Since this week is apparently lefty starter week in my brain, let’s take a closer look at another older prospect who also was added through the 2010 draft in Ryan Copeland.
The Cardinals drafted 22 year old Ryan Copeland as a senior out of Illinois State and put him in Johnson City last year and he starred with a 6.8 K/BB ratio (8.1 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9). He allowed less than 1 walk or hit per inning. Looking at those numbers and as a college senior, he should have probably been better off being challenged at Batavia instead, but I’m not privy to those sorts of decisions within the Cardinals organization.
This year, the Cardinals yet again, didn’t push Copeland, instead opting to send him to Quad Cities instead of Palm Beach. And yet again, Copeland has dominated. His K/9 has passed over that magical threshold arriving at 9.0. And just like JC, his control stayed sound with a 1.5 BB/9 for a healthy 6.0 K/BB ratio. Copeland’s 124 tRA+ indicates just what the other number bear out, that he is clearly above average for the league.
Now, scouting at home, but without a radar gun, Copeland looks like does not throw particularly hard, but as his numbers indicate, he has great control. I would love to see the Cardinals start Copeland out at Palm Beach next year with earmarks to promote him to Springfield, because the young kids at Johnson City and Quad Cities are overwhelmed by Copeland. Right now, he is putting up some good numbers, but let’s reserve judgment on his long term viability until he faces some tougher competition.
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sounds right to me. if the pitching depth in the low minors wasn’t quite so preposterously good, he probably would have moved further faster.
as we wind down the minor league seasons, it might be interesting to see some prognostication on what the different levels’ rotations will look like to start 2012.
Thanks for these reports on the second tier prospects. Copeland’s control looked outstanding in the video with the pitches all around the corner of the plate. Since we have so few lefties in the organization but some who are succeeding at their level (Gast, Lyons, Copeland, Wright, Freeman) it’d be nice to hear some prospect comparisons from some people who have see some or all of them or know about their stuff.
Only Gast of those mentioned has a significant positve lefty split. (wright has been so good it doesn’t matter!). Copeland also doesn’t and neither does Ferrara. Nick Greenwood does and possible our best loogy candidate is Nazario who has held lefties this year to a .038 BAA.
Danial Calhoun also has a good lefty split at PB with a 19:1 K:BB ratio and a WHIP of 0.67 against lefties. He’s done pretty well everywhere he’s been but he’s been old for his league everywhere as well.
Good to hear about the potential LOOGY list. There isn’t a baseball rule I’m not aware of that dictates a LOOGY has to be 38 year old, or anything, is there?? With all the LOOGY trouble St Louis has had the past few years it might be kinda nice to see one of these guys get a chance pretty soon. I’ve got nothing against Dennys Reyes, T Miller, or A Rhodes, mind you. But maybe it’d be nice to have a LOOGY that could actually see past his belly to his toes on the pitching, or maybe have a LOOGY that wasn’t in his prime during the Carter Administration.
“his toes on the pitching rubber …” OK, I’ll quit.
LOOGY rule: Must have been Jamie Moyer’s baby sitter at some point. . . .
Also can add Edwards to the LOOGY candidate that actually has a good lefty split.
Today was my first time seeing Edwards pitch. He looked very good today, has good stuff.
So is our lefty starters pecking order Gast, Lyons, Copeland, Hald? According to the baseball draft report Gast was the 13th best left hander in the 2010 draft, Hald was rated as the 32 and Lyons was listed at 42.
As this is futureredbirds I am sure you intentionally left Rzepczynski off the list because he is on the 25 man roster. Jackson’s rotation spot should be up for grabs next season and McClellan may have a difficult time reclaiming it. Rzepczynski and Lynn might end up battling it out for that rotation slot.
Wainwright has a shot too
Unless he takes Carpenter’s spot :).
True. $20 million to Lohse and Westbrook is pretty depressing.
Does Westbrook have no trade protection like Lohse? Any hope that another team would even be willing to trade for him during the offseason if the Cards ask for little in return?
Westbrook has a full no trade clause.
Why do the Cardinals keep tying themselves to pitchers with mediocre track records? Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue with signing mid-level starters, but I have a serious issue with giving them all no-trade protection. Maybe this year we can give Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker full no-trade protection.
I put him in Carp’s spot. I think the Cards don’t commit that kind of money to Carp until Albert is signed … and we know that will won’t happen quickly. So Carp’s option will be declined and he will sign elsewhere.
can’t forget hector hernandez in batavia
Here is what I have on the rotations for next year (sorry for any typos):
Memphis:
Barndon Dickson
Nick Additon
Mikel Cleto
Shelby Miller
John Gast/Deryk Hooker
Springfield:
Joe Kelly
Carlos Martinez
Jordan Swagerty
Kevin Siegrist
Michael Blazek/Richard Castillo
Palm Beach
Anthony Ferrara
Trevor Rosenthal
Boone Whiting
Ryan Copeland
Seth Blair/Zach Russell
The reason I listed 6 for each is due to potential injuries and I am sure there are one or two guys comming back from injury I may have missed, but that is what I think. Note I left Ottivano and a few of our other stalled prospects out figuring they would lose their spot.
Not a bad list.
I don’t think Hooker will be ready for AAA. He hasn’t really shown himself ready for AA.
Mixed feelings about whether they will let Shelby start at AA. The recent incidents may cast maturity and attitude questions over that move even if the arm is ready.
I think it is even less likely Martinez starts at AA. He will probably be there by June though.
Don’t forget, PB uses a six man rotation.
Plenty of filler available though. Neito, Ottavino, Broderick, Gorgon (if healthy).
Always curious about the potential to move a reliever to the rotation. Justin Wright would be a guy I’d like to see get that shot next year.
I agree with the sentiment that Carlos should at least start in PB next season. His body wasn’t ready for a full season this year. We still need to go gentle with him in 2012 IMHO.
Flavor-of-the-day Lyons not even filler? :sad face:
No Tyler Lyons???
Yes, I was talking about minor league left handed starter prospects, not the major league staff if we have to still consider Lohse and Westbrooke to be major leaguers.
You would hope that Ottavino would go the other way. To the bullpen that is. Doesn’t he still have more are than Dickson or Additon?
i’m with you on otto to the pen
Copeland’s delivery puts me in mind of Sid Fernandez for some reason, but I can’t find any video offhand of Fernandez pitching to check my memory.
I just checked out that video of Quad Cities above and of Copeland. I can see why he might put a person in mind of Fernandez. The simple but slightly unorthodox pitching motion with a hesitation at the principle moment, followed by a quick flinging motion toward the plate. He’s not nearly as girthy as El Cid, but the bill of his cap looks like it’s always slightly off to one side (even though it probably isn’t). Fernandez cap looked like that too.
Daniel Bibona should get a look as high as Palm Beach next year if he snaps back in.
I don’t think Lyons can be discounted either.
Even though Bibona did well in Quad Cities in 09 after missing a year he’s going have to start at QC. Not fair to jump him to Palm Beach after a year of not playing.
Jeff,
Thanks for The Information. Didn’t even know that video was out there.