter
.748 vs 972 for Andrew Brown
Nick Stavinoha has his .350 with 5 HR over the last 4 series is is heading for a 30-100 season despite a godawful start thanks to the PCL Ankiel hit a HR every 12.16 times there in 2007 despite playing half his games in the fair park in Memphis he’s been at 24.22 in the majors.
Not trying to be rude but why do some people just lose their minds over guys raking in hitters leagues and some how think its going to carry over to the majors? Here is the poster boy for these parks…..
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood–002ric
for someone who doesn’t try to be rude, you sure succeed a lot.
azru pointed out that greene was hitting above league average – which takes into account the hitting environment of the PCL. he also said, “I won’t make the case that Tyler Greene would set the world on fire.” i’m not sure why you are caricaturing a simple statement that it might be worth calling greene up and seeing if he can hit in the majors as “being fooled by” stats from hitter’s parks and “losing [one's] mind.”
this schtick is becoming old very quickly.
Its only rude to people because you and a few others here are too caught up in total B&W numbers and could care less how they get there. Most of that group somehow thinks players will magically carry over those inflated stats majors which is laughable, I’m sorry it is there are no parks in the majors like Colorado Springs, Reno and Albuquerque and the pitching is light years better.
He has no defense at all tied for the Memphis in errors in 62 less games, he’s 28 now and will be 29 before end of next season and he has a .609 OPS helped by 6 IBB in over 350 MLB PA. Does crushing in extreme hitters park erase all those facts?
nobody thinks or has argued he will “magically carry over inflated stats.” if you can’t hear in your statement why dismissing someone else’s opinion as relying on “magic” is rude, i don’t know what to say.
greene is a flawed player, and there’s nothing about this post that suggests that he’s not. azru wrote a very measured, thoughtful piece about tyler, which noted his limitations and the reasons to be discouraged about him (age, defensive liabilities, limited success in the majors):
“I won’t even contend that he’ll be any good at shortstop in the majors. At this point, 9 games back of the Brewers, I don’t think that either of those things necessarily matter. If the possibility exists that Tyler Greene is a late bloomer or someone that needs to be in the lineup daily to see success, the Cardinals have every reason to pursue a more conclusive answer to that possibility.”
recognizing the nuance here would apparently detract from your smartest-guy-in-the-room posting. azru acknowledged all the factors you point to in his article.
i don’t have great hope for tyler succeeding in the majors. i think he’s failed to succeed in pretty substantial opportunities, and i suspect it is much more likely he is a perennial AAAA player now. but i believe, and i think the point of the article was, there is almost no risk to playing greene over theriot and schumaker in september. if he succeeds, great; if not, we know we have just a utility player going forward.
if you read this article and saw a cheering-section piece for tyler greene, then you need to read it again.
I think that what some are seeing as you being rude is you are jumping all over posters who merely what to see Greene get a full blown shot during the wind down of the season before he is written off.
In 2009 he got 108 AB’s in 48 games: in 2010 he got 104 AB’s in 44 games: and this season he got 102 AB’s in 51 games….all roughly 2 AB’s per game, hardly a full blown opportunity.
Again if he got 100 to 125 AB’s in the last 26 games of the season during September, since the Cards are out of the race, then I think everyone could make a better decision on him.
Your facts never account for his track record of adjusting slowly to each level and then playing relaxed and letting his talent take over. If you saw him play in STL you could tell he played tight and nervous, youcould easily see that he wasn’t comfortable playing on the big stage. That doesn’t mean he can never make it just that he needs to get over it and just relax.
No it’s rude because it’s rude. Check your e-mail. It’s wearing thin.
Damn imhagine the numbers these guys would put up if they didn’t play at Memphis! Of course Tyler Greene does play in Memphis and is still the best hitting SS in the league by far.
So Adams should be discounted because he plays half his games in a hitter’s park yet Greene should be discounted because he plays half in games in a non hitters park? I’d like to say I get it but I don’t.
My post has very little to do with what azruavatar wrote, its directed to the ever growing “Free Tyler Greene” movement on the various Cards fan boards.
This is Future Redbirds, a prospect blog, not a random fan message board. It has a readership and regulars who comment, and when you post here, that is the audience to which you are talking. When you post a response to a post, it is exactly that–a response directed to that post.
If you have a crusade not directed at this blog, its writers, and its readership, I suggest you take it to the audience to which it is directed. It only makes sense to do so.
+1
A comment on park factors and home/away splits. This was an argument that was applied to Matt Holliday in Colorado and is often applied to people in various parks. Hitting in a hitter’s park does not mean you cannot still be a great hitter — it just means you have to adjust the expectations for a player’s stat line. You have to look at things relative to the league and park.
Tyler Greene has a .449 wOBA per Statcorner’s version of that stat. After adjusting for park (which means you RAISE his Memphis stats not just lower all the other stats), he’s 27% better than average. Tyler Greene is hitting well in Memphis, arguments to the contrary are flawed.
it seems to me that the substantive argument against tyler greene is not that he’s not hitting well or that park factors destroy all his value, but that he’s hitting well as a 28-year-old.
sort the b-r numbers for OPS in the PCL, and you get a big mess of guys at the top pushing 30 who are perennial AAAA hittters.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=2b849127
wily mo pena, cody ransom, josh fields, ryan langerhans, brian barden, etc.
you also see some young, interesting prospects aged 25 or younger (lawrie, carp, belt, brett jackson), but almost nobody who is 27, 28, 29 and not a perennial AAAA player. that doesn’t prove definitively that tyler won’t make the jump, but it doesn’t make me feel good about his chances. the only guys i can think of who’ve made that jump at such a late age would be guys like david freese who started late to begin with.
There is a lesson from Brendan Ryan. Ryan only got called up in 2007 because Eckstein was hurt. After he did surprisingly well, the Cards went with the horrid Cesar Izturis in 2008. In 2009, we traded for Khalil Greene, who turned out to be a mental case. Ryan got to play again, well, and this earned him a chance to be the regular in 2010. He had a really bad year at the plate and a good year in the field, during 2010.
The point of this history is its relevance to Tyler Greene. Greene has hit better than Ryan in the minors, on an OPS basis. But he did not get the lucky opportunity to move up to replace an injured vet that Brendan Ryan got during 2007 and 2009. Only by playing semi-regularly will many guys get comfortable in the majors and harness their abilities. Greene is not as bad as he has seemed in limited play in the majors, where he has looked like an uptight idiot sometimes. He has not stepped up and grabbed the starting job, which is what TLR was probably looking for, out of him.
If the Cards drop even further back, Greene should get a September audition as everyday SS, to find out what he can do on a ML stage.
true
it is in fact a multi-million dollar decision to find out of he can play well enough to remain on the 40 man roster
in fact, why will klohse and westie make every remaining start? this last month is a much better proving ground than spring training, and they really need to take advantage of it with several players, including greene (but not stav).
Its time to see what Greene can do as a full time starter…We have nothing to lose at this point in time..
It’s not like affording Greene PT will mandate the benching of Ozzie or Tulo. The current punchless Cards are in a meltdown and are limping to higher draft choices each dreary game. It may well be that Greene’s splits cast doubt on his abilities. It is a certainty, however, that the current alternatives are no better and have less upside. Play TG in the Bigs now, and then reach a (somewhat) more informed decision for next season.
I spit up a little the first time I heard Tony suggest that Greene should play some centerfield… But, I’m starting to wonder if he hasn’t been miscast all along. The guy has speed and a strong arm and we know he can hit in the minors. Just wondering if there is enough time to play him in center to see if that might not work. Then maybe let him play some winter ball.
I’m probably as convinced as LaRussa that he isn’t ever gonna be a major league SS.
I was thinking the same thing. If TLR wants a RH CF so bad that he’s playing Craig there, why not give Greene a shot? Isn’t he still one of the fastest guys on the 40-man roster?
Ben Zobrist sound familier? Struggled his first couple of years being called up and getting sporadic ab’s. Got full time ab’s at the age of 28 and had a break out year. Not giving Tyler full time ab’s for the rest of this season would be silly, we have nothing to lose. However, with TLR at the helm it won’t be the first silly move made.
At present Cards have 10 prospects 26-27-28-yr olds who will be free to fly away after next year. Can’t keep these guys in minors forever. I don’t see any reason in keeping these guys in AAA . Let them have a chance to play somewhere-please’
IllinoisCardinalFan: Greene has been playing SS nearly every day at Memphis; Kozma has played 2B.
September line-up : Chambers-OF Greene-OF Swauger-OF 3B-Carpender SS-Jackson 2B-Jose Garcia 1B-Adams C-Charles Cutler C-Steven Hill SUBS.-Jamie Curtis and Zack Cox Extras- Brown-OF Stavinoha-1B Craig and Jay make 15.
Phillies-Braves Think Milwaukee-Arizona-San Fran: Pitching, Pitching Pitching : 80 % of baseball makes good defense-pitching. Speed never goes in a slump and when I see 10 games lost because Cards don’t practice running in practice or just can’t . Pitching , Pitching, Pitching – Lost 3 relief pitchers in August and Wain before 1st pitch. Pitching, pitching, pitching.
If running helps pitchers get in the 8th inning let’s start running & forget the batting practice. Great pitching makes the other eight players look great cause the pressure is off. Please run, bunt, pitch and let the kids use muscle memory-it works..
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