Following are the top 5 leaders in our farm system for players who qualified with at least 200 at-bats in their respective league. For a summary on what wRC+ is, click here for further reading.
Pacific Coast League
First Base, Mark Hamilton: wRC+ of 136 (6th Place out of 32 qualifiers…ok, I already cheated)
Slash line: .352/.442/.486
Positives: Good patience, BB% ranks top 20 in PCL. K% of 13.9% is over 10% drop from career norm in upper levels. Line drive rate produces high average.
Negatives: Position. Lack of home run power this season, which is even more troubling from a bat that didn’t project plus power at first base. Slight age concern.
Shorstop, Tyler Greene: wRC+ of 166 (1st place out of 28 qualifiers)
Slash line: .338/.425/.630
Positives: Plus power at position, ISO ranks 4th of all PCL hitters. Above average speed with good instincts (24 SB, 1 CS). Average-to-above average patience. Good range at shortstop.
Negatives: Age. Struggled when given MLB at-bats. High K% of 25.4% leads to doubt about being able to translate numbers to major-league level. BABIP of .423 is unsustainable.
Texas League
Catcher, Audry Perez: wRC+ of 81 (5th place out 8 qualifiers)
Slash line: .261/.279/.430
Positives: Age appropriate. Above average power for catcher with ISO of .169. Low K rate and has decreased K% upon promotion to each level (20.6, 17.8, 14.8, 11.9). Good defensively behind the plate.
Negatives: Very little patience. Inconsistent caught stealing ratio behind plate at high-A and AA, but that’s nitpicking at this point. Will have to produce higher average if patience doesn’t develop.
First Base, Matt Adams: wRC+ of 146 (2nd place out of 12 qualifiers)
Slash line: .314/.373/.594
Positives: Line drive stroke leads to high average. Plus power. Age appropriate. ISO ranks first of all Texas League hitters. Low K% for the power he projects.
Negatives: Positional concern will always follow first baseman through the minors. Below average patience for position.
Second Base, Eric Duncan: wRC+ of 118 (4th place out of 14 qualifiers)
Slash line: .271/.320/.526
Positives: Above average power for 2011. Can play multiple positions.
Negatives: Too old for AA. Below average patience. Power numbers this season are not in line with rest of career in minors (hasn’t posted a slugging percentage above .400 since 2006 in the Eastern League). BABIP of .281 falls roughly in line with career numbers.
Second Base, Jose Garcia: wRC+ of 113 (5th place out of 14 qualifiers)
Slash line: .312/.369/.400
Positives: Above average speed. Can play all infield positions. Age appropriate. K% of 15.7% is good for level.
Negatives: BABIP of .370 is unsustainable and has only produced a BABIP of .300+ once with at least 100 at-bats on any level. Low patience. Little projectable power.
Shorstop, Ryan Jackson: wRC+ of 102 (3rd place out of 12 qualifiers)
Slash line: .280/.340/.418
Positives: Above average range. Average patience. Average-to-slightly above average strikeout rate. BABIP of .317 indicates batting average not driven by luck. Slightly above average power for position in Texas League and has increased ISO through each level (.024, .076, .102, .140). Age appropriate.
Negatives: Doesn’t project to be anything better than average in any offensive category. Below average speed at position.
Third Base, Zack Cox: wRC+ of 118 (3rd place out of 11 qualifiers)
Slash line: .316/.382/.461
Positives: Line drive rate will lead to high average. Average-to-slightly above average strikeout rate. Proven ability to improve after consistent playing time at each level. Age appropriate.
Negatives: Projected power has yet to develop (though has shown significant bump since July). Questions defensively.
Florida State League
First Base, Xavier Scruggs: wRC+ of 127 (4th place out of 21 qualifiers)
Slash line: .258/.341/.481
Positives: ISO of .223 shows above average power.
Negatives: Too old for level. Very high K% of 26.1% proves that he will have hard time maintaining a good batting average. Position concern. Slightly below average patience.
Second Base, Greg Garcia: wRC+ 120 (4th place out of 18 qualifiers)
Slash line: .272/.381/.395
Positives: Age appropriate. Very good patience. Above average K% for level. BABIP of .331 is somewhat sustainable with line drive rate.
Negatives: Inconsistent speed on the base paths. Average power can be considered a positive but will have to increase it slightly with mediocre speed at position.
Midwest League
Third base, Jonathan Rodriguez: wRC+ of 135 (6th place out of 28 qualifiers….yes, I cheated again, but he was 2 points behind 5th place)
Slash line: .240/.378/.451
Positives: Age appropriate. Above average power. Plus patience, BB% of 15.6% ranks 4th of all hitters in Midwest League.
Negatives: Relatively high K% of 22.7% will have to come down as .240 batting average has suffered from strikeout rate and a slightly below average BABIP of .281.
Outfield, Oscar Taveras: wRC+ of 173 (tied for 1st place out of 69 qualifiers)
Slash line: .371/.435/.561
Positives: Young for Midwest League. Plus gap power with potential to add more home run power. Short, line drive stoke and good bat speed has led to a very high batting average with a low K% (16.2%) for his age and level.
Negatives: Defensive concerns that can improve with experience. High BABIP of .421 will come down, despite line drive rate. Patience (BB% of 9.8%) will need to improve. SB:CS ratio of 19:13 in minor league career indicates bad decisions on the base path, but that’s another aspect that can easily improve with age.
For reference, the following players are top 5 in the Appalachian League for wRC+:
Tyler Rahmatulla, 2nd base (1st): 152; leading by 22 points
Matt Williams, shortstop (1st): 139, leading by 29 points
Roberto De La Cruz, 3rd base (3rd): 123
Anthony Garcia, outfield (2nd): 151
Please note that all statistics were compiled on August 24th
Entries (RSS)
Do you not consider Curtis a 2B? I do, even though he listed as a 3B. He’d also qualify there though also wouldn’t he?
I went solely off of what fangraphs had them listed. I think all of the players I listed at each position have played the most games there, outside of Eric Duncan, who has played exactly 32 in the outfield, 2nd base, and 3rd base. I consider Curtis more of a UTIL guy, despite the number of games played in the past couple years at 2nd base. He has a wRC+ of 128, which would put him 8th in outfielders, 2nd for second basemen, and 3rd for third basemen.
Aren’t errors a concern for Greene? I do think his speed is overlooked. Great SB ratio. If the big league club actually values speed?
Also, isn’t average offense for Jackson really a plus. I thought the book on him was that if he could just be average offensively that he had the glove to make it to the majors. So I don’t know that we should turn the fact that he has improved offensively into a negative.
It was odd to put that as a negative, but there have been some people who have tended to overvalue his offense. However, if he can provide just league average offense, he’ll be very valuable to a team that hasn’t been able to develop a shortstop.
Any player that could be league average in the middle infield would be extremely valuable even with mediocre defense.
As I’ve said on here in the past, the fact that Ryan Jackson looks like he may be able to provide even league average offense would make him very valuable to the Cardinals. The only reason I put his offense as a negative is to temper expectations about the fact that the absolute best he looks to achieve in any offensive category is average.
do you think elvis andrus is a good comp for jackson’s upside?
I generally don’t like player comps, but Andrus has plus speed and Jackson has more pop in his bat. I’d be hesitant to try to find a comparison for Jackson, but a very lazy comp offensively is Alexei Ramirez with better patience and less speed.
Hard to say Jackson has more pop at this point. Through there age 22 seasons there pop was similar though Andrus’ was at the major league level and Jackson’s at the minor league level. It wasn’t until Jackson’s age 23 season when, in a hitter friendly park, he showed much pop. Andrus hasn’t even played his age 23 year old season yet!
Jackson has more gap power. Andrus’s ISO declined upon promotion to each level (.097, .091, .073, .073) and has shown very little power in the most hitter friendly park in baseball. Jackson, on the other hand, has improved upon each level and is showing increased power this season, despite playing in a more hitter friendly park. I don’t think any national ranking service ever saw Andrus developing a lot of power, even though his speed alone would increase the amount of doubles. Neither player has above average power, but Jackson has the slight upper hand.
Great analysis, and thanks for doing the research.
Couple of thoughts:
1. If Tyler Greene were a center fielder, wouldn’t he at least be a platoon option w. Jay by now? And he’d certainly be the first option as a pinch runner (not that TLR uses many pinch runners, but still …).
2. More and more, I think of Cox as a future corner outfielder. Freese looks like he could be a fixture at 3rd, something I never would’ve guessed before recently. And Cox reportedly has enough arm to play right field. He could throw 90+ as a pitcher at Arkansas his freshman season.
3. Jackson looks like he could be a solid MLB shortstop, but I hope the Cards make a serious effort to get the best shortstop they can this offseason. With a good shortstop this year (above-average offense and defense) the Cards could at least be in the wild card race. It’s become our position of death. The plays not made and the hits not gotten give our opponents extra outs and make every game closer than it should be. I would trade just about any tradable asset in the organization, other than Miller or Taveras, for the right shortstop.
I think the most logical situation regarding Greene is giving him full playing time at 2nd base over Schumaker or Theriot. It’s irresponsible for them to continue giving a converted outfielder who will never even post mediocre defensive numbers playing time there. Schumaker is also a prime candidate to be non-tendered in the offseason because of the raise he’s due in arbitration. I’m far from convinced Greene can play full-time in the majors, but there’s no point in not putting him in there for the rest of the season.
The 3rd base situation is going to be very interesting over the next year or so with Matt Carpenter and Cox being MLB ready sometime next season. I’m more in the line that the Cardinals would be more willing to trade Freese than converting Cox to the outfield.
I honestly think a healthy Furcal could be a decent 1-year bridge to Ryan Jackson. That position has definitely been a sore spot for the Cardinals in recent years. I miss Renteria in his prime.
I myself am becoming more and more comfortable with Cox staying at 3rd. don’t have the numbers but it seems that since he made a conscious effort to seek help with his defense about the middle of the season, his error occurrence has improved. if anyone has stat’s on that it would be appreciated. if Cox…..or Carpenter can stay at 3rd, (and I think both could) then Freese becomes a very tradeable commodity. maybe to get a CF, though the options for trade for CF’s is slim, even more so as FA. I think Dexter Fowler could be an option. I don’t see Jay as a long term option. I also am pumped over Curtis, I think he could be a good RH utility player in a few years.
I would be both very surprised and very pleased if Curtis could continue these numbers at even Memphis, let alone the majors. His ISO SLG% was about .070 over the 2009 and 2010 season. Almost no amount of OBP can make up for that unless you are also a fielding whiz.
Curtis’s 2009 at Palm Beach was destroyed by a .227 BABIP. His limited time at QC early that year was awesome with a .414 wOBA*. In 2010 at Palm Beach, he had a wOBA+ of 111, which is decent. Anyone with a 37/29 BB/K ratio in their age 23 season at Double A is at least interesting.
To me, he’s a RH-hitting Daniel Descalso type (note that I’m not a huge DD fan).
The BABIP would not affect the ISO SLG%. The ISO is only in reference to how much power he showed for the hits he did get.
Yes, I know how to calculate ISO. My point wasn’t disputing his ISO calculation, though your numbers from 2009-2010 are cherry-picked to make a point. Neither his 2008 nor 2011 numbers show the same pattern.
I don’t think that is the case with Cox’s defense. I have read scouting reports written after the minor league all star break or not too long ago that are still skeptical about his ability to even be an average defensive 3rd baseman.
I think your right though i would geuss freese is the one that will probably be traded and he could be a pretty decent chip in a package for a SS or 2nd baseman mabye ?
Not sure if anyone saw but John Sickels did a little write up on Matt Adams today….
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/8/29/2391313/minor-league-notes-august-29-2011#storyjump
This is the kind of thing that makes this prospect geek hyperventilate. Thanks!
You all are talking about Cox to the Outfield, trading Freese, etc. … What about Cox playing 2B? His bat seems to be ideal for the position and a left-handed bat there to compliment Freese would be a huge plus.
For anyone who has seen Cox play (I have not,) does he have the agility, footwork, etc., needed to develop into solid 2B? A good example of this recently is Neil Walker. I heard them talking on a Cardinal / Pirate game over the weekend about Walker moving from 3B to 2B. From everything I’ve read about Cox, that seems like a reasonable comp.
I believe we traded Wong to handle 2b long term, wouldn’t make much since to convert Cox and then have no where for Wong to play.